Author: Matthew G. Saroff

The FOMC Talks, and Says, “Meh”

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It really doesn’t amount to much. Basically just some minor interest rate action:

In a pattern that has become familiar, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that the economy was growing more slowly than it had forecast, in part because its efforts to hasten recovery had proved insufficient.

With the economy stumbling into the summer months after the false promise of a relatively strong winter, the Fed announced a modest expansion of its efforts to stimulate growth.

The Fed said its senior officials now expected growth of 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent this year, half a percentage point lower than they forecast in April. They predicted the unemployment rate would not drop below 8 percent this year, and that inflation would not climb above 1.7 percent.

Those are the vital signs of a patient who will be ill for some time. And the Fed noted that the outlook could worsen if events in Europe unnerved financial markets or if politicians in Washington failed to resolve a stalemate over fiscal policy.

The central bank pledged to buy $267 billion in long-term Treasury securities over the next six months as part of a continuing campaign to reduce borrowing costs.

Like I said, Meh

Wrong Again, Matthew Saroff Edition.

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The Greek Democrats have formed a governing coalition including the 3rd place PASOK party:

A conservative-led government took power in Greece on Wednesday promising to negotiate softer terms on its harsh international bailout, help the people regain their dignity and steer the country through its biggest crisis for four decades.

The swearing-in of Antonis Samaras as prime minister after elections last Sunday ended weeks of uncertainty that rattled financial markets and threatened to push near-bankrupt Greece out of the euro zone.

Samaras, a Harvard-educated economist from a prominent Greek family, will head an alliance of his New Democracy party and Socialist PASOK rivals – the same discredited establishment parties which have dominated politics since 1974.

I said that it would not happen, and it did.  Oh, well.

BTW, the outgoing PASOK leader, George Papandreu, went to Harvard too (and Amherst, and the London School of Economics).

You know, I think that the value of a Harvard education might be overrated.

Another Wanker of the Day

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Chuck Schumer:

One week after Apple announced it was booting Google Maps from iOS and photographing the world with its own aerial fleet, a top US Senator has written to both companies expressing concern over their “military-grade spy planes.”

“Barbequing or sunbathing in your backyard shouldn’t be a public event,” said Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY) in a statement on Monday. “People should be free from the worry of some high-tech peeping Tom technology violating one’s privacy when in your own home.”

Schumer noted that although Google Maps and Google Earth have used satellite imagery in the past, “reports have suggested” that both Google and Apple have upgraded their capabilities to aircraft-based photography that can see through windows and capture detailed images with four-inch resolution.

Although Schumer specifically mentioned sunbathing – and we never even knew he was a Reg reader – his remarks suggest that his main concern isn’t high-flying voyeurism, but rather intelligence that could aid terroists and other miscreants.

“Detailed photographs could also provide criminals and terrorists with detailed views of sensitive utilities,” he wrote to Apple CEO Tim Cook and Google CEO Larry Page, noting that although there are online sources which currently show such potential targets as power lines, substations, and reservoirs, those images are in low resolution.

“However,” Schumer surmised, “if highly detailed images become available, criminals could create more complete schematic maps of the power and water grids in the United States. With the vast amount of infrastructure across the country, it would be impossible to secure every location.”

So, we have yet another participant in the war against maps.

Let’s keep everyone ignorant, because someone might do something bad with information someday.

Dumbass.

New Protests at Tahrir Square

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And I still don’;t expect any pro-democracy actions to be taken by our government, because, after all, the Egyptians buy our weapons, not Russian weapons:

Tens of thousands have gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square to protest against a decision by the ruling military council to assume new powers.

The protests were called by the Muslim Brotherhood, as it claims its candidate won last weekend’s presidential poll.

His rival, former PM Ahmed Shafiq, also says he has won.

Wanker of the Day

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Senator Scott Brown:

Senator Scott Brown today rejected a debate proposed by Victoria Reggie Kennedy, after the widow of Senator Edward M. Kennedy refused his precondition that she not endorse a candidate in his reelection campaign against Democrat Elizabeth Warren.

“We respect Vicki Kennedy’s decision but we regret that we cannot accept a debate invitation from someone who plans to endorse Scott Brown’s opponent,” Brown Campaign Manager Jim Barnett said in a statement. “The Kennedy Institute cannot hold itself out as a nonpartisan debate sponsor while the president of its board of trustees gets involved in the race on behalf of one of the candidates.”

The announcement came shortly after representatives of Vicki Kennedy said she would not agree to Brown’s demand that she remain neutral in the race, in exchange for the senator’s participation in a late September debate she had proposed be hosted by the University of Massachusetts Boston and Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate.

Barnett had said Monday that Brown would participate only if Kennedy, president of the board at the Kennedy Institute, not endorse in the race and that MSNBC not be the broadcast sponsor of the debate.

What a whiny bitch.

He’s (rightly) terrified that Elizabeth Warren will have his sorry ass for lunch, so he’s making up excuses.

