If true, this will be bad news when juxtaposed to skyrocketing heating costs, particularly for those in the Northeast who rely on heating oil.
Month: August 2008
As if Things Didn’t Already Suck for Georgia
Dick Cheney will be visiting Tbilisi next week, which should be unpleasant for everyone involved.
Cindy McCain is going there too, doubtless to provide tips on make-up, face lifts, and shoe purchases, in addition to her obvious expertise in drug abuse.
Unsurprisingly, the Russian Duma voted to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent, but there has not yet been a definitive statement by Medvedev, as the formal recognition of a state is the president’s and not the Duma’s prerogative, though I expect one shortly, because of the Kosovo precedent.
The US is warning that this is “unacceptable”, and I expect that the Russians will consider this with just as much seriousness as the US considered similar Russian warnings on Kosovo.
I supported, and continue to support, the independence of Kosovo, but one of the negative consequences was that it provided a precedent of secession of regions in Europe, and it’s entirely possible that we may see a similar movement in the Crimea in the next few years as a result.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and France are saying that Russia remaining in the so-called buffer zones is a violation of the cease fire, and Russia is maintaining that these are called for under agreements negotiated in the 1990s, and are thus covered by the cease fire.
My prediction: I expect formal recognition of the two breakaway regions as sovereign nations by Russia in the near future, and significant distancing from Georgia, or at least from Saakashvili by the West. It’s already happening in “Old Europe”, and I would expect it to occur in the US in January.
Nuclear Suppliers Group Throws Monkey Wrench into Indo-American Civil Nuke Deal
Which I consider to be a good thing.
The idea that somehow the technical know-how that the French and the US nuclear industries are so interested in exporting to India won’t flow to their weapons’ program is naive at best.
Right now, the US is lobbying the 45 nation NSG to grant a waiver to India, even though it will not sign the NNPT.
This approval is necessary for the Indo-US deal to go through, and the NSG is looking at adding conditions to the waiver such as periodic reviews, a more intrusive inspection regime of civilian nuclear power plants, and a cancellation of the waiver in the event of additional Indian weapons testing.
India has said that it would reject any such conditions though, so it’s unclear where things go from here.
Honestly, I see this as phenomenally bad policy being pushed by the US Nuclear power industry, and being supported by Bush and His Evil Minions™ because they are reliable Republican donors.
And if You Believe This, I have a Bridge for Sale.
The Iraqi government is now claiming that a “rogue unit” is to blame for raids on Sunni politicians and the “Awakenening” movement.
This is despite the fact that they normally answer directly to prime minister Nouri al Maliki.
WaMu Offering Desperate for Cash
That’s really the only reason that they would offer 5% for 12 Month CDs, because attempts to secure money from the markets cost a lot more, and they need it now.
Most banks are paying less than 4%, and WaMu ain’t some web only operation trying to build market share.
They are in trouble.
Best Slam of John McCain Evah!!!!
Courtesy of Roger Ailes
The McCain campaign keeps emphasizing that McCain was a prisoner in Vietnam, as proof of his qualification for the Presidency.
Well, so was Gary Glitter, and I’m not voting for him either
I don’t think that I will ever say anything so funny.
Mr. Ailes owes me a screen cleaner.
Zimbabwe: Something Good Happened Today
Well, as announced by Mugabe, the Zimbabwean parliament met today, and as feared, some (2) of the MPs were detained by the police, though one was released later.
That being said, what did happen once they were seated was surprising, Lovemore Moyo, of the MDC Tsvangerai won the election for speaker in a secret ballot, 110 to 98, which means that MDC Mutambara voted against Mugabe, as did at least one ZANU-PF member, though ZANU-PF won the Senate presidency, though since most of those members are appointed by Mugabe, or by provincial governors appointed by Mugabe, this came as no surprise.
Economics Update
The Philly Fed chief is calling for higher interest rates, because of inflation concerns.
The fact that there are now closings of marginal mines and the like would also indicate that the commodity plunge of the past 6 weeks or so is going to bottom out soon.
