Month: April 2008

Liberty City 7 6 To Be Tried For Third Time – Miami News Story – WPLG Miami

This is getting ridiculous. A bunch of sad sacks wanted some uniforms so that they could play soldier, the were contacted by a paid informant, and while they though that they were scamming him, he was scamming them, and the FBI, to get an al Queida payoff, but they will try these bozos again.

They are trying to get a conviction based on the fact that these guys are black and scary, which might work if they weren’t utterly pathetic instead of scary.

This is Not About Oil Production, It Is About Privitization

I was wondering how long it would take, but the PAN and its ilk have been salivating at the possibility of privatizing Mexico’s state owned oil industry for decades, and now they are trying to make public theft of state assets a reality.

State ownership of the oil industry is a core value of the Mexcan body politic, so much so that there is a national holiday to commemorate the nationalization of the industry. It is considered to be a pillar of national sovreignty.

The reason that PAN loves the idea of privatization is because it will provide the opportunity to generate huge salaries and consulting commissions to the pale skinned Mexican elites who went to university at places like Harvard and Brown.

The facts are simple:

  • Mexican oil production is dropping.
  • Mexican oil revenues are at an all time high because of high oil prices.
  • It cost nothing to leave unexplored oil where it is right now.
  • There is no need to rely on big oil for the technical expertise to get at that oil.

When the Oil industry downsized and consolidated in the 1980s and 1990s, thousands of petroleum engineers and the like were without jobs, and many of them found positions with the oil services industry, which now arguably more technically capable than the big oil.

If they want these fields developed, the Mexican government could contract with companies with Halliburton and Slumberger*, and get the job done without signing over future earnings. What’s more they would get more local employment out of it, because big oil tends to employ lots of expats to get the job done.

The claims that Pemex “lacks the money and expertise” to get this done are driven by a desire among Mexican conservatives to sell $100 of oil for $1 today, because them and theirs will get an additional 50¢ in sweetheart deals.

Pemex does have problems, but these can be fixed.

*Full disclosure, one of my step mom’s life long friends is one of those Slumbergers.

Must Read On Bond Ratings and Mortgage Crisis

Roger Lowenstein is a very concise analysis of just how what Atrios and I call the “Big Sh%$pile”* got the high ratings from Moodys necessary for the debt to be resold.

I think that it explains the process in a clear and concise way, though I think that he is far too easy on Moodys.

The process involved is inherently corrupt, since the issuers get to choose their ratings agency.

I would argue that much of this was covered in “Best PowerPoint Ever“, which makes it rather more clear just how corrupt this game was.

*Only the distinguished gentleman from Philadelphia does not mask out the last two letters of the word “Sh%$”

Northrop Grumman Wins BAMS

The Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) has just been awarded to NG, beating Lockheed-Martin/General Atomics and Boeing/General Dynamics.

BAMS! Northrop Wins Billion-Dollar UAS Deal | Danger Room from Wired.com

Basically it’s a large drone and sensor suite optimized for maritime work. NG and LM/GA’s bids were fairly typical (see picture below), and Boeing/GD had presented an “optionally manned” modified Gulfstream biz jet.

As the norm these days, I expect a challenge

Obama Just Did Something Mindboggling Stupid

I don’t care what the calculus behind this is, his decision to appear on Fox News Sunday is very very stupid.

Because top line Democrats no longer appear on their show, Fox has lost credibility, and they know it, and now Obama is sitting down because he thinks that he’s somehow going to charm them into liking him.

Even if they weren’t dishonest excuses for journalists, this would not happen. Journalists are small people who hold grudges over stuff like this, and they buy ink by the hogshead,* so this is a lose-lose.

It’s sh%$ like this that makes me wonder if he’s not ready for prime time.

*OK it’s hundreds of TV stations, but the analogy holds….

Gripen Demo Rollout

Well, SAAB has rolled out its Gripen demo, with more thrust*, more fuel, and more carrying capacity, see here and here.

There should be a meaningful (i.e. carrying a meaningful air-to-air load) supercruise, in addition to the greater payload and range in the strike configuration.

Additionally there are some developments in parallel in avionics, most notably an AESA radar.

