Author: Matthew G. Saroff

There is a Reason that I Declared them “They Who Must Not Be Named”

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But that hasn’t stopped the Voice of American from recruiting them to try and pacify angry people in the Middle East:

In what is evidently an attempt to mitigate the damage caused by Koran-burning pastors, the US government will attempt to dissuade outraged citizens of the Middle East from joining al-Qaeda by beaming Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashian and Britney Spears across the Voice of America’s airwaves.

According to Press Gazette, Splash News and Pictures will provide a half-hour weekly show packed with meaty celebutardiness, aimed at winning the hearts and minds of those still undecided whether Holy War or Hollywood is the way to go.

First, I will note that if VoA is doing this, the Arab world is going to try and beat us to death with their bare hands.

Second, I have not yet put Kim Kardashian on my list of They Who Must Not Be Named, but ………

Wait for it ………

Wait for it ………

Wait for it ………

She is now.

Great googly moogley.

SNATCHING DEFEAT FROM THE JAWS OF VICTORY

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The Democrats, Again, of course.

After Boehner’s surprise statement, it looks like the Obama White House is trying to take advantage of this, and paint the Republicans with the “Daddy Warbucks” brush and splinter the Republican caucus, which is good, but a aide for the House leadership just said that the house will not vote on the tax cuts, which is significant because the Constitution says that tax bills have to start with the house.

My guess is that this is someone Steny Hoyer’s office, who is attempting to suck up to the Blue Dog types, who are trying to insist on tax cuts for the big donors.

And on the Senate, we have the preening sociopath narcissists Ben Nelson says that he might support a filibuster, while Mr. “That contemptible rat-f%$# who isn’t with us on everything but the war” Joe Lieberman both saying that he will support a filibuster.

What is good politics and good policy right now is for Barack Obama to say that he will veto any bill that grants tax breaks to people making more than a $¼ million.

It would be useful to show that Obama can draw a line in the sand, because at this point, no one believes that he can.

So Not Done In Iraq

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More combat action from our troops, notwithstanding the fact that our combat presence has ended:

American military units fired on insurgents while supporting Iraqi troops northeast of the capital on Sunday, Iraqi officials said. It was the second such episode since the United States declared an end to its combat operations in Iraq less than two weeks ago.

There were no American casualties in the fighting in Hudaidy, a village about 50 miles from Baghdad that has long harbored members of the Sunni insurgent group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

They are just, “advisers,” and Oceania has always been at war with East Asia.

How Barack Obama Could Appoint Elizabeth Warren, and Why He Won’t

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Under the Dodd-Frank bill, there is a provision that allows Timothy Geithner to appoint a head to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau until such time as the Senate approves a nominee:

According to the bill’s language, the Treasury Secretary has sole authority to build the new agency before it’s ultimately transferred to the Federal Reserve. That includes anointing a person to head the effort on his behalf, and under his authority. The interim head would serve until the President’s nominee is confirmed by the Senate.

That person could be Elizabeth Warren.

And the legislation doesn’t appear to contain a deadline for a Presidential nomination, experts say, which means Warren could start the agency from scratch, put her people in, begin cracking down on predatory and abusive lenders, and initiate a culture that would put consumers’ interests above those of the nation’s most powerful financial institutions.

What is interesting here is that this is not a recess appointment, and so is not subject to the limitations, such as the requirement that their appointment expires at the end of the current Congress in January, 2010.

Theoretically, if Warren were appointed, she could serve for decades without Senatoriual approval.

So, Warren could be appointed, and be on the job, tomorrow, and the only way to remove her would be for the Republicans not to filibuster her in the Senate, and hope that she is defeated by 51 votes on the floor, which won’t happen, because any Democrat who votes against her has the party base campaigning against him or her in the next election cycle.

So, why don’t I think that Obama will do this? Because in so doing, he would energize the Democratic Party base, who would then come out and vote for Democrats in 2010:

Within hours and possibly minutes I expect the president will name Elizabeth Warren to lead the new consumer protection agency, and if he does, the Democratic base will erupt and turn out to vote in far greater numbers than any current poll suggests.*

The thing is that I believe that there are two dominant schools of thought in the White House:

  • Those who believe that appealing the the base will always be a net loser in terms of elections. (Rahm)
  • Those who actively hate the Democratic Party base, which they see as irrational, unrealistic, a part of the hyper-partisan atmosphere in Washington, and terrifying to the fictitious middle of the road voters in off year elections. (Barack Obama)

Basically, in order for such an act to be taken, the core philosophies of the power centers in the White House have to be repudiated by the people who hold them.

