Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Epic Fail: Condoleeza Edition

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Condoleeza Rice, once more attempting to make the world look like it did before the USSR collapsed, has failed again, this time in attempting to form a NATO style security union.

In 1992, she suggested that Boris Yeltsin not be accorded the formalities of a head of state, because she thought that the USSR was coming back “real soon now”, and since then, she has done her level best to recreate a Soviet style menace out of Russia.

I imagine it’s because her so called area of expertise (see the Yeltsin example above), the USSR, has gone away, and so she is trying to recreate academic relevance.

Don’t worry dear, you sucked at being a Sovietologist too.

Cost of ‘Stealth’ Housing Bailout: $1.43 Trillion

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Steve Liesman at CNBC Runs the numbers on the housing bailout to this point:

Federal Reserve $446 B Term Auction Facilities, $150 B, Bear $29 B, $14 B Discount Window to Banks, Repurchase Agreements $88 B, Swap Lines to Euro banks $65B, Treasuries lent out for liquidity boost $100 B
Federal Home Loan Bank $274 B Advances to member banks
Fannie and Freddie $621 B
FHA $90 B Added since October
Total $1431 B

Ouch.

Venn Diagram of Bush High Crimes and Misdemeanors

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Slate has a good analysis of the various serious crimes of Bush and His Evil Minions™.

Note that this is just those crimes where the action at its core is wrong and official in nature, torture, illegal surveillance, illegal political hirign, and illegal political firings.

They even have an interactive Venn diagram (what’s below is just an image) of the whole sordid mess.

Surprisingly enough Abu Gonzalez is at the center of it all.

Senate Passes Housing Bill

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It already passed the house, so it will go to Bush, who says that he will sign it.

My guess on the total effect, very little, since there is no mechanism to encourage lenders to actually cut a deal.

The single thing that would help the most, and it would cost the government nothing would be to allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages for primary residences, as they can for investment and vacation property.

Maybe after January 21.

DDG-1000 Procurement Halted at 2 Ships

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This is a good move, the ships are too big and too expensive, costing at least 2½ times that of the Arleigh Burkes that they are to replace.

Susan Collins, the Senator from Bath Iron Works Maine, one of the two shipyards constructing the Zumwalt‘s, appears to be resigned to the termination of the program, though she wants more Burkes to be constructed, which are also made at BIW, which indicates that Congress won’t ram more DDG-1000s this down the Navy’s throat.

I would expect to see some investigation on integrating some of the DDG 1000 specific systems into the Burkes, specifically, the SPY-3 radar and the 155mm Advanced Gun System.

Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gary Roughead, has been highly critical of the program since his appointment in September, 2007, and sent a letter to Sen. Ted Kennedy saying that the DDG-1000 would not be cheaper to opperate than the DDG-51 Burkes.

Rolls Royce Looking at Trades Between Time on Wing and Fuel Consumption

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RR is starting to look at the future of air transport propulsion, and it has everything on the table right now, including increasing maintenance to reduce fuel burn, which is as close to heresy as you can find in commercial aviation.

Time on wing has been king for a very long time. It’s one of the things that allowed early jet liners to beat their piston, and to a lesser degree turboprop (gearbox maintenance), competitors: that the could stay in service, and flying for a very long time.

It’s an interesting testament to the changes wrought by the increasing oil price spike, and it convinces me that open-rotor propulsion will make it to commercial use this time around.

Euros Look to Man Rate ATV-ARV by 2020

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They intend to make the automated cargo vehicle a manned space capsule in the next 12 years.

The ESA is already working on the Advanced Return Vehicle (ARV), which add a 1.5 tonne return capability to the existing Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), and the manned vehicle would be similar to the ARV, though it would likely have a smaller propulsion section, as it would not be expected to boost the space station orbit.

Seriously, the Indian Defense Establishment is the Most Fracked Up Military-Industrial Complex on the Face of the Earth

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I just saw this press release from the Indian government about the Nag anti-tank missile.

It’s supposedly a “third generation anti-tank missile”, and it’s supposed to undergo final trials in the next week or so, but the missile has been 22 years in development.

22 years? For an anti-tank missile?

That is completely whack, and once again the initials DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization), a government agency and defense contractor, which figures prominently in this absurdity.

Perhaps, shuttering the organization, bulldozing the buildings, burning the rubble, encapsulating the ashes in concrete, and starting afresh in establishing an indigenous defense establishment would help, because, based on the performance that I’ve seen, this is the most screwed up defense procurement establishment in the world.

Airbus Says A320 W/GTF Could Be Ready in 30 Months

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They are saying that it would take two and half years to integrate P&W’s geared turbofan into the A320.

The end date would depend on when they started, and at this point, a stumbling block would be that P&W is not releasing maintenance costs specifics.

When one considers the fact that what killed Thielert was the frequency of maintenance, and that the primary concern over the GTF is maintenance, so I would not expect any effort to integrate the engine until Pratt & Whitney either gives some guarantees, or there is some data on the wing in commercial service.

Epic Fail

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So, WaPo scribe Krissah Williams Thompson is talking with some young Republicans at a bar, that she describes as, “A who’s who of young conservatives,” and they are bumming.

Let’s see, we have:

  • The 20-something who helped steer Fred Thompson’s Internet operation.
  • The young woman who put Mitt Romney’s Web site on the map.
  • A 24-year-old staffer for Newt Gingrich’s American Solutions for Winning the Future.
  • Editor in chief of the Heritage Foundation’s Web site.
  • A full time blogger at Townhall.com.

Ummmm….I thought that conservatives were supposed to feel crappy when they failed. That they objected to efforts to raise self esteem absent of accomplishment.

When you are failures, you are supposed to feel bad.

Fitch Now Predicting ANOTHER 25% Drop in House Prices

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This was a part of their updating their ResiLogic mortgage loss model, which is used to rate residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), and they now believe that in constant dollar terms, residential real estate will fall 25% over the next 5 years.

Peak to trough, local housing bubbles bursting are typically 5 years, but this is far more widespread, and the bubble is far frothier.

I think that they are too optimistic. They ignore the size of the bubble, the national nature of the bubble, and the fact that unsustainably low interests created the bubble.

I agree with Rich Toscano’s assessment he did two years ago, which was far grimmer, (a 3-parter, see here, here, and here), though it should be noted that it’s primarily about San Diego, one of the frothier markets before the bubble burst.