Month: March 2008

The Unsinkable BUFF

It appears that the USAF is looking to change its draw down on B-52s, with 76, as opposed to 56.

Their justification is that they want some of the B-52s dedicated to nuclear strike, as opposed to swapping squadrons in and out of the service, on the theory that they won’t do stupid stuff like sending detonators to Taiwan, or flying live missiles by mistake.

Once again, the BUFF (Big Ugly Fat F&^%er) is being tasked to pull the Air Force brass’s ass out of a fire.

Kenyan Dispute Still Not Resolved

President Mwai Kibaki and PM Raila Odingaappear to be having significant problems resolving the composition of the cabinet.

I haven’t followed this closely, quite honestly Africa is pretty much off of my radar, but to the degree that I have, it’s painfully clear that Kibaki stole the election, and that he is being given a bit of a pass by outside powers, because he is seen as being “good for business.”

The impetus here should be for an arrangement that respects the will of the people as it was actually expressed at the ballot box, and to the degree that Kibaki is backing away from these agreements, it should be made clear that this is not acceptable.

U.S. F*^%ing It Up In Pakistan

First, we enthusiastically back and fund a not-particularly-competent military leader, who spends most of the money we send him on a potential war with India, and now we send “Mr. Death Squad” to lean on a not yet formed opposition government to be more proactive, all while continuing unilateral air strikes in populated areas.

Some selected quotes from the article below:

The meeting with Nawaz Sharif, …. have failed entirely. Sharif said that Pakistan would no longer be a “killing field” where other countries pursue their own interests.

[with tribal elders] “We told them that whatever differences we have (with the extremists), they can all be solved through the jirga system,” said Malik Darya Khan, one of the tribal chiefs who participated, referring to the traditional meetings of elders to solve disputes.

There also appeared to be an open dispute between Sharif and U.S. officials on how to deal with Musharraf. Sharif said afterward: “We don’t recognize him as the legitimate president.”

Dawn newspaper, in an editorial on Thursday, described the arrival of the two U.S. envoys as “indecent haste.” It added: “It is time Washington gave the new government time to settle down.”

“Bad timing gives the wrong signals, as if they are trying to pressurize the new government when it is in the stages of being formed,” said Shireen Mazari, the director general of Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad.

“The war on terror has be to revisited. The most dangerous thing is that the Americans have succeeded in shifting the center of gravity of the war to Pakistan. We have to shift it back to Afghanistan,” Mazari said.

Pakistani concerns about U.S. activity have been ignited over the last month by a series of apparent American missile attacks on targets in Pakistan. The news that the former commander of the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, detention camp, where hundreds of Muslim prisoners, many of them Pakistanis, have been held without charge, has been appointed the chief U.S. defense representative in Pakistan isn’t likely to help relations.

Seriously, they could not screw this up more if they tried.

Economics Update

In honor of March Madness:

Click image for source

You may recall that Monoliner insurer FGIC having problems. Now it is saying that was saying that it would not honor its insurance contract withCredit Agricole SA and IKB Deutsche Industriebank, because they deceived the insurers about their financial health.

Seeing as how IKB seems to be facing villagers with torches, this may very well be true.

It’s in court.

And of course, because it’s a day of the week ending with “y”, the Federal Reserve is giving away another $100 billion to the banks.

No wonder noted bear, and Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney is predicting that Citi will be cutting its dividend again soon.

In economic matters for the rest of us, personal income did better than expected, but personal spending remained weak, and the head of Freddie Mac is saying that he does not expect recovery in house prices until 2010.

I say that he is an optimist. The regional crashes we have seen, which have been much less severe, have all lasted at least 5 years, which puts the date at 2012, though I would take 2015 in the over/under in non-inflation adjusted dollar terms.

I don’t think that we will be back to the 2006 highs adjusted for inflation in my lifetime.

And in the world of collapsing economic institutions, we have former sub-prime lender Fremont General ordered to find a buyer by the FDIC, in addition to restricting interest it can pay to depositors, payments to senior executives, and transfers to its parent company.

This does make the fact that the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight has told Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that they are free to raise another $20 billion a bit nonsensical.

The taxpayers will end up on the hook for all of this.

No!!!!

It appears that Barack Obama has just said that if Reverend Wright had not retired, he would have left the church.

Stupid move. Barack Obama just bitch slapped himself in an effort to separate himself from the man who married him and baptized his daughters.

This is wrong, we can disagree with people we love, and it’s stupid, because it plays right into Josh Marshall’s Bitch Slap Theory of Politics, where by not defending themselves, and in this case people who are near family, they make voters wonder if they will stand up for them.

This is stupid. It makes him look weak, and folks that he is reaching out to will never vote for a black man.

We Have Reached the Tipping Point on the Dollar

Small local money changers in Holland are refusing to exchange the dollar, since they don’t typically exchange money back to Euros at the close of business each day, they think that the risk of a significant loss is too great.

And the South Korean pension fund that I mentioned yesterday are part of a trend which will likely see the end of the US dollar as the major reserve currency sooner than most people expect.

Mess-O-Potamia (Iraq Update)

Yes, I stole the hed from TDS.

First, it appears that the Iraqi security forces are giving Fatah a run for their money as the worst military in the world, see here, here, and here.

Much of this is about the fact that many in the security forces are deserting and joining the Mahdi army. Truth be told, many were already members of the Mahdi army.

