Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Damn.

So, the House of Representatives by a vote of 307-114 has passed an amendment to the Freedom of Information Act which exempts torture, because, I guess, everyone in Washington wants them covered up, because with knowledge is the possibility of accountability, and accountability is an anathema to the Beltway Boyz.

What is most repulsive is that this is designed just to cover up Bushie malfeasance:

To follow up on my earlier post about Rep. Louis Slaughter (D-N.Y.) and her speech on her colleagues’ move to amend the Freedom of Information Act to prevent the release of photographs depicting abuse of detainees in U.S. custody, it’s worth looking at the conference report on the bill. The bill is called the “Protected National Security Documents Act of 2009,” but refers not to any “documents” per se, but only to any “photograph” taken between Sept. 11, 2001 and Jan. 22, 2009, that “relates to the treatment of individuals engaged, captured, or detained after September 11, 2001, by the Armed Forces of the United States in operations outside of the United States.”

(emphasis mine)

Big surprise, the guy supporting this the strongest is Joe Lieberman.

M4/M16 Problems

One of the things that I did not cover in my discussion of the firefight at Camp Keating was the performance of the weapons there.

Specifically, it appears that the M4s carbines and M249 “Minimi” SAWs started to fail over the course of the fight.

There are a number of links, but this release a draft report from the Combat Studies Institute seems to be the most definitive. (you can see other accounts , here, here, here, and here.

The big issue here is that there are reports of both the M4 and M249 failing as the engagement went forward.

Since both weapons were failing, with one (M4) having a short stroke gas-tube operation, and the other (M249) having a long stroke piston, it’s pretty clear that the method of operation of these weapons are directly responsible for these failures.

Here is what I think is the pertinent quote:

Stafford crawled back up to the protection of the southern post of the OP, where he watched Specialist Bogar put up a heroic defense, nearly single-handedly, with his SAW. Bogar placed it on top of the sandbags, notwithstanding as Stafford noted, “I’m just watching that boulder pop with rounds coming in.” Stafford was badly wounded and drifting in and out of consciousness, but he distinctly remembered, “Bogar had just set his SAW on top of the sandbags and he was just kind of spraying, going through SAW rounds pretty quick. I remember him, loading and spraying, loading and spraying.” At the Crow’s Nest, Specialist Ayers was also going cyclic with the M-240. Stafford also remembered being impressed at the volume of fire that Ayers was pouring out, “I could also hear the 240 going off above me in the Crow’s Nest, because Ayers was just ripping them apart. I could hear Rainey screaming at Ayers not to melt the barrel on the 240 and to control his fires.”

Specialist Bogar fired approximately six hundred rounds at a cyclic rate of fire from his SAW when that weapon became overheated, and eventually jammed the bolt forward. Specialist Stafford noted, “Bogar was still in our hole firing quite a bit. Then Bogar’s SAW jammed. Basically it just got way overheated, because he opened the feed tray cover and I remember him trying to get it open and it just looked like the bolt had welded itself inside the chamber. His barrel was just white hot.”

(emphasis mine)

While I think that “White Hot” is probably an exaggeration, I would think that weapons would fail with the barrel still “cherry” hot, but it appears that there was a lot of shooting going on and the weapons were getting very hot as a result, at which point things like cook-off of rounds, expansion of parts, etc. begin to be a factor.

I will note that the M249 is a weapon that fires from an open bolt, which means that you have to be pumping a lot of rounds down range to get it that hot, so fire discipline, as alluded to in exchange above regarding the M240, a 7.62mm belt machine gun that is essentially the M249’s big brother.

This may have been a situation where the weapons were simply fired beyond their design capabilities.

Part of the reason for this is that the weapons used by both had similar effective ranges.

The AK-47, because of its relative lack of accuracy, is really not effective beyond 200m, particularly in the hands of a typical insurgent, and the M4, with its short (14½”) barrel and relatively light round, lacks lethality beyond that range.

The M16, by contrast, with its longer barrel, would be able to place effective fire on the enemy at more than 300m.

Had the soldiers been using the M16, they would have been able to engage the enemy before the enemy could engage them, and it is not entirely clear to me (please, someone educate me) why the troops were issued a carbine in a non-urban area where engagement distances would likely be longer.

Additionally, it appears that the position was located primarily due to non-combat considerations, which made it less defensible than it should have been.

All of these contributed to a very intense firefight, and it appears that the intensity of the combat was a significant cause as to the failures of these weapons.

Simply put, a personal weapon, or a squad automatic weapon, are not designed to throw that many rounds down range in that short a time.

One question that is not addressed in this report, at least not in this early draft of the report, is whether fire discipline was maintained, or if the troops were reverting to “spray and pray”.

