Author: Matthew G. Saroff

New $100 Bill

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Defense Against the Counterfeiters from Langley

So, the 100 dollar bill has been revealed.

Nominally, it is intended to defeat the “Super Bill,” which primarily occupies the world outside of the US, which is printed by ………… Well, we don’t know, but my money is that it’s someone inside the US government, because of the following bits of information:

Simply put, if you want to pay someone off, and you don’t want a budget item that says, “Bribe made to Adnan Khashoggi,” it’s just a lot cheaper to have a budget for, “Miscellaneous printing.”

I could be wearing a tinfoil hat on this one, but I think that someone in the US collection of TLA’s (Three Letter Acronyms) in the intelligence community knows more about the super bills than they are telling.

On Arizona’s Immigration Law

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I tend to be a hard-ass on immigration. I tend to refer to them as “illegal,” not “undocumented,” and I favor strict penalties against those who negligently (the current standard is knowingly) employ illegal aliens/

I also understand the reality of the situation, that about ⅓ of illegals in the US entered illegally and overstayed their visas, which means that they are not the stereotypical Hispanic, and that much of the immigration fraud in the US occurs in things like the H1B and L1A visas, who are overwhelmingly not Hispanic, where a significant proportion of the visas are granted in violation of the regulations.

That being said, Arizona’s new immigration law sucks. (Google news link)

Basically, it’s an excuse for police officers to stop, detain, and arrest people for “driving while Hispanic.”

It’s standard Republican populist bigotry and racism.

Obama’s Speech

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I saw it, actually read it in the closed caption, I was at the gym on a stationary bicycle, and my reaction was that it was a missed opportunity.

He asked the banks to get on board, basically scolding them, but did not name names, or otherwise get medieval on them.

The American public hates the big banks, which, BTW, should be referred to exclusively as Wall Street Banks, even if the effect on poll numbers on financial reform are minor, as I have argued.

The bankers are not stake holders, they are malefactors, and should be treated as such.

Saying, “Can’t we all just get along,” is both bad politics, and bad policy.

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell by 24,000 to 456,000, not as good as forecast, and the 4-week moving average rose slightly, while continuing claims fell by 40,000 to 4.65 million, though, as always, the last number does not count those (like me) collecting extended unemployment benefits.

In inflation land, we had the producer price index rise by 0.7% in March, giving an annual rate of inflation of over 8½%, though the year over year increase is 6%, and for the core rate, which strips out food and energy, the increase was only 0.1% for the month and 0.9% year over year.

Of concern is the fact that food prices rose by 2.4% in March, a 26 year high.

In real estate, the Architecture Billings Index fell, indicating future contraction in the construction of commercial real estate, while mortgage applications rose, largely on lower rates.

In home sales, we saw a 6.8% spike last month. This was almost certainly driven by the home buyer tax credit that is due to expire on April 20, so we’ll see what the April, and May numbers look like.

In energy and currency, oil rose slightly on good earnings reports, and the Euro took a hit on new Greek deficit numbers.

Have I Mentioned that I Love Jon Stewart?

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Well Bernard Goldberg, former CBS news man, and the slightly smarter side of the comedy team Goldberg and Goldberg (Bernie and Jonah, no relation and in particular order), had decided to challenge Jon Stewart once again.

Bad move, dude.

Jon Stewart responds, and this time he has backup of gospel singers:

It is a righteous take-down, but damn, Jews can’t dance to gospel for sh%$.*

*So says this yid.

Never Stop Your Enemy from Stepping On His Own Dick

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When you’re in Leno’s monologue, YOU ARE COMPLETELY SCREWED

As I have mentioned a number of times, Harry Reid is polling horribly in his bid for reelection.

In fact, his poll numbers are so bad that it appeared that his only hope was that there was a possible teabagger 3rd party candidate.

Well, it looks like the the Republican front runner just threw a life line to the Senate Majority Leader, or more accurately, she threw herself an anvil.

You see, she made a statement about how barter should be an important part of healthcare.

When I first heard this, I assumed that this was someone misspeaking and confusing “barter” and “bargain”.

