Month: May 2009

Company Claims Throttlable Solid Fuel Rocket

A company called Digital Solid State Propulsion claims to be able to throttle a solid state rocket electronically. (See vid below).

This has a number of potential applications, such as variable blast bombs and thrusters for satellites.

To my mind, one of the applications would be for an air to air missile, where the motor would be on continuously for short/medium range flight, but for longer range, it would coast much of the way to the target.

Neat tech.

Thielert Reenters Aero Diesel Engine, Diamond Pursues Their Installed Base

Thielert (top picture), and Diamond (bottom picture) are now both aggressively competing for market share for aircraft diesel engines. (paid subscription required)

Both engines are based on the same Mercedes diesel engine block, so the real differences are design philosophy and corporate history.

In terms of design philosophy, Diamond’s engine, the AE300, is somewhat heavier, and it is implied, more robust.

In terms of corporate history, Thielert went into bankruptcy, largely driven by the warranty costs on their engine, production ramp-up issues, and financial irregularities, and the trustee basically tried to shake down the installed base by demanding ruinously expensive service and parts.

They have since returned to a going concern status, though their warranty terms are now far less generous, and their engine division has been rebranded “Centurion”.

Diamond aircraft, as Thielert’s best customer, was left in a serious lurch by this, and so developed its own engine, which has now been certified by the EASA, and they are using it on their new build aircraft.

The two main draws of Aero-Diesels are better fuel economy, and the ability to run on Avjet fuel, as opposed to the increasingly expensive and hard to find, particularly in austere locations, Avgas.

I think that for Theilert to compete, it needs to get a handle on reliability, as is evidenced by the line from the article, “By year-end, the company hopes to have doubled the service life of the two vital components to 600 hr,” (emphasis mine) which means that they were operating at a 300 hour life (!!) (IIRC, it’s the reduction gear and clutch).

By comparison, the TBO (time between overhaul) on the 0-360 is 2000 hours.

Both diesels are pushed harder to get their power than current commercially available engines, with he competing Avgas is something like the Lycoming 0-360 (whose origins are more than 50 years old) generating 180 horsepower out of 5.91 liters (361 cubic in) at 2700 rpm, while the Theilert gets 135 hp at (it’s been certified for 155 hp) out of 1.9 liters at 3700 RPM, and the AE300 gets 166 hp out of 1.9 liters at 3800 rpm .

Note also that the prop speed on the diesels is 2300 RPM, while on the direct drive Lycoming it remains 2700 rpm, so propulsive efficiency per hp should be a bit better for the diesels, and their fuel consumption is on the order of ½ that of the gasoline engine.

Israel May Drop JSF

So, we now have a report that Israel may order the semi-stealthy “Silent Eagle” if it does not get technical data on the computer for the F-35 JSF.

The claim is that they need to be able to repair the systems under combat conditions, but the counter claim by the US that they will have sufficient spares to swap them out seems to be convincing to me, so I think that there may be other issues.

First is the price. With an order of 75 aircraft, and a price of up to $20 billion, the cost of the aircraft is $266 million each (!), and that is simply not affordable.

Heck, the good old USA can’t afford more F-22s at a mere (!) 185 million each.

More significant, however, is that without this access, the Israelis will be unable to qualify their own systems on the aircraft.

This means that they cannot configure their own weapons, or their own avionics in such a system, means that, for example, they could not make adjustments to the AESA radar in order to jam some new sensor that was fielded, or install a dedicated jamming system on the aircraft.

I think that idea that they would be at the mercy of Lockheed-Martin for timely software upgrades to counter a new weapons system that the Russians or Chinese ship to the Syrians scares the hell out of the IAF.

Pakistan Is Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the JCS, has testified that Pakistan is expanding its arsenal to Congress: “WASHINGTON — Members of Congress have been told in confidential briefings that .

While his response in public testimony did not contain any detail, we are talking at a significant increase in capability, including the creation of new reactors which can create bomb grade plutonium, which would allow for significantly more compact and weaponizable bombs.

The Danger Room has a satellite pic showing the expansion of its facilities.

Seriously, we have a borderline failed state, a civilian government that is failed by most criteria, and they are building more nukes….Delightful.

Boeing’s Looks to Uprated Engine for Super Hornet

As a results of GE’s work on the Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technology (IHTET) research program, GE has managed to increase the thrust of the F-414 engine by 20%, which would take it from its current 22,000 lbs to about 26,400 lbs of thrust, and Boeing is looking to using this engine as an inducement to sell more of it’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EF-18G Growler on the export market (paid subscription required). (See also here).