Snark of the Day

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Jonathan Chait, writing in the New York Magazine, has an article, titled, “Beltway Sleazeoids Concerned About Partisanship, about Howard Kurtz’s puff piece on the joint venture between Michael Steele (Mr. Foot in Mouth), and Lanny Davis (Lobbyists for brutal dictators).

His criticism is that Kurtz is far to credulous, and far too laudatory, of their efforts.

I agree. Even on a cursory examination, this is clearly concern trolling for lobbying dollars.

What stands out though is his slam against Howie for his lack of journalistic integrity:

There’s an old saying, “patriotism is the last refuge of scoundrels,” but patriotism’s scoundrel-cleansing abilities have worn off with time. The newest refuge is surely bipartisanship. Thus, deposed Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele and disgraced lobbyist Lanny Davis have formed their own firm. Howard Kurtz reports — or, at any rate, writes down — that Steele and Davis are pitching their firm dedicated to urging people to “tone down the negativity and personal attacks.”

(emphasis mine)

The criticism for years about Kurtz has been two fold, that he has a conflict of interest because his wife is a paid political operator, and that he is little more than a stenographer for the conservative side of the Beltway consensus.

As to the stenography allegation, Chait must be commended for being clever, clear, and original in his statements.

Heh.

The Egyptian Coup is in Progress

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So, now that the Muslim Brotherhood candidate is winning the presidential election, the military has taken what amounts to complete power:

Egypt’s generals awarded themselves sweeping political powers in an 11th-hour constitutional declaration that tied the hands of the country’s incoming president and cemented military authority over the post-Mubarak era.

The announcement on Sunday night came as early presidential election results put the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi ahead of his rival Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak’s final prime minister and an unabashed champion of the old regime. But with thousands of polling stations yet to declare following the two-day runoff vote, the overall winner was too close to call.

Pro-change activists and human rights campaigners said the junta’s constitutional declaration – which came just days after judges extended the army’s ability to arrest civilians and following the dissolution of the Brotherhood-dominated parliament by the country’s top court – rendered the scheduled handover of power to a democratically elected executive meaningless.

The Brotherhood was quick to label the declaration “null and unconstitutional”, raising the prospect of a dramatic showdown within the highest institutions of the state.

They gave themselves the power to write legislation and draft budgets, which is pretty much the whole ball of wax, since they have shown that they already own the courts.

Quislings

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A number of West Virginia “Democrats” who qualify as super delegates have announced that they won’t be attending the convention because they do not want to be supporting Barack Obama:

Democratic West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin says he won’t attend the party’s national convention, citing serious problems with President Barack Obama.

A Tomblin spokesman, Chris Stadelman, said Monday that the governor has serious problems with Republican Mitt Romney, too.

Tomblin is an automatic superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention. He says his time is best spent working in West Virginia, not attending the four-day political rally in Charlotte, N.C.

In West Virginia’s presidential primary, Tomblin refused to say whether he voted for Obama.

Tomlbin isn’t alone in sitting this one out — West Virginia’s Sen. Joe Manchin and congressman Nick Rahall say they don’t plan to attend the convention, either.

What they are really saying is that they don’t want to be seen as supporting Barack Obama, because their voters are from West Virginia, and he’s a Ni*bong*. (Blazing Saddles reference)

Wankers.

There is a level of sacrifice to be made by people in leadership positions, and this ain’t it.

I’m not saying that you have to go, but as a person in a leadership position in the party, you don’t advertise the fact.

The Bad Guys Win in Greece

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I’m not sure what the right path is, but Antonis Samaras and the New Democracy Party, which appears to have eked out a 2% win, are not it.

They are the ones who created the crisis in the first place, working with Goldman Sachs to create the swaps that masked the debt.

I don’t see a government coming from this.

SYRISA, the leftist party, and close 2nd place finisher, wants to completely renegotiate the bailout agreement, and PASOK (Socialist in name only and almost as corrupt as the New Democracy Party) which fell even further as a 2rd place finisher has said that it will not join a government without SYRISA.

ND needs 43 seats to gain a majority, they have 108 in the 300 seat parliament, but SYRISA and PASOK have 104 together, which means that they would either need to go hard right (which would have to include the facist/neo-Nazi Golden Dawn) or try to thread the needle with the left of center, but not as left of center as SYRISA, Democratic Left, and the Independent Greeks, who were formed by politicians thrown out of ND when they voted against the austerity packages.

Not a clue as to how this will shake out.

Another Busy Bank Failure Friday

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Three banks this week, four last week, following a three week lull.

Not a trend by any means, but definitely not reassuring.

Here they are, numbered for your amusement

  1. Putnam State Bank, Palataka, FL
  2. Security Exchange Bank, Marietta, GA
  3. The Farmers Bank of Lynchburg, Lynchburg, TN

Full FDIC list

So, here is the graph pr0n with last years numbers for comparison (FDIC only):

I’m not sure if the little uptick means anything at all.

