{"id":198603,"date":"2007-10-25T21:52:00","date_gmt":"2007-10-26T02:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2007\/10\/25\/nouriel-roubini-is-a-fing-genius\/"},"modified":"2007-10-25T21:52:00","modified_gmt":"2007-10-26T02:52:00","slug":"nouriel-roubini-is-a-fing-genius","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2007\/10\/25\/nouriel-roubini-is-a-fing-genius\/","title":{"rendered":"Nouriel Roubini is a F&#038;^%ing Genius"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dr. Roubini <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rgemonitor.com\/blog\/roubini\/222636\">reminisces aboutr how he was thought a lunatic<\/a> in his latest blog post.  A governor of the Chilean central bank commented &#8220;<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Usually at this kind of meetings I used to hear that the views of Nouriel Roubini about an impending financial and real hard landing are from the Moon. But this year there are plenty of \u201clunatics\u201d around!<\/span>&#8220;<\/p>\n<p>Just so you know, these were the good doctors predictions form a year ago:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The  U.S. would experience its worst housing recession in decades;<\/li>\n<li>home prices would follow sharply (at least 20% in the next  few years);<\/li>\n<li>the housing troubles would start in the sub-prime mortgage market and lead to move severe problems and a credit crunch in broader mortgage and credit markets;<\/li>\n<li>housing woes would spillover to the rest of the economy and to other components of demand  &#8211; including consumption &#8211; via a variety of channels;<\/li>\n<li>multiple bearish factors (housing slump, credit crunch, spillovers of housing to other sectors, high oil prices) would lead to a hard landing of the economy in 2007;<\/li>\n<li>the world would not decouple from such a U.S. hard landing. <\/li>\n<li>Needless to say Nouriel Roubini is a f&amp;^%ing genius, I should also note that I&#8217;ve been predicting this since 2003 on the Stellar Parthenon discussion board.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I would also note, that I have been predicting much the same since before December 2003, and additionally, I&#8217;ve been commenting on the downward pressure on the dollar, which I believe will lead to sever (double digit) inflation, though <a href=\"http:\/\/40yrs.blogspot.com\/2007\/10\/meme-that-government-understates.html\">this may already have occurred<\/a>, given how much the BLS and other governmental entities collude in tweaking the numbers to generate low numbers.<\/p>\n<p>I can&#8217;t give an exact date and time, but I expect the dollar to weaken to more than $1.50:1.00\u20ac before years end.  5 Years ago it was about $0.95:1.00\u20ac, and a few years befoire that, it was $0.72:1.00\u20ac.<\/p>\n<p>So the dollar has fallen 50%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr. Roubini reminisces aboutr how he was thought a lunatic in his latest blog post. A governor of the Chilean central bank commented &#8220;Usually at this kind of meetings I used to hear that the views of Nouriel Roubini about an impending financial and real hard landing are from the Moon. But this year there &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1261,1080,973,1200],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-198603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bubble","category-currency","category-economy","category-inflation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198603"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=198603"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198603\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=198603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=198603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=198603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}