Though, truth be told, I’m not sure that it will make much of a difference, as the the fact that spread between LIBOR and the Fed Funds rate is 78 basis points, near an all time high, and an indicator that the Fed has largely lost control over interest rates in the rest of the economy, as well as indicating that the credit system is still frozen up.
Mean while, in real estate, we have bad news presented as good news, with stories trumpeting an increase in existing home sales in July, and soft pedaling a 7% year over year house prices.
Why is this National Association of Realtors (NAR) Bulls$#@?????
Because, Seasonally adjusted it’s ignoring seasonal adjustments July and August are always big months, particularly for parents who do not want their children to change schools mid year. It’s actually the worst seasonally adjusted numbers since 2000.
This is why 75% of Americans have negative view of economy, because the financial press is a bunch of Pollyannas, who ignore the the fact that aggregate weekly hours have been experiencing continuous negative growth on a month-to-month basis since January 2008.
Meanwhile, among the Wall Street Banks, we are now getting reports of a dead pool for Lehman CEO Dick Fuld. He’s expected to be out within a year, which does not bode well for the company as a whole.
Meanwhile, Robert Rubin is stepping down from his position chairman of the board’s executive committee, though he will remain on the board, which probably means something, but I do not know what, but considering Citi’s record, I’m assuming bad news.
Meanwhile, oil is up today, even though the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline has resumed flow, but gasoline prices continues their downward course.
Thedollar is mixed today.
Coalition in Pakistan Collapses
Nawaz Sharif has withdrawn his Pakistan Muslim League-N party from its coalition with the Pakistan People’s Party.
It’s not surprising. The one thing that Sharif demanded from the start was the restoration of all judges, and the refusal of PPP party head Asif Ali Zardari to reinstate all the judges, particularly Iftikar Muhammad Chaudhry.
They also agreed to reduce the power of the Presidency, and to have a non-partisan candidate for the office.
What this is really about in my mind is that Zardari is remarkably corrupt, even by the standards of Pakistani governance (as if that concept is not a mind f&%$), his nick name is “Mr. 10%”, and he is afraid that Chaudhry, who by all accounts is honest and non-partisan, will invalidate the grant of immunity for his corruption.
To be fair, it wasn’t just him who was corrupt. His late wife, Benazir Bhutto, was hip deep in all of this too, but since she went to Harvard, and spoke excellent English, she was labeled a democratic hope for Pakistan.
Real Estate Appraisers Still Being Pressured
And the Wild Blue Yonder Boys Screw Up in Afghanistan
Karzai just condemned a USAF led airstrike in Afghanistan and fired two commanders in the region.
A representative of the Karzai administration nails it:
“This puts us in a very difficult position,” said a government official, who asked not to be identified because of the delicacy of the matter. “It provides propaganda to the Taliban, and if they don’t take responsibility, it actually helps the Taliban.”
Of course, even when coalition troops engaging in a training exercise are targeted by pilots hopped up on amphetamines, or a pilot joy riding below altitude minimums kills 20 people in a cable car, there is at best a slap on the wrist (note that the latter were Marines, not USAF).
The three US air services need to stop behaving in a way that aids the insurgents.
Big Three Welfare Queens
They are looking for $25 billion in federal loans…..at 4.25%……about 1/3 of what they are paying now….with the government having an option to defer any payments 5 years.
In 1980, Ronald Wilson Reagan rode into the white house on the story of a welfare mother who drove a Cadillac.
Now it appears that the welfare recipient is Cadillac, with John Dingell and the rest of the whores in Michigan backing it.
If they want a bailout, then shareholders and senior management need to lose, and lose big.
FDCI Closed Another Bank Friday
Damn….Always happens when I’m offline for Shabbos.
Must be FDIC policy to only close banks on Fridays after close of business.
This time, it’s The Columbian Bank and Trust, Topeka, KS.
Georgia Again
Obviously, what makes the news in the US is that the USS McFaul delivered aid to Georgia, but in the grand scheme of things, that means very little.
I think of more import is that fact that Saakashvili is a nut-job relegated to chewing his own tie…Really…see the vid at end.
First, he is promissing to rebuild his army and retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia. That’s clearly not going to happen. Both areas will be declaring independence, and will be recognized by Russia, in the next 18 months, and probably before January 21.