Here you can see how the landing gear has been moved outboard to the win root to allow for more internal fuel and a second pylon on the fuselage.

Also here:

In addition to being the best value of the current generation of fighters, I also think that it’s just plain cool:


*Cheaper engine too. The RM-12, a GE F404 derivative is actually more expensive than the roughly 25% more powerful GE F414.

Signs of Sanity Appearing with Regard to the GSEs

It appears that both the Treasury Department and Congress are bedcoming concerned about the increasing exposure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to a potential meltdown, and are looking at increased regulations to prevent this.

Considering the fact that they are the 2nd and 3rd largest borrowers in the world, after the US government, the effects of their needing a bailout are enormous.

On the other side of this are people who want to bolster the housing market, and tighter GSE regulation goes in the other direction, and the fact that they have been aggressively lobbying Congress for years.

Hopefully, this time the bears win, or we may see a trillion+ dollar bailout.

Economics Update

Unemployment claims fell again, note my standard caveat about noisy measures though.

Note also that new-home sales are unbelievably grim. An 8.5% drop month to month is falling off a cliff, but this is following the numbers being revised downward for the month of February.

If that doesn’t scare you, there is a Credit Suisse research report that suggests that there will be 6.5 million foreclosures by 2012:

The foreclosures could put 12.7 percent of all residential borrowers out of their homes, Credit Suisse analysts, led by Rod Dubitsky, said in the report. That compares with a foreclosure rate of 2.04 percent in the last quarter of 2007, they said, citing Mortgage Bankers Association data.

That is one out of 8 residential borrowers.

That’s too bearish for even me, and I’m the biggest bear out there.

In terms of non-residential real estate measures, we have the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropping to its lowest level ever, suggesting that commercial real estate’s about to tank too, and orders for durable goods, items expected to last 3 or more years, fell 0.3% from February, worse than expected.

The drop in unemployment claims triggered a drop in treasuries and a strengthening of the dollar, because it makes it less likely that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting.

Truth be told, the Fed cutting rates won’t do much anyway, as is shown by mortgage rates continued upward path.

The Fed has lowered rates below the effective inflation rate, and so their rates have decoupled from the commercial rates.

Your Semi-Regular Dose Zimbabwe Elections

Well, it looks like China has backed down, and the An Yue Jiang will be heading back without having offloaded its weapons shipment to Mugabe and his goons.

The article also notes that Jendayi Frazer, the assistant secretary of state for African affairs is saying that Tsvangirai was the “clear victor” in the race, but given the credibility of the US foreign policy apparatus, this means next to nothing for the principals or the surrounding government.

The recount continues apace with ZANU-PF being awarded one MCD seat so far. If they flip 9, and I think that the electoral commission is doing their level best to make that happen, then the MDC loses its parliamentary majority.

We are starting to see proposals for a unity government being floated, but I see that foundering on the shoals of control of the state security apparatus, which Mugabe will not give up.

Jacob Zuma is one of the people floating this, but he is also ratcheting up the rhetoric with regards to Mugabe and the ZANU-PF too.

I’m not sure how much of this is internal ANC politics, truth be told.

Over the past month, I appear to have gotten about 10 visits from South Africa and Zimbabwe, so if someone has a local perspective, I would appreciate it.

US Claims DPRK-Syria Nuclear Ties

Sounds familiar *Cough* Iraq *Cough*? Don’t worry, we have video taped evidence, so there can be no question that…what????

Oh, we don’t have a video tape. We have a video presentation of a PowerPoint presentation, so what we have is something that is very close to Colin Powell’s infamous UN presentation (full disclosure, I know people who were involved int he technical end of the production):

A US official, requesting anonymity, told AFP: “There are still photographs of the facility as part of the video, but it’s a video presentation, like a Powerpoint presentation. It’s not a video of the facility.”

Just to remind everyone, we have no credibility on this:

Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha yesterday angrily denounced the U.S. and Israeli assertions. ‘If they show a video, remember that the U.S. went to the U.N. Security Council and displayed evidence and images about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I hope the American people will not be as gullible this time around,’ he said.