I was wrong. She really meant barter, as in chickens for MRI’s:

The feathers are flying in the political attacks over Nevada Republican Senate candidate Sue Lowden’s declarations that people could control health care costs through the use of barter.

On Monday, Lowden doubled down on the barter idea. “Let’s change the system and talk about what the possibilities are. I’m telling you that this works,” Lowden said. “You know, before we all started having health care, in the olden days, our grandparents, they would bring a chicken to the doctor. They would say I’ll paint your house.”

(emphasis mine)

So, not only is she eschewing healthcare reform, she is apparently opposed to the very concept of money, the center of our financial system.*

So, she’s not just a Republican, she is an Anarcho syndicalist, opposed to the very concept of money, or she’s a complete moron, or maybe both.

In any case, Senator Reid, it’s better to be lucky than good, and you just got lucky.

*OK, money and greed……†
†……OK, money, greed, and fractional-reserve banking……‡
‡…………OK, money, greed, fractional-reserve banking, and a well defined system of contract law ……………… Oh, never mind.

Signs of the Apocalypse

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Starts at 2:05

On Morning Joe, Mark Halperin, a long time hack best known for the phrase, “Matt Drudge rules our world,” feels compelled to call it for what it is when he says, “They are willfully misreading the bill or they are engaged in a cynical attempt to keep the president from achieving something.” (emphasis mine)

Except for the fact that he should have said and not or, he is telling the truth, and when Mark Halperin feels compelled to call bullsh%$, you know that Republican spin has crossed some sort of “Shoe Event Horizon” where the normal punditocracy simply ceases to function.

The first part of the video is Austan Goolsbee ably defending the program (full disclosure, I made a post that he objected to in the comments, see here, and I posted his response here),* but Joe turns to Halperin for a “fair and balanced appraisal, and Halperin calls them full of it too.

H/t Steve Benen.
*I don’t have a problem with his objecting, my family calls me full of it all the time, it sticks in my head because I was stunned that he read my little old blog in his capacity as an economic advisor to the Obama campaign.

Jim Cramer Must Hate Jon Stewart

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These F@#king Guys!

Admittedly, the full 7:47 isn’t about Jim Cramer, just the first 2:28, but anything that finishes with:

You get the sense that if Jim Cramer was around in 1912 he would have said ‘you’re not going to hear this from anyone else, but my sources tell me the Titanic has the best buffet on the high seas. And by the way if you want to get there faster, try the Hindenburg.

Stewart then goes on to the talking heads on the financial networks are describing the case in terms indicative of a, “Traumatic brain injury,” and then he proceeds to describe everything in terms that we can all understand.

And then he gets to Goldman Sachs, and the fact that the fraud division will be getting billions in bonuses, because, I guess, their job is to create fraud, not stop it.

At the end, as a bonus, he describes the Republican mindset on governance.

Economics Update

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Not a bunch of news, but is news is good news, with the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rising sharply.

Additionally, defaults and foreclosures fell in California, though one wonders whether this is a real improvement, or if it’s just that we’ve basically run out of non-delinquent/foreclosed houses.

L’affaire Goldman seems to the primary mover in oil, with strong Goldman earnings driving oil prices higher, while the juxtaposition of the Goldman numbers and the uncertainty about Greece left the dollar mixed.

[on edit]
The Canadian Ddollar has broken the 1:1 ratio with the US dollar, hitting $1.0012 U.S today.

George Washington’s Body to be Exhumed by Irate Librarians

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Yes, it’s in my anxiety closet too.

Archivists have discovered that George Washington borrowed books from the New York Library when he was President, and now owes the equivalent of $300,000.00 in overdue fines:

Founder of a nation, trouncer of the English, God-fearing family man: all in all, George Washington has enjoyed a pretty decent reputation. Until now, that is.

The hero who crossed the Delaware river may not have been quite so squeaky clean when it came to borrowing library books.

The New York Society Library, the city’s only lender of books at the time of Washington’s presidency, has revealed that the first American president took out two volumes and pointedly failed to return them.

At today’s prices, adjusted for inflation, he would face a late fine of $300,000.

So, Mrs. McGreevey is coming after him.

Apologies to Berkeley Breathed for rearranging the frames friom his horizontal format to a vertical one.