My guess is that fire discipline was maintained, at least to the degree that discipline is possible when you are being attacked by a heavily armed force that outnumbers you, but I have no direct military or combat experience to evaluate this.

That being said, I think that the M4 should be replaced. Most of the other modern western armies, the Germans excepted, have switched to a Bullpup design, and as such, they have longer barrels, and shorter overall lengths than the M4.

See the table below for a comparison:

Weapon Barrel Length Overall Length
M4 14.5 in 29.8 in (stock retracted)
Tavor T.A.R-21 18.1 in 28.5 in

Additionally, while there are advantages to gas tube operation, generally lighter weight and better accuracy because there are fewer moving parts, one consistent complaint about the AR-15 and its children is that the weapons require meticulous, almost obsessive cleaning.

I admire the breakthroughs that Eugene Stoner made when he created the weapon, and many of those innovations, the use of plastics and high-strength lightweight alloys, continue today, but I think that the use of the gas tube has been shown to be problematic.

That being said, I would favor moving to a new weapon, as opposed to something like the gas piston retrofit, as the existing weapon has problems that are inherent in the design (i.e. barrel length and overall length).

In my perfect world, the Army and Marines would purchase one of the Bullpups already in service, as opposed to developing a new weapon itself, but given the nature of defense procurement in the US, particularly the Army Ordinance’s rather parochial view towards foreign weapons, I think that this unlikely.

Note: I have never served, and I’ve never shot anything more substantial than a .22 short rifle for in a riflery class in summer camp, so if I am wrong, please tell me in the comments.

All I ask is some detail. Don’t tell me I’m an idiot, show me that I’m an idiot.

Russia’s Adopts Nuclear First Strike Policy

While worrisome, it represents a reversal of the Soviet/Russian “no first strike” policy adopted in the 1980s, but it should be noted that this new policy will not will be effectively identical to that of the US, which has repudiated calls for it to take a “no first strike” policies since the 1980s.

It’s nothing to tear one’s hair out about, unless you are Georgian President Saakashvili, where it might be seen as a shot across the bow towards NATO involvement in the region….But then again, he doesn’t tear out his hair, he chews on his tie.

“In situations critical for national security, a preventive nuclear strike against the aggressor is not ruled out,” he said.

The section of Russia’s military doctrine about the opportunity to use nuclear weapons was formulated to preserve the status of a nuclear power for the Russian Federation. The document states that Russia can apply nuclear deterrence against potential enemies to prevent aggression against Russia and its allies.

I think that the video below puts everything in decent perspective:

GE Promises 56,000 Lb Thrust F136

Bradley Perrett at Ares notes that GE/Rolls Royce has had this this thrust number floating around since at least 2002, and would compare quite favorably to the 43,000 lbs of thrust available in the F135.

It’s clear that the F136 has a larger core than the F135, but at this point GE/Rolls is arguing that this can allow for greater reliability, and perhaps a few hundred pounds more thrust in STOVL mode for the F-35 JSF

The latter looks significant, as the Royal Navy is looking at a “shipborne rolling vertical landing,” basically a relatively low speed (under 150 km/h) non-arrested (!) landing on a carrier to increase bring-back weapons load and to reduce wear and tear on the engines, for vertical landings.

My guess, as is Mr. Perrett’s, is that the 56,000 lbs is the number that they are designing to for the purpose of creating a margin which would allow for reduced maintenance and capacity for upgrades.

In order to go from 43,000 lbs of thrust to 56,000 pounds of thrust in the JSF, I think that there would have to be some major airframe modifications, because there has to be more air flowing through that engine to get that performance, so I would expect significantly altered air inlets, no small change in a stealth aircraft, to realize that thrust level.

One interesting aside in the article, is the “cost” of the lift fan system that was chosen as the winner in this competition: both the GE/Rolls and P&W engines for the original fly-off for between Lockheed-Martin’s X-35 and Boeing’s X-32 delivered a lot more thrust in wingborne mode using when configured Boeing’s direct lift concept.

U.S. Looking at Israeli Iron Fist APS

Click for full size


From Wiki

It looks like the US military is far less sanguine over Raytheon’s Active Protection System (APS), Quick Kill, because the military folks at the AUSA convention were all over the Israeli Iron Fist APS, made by Rafael.

It is similar to, but appears to be a somewhat more capable system than the other Israeli APS, IMI’s Trophy system, in that it can engage KE rounds as well as ATGMs and RPGs.

The concept is somewhat different than both Raytheon’s and IMI’s, with the blast intended to take out incoming missiles and sabot darts, as opposed to shot, which means that the sabot is not actually destroyed, but made to yaw prior to impact, which would reduce penetration.