Basically, there is a new core, which the US Navy wants to increase durability, and reduces fuel consumption by about 3%, and a new fan, which can be used to increase thrust, and which the navy does not want.

Boeing is offering the 2nd option to other customers, which is a sort of acknowledgement that the “market” finds the F/A-18 E/F (and G) to be a little bit poky compared to the competition.

It might also make SAAB’s Gripen NG, my fighter obsession du jour, more attractive, as the increased durability engine would save costs and give it somewhat longer legs, and the 20% increase in thrust, which might require a new inlet, because mass flow increases, would offer a very significant increase in performance.

One Solution to Piracy

There is s conflict between merchant ships being generally forbidden under international maritime law from carrying weapons, and how to deal with the the upsurge of pirates.

One interesting solution is the electronically controlled water cannon, which comes with a remote control joystick, so that the operator can be away from the turret, and the returned fire, an automatic system to track small boats, the ability to also shoot pepper spray, and, at 5000 liters a minute, it can, “send an 85 kg barrel flying end over end at 75 meters”, which is well probably at the accurate fire limit for someone shooting you at a small boat.

Best of all, it’s not a weapon, it’s “fire fighting equipment,” and so is not subject to things like port restrictions.

Gives New Meaning to the Term “Standing for Election”

A Sex Party has been formed in Canada, which is committed to the liberalization of sex laws and regulations and to to combat the stigmatization of sex in the political process in North America:

The monster in question is ‘erotophobia‘. “Running amok through the North American psyche – like a deranged yet invisible King Kong – are deeper antisex attitudes that produce stale marriages, anti-prostitution legislation, laws against public nudity, government classification of pornography, cautionary – not positive – sex-education classes, media censorship, homophobia, and the biggest bugaboo of all: guilt.”

This follows the formation of similar political organizations in Australia and the UK.

I actually think that puritanical attitudes about sex, and the alarmist attitudes about the juxtaposition of sex and race in the United States, have created a truly delusional mindset on the part of the right wing, and the emergence of a truly pro-sex movement in the US would therefore be a good thing.

Economics Update

So, the bank failures come later today, it’s Friday, but Calculated Risk’s Credit Crisis Indicators are generally positive, though it appears that there are a lot of bears on Treasuries, with the 10-Year note falling sharply.

Then, we have a return of the monoliner insurers, with Moody’s looking at cutting ratings on a whole passel of them.

Meanwhile, all the concern about treasuries and the USD pushed the dollar down today, which in turn pushed oil above $61/bbl.

On the brighter side, this led OPEC to decide against a production cut.

Heck of a Terrorist Plot You’ve Got There

You know, those highly trained terrorists who were planting bombs.

You know, the ringleader, David Cromitie, who admitted to being stoned while planting what he thought were bombs.

And you have the full rundown of the “Newburgh 4”, which includes a cocaine addict, a schizophrenic who is borderline retarded, and the government informant, was facing deportation for what amounts to forging immigration documents, who ran a similar sting a few years back, allegedly attempted to pay another member of his mosque to join his merry band, and was described by independent observers as “the boss.”

I have no doubt that they will be convicted, that’s what happened to the folks down in Florida, but this does nothing for anyone, except perhaps the police and prosecutors who use unreliable informants for career climbing.

Let There Be No Kings

So, one of the proposals in Barack Obama’s speech is a proposal for permanent preventive detention on the say so of the President:

“But even when this process is complete, there may be a number of people who cannot be prosecuted for past crimes, in some cases because evidence may be tainted, but who nonetheless pose a threat to the security of the United States. Examples of that threat include people who’ve received extensive explosives training at al Qaeda training camps, or commanded Taliban troops in battle, or expressed their allegiance to Osama bin Laden, or otherwise made it clear that they want to kill Americans. These are people who, in effect, remain at war with the United States.

Let me repeat: I am not going to release individuals who endanger the American people. Al Qaeda terrorists and their affiliates are at war with the United States, and those that we capture — like other prisoners of war — must be prevented from attacking us again. Having said that, we must recognize that these detention policies cannot be unbounded. They can’t be based simply on what I or the executive branch decide alone. That’s why my administration has begun to reshape the standards that apply to ensure that they are in line with the rule of law. We must have clear, defensible, and lawful standards for those who fall into this category. We must have fair procedures so that we don’t make mistakes. We must have a thorough process of periodic review, so that any prolonged detention is carefully evaluated and justified.