Who Says that Irony is Dead?

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I present to you the The Karl Marx MasterCard:

No, this is not a photoshop.

Some context:

Two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, some eastern Germans are once again carrying round images of Karl Marx – if only in their pockets.

The disappearance of communist former East Germany has not deterred them from using credit cards emblazoned with the image of the man who foretold the end of capitalism and the triumph of communism.

More than a third of customers at Sparkasse bank in Chemnitz opted for the picture of a bronze bust of the bearded 19th century German-born philosopher, bank spokesman Roger Wirtz said.

Marx’s stern face is depicted gazing towards the logo of Mastercard.

Excuse while my head explodes. <Jimi Hendrix guitar riff>

Eclipse to Restart Production

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I thought that they were dead, but it appears that repirts if its death are greatly exaggerated🙁paid subscription required)

As Eclipse Aerospace loads the jig for its first new-production very-light jet, the company’s ambitions are not those of its predecessor, which failed spectacularly in its bid to blacken the sky with low-cost air taxis. The new company instead aims to make a solid profit on modest production.

The original Eclipse Aviation was formed in 1998 with the vision of selling thousands of million-dollar jets into a booming air-taxi market. But its biggest customer, unable to raise financing in an economic downturn, closed its doors in 2008, taking with it 1,400 of the 2,600 orders on the books.

The new-build Eclipse 550 will have better cockpit displays and processors, synthetic and enhanced vision and autothrottle.

Eclipse’s business model was based on high volume, and the failure of air-taxi operator DayJet helped push the company into bankruptcy and eventually liquidation. Its successor has a more moderate approach, with a slow production ramp targeting a recovery in the global business-jet market by around 2014-15.

“We are not in the same position as other manufacturers,” says Chairman and CEO Mason Holland. “We are growing the business at a measured pace behind the speed at which the market is moving, where others have had to consolidate and cut back to get down to the pace of the market.”

The first new-production Eclipse 550, an improved version of the original Eclipse 500, is slated for delivery in July-August 2013 and, where the original company built more than 100 aircraft in its first full production year, Eclipse Aerospace is targeting 45-50 deliveries in 2014.

It’s still (relatively) cheap, just under $3 million, which is well above what they were selling the aircraft for when they went belly up, it’s still at a good price point.

Gripen Plans Progress

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It looks like the Swiss and the Swedes have got their program together:

Provided nationally endorsed plans in Sweden and Switzerland survive political or economic upsets, the JAS 39E/F, the product of the Gripen Demo and Next Generation programs, will be delivered to customers in 2018. This will mean that Saab and its supplier team will have created what is in most respects an entirely new aircraft, compared to the original JAS 39A/B, since development of the in-service C/D started in June 1997.

This has been done so far under fixed-price contracts for development, new production and retrofits, according to a presentation by FMV, the Swedish defense procurement organization. After the delivery of the last Gripen C/D, Saab returned an unspecified sum of money to the Swedish government because costs were lower than predicted.

More details of the JAS 39E/F emerged at an aerospace conference hosted by the Swedish air force and Saab earlier this month at Malmen air base, and attended by current and prospective Gripen operators.

The schedule is set by two interlocking commitments. The Swedish government has decided to replace the C/D with the E/F and has committed to developing the aircraft in time to support Switzerland’s requirements. The Swiss government has selected the E/F as the sole affordable replacement for the F-5E/F, and subject to a referendum and negotiations will sign a contract in 2014, triggering a full-scale go-ahead by Sweden .

Some development work will continue to lay the foundation for the four-year program. As long as the political process stays on track, the first of two built-from-the-ground-up E/F development aircraft, identified as 39-8, will fly in late 2013. The Gripen Demo has been equipped with a prototype of the Selex Raven ES-05 active, electronically scanned array radar and will be used to test the E/F’s revised avionics system and weapons.

The E/F airframe will be largely new, although it should be possible to use some major components from existing C/D airframes, including the wings. Mid and aft fuselage sections will be new, to accommodate the General Electric F414 engine (and its larger airflow) and the new landing gear. The blended wing-body sections will be larger, placing the wing attachment points an estimated 30 in. farther apart. The goal is to maintain the same wing loading for the E/F’s 2.5-ton increase in gross weight. The body will be slightly longer, maintaining or improving fineness ratio. Sources suggest the design will incorporate F-35-style diverterless supersonic inlets.

So, it looks like the New Gripen is going to be basically a new aircraft.

One of the interesting points is that they intend a large amount of systems commonality between the E/F and the C/D, particularly in terms of upgrades, which can serve to address concerns about the costs of upgrades, which Norway used as an alibi to select the F-35. 

It should that this did problem did occur with Italy, when they were the sole customer for the Sparrow capable F-104S, and were stuck with shouldering upgrades on their own.

Seeing as how the Gripen is about half the direct operating cost of the Typhoon and Rafale, and probably less than 1/3 that of the F-35, I think that it continues to occupy a niche at the low end of the market.