When one considers that the Israeli standard infantry fighting vehicle is the Namer, which is based on the Merkava chassis, and weighs in at 60T, as versus 40T for the Bradley, the 20T Stryker, and the 20-30T FCS replacement, it may be of somewhat more limited utility.

A sabot yawing 15° or so off the normal may not prevent penetration of the thinner armor, but on the plus side, using of a non-fragmenting charge means that the potential to injure troops operating closely to the vehicle is significantly reduced.

Background here, here, and here.

When Policy Creates Stupidity

David Stevens, HUD’s Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner, basically the head of the Federal Housing Administration, has drawn a line in the sand against legislation increasing the minimum downpayment for an FHA loan from 3.5% to 5%.

This is the same FHA, that has had its reserves sucked dry by increasing defaults on its mortgage (here and here), and now they are fighting against making their loans less likely to default.

The reason given? That, “limiting the pool of eligible home buyers could dampen a fragile housing recovery.”

This is an extension of two largely bipartisan policies:

  • The federal government has been pushing home-ownership aggressively for decades.
  • A desperate attempt to re-inflate the housing bubble.

Both policies have proven disastrous, but decisions are still being made on this basis.

It should be noted that this is the same FHA was spitting in the face of sanity for some time by allowing “seller funded downpayment assistance loans”, where the seller raised the price of the home in order to lend the buyer the money for the downpayment (!). It was called the Down-payment Assistance Program (DAP).

This procedure is one of the reasons that they are in a pickle now, because it made it too easy for people who could not afford house payments to buy a house.

Thankfully, Congress made this illegal, and they are now looking at a further tightening of lending standards, but just as in the case the DAP, they are fighting the change tooth and nail.

Well, Here’s a Shocker

It turns out that most of Timothy “I am not a Banker” Geitner’s friends that he has brought into the Treasury department have made millions working for the banks that wrecked out economy:

Some of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s closest aides, none of whom faced Senate confirmation, earned millions of dollars a year working for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other Wall Street firms, according to financial disclosure forms.

When you have people overseeing the current system who personally profit from it, fundamental change is not in the offing.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

Click for full size


H/T Calculated Risk for the Graph Pr0n


Yeah, CR again, this time LA Port Traffic

Notwithstanding green shoots, it still appears that consumers, who account for 70% of GDP,* remain pessimistic, with the Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 69.4, down from August’s 73.5, and well below the forecast that the number would be flat.

On the other hand, industrial production rose 0.7% in September, and capacity utilization (see top graph) rose to 70.5%.

You also have a secondary indicator of the economy, port traffic for the LA/Long Beach ports continues to fall.

Additionally, the banks who actually do make loans to real people, as opposed to the Wall Street parasites, are not doing well, with Bank of America posting a loss, and credit card delinquencies are rising.

Wall Street may be doing fine, but main street is still being hammered.

Meanwhile, in energy, the industrial production numbers drove oil to a 12-month high, and the US dollar recovered a bit, though it is still down for the week

*Or maybe not, see here.

Thrust-Vectoring EJ200 for Typhoon

So it looks like Eurojet is looking at getting into the thrust vectoring game.

It also looks like they will be selling it on improved economics, based on the use of lower thrust settings for takeoff and landing, and improved straight-line performance through reduced trim drag, rather than any massive increase in agility.

This is not surprising: At the speeds at which combat generally occurs, aerodynamic surfaces just work better.

For all the play over airshow maneuvers like the Cobra, etc., you have to be out of energy and very slow for them to work, which mirrors Colonel Fornof’s talks on dealing with the thrust vectoring F-22 and Su-30MKI, where he says that using thrust vectoring creates opportunities for the opposing aircraft to shoot you down.

Sounds like the old truism of air combat, “Speed is life,” remains true.

Video:

Signs of the Apocalypse: EADS Edition

Click for full size



Dr. Peter Venkman: This aircraft is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.

Mayor: What do you mean, “biblical”?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… mass hysteria!

So there you have it, actual photographic evidence of the EADS A400M military transport with actual flight worthy engines on the wing, and they are now claiming that we should expect a first flight in December.

Personally, I expect that when the aircraft hits the runway for its first flight, we will see rains of frogs, burning pitch, daffodils, and Amway salesmen.

GD Pitches Stryker for FCS Replacement

I think that the idea of an upgraded an uparmored Stryker to replace the now-canceled FCS is a very bad idea.

The problem is that Strykers, which now tip the scales at less than 25 tons when extra armor is added on, but it looks like an upgraded Stryker would weigh somewhere between 30 and 35 tons, and when considering that the original vehicle, the LAV, weighed about 15 tons, I think that it would be just too heavy.

Simply replacing the manned turret on the Bradley IFV with an unmanned one, and using the space that is opened up for more troops gets you there, and there is probably some space left over for the communications gear that was developed along with the FCS.