Month: July 2009

Latest Phony GOP SH%$ Storm

They are claiming that the EPA is suppressing climate warming skeptical reports from one of their employees, Al Carlin.

There are, however, a few problems:

  • He’s an economist not a scientist.
  • He was never asked the reports, this is a hobby that he does on the side, and then he writes memos about them.
  • The report has been by a NASA climatologist as, “a ragbag collection of un-peer reviewed web pages, an unhealthy dose of sunstroke, a dash of astrology and more cherries than you can poke a cocktail stick at.”
  • He’s never been a part of the climate change working group.

So basically, he’s the nutcase you ignore on an email listserv.

She’s persona non grata in Palm Beach

Pity Ruth Madoff. She’s going to have to live the rest of her life on just $2.5 million in cash:

Ruth will be left with just $2.5 million in cash by federal authorities under that deal.

“In the deal, she lost everything. She’s lost everything she holds dear,” said one source. “She’s lost her husband. She has no friends.”

“She’s persona non grata in Palm Beach, everywhere she cared about. She’s a beaten woman. There’s nothing left on the carcass to take,” the source said.

(emphasis mine)

$2½ million and PNG in Palm Beach!

The horror.

On Having 60 Democrats

OK, so Al Franken is finally going to be seated.

The question is two fold, what does this mean, and what should this mean?

Ignoring the health issues of Byrd and Kennedy,* which means that Democrats are theoretically able to get cloture in the event of a Republican filibuster.

The question is, “Will they?”

Obviously, managing Senators is like herding cats, so one cannot expect them, particularly on the Democratic side of the aisle, to vote for every bit of legislation.

Voting on cloture, however, should a different thing, though I’ve very little confidence in Senate Leader Reid enforcing this.

As voters, and potential campaign contributors, I would suggest not contributing to the DSCC and instead contributing to individual campaigns, with Dem Senators who vote against cloture healthcare or global legislation getting nothing.

*Which is a lot like saying, “Other Than That, Mrs. Lincoln, How Was the Play?”

Economics Update

Unemployment Rate Actual data vs. the Summers-Geithner Stress Test Assumptions
H/T Calculated Risk

The obvious lede is the various corporate measures of job cuts, with ADP Employer Services saying that there were 393K private-sector jobs cut, Challenger, Gray & Christmas saying that planned job cuts in June were 74,393, and the Monster Employment Index (PDF) moderating somewhat for June.

These are a bit better than May, but only in “the 2nd derivative is improving” way.

Jobs are still being cut, when you need to job growth to match the growth of the work force.

In related “2nd derivative” news, there is CNN trumpeting the fact that the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index rose for the 6th straight month:, while Bloomberg correctly notes that what this really means is that Manufacturing in U.S. Shrank at Slower Pace in June.

Falling less slowly is not improvement.

I am so sick of hack Panglossian journalists.

We also have mortgage applications falling to a 7 month low, which indicates that right now the housing market is in a death dance with economic recovery.

Any recovery will bump interest rates a few points, but that will kill any recovery in real estate……Catch 22.

If you want some good news, industrial sentiment rose in Japan, but it’s a “2nd derivative” thing too, with the index rising to minus 48 in June from minus 58 in March.

The only really good news, is that Calculated Risk’s June Economic Summary in Graphs is out, so there is some good chart pr0n for the wonks.

In energy, we have US Diesel inventories up, along with both oil and gasoline falling on increasing inventories.

Finally, the dollar fell, though I can’t tell if this is China’s suggestion of an alternate reserve currency, or because all the “2nd derivative” stuff make investors feel less of a need for a safe haven.