I Think That This Is Misleading

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So, Gallup has a poll, which reveals a much higher level of support for regulating “Wall Street” than it does for regulating “Big Banks”.

The net goes from +3% to +14% thus “showing” that regulating Wall Street is much more popular.

The thing is, the delta for “In Favor” is only +4%, and the delta for “No Opinion” is only +3%, and, “Qne can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.”

So, we can say that while the drop in opposition -7% is significant, but the other ones are within the margin of error, though the sample size is ½ that of the full survey, and I am not sure that it effects the MOE.

If you want to argue that this points to a good frame to use on the argument for reform, feel free.

There is a measurable improvement in the polling by using “Wall Street”, but the change in terminology is not a silver bullet to Mitch McConnell’s filibuster werewolf.

Damn, When Goldman Gets an Update Post……

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Click for full size

True Dat!

You know that the Vampire Squid* is “living in interesting times.”

It now appears that governments in both the UK and Germany are calling for investigations of the firm’s dealings.

Additionally, in a splendid piece of electioneering, the Tory opposition is calling for a ban on government contracts for the firm until the investigations are concluded.

Finally, in what might be the ultimate indignity, AIG is looking at suing Goldman Sachs on the insurance policies that it provided, on the theory that they were under no obligation to pay the arsonist who burnt down his own house.

It will be interesting to see where things goes from here.

Even with all the the opprobrium directed at the firm (see the Taibbi quote below), the consensus was that they would skate, because they were “too powerful” for any meaningful action to be taken against them.

If this case cracks that shell, I think that we will see many more rocks overturned to see what lurks beneath.

My guess is that this will all end with a token fine and no admission of wrong-doing, but I would be happy to be wrong.

*Alas, I cannot claim credit for the bon mot describing Goldman Sachs as a, “great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.” This was coined by the great Matt Taibbi, in his article on the massive criminal conspiracy investment firm, The Great American Bubble Machine.

We See the Beginnings of Competence

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About bloody time!

So, after the disastrous negotiations on healthcare with the Republicans, Barack Obama and His Stupid Minions™ begin to get a clue.

On financial reform, Organizing for America, the Obama campaign political arm, is running ads using Republican opposition to financial reform to Wall Street as a club to beat them with.

Certainly, this is better than their strategy on healthcare reform, which was to let Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) sandbag them by engaging in extensive negotiations when she had not the slightest intention of voting for cloture.

H/t FT Alphaville.

No, This is Not a Joke

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The lead SEC attorney in the civil fraud case against Goldman Sachs, aka, “The great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money,”* is one Andrew Matthew Calamari.

I actually went and confirmed it with a Google, and Mr. Calamari is actually the associate regional director for the SEC’s New York office.

No really, click the link, it’s from the SEC.

As Dave Barry would say, “I’m not making this up.”

*Alas, I cannot claim credit for the bon mot describing Goldman Sachs as a vampire squid. This was coined by the great Matt Taibbi, in his article on the massive criminal conspiracy investment firm, The Great American Bubble Machine.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?!?!?!? The Lib-Dems?

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So, following the first televised debate between candidates for Prime Minister in UK history, a confrontation where Liberal-Democrat candidate is generally conceded to have come off best, the party is leading in a number of polls.

Part of the allure of the Lib-Dems is that their policies are objectively, and quite justifiably, punitive towards the banks that created this mess, and they are explicit about the need to downsize the banking sector.

I don’t think that the Lib-Dems will win, there is 100 years of their predecessor of losing elections, and I think that the nature of the constituencies, which are elected in “first past the post” as in the US, make their capturing even 2nd place in the number of seats unlikely.

Still, with 3 weeks to go before the election, it is a surprising development.

Righteous Rant!!!

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It’s worth the 9 minutes and 53 seconds

Peter Schiff on Alan Greenspan:

He’s not just the worst Fed chairman we’ve ever had, he’s the worst American we’ve ever had.

And it only goes up from there.

I would note that Schiff comes an extreme political philosophy, he is a wing-nut Randroid Libertarian,* but this does not mean that this does not bear watching.

It’s amusing, easily understood, and generally in accordance with the facts as we know them.

*He was an economic adviser to Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential campaign.