Month: March 2009

Economics Update

So, we have some mixed news on the state of consumers, consumer sentiment improved slightly, though it is still near historic lows, and incomes have fallen.

Since consumers are generally deleveraging, I would place more importance on the latter, case in point, is February automobile sales continuing to drop, with the replacement for the US auto fleet, fleet size divided by monthly sales, hitting 27 years.

Obviously, this is not a sustainable number, and I would expect car sales to improve at some point, though whether this in time for the Big 3 (Big 2½) is anyone’s guess.

In any case, it apperas that Japan is heading back toward a deflationary situation, with their January CPI figures showing no change.

In energy and currency, the dollar is up and oil and other commodities are down.

IMF Economist Compares US to Argentina and Russia

Desmond Lachman, former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Policy and Review Department writes an OP/ED in the Washington Post todaysays what I have been saying for some time, that we are not tossing out the incumbents who created the mess, and that we are treating an solvency crisis as a liquidity crisis.

Mr. Lachman, a fellow at the right wing American Enterprise Institute (!) basically says that both Paulson and Geithner are handling the situation in a manner consistent with the most corrupt 3rd world nations.

Your mouth to Barack Obama’s ear, dude.

New EU Scraps Net Neutrality

It appears that the new EU telecommunications rules are likely to scrap network neutrality completely.

The big incumbent Telcos there are very much in support of this, because milking money out of their monopoly is really their only skill, same as in the good old USA, and the regulators believe that the market will cure everything, “This approach is backed by the European Commission, which argues that if consumers feel their content is somehow being compromised, they will switch to other providers.”

Because competition in such matters has worked so well in the most free market telco environment in the industrialized world, where the speeds are the slowest, and the rates are highest, and ISPs lie about their policies.

Tell Me How This is Not Fraud and Theft of Services

It appears that the senior managers at AIG’s Paris division of AIG’s Financial Products, Banque AIG, wrote $234 billion in derivatives contracts so that they would likely be technically be in default if they left the firm:

The executives at Paris-based Banque AIG, Mauro Gabriele and James Shephard, have resigned in recent days but have agreed to stay on for a transition, according to people familiar with the matter. In the wake of their resignations, AIG must replace them to the satisfaction of French banking regulators.

If they don’t, French regulators may appoint their own designee to manage the bank — an outcome that could trigger defaults under the bank’s derivative contracts. The private contracts say that a regulator’s appointment of a manager constitutes a change in control, according to a person familiar with the matter; the provision is often included in derivative contracts where parties want to preserve a way out if something about their counterparties changes.

Seriously, this is fraud. They essentially cooked to books to maximize the possibility that, if they left, there was a real risk of the a technical default.

We need to start throwing these folks in jail by the hundreds, and not a “white-collar resort prison,” they should be going to a, “POUND ME IN THE ASS prison,” to quote Office Space.

Why Cap and Trade Sucks

Because if there is a sign that a regulatory strategy is ill conceived, it is when you end up paying farmers not to grow crops, and this appears to be one of the new cash crops for the American farmers.

This is a fraud foisted on the American consumer and the environment, much like the construction of unneeded hydroelectric plants in China for carbon credits on the European cap and trade system is a fraud on the European consumer and the environment.

The solution, which is cheaper for the consumer, and keeps the Wall Street types from gaming the system, is the straight carbon tax.

Economics Update

So, the US economy contracted at a revised 6.3% annual rate in the 4th quarter of 2008 and initial jobless claims rose to 652,000 from 640,000 last week, with continuing claims jumped to 5.56 million, another record.

Additionally, we saw New York City’s jobless rate jump by 1.2% in February, from 6.9% to 8.1%.

On the other hand, truck tonnage rose in February, which implies that the requirements for goods and services increased, and the 30 year fixed mortgage rates dropped again.

Meanwhile, in energy, retail gasoline broke $2/gal for the first time this year, and oil hit a 4 month high of $54.34/bbl.

In currency, the dollar rose today.

White House “Happy” that EFCA is Dead?

I would offer the the caveat that one of the contributors to MSNBC’s “First Read” is Chuck Todd, who can be one of the stupidest muthf%$#ers in the White House press room,* but there is a report that the White House is “happy to have this debate out of the way” because, “sticking a finger in business’ eye wasn’t something the White House was looking forward to.”

This is about the most politically opportune time to do this, with the public attitude toward businesses being rather low, AIG is a symptom, not the trend.

I cannot for the life of me think of anyone in the White House who would even hold this opinion, except for economic adviser, and poster child for sex without partners, Lawrence Summers, who is on record saying that unions cause unemployment, but even he isn’t stupid enough to mouth off to a reporter, or for that matter a co-worker, about this.

I’ll call bullsh%$ on this for now.

*Cases in point were his questions at the first two press conferences, would Obama veto something that doesn’t get any Republican votes in the interest of bipartisanship, and how Americans should sacrifice to address the financial meltdown (like millions of people out of work and losing their homes isn’t enough) because he does not understand the difference between a foreign war and a domestic economic downturn.
Yeah, I know, with “Democrats” like him, who needs Republicans.

Jake DeSantis, Go Cheney Yourself

Mr. Desantis used to work for AIG, but quit, and published his letter or resignation in the New York Times.

So, why am I down on the gentleman? Because anyone who writes such a self-important letter, then goes about having it published in the most influential publication in the United States, and wants us to feel sorry for him, despite the fact that, “I received a payment from A.I.G. amounting to $742,006.40, after taxes,” something in the range of $1.2 million pre-tax, is simply an asshole.

AIG F#@$ed Up Yet Another Perfectly Good Business

This time, it’s International Lease Finance Corp. (IFLC), the largest aircraft leasing operation in the world, which was fabulously profitable when they bought it from Stephen Udvar-Hazy in 1990, and it looks like they are angling for a government bailout, at that’s the subtext that I read into the article.

Isn’t the idea of successes in their own financial niche moving into areas in which they have no clue such a wonderful idea?

Whiners

Specifically the New York Times reporters covering the press conference:

This was Mr. Obama as more enervating than energizing, a reminder of the way he could be in his early days as a presidential candidate, before he became defined by rapturous crowds.

Hmmm…I wonder why they are so down on the press conference>

He showed his usual comfort with a wide array of subjects, even as he excluded the nation’s big newspapers from the questioning in favor of a more eclectic mix.

Oh my God! He did not ask a New York Times reporter a question. We are masters of the universe! How dare he!

What a bunch of self absorbed pratts.