Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Afghanistan is Getting Much Worse

This was not a lucky shot or roadside bomb…this was a deliberate can extensively planned assault that killed 9 US troops.

They assaulted this base base with a large number of insurgents over a period of hours (see also here).

This sort of large and well organized operation shows a capability that the Taliban has not demonstrated before, and I can’t help but think that this is a prelude to a more ambitious operation.

Citi’s Off Books Entities

Here’s am interesting take on the financial health of Citigroup.

The new CEO says that shrinking its $2.2 trillion balance sheet is a priority. By this he means that he wants to minimize potential liabilities, but he neglects to mention an additional $1.1 trillion in entities that are off the balance sheet, in things like trusts, financing vehicles, and CDOs.

The US system needs a major clean up and some sunlight, but companies like Citi resemble vampires, or at least some suffering from severe porphyria.

Showing the light of day to these financial concerns will kill many of them.

Noriel Roubini Nails the Core Problem

While writing on the impending bailouts of the GSEs he notes that:

The reality is that the U.S. has invested too much – especially in the last eight years – in building its stock of wasteful housing capital (whose effect on the productivity of labor is zero) and has not invested enough in the accumulation of productive physical capital (equipment, machinery, etc.) that leads to an increase in the productivity of labor and increases long run economic growth.

This is exactly the problem.

In fact the problem is more general. Our economy is no longer producing goods and service of value as a means of activity. Instead it is moving towards arbitrage, and at some point, there will be too many balls in the air for it to continue.

For all I know, it may already have happened.

Czechs Experience Difficulty with Russian Pipeline

Well, the Czechs have signed a deal with the US to install an ABM radar which is clearly directed at least as much at the Russia as at Iran, and they are shocked to discover that there are problems with oil deliveries:

Shipments to Czech oil refineries through the Druzhba pipeline, which ties Siberian fields to the Czech Republic, are declining, the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade said. It did not say by how much.

You sign off on a policy that is pretty explicitly threaten Russia, and you are surprised when they retaliate?

What planet are you on?

And Speaking of Idiots…

Cynthia McKinney got the Green Party nomination.

I have had discussions with her constituents, and it’s clear that she is a smaller version of George W. Bush.

She is where she is because of who her daddy was, and her tenure as a member of congress was disastrous. When things needed to be done in the district, regardless of which side the political divide you were on, meeting were scheduled to make sure she could not attend, because she would screw up any consensus and generally throw fits.

I don’t think that this is the year to vote for a 3rd party candidate, but I consider that to be a matter of the reader’s personal conscience, particularly in safe states like Texas or Massachusetts.

However I strongly suggest that voting for this third party candidate is a betrayal of your obligation to cast your vote in a meaningful way.

She was right about distrusting Bush, but a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Check out her record. Talk with her former constituents, and then vote for someone else.

12:10 AM

Amity Shlaes is an Idiot

As I have blogged before, Amity Shlaes is a complete pratt, which explains why this was published in the craptacular Washington Post OP/ED pages.

I have no clue as to her basic level of intellect, she could simply be that stupid, or be paid to say these things, but in either case, the effect is the same, that I would not trust her with any implement sharper than a bowling ball.

In this case, she is offering a full throated defense of Phil Gramm’s calling the US a nation of whiners, because people are worrying about the recession.

She offers a number of defenses:

  • That there is no recession because GDP grew in the last quarter measured.

Wrong when inflation is put in the measure, even the bogus core CPI that is used.

  • That Phil Gramm subsequently said that he meant only politicians.

Again, disengenous at best, he said nation of whiners, and Gramm would never miss an opportunity to go after the now Democratic controlled Congress.

  • She claims because people who lost their homes during the depression had only borrowed 10% of their home purchase, while people now borrowed more than 90% of that price.

Again, losing a home is losing a home, and the increased level of leverage is an artifact increases in the price of a home which have been driven upward by policies to “increase home ownership”. Losing your home is losing your home.

  • Claiming that unemployment is still at historic lows when anyone who studies unemployment knows that the U3 numbers has been massaged over the past 30 years to near statistical worthlessness.

Of course, as a wingnut, I would expect her to ignore that many of these problems came from legislation that was proposed by Gramm, so her ignoring the context, that the architect of the policies that created this crisis is complaining that we are “whining” about the economy, is part of her job description.

Federal Reserve Extends Cash for Crap Program to Fannie and Freddie

So, the GSE’s have now been told that they may avail themselves of the Fed’s discount window, the same thing that has been done for the investment banks.

Additionally, we have the Treasury Department saying that it would increase its line of credit to them, and that they will try to get permission to buy shares in the GSE’s in an emergency from Congress.

Government support has always been implied with the GSEs, it’s why they are government chartered institutions, though this is unfolding sooner, and more quickly than I would have anticipated.

FWIW, it appears to have calmed things on the Asian markets…for now.

Stopped Rotor Still Being Pursued

Boeing has been working on stopped rotor concept helos, where the rotor is stopped and functions as a wing at high speed, for years, despite the crashes of both of its prototype X-50 canard rotor wing (CRW) demonstrators.

Well, it looks like they folks at Boeing, Mesa* have come up with a a less ambitious take on this concept that has not yet crashed.

It is significantly simplified, dispensing with the tip jet power for the main rotor, and using a conventional tail rotor, and the wings pivot, so as to reduce the amount that they reduce lift during takeoff.

Here we have:

Takeoff


Transition to low speed forward flight.


High speed compound helicopter mode.


Stopped rotor

*Formerly McDonnell Douglas helicopters, formerly Hughes Helicopter. They make the Apache.

Updated Flanker Shown

The Russians are now showing their SU-35 Flanker derivative prototype to air force officials and foreign representatives.

Note that, somewhat confusedly, this is the second aircraft designated Su-35.


It will feature a glass cockpit

Thrust vectoring to replace canards and nose strakes on earlier models for high AoA controllability.

The airbrake has been removed, with differential actuation of flight controls now handling the task reducing weight and allowing for more fuel

And the engines have been upgraded to the tune of about 4000 lbs more thrust each.

These changes, along with other weight reductions in the airframe are supposed to, among other things, give supercruise capability, and it is expected to be fitted with some form of phased array radar.

I’m inclined to believe that the supercruise will be meaningful in air to air mode, if just because the aircraft carries so much fuel internally anyway that it will only be carrying 8 or so missiles in that configuration.

I think that the desire for supercruise is what drove them away from canards, likely increased transonic and supersonic drag a bit, though I am not an aerodynamicist.

It’s also has a new fly by wire flight control system, and so I’m a bit surprised that they haven’t reduced the size of the vertical tails a bit to cut down on weight and drag.

It should be an impressive aircraft, and competitive, particularly on price, in the export market.

Pull size pics at link.

UN Zimbabwe Resolution Vetoed

Well, the lede here has to be that both China and Russia vetoed sanctions on Zimbabwe. They claim that it is unacceptable “meddling” in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation.

The MDC and ZANU-PF have started negotiations on who negotiations should proceed, which has shades of negotiating on the shape of the table in the 1960s, though with the support of China and Russia (and South Africa which also voted against the sanctions), I rather imagine not much will come of all this.