We also have him flat out lying about the original Georgian offensive into South Ossetia, claiming that the Russians had already moved tanks in, and I honestly think that he believes that.
Certainly there are issues of provocations on both sides, but the idea that somehow Georgia was forced to invade South Ossetia and launch an artillery barrage on its capital has no relationship to reality.
Of course, it doesn’t help that the Georgian parliament has extended martial law, which I think at this point will be used against political opponents, and not either the Russian military or Ossetian or Abkhazian militias.
Interestingly enough this article in Newsweek provides some insight into the dynamics between Georgia and the West:
It would have been hard not to be charmed by Mikheil Saakashvili. Young, dynamic, Western-educated and -oriented, he was among the most intriguing characters to move onto the global stage after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
….
….Soon after, I met the president again at his newly built residence in Tbilisi. He had dark rings around his eyes and he alternated between enormous, if not misplaced confidence that his Western allies would help him, and rather childish despair about Russia’s view of him personally. He said he had heard that Russian officials play billiards with the word MISHA written on the black ball, and asked the reporters assembled at his home, “What is going on in Russia? Am I hated there?” That evening he seemed traumatized by this. With his head in his hands, and pear juice and brandy running down his chin, he pleaded: “Does anybody know what Russia is up to?”
This is Western Tribalism at it’s finest: He spoke good English. He went to an elite technical school, Columbia University, so despite the fact that he unleashed riot police on protesters, and seized opposition media outlets, he has to be a good guy.
We see the same thing in Iraq: The representatives of ISCI, a proxy for Iran, speak fluent English, and affect American manners, so they must be the representatives of western style democracy.
The West in general, and America in particular, must get over this little bit of chauvanism.
Perhaps the most extreme example of just how far this short-sightedness takes us is this piece of doggerel from Richard Holbrooke, who claims that somehow the Russians have lost because Saakashvili is still nominally in power, when it is clear that he is a dead man walking.
He is an indicator of just how morally and intellectually bankrupt the foreign policy establishment is in Washington, DC.
Rule Number 1 of US Defense Procurement
Is that if it’s a joint program with the Europeans, then the Department of Defense will screw around with it, and try to kill it. (paid subscription required)
Case in point is MEADS, which packages an improved Patriot PAC-3 missile with extensive European involvement, and now the Pentagon wants to reorganize the program. (paid subscription required)
I kind of knew the program was doomed when I worked a (very little) bit on in in 1998. Jointness is the kiss of death for the Pentagon.
Give me a Fracking Break!!!!!
We now have Robin Leach excusing John McCain for not knowing how many homes he has, because he would, “call it honest confusion.”
Let’s see….Robin Leach, former host of Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous, is defending John McCain for not being able to remember how many homes he owns….Seriously, ou cannot make this sh&% up…really.
This is beyond even the Nostradamus-Like genius of The Onion.
F-22 Communications Link Delayed
As I’ve mentioned before, the F-22 Raptor is the roach motel of data. Data goes in, but it doesn’t get out.
The USAF has been looking at adding software to its radar to allow it to communicate via the AESA transmitter modules in its radar.
Well, it now appears that USAF had placed the program on hold, my guess is because Iraq is sucking up too much money.
Hypersonic Test Rocket Crashes
It was the first flight of the ALV-X1 rocket, and the Hypersonic Boundary Layer Transition (HYBOLT) and the Sub-Orbital Aerodynamic Re-entry Experiment (SOAREX) were lost when the rocket lost 27 seconds into flight.
Huh….I guess some times rocket science is rocket science.
Israel-based X-Band Radar Will Be Off-Limit to Israelis
About 2 weeks ago, I wrote about Israel getting an advanced X-band radar to aid in their missile defense efforts.
Well in a turn that could have come out of The Onion, it appears that if the radar is installed, it Israeli personnel will not be allowed on the premises, which would mean that foreign troops would be based in Israel, a reversal of long held policy.
12 Years to Modify a Bloody Helicopter?
We are talking about the UH-1Y and AH-1Z programs, which entailed a new propulsion pack, 4 bladed rotor, and avionics.
12 years…and 140% over budget……I need a tax refund.