{"id":197972,"date":"2007-12-27T17:37:00","date_gmt":"2007-12-27T22:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2007\/12\/27\/economic-update-6\/"},"modified":"2007-12-27T17:37:00","modified_gmt":"2007-12-27T22:37:00","slug":"economic-update-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2007\/12\/27\/economic-update-6\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nouriel Roubini sees the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rgemonitor.com\/blog\/roubini\/234306\">following signs of an upcoming recession<\/a> (I consider them to be signs of a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">current<\/span> recession, but I&#8217;m not an economist):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Initial unemployment claims at 2001 recession level.<\/li>\n<li>Durable and capital goods orders falling.<\/li>\n<li>Consumer confidence down.<\/li>\n<li>Oil prices closer to $100 than to $90\/bbl.<\/li>\n<li>Retail sales falling after accounting for inflation.<\/li>\n<li>Residential real estate going down, and accellerating.<\/li>\n<li>Commercial real estate starting down (more below).<\/li>\n<li>Various leading indicators falling, as are corporate earnings.<\/li>\n<li>Credit markets not only staying seized up, but getting <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">even more<\/span> seized up. (Dr. Roubins bullet points this out into about 5-7 items)<\/li>\n<li>Unstable world environment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In terms of more specific news, we have <a href=\"http:\/\/biz.yahoo.com\/ap\/071227\/apfn_mortgage_applications.html\">mortgage applications falling off a cliff<\/a>, despite a rate cut, Fitch saying that it may <a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/feeds\/ap\/2007\/12\/26\/ap4475345.html\">downgrade residential mortgage backed securities<\/a> (RMBS) because the insurers for these bonds are basically insolvent, Goldman-Sachs is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601103&amp;sid=a6ct_FUaCo5Q&amp;refer=news\">predicting that Citigroup may be forced to cut its divident (implying that there is more bad news to come)<\/a>, the Chinese Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2007\/12\/27\/news\/international\/bc.apfn.as.fin.china.us.dollar.ap\/index.htm?postversion=2007122707\">saying that the US should not cut rates any more because it will &#8220;hammer&#8221; the dollar<\/a>, there is increasing evidence that <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB119862576458749597.html\">commercial real estate is starting to tank too<\/a> (It typically lags residential real estate by about \u00bd year), and residential real estate prices have <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2007\/12\/26\/real_estate\/Case_Shiller_down\/index.htm?cnn=yes\">fall by 6.7% year over year<\/a> (and at about an <b>11.7% rate<\/b> for the past quarter).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nouriel Roubini sees the following signs of an upcoming recession (I consider them to be signs of a current recession, but I&#8217;m not an economist): Initial unemployment claims at 2001 recession level. Durable and capital goods orders falling. Consumer confidence down. Oil prices closer to $100 than to $90\/bbl. Retail sales falling after accounting for &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1261,970,973,1265,978],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-197972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bubble","category-corruption","category-economy","category-housing-crash","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197972"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=197972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197972\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=197972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=197972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=197972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}