As a result, Maliki is extending his so-called ultimatum to disarm, because everyone is laughing so hard at him.

As a result, the US military is being sucked into the fighting.

UK forces are not deploying to Basra, and have made it clear that they will not be doing so.

I guess it’s a bonus for getting rid of the Poodle.

More tanker

Both the USAF and Northrop Grumman are requesting that the Boeing Challenge be rejected, see here, here, and here.

Of more import is the fact that the UK just signed a contract for $13 billion for A330 tankers. Note that the contract is different, as it is to replace the RAF’s Lockheed TriStar and Vickers VC10s, and the former are large, as opposed to medium tankers, but it points to a trend.

I think that Boeing is out of the tanker business for the next 10 years, until the money is found to replace the KC-10 tankers.

Incompetents Abroad

Pakistan’s new coalition government is saying that it objects to what it considers the reckless and excessive air strikes of the US in Pakistan.

It’s clear that Musharraf is on the way out, and that this is the policy of the government, so what is the response of the US Military? They accelerate their bombing, because we need to get those last few licks in before the end of Musharraf actually become official.

Does anyone in the White House or Pentagon have a clue as to how damaging this behavior is?

More importantly, does anyone in the White House or Pentagon have any clue about anything period.

Will KPMG go Arthur Anderson?

It now appears that KPMG systematically helped New Century Financial, a mortgage lender, conceal its financial troubles.

New Century Financial, whose failure just a year ago came at the start of the credit crisis, engaged in “significant improper and imprudent practices” that were condoned and enabled by auditors at the accounting firm KPMG, according to an independent report commissioned by the Justice Department.

This is what killed Arthur Anderson.

The specifics:

  • KPMG auditors raised red flags, but KPMG partners rejected them because they, “feared losing a client.”
  • The accounting changes converted a loss ot a profit in the 2nd half of 2006.
  • These “profits” meant large executive bonuses
  • They also misled Wall Street about the status of the company and artificially inflated the stock price.

FWIW, I disagreed with the Supreme Court decision exonerating Arthur Anderson.

The only we get honest audits is if there is a threat of a corporate death penalty hanging over these folks heads.

Iraq Update

First, we must mention that Tahsin al-Sheikhly, a spokesman for the Iraqi government’s security forces has been kidnapped by elements of the Mahdi Army (See here and here).

It makes one wonder if Maliki’s really the head of the Iraqi government, or a very subtle sketch comedy troupe.

The fighting continues, and we are seeing large protests in Baghdad over this.

It’s increasingly clear that Cheney wanted provincial elections to go forward, and signed off on operations against the Mahdi Army to do this, not because they would prevent elections, but because Maliki wants to take them out to prevent Sadr’s party from making political gains in the elections.

Of course, Maliki is vowing “no retreat” on the operations, but if this ends with a cease fire, he’s done, so it’s not like he has an alternative.

In the mean time, the Maliki forces are not doing well, and it appears that US Armored forces are now actively involved. The Iraqi army is not, as they say, “standing up”.

Finally, on the real reason that we are there, oil, we are seeing oil price spikes on pipeline sabotage.

France to Cut Nuclear Arsenal

This is something that we should be doing too. Sarkosy has announced that the French nuclear arsenal will be cut to less than 300, about half of what it was at its peak.

This is a good step for everyone. Currently, according to the wiki, “[the USA] maintains a current arsenal of around 9,960 intact warheads, of which 5,735 are considered active or operational”.

I see no reason that we could not drop down to below 1000 operational warheads.

Zumwalt in Trouble

The DDG-1000 class ships are losing Congressional support, with Rep. Murtha proposing that they be delayed for other needs.

There were originally supposed to be 24 of these, then 7, and now 2, and they are being delayed, and the price has gone through the roof, with it now being quoted at $3 billion each, with realistic estimates putting it at $5 billion.

It’s a bad program. 80%+ of any surface combatant’s benefits are simply a product of their being afloat and available, so going with what are very large boats and fewer numbers gets fewer boats in the water, and this does is not outweighed by the additional capabilities of the larger boats.

The problem is that the US Navy has a fixation on size.

Economics Update

South Korea’s National Pension Service will no longer invest in US Treasuries. They are saying that the rates of return are too low.

Note that this is the 5th largest pension fund in the world, so this is a decision with consequences.

I have noted on a number of occasions that the Fed would find itself torn between keeping the economy afloat, and keeping the dollar strong, and this is the first leak in the dam.

This does not necessarily mean that they won’t be investing in the US though. While the rates treasuries are low, other interest rates are rising, with the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) up about 1%. Mortgage rates are also not responding to Fed Rate cuts.

Search for the term “pushing on a string” in my archives. It’s a quote from Keynes.

The weekly jobless claims numbers are less than were expected, which is good news, but there is a lot of noise week to week, so I’m more concerned about Commerce Department’s final GDP numbers, which show the inflation adjusted growth of the GDP being 0.6% annually.

Additionally, investors initial reaction was to flee long term treasuries following the unemployment numbers, which implies an expectation of increasing inflation.

In terms of the market recovering trust, not so much, with asset backed commercial paper, short term asset backed debt, falling. There are no buyers for it.

Finally, Merrill will write down $4.5 billion on CDOs (collateralized debt obligations), and post a loss in Q1.