This won’t happen, because even if these decisions help the party, they diminish the power of Emanuel and Obama’s philosophies within the party, which makes it a sort of perverse manifestation of the Iron Law of Institutions, (on edit see this Google link, because one of the purity asshole brigade at Wikipedia deleted the link) which states that, “the people who control institutions care first and foremost about their power within the institution rather than the power of the institution itself.”

*I would note that the author is already wrong, having posted this on Thursday, September 9, and we have had no announcement.

Boehner Blinks

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After threatening to take down any tax proposal that did not keep the tax breaks for the Leona “Only the little people pay taxes” Helmsley rich folk, David “Nicotine Stained Face” Boehner has agreed to support tax cuts for the remaining 98% of us.

I think that this is really a change in tactics: He knows that he cannot stop the tax cuts from expiring in the House, and that there is a realistic chance of taking the house, so he will go with the electoral politics that show that over ⅔ of voters support letting the “rich bitch” tax cuts expire, so he will let the Senate, where the chances of a Republican take over are smaller, filibuster this to death.

My response to both of them would be to remind them that the inheritance tax goes way up next year if nothing is done, and if something reasonable does not get through the Congress, then there all the taxes come back full force, but of course, I’m not being all hopey-changey and attempting bipartisanship.

Personally, I’d take the top rate, cutting at somewhere north of 10 million a year, back to around 94%, but then again, I’m just a DFH.*

*Dirty F%$#ing Hippy.

This is a Google Adsense On Drugs, Any Questions?

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One Step Forward, One Step Back

Well, Google™ Adsense™ gets one right, for a change.

I live in Maryland, and I am a Democrat, and in any case Robert “Bad Hair” Ehrlich is a complete prat.

I would also note that in 2004, I exchanged about 20 words with Martin O’Malley, and was convinced that he would be president one day.

He is an impressive candidate, and I think that it is likely that he will throw his hat into the ring in 2012 2016.

This ad takes you to Martin O’Malley/Anthony Brown campaign’s home page.

But after they get one right, they put up an ad for the Freedom Works teabagger AstroTurf 9/12 rally. (sorry, no link to those evil f%$#s, not even with the “nofollow” tag.)

I wonder why about 95% of the political ads that show up on my page are all about conservative causes though.

As for the rest, they seem to be HAMP scams.

**sigh**

Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Ruled Unconstitutional

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One of the interesting things here is that the judge, Virginia Phillips, has ruled that, the policy has a, ” ‘direct and deleterious effect’ on the armed services, which will make the overturn at the appellate level more difficult, since appeals are typically based on matters of law, and this is a determination of fact, but note that I’m an engineer, not a lawyer, dammit!*

The judge will be issuing an injunction against separations, but will be giving the government time to appeal before doing so, so I expect another round of accelerated witch hunts in the Pentagon over the next few weeks.

This is an acid test of the Obama administration’s dedication to gay rights. If they go for a stay, i.e. keep expelling gays from the military, during appeals, they are not merely doing their duty to defend existing laws, as they have previously argued, they are actively and aggressively anti-gay rights.

My money is on Obama making the wrong decision both morally and politically, and going full bore against this decision, because I think that, much like Bill Clinton, there is a level of political, if not personal revulsion, against “te ghay” that drives them to do truly stupid and hateful things.

*I LOVE IT when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!

It Looks Like a Commenter on the Blog Will Become Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors

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Austan Goolsbee, who I’ve posted about a dozen times or so, objected to a post of mine, and I (with permission) posted his response to my blog.

Well, Goolsbee has written extensively suggesting that things like Obama’s proposed R&D tax cut don’t offer a whole bunch of bang for the buck, though he has argued that he thinks the current situation **cough** incipient deflationary spiral **cough** create a somewhat different dynamic.