I know that creating such a system poses unique challenges. And other countries have grappled with this question; now, so must we. But I want to be very clear that our goal is to construct a legitimate legal framework for the remaining Guantanamo detainees that cannot be transferred. Our goal is not to avoid a legitimate legal framework. In our constitutional system, prolonged detention should not be the decision of any one man. If and when we determine that the United States must hold individuals to keep them from carrying out an act of war, we will do so within a system that involves judicial and congressional oversight. And so, going forward, my administration will work with Congress to develop an appropriate legal regime so that our efforts are consistent with our values and our Constitution.”

This is contemptible.

If they are prisoners of war, then treat them as such, and grant them the rights therein, including the Geneva conventions, which among other things, prevent their transfer to 3rd countries (Bagram and the CIA gulags).

If they are not, then try them by jury.

This was also the reaction of civil libertarians who had an off the record meeting with him at the White House.

I’m sure that Barack Obama has read the Declaration of Independence, and amongst the grievances given by the founding fathers were, “depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury,” and “transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences,” which sound a lot like what he wants to do.

His argument is that unlike Bush, he can be trusted.

This is a lie. Any agency of government who wishes the grant or extraordinary power on this basis is inherently untrustworthy, and the same goes double for his successor.

Sorry, but, “Because I’m so awesome,” is not a reason.

His speech frightened me more than Dick Cheney’s, because Dick Cheney no longer has the power to do what he wants.

FASB Rule Will Force Banks to Move Assets Onto Books

Effective for reporting periods after November 15 of this year, the Federal Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is requiring that the assets of Qualifying Special Purpose Entities (QSPEs) be reported “on the books”.

Yes, I know your first question, “Can I have that translated please?”

The quick translation is that these are “off balance sheet entities,” which are used to conceal losses and risk.

Here is a snapshot:

Lenders recorded profits before the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007 by selling pooled loans to off-balance- sheet trusts, which repackaged the pools into mortgage-backed securities. Banks then sold those securities to other off- balance-sheet vehicles they sponsored, concealing from investors that the securities were backed by deteriorating mortgages.

As to the next obvious question, “What does this all mean?”, it means that significant losses and risks which, until now, have not been a part of many financial institutions reporting, will be reported, and significant losses will result.

How much?

Well, the article says about $900 billion, but my guess is that this is low, because one is always shocked when one turns over a rock.

Let There Be Contested Primaries

Barack Obama must be listening to Rahm Emanuel again, because he just successfully pressured Rep. Steve Israel to drop out of the New York primary race against Kristen Gillibrand.

I guess we see yet another case of incumbent protection.

I do not know whether or not Gillibrand would win in a real contested primary. She probably would, she is a prodigious fund raiser.

What’s more, she seems to be moving a little to the left now that she is representing the state of New York, as opposed to just her Neanderthal district.

But none of that earns her, or any candidate, the right to a primary without a meaningful challenger.

“Move Quickly” Means that the Taxpayer Getting Boned By the Banks

So, Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner is saying that the Treasury will move quickly to sell the warrants it got for the TARP money.

The warrants, basically stock options, were there to ensure that taxpayers would share in the upside, as well as the downside, but now he’s looking to “move quickly” to sell them.

The devil is in the details:

Big banks may value their warrants at an amount that is hundreds of millions of dollars below the prices that other models might generate, the Treasury official said. That range makes it hard for the government to find a price that protects taxpayer funds without penalizing the banks.

Geithner today reiterated that the government can sell the warrants back to the bank or to a third party.

Translation: How do we cut a sweetheart deal for the banks?

Because if the Treasury actually believes that the banks are truly solvent, and will survive, then the warrants are worth tens, if not hundreds, of billions more than what we the taxpayer will get for them.

This Article Makes Me Feeling Queasy

A New York Times financial reporter describes how he got tied up in the foreclosure crisis.

I guess the article is a good description of the mania that gripped the nation,* but it makes me feel like a peeping Tom, so I let it percolate in my mind for a while.

It’s informative, but it made me feel like I was intruding to read it.

*Well, not so much me, I bought a house in 2004 with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage and 20% down, at only about a 15% greater payment than the half a duplex I was renting, I had to move, and so I bought, even though I though houses were overpriced.