From your mouth to God’s ear.

Hillary is Raising Good Money, Will She Throw It After Bad Money

First, we have Clinton raising $10 million in the day after the Pennsylvania, and from a few days before, we have reports of significant indebtedness to her coterie of advisors.

This picture is just the amount owed to Penn’s firm, which is money that has been supremely poorly spent.

I think that it is highly unlikely that Clinton will outraise Obama through the rest of the primaries, and so this sh$# needs to stop for her to be viable.

Truth to be told this this sh$# needs to stop for all Democrats.

There is a professional parasite class inside the beltway, and it is paid on commission, so we get too much advertising, not enough ground game, and no interest in being more efficient, since increases in efficiency reduce their paycheck.

Their names are Penn, Shrum, Brazile, Begala, Grunwald, Trippi, etc.

They go on press shows where they puff themselves, and their overpriced consultancies, up and do little for candidates.

They don’t have faces for TV. Mark Penn looks like a bloody poster child for sex without partners.

If there is one good thing about Karl Rove, it’s that when he worked for Bush and His Evil Minions, he stayed in the background.

These people are part of the corrupt, venal, self serving, elitist, and incompetent DC beltway community, and the elected leaders Democratic party need to put a leash on these idiots.

The Republicans have done so for some time, starting well before Ed Rendell got purged for his walking around money comments.

It’s time for Democrats to start winning because of their senior campaign staff, not in spite of their senior campaign staff.

Telco Immunity Update

First, it appears that Steny Hoyer is working a capitulation compromise on a FISA update, but interestingly enough, the Vichy Blue Dog Dems are not in the least bit interested in talking to Republicans about immunity.

What the Vichy Blue Dog Democrats realize, and what the Quisling Hoyer does not, is that their constituents have their back.

When the Vichy Blue Dog Dems went home, they were not inundated by angry phone calls, they were given high fives for standing up to the least popular president ever.

Not one step back.

Insurer Problems on a Much Smaller, and Much Larger Scale

This is about health insurance, and obviously these policies, whose payouts typically max out at less than a million dollars, are smaller than the monoliner’s policies, but this is the tip of the iceberg.

UnitedHealth Group is taking a major hit because fewer and fewer employers can afford to buy its product.

The healthcare crisis is real and ongoing, and we are going 90mph towards a brick wall.

Food Crisis Update

I guess the part of the story we expect is this:

The rising prices are “threatening to plunge more than 100 million people on every continent into hunger,” Josette Sheeran, executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Program, said on the agency’s Web site Tuesday.

Foreign starvation, hand wringing over biofuels, etc.

Nothing to worry about here, we’re Americans…right???

WRONG

We are seeing severe shortages of rye flour, with no domestic supplies being available around July, and there are currently only 27 days wheat supply.

Additionally, we are seeing panic buying, which is forcing big box retailers to restrict bulk purchases of rice, so that they don’t run out.

We already have hunger in the US, just look at our overburdened food pantries, and it is going to get worse.

Eddie Haskell David Petraeus to Head CENTCOM

Great. This is a man who has staked his personal reputation in Iraq, and now they want him to allocate resources between Iraq and Afghanistan. I wouldn’t expect much perspective here.

Even more disturbing are his lies regarding Iran, which implies that Bush and His Evil Minions now have someone who be willing to attack Iran without question.

Furthermore, this will create a problem for an eventual Democratic nominee, because It’s clear that Petraeus will be a voice for Iraq forever, otherwise he looks like the charlatan he is, and there will be political blowback if they try to remove him from the post.

My hope would be that the hearings for his appointment would be scheduled for sometime in late January, 2009.

One Possible Answer to What the Republican October Surprise Will Be

GMU Professor Jeremy Mayer suggests that it will be an overseas arrest for war crimes of some prominent Bush administration official.

While I think that they are war criminals and should be tried, the reaction of the American public will be bellicose and jingoistic, playing to the base lizard brain of hatred, bigotry, and fear of the other that is at the core of Republican electoral success.

Remember Lt. William Calley. A poor officer and a murderer who shot a little boy in the back, but to the American public, he was a hero.