Well, the scuttlebutt is that Dr. Gooolsbee is going to replace Christina Romer as the chairman of the President’s CEA, and J.W. Mason has the best line that I’ve heard in a while about this:

Looks like Goolsbee is the perfect pick to succeed Romer — his advice is already being ignored even before he’s been hired.

It’s a reference to the fact that Romer’s thoughts on the stimulus were not even passed on to Barack Obama for review, and the point being made is that in a choice between economists and the economy (Goolsbee, Volker), and shills for finance and the finance industry (Summers, Geithner), that Obama will go with the latter unless absolutely forced to do so.

It’s a great line.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!! (on Saturday Night)

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I’ve been off line for Rosh Hashana, so this is a day late.

And the FDIC is back in action, albeit in a low key way, with only 1 bank closure:

  1. Horizon Bank , Bradenton, FL

I am not sure why a small suburb in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area has had 4 banks fail in the past 4 years, see the Full FDIC list, but only one bank failure is a slow day.

Also, here is the Full NCUA list of credit union closings.

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

Actually, it may have more use. There seems to be a pattern of a lull, and then an outbreak, so Yom Kippur, next Friday, may be a bad day for banks.

911, 9 Years on

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I don’t think that I can really say anthing about the 9th anniversary of the 911 attacks, beyond the humor and sociology in this picture:

I find this really, Really funny.

I think that I would have always found this funny, but it’s not an amusement that I would have felt comfortable sharing until very recently, and now, it’s the sort of thing that I would email to friends.

I’m not sure what it all means, but then again, I rarely am sure.

H/t Dc at the by invitation only Stellar Parthenon BBS.

Offline for 3 Days

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It’s Rosh Hashanah starting this evening, so between this and the Shabbos* following I am offline until Saturday evening, though I have queued stuff various non time-sensitive stuff up, so scroll down.

Note that this notice will stay at the top of the blog until Saturday evening.

*The Jewish Sabbath, which runs from Friday evening through Saturday Sundown.

Swiss Freeze Fighter Purchase

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I think that the Swiss decision to delay any decision on fighter purchases has a number of causes.

First, they realize that changes in banking regulation may cut seriously into their revenues, and second, I think that they may be able to get some lightly used fighters cheaply from bankrupt nations like Spain, who is on the hook for a significant numbers of Eurofighter Typhoon:

Switzerland on Wednesday postponed its search for new air force fighter jets for several years, just weeks before it was expected to announce a decision on the multibillion dollar tender.

Swiss Defence Minister Ueli Maurer said at a news conference that the postponement of the replacement of about half of the Swiss army’s ageing fleet of F-5 Tiger aircraft “will last at most until 2015”.

The tender launched in January 2008 led to a fierce battle between European aerospace group EADS’s Eurofighter, French firm Dassault’s Rafale and the Gripen built by Sweden’s Saab.

I think that this impacts Saab more than Dassault or Eurofighter, as they really need a foreign client for their Gripen NG.

I Expect This to Be a Prelude to Regulatory Capitulation

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The FCC is now saying that it will delay any ruling on net neutrality until after the election.

I take this as a sign that Obama, and FCC Chair Genachowski intend to sell out completely to the incumbent telcos and cable companies, but they do not want to enrage the netroots base, as well of the users of a little service called Facebook, see the survey numbers on social media users, really care about preserving net neutrality.

In my opinion, they are waiting until after the election to screw the base in order to benefit the big players, and they know that this will cost them votes if it comes out in September of October.

I should note however, that the redoubtable Harold Feld, who does this for a living, is more optimistic than I am about such things.

Obama is Losing Bob Reich

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He cuts Obama a new one over his proposed corporate giveaways:

President Obama reportedly will propose two big corporate tax cuts this week.

……

The economy needs two whopping corporate tax cuts right now as much as someone with a serious heart condition needs Botox.

Mr. Reich took a lot of crap when he endorsed Barack Obama early in the primary cycle, because he was Bill Clinton’s former Labor Secretary, and has pretty consistently been an Obama fanboi.

When you are pissing off people like him, you are driving your somewhat less involved and motivated voters who might vote for you deeply into their couches.

This will be an ugly election.