Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Federal Reserve Will Continue to Pump More Money Into the Equity Bubble

According to accounts of the minutes, not only are they not looking at winging down their sh$%pile for cash program, but there are a number of members who want the program expanded. (See also here and here)

Unfortunately, boosting stock prices by giving money to banks for worthless assets does not get people back to work, and it could be argued that it creates the illusion of a recovery that makes banking reform that much more difficult.

Alan Grayson Leans on Reid

I’m really starting to like this guy.*

He’s just delivered a petition with over 90K signatures to Harry Reid telling him to do his f$#@ing job and lead:

I’m told Dem Rep. Grayson will hold a press conference this afternoon in D.C. to unveil a petition to Reid bearing more than 90,000 signatures, collected by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, insisting that “any Democratic senators who support a Republican attempt to block a vote on health care reform should be stripped of their leadership titles.”

While it is clear that Harry Reid could not do this on his own, he would need backing from other people in the senate leadership, as well as the White House, if he can’t keep Democrats from filibustering healthcare reform, why should we pull the lever for Democrats?

*In a 110% purely heterosexual kind of way, of course, as the General would say.

Economics Update

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Retail Sales, Courtesy Calculated Risk


DJIA Since Late 1998

As much as I think that the crossing of arbitrary numbers is bullsh#@, and I think that covering the daily swings of the market is bullsh#@, and I think that the Dow Jones is perhaps an even bigger load of bullsh#@, the fact that the DJIA topped 10,000 today is the obvious lede in today’s economics news.

The Dow closed at 10015.86, the highest number in over a year.

It should also be noted this makes the return on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 10 years roughly 0%.

I still think that this is a dead cat bounce, fueled largely by the Federal Reserve printing money and laundering it into the stock market through the banks.

It appears that the Federal Reserve is similarly dubious about the meaning of the recent rally, as the newly released FOMC Minutes make notes about “Considerable Uncertainty” about the strength of the recovery, once the stimulus package wraps up.

When one looks at things like falling retail sales in September with the expiration of “cash for clunkers”, (though the number did beat expectations) and US business inventories falling in August, there is little sign that all this money doing anything but creating an equities bubble.

In real estate, we are seeing mortgage applications fall again as rates for the 30 year fixed mortgage head back above 5%.

The energy and currency markets are ecstatic about breaking the 10K barrier, which drove oil above $75/bbl for the first time in almost exactly a year, and because people are optimistic, and hence no longer looking for a safe haven, the Dollar weakened to $1.4924:€1.0000, the lowest number in 14 months.

You Have Got to Be Kidding Me

So, it appears that the House of Saud, whose two businesses are shaking the world down for oil, and shaking down observant Muslims on Haj to Mecca are now saying that they want compensation if the world starts burning less oil.

They are claiming that, “assisting us as oil-exporting countries in achieving economic diversification,” is basic fairness.

Ummm….You are getting plenty of money now. Put your royal family on a more reasonable allowance, stop bankrolling a Neanderthal view of Islam around the world, and spend that money in diversifying your damn economy.

You have at least a decade before anything changes to do this. If you choose not to, you can go Cheney yourselves.

Good News in Honduras

It appears that a deal has been agreed to regarding President Manuel Zelaya. (also here)

Whether or not Zelaya needed to be removed from office, what happened was a coup. He was abducted at gunpoint by the military and put in exile: That’s a coup.

If there had been a vote in parliament, or an order from the courts to arrest him, that would be a legal removal.

I will note here that the lack of involvement of Obama and the State Department is both striking and depressing.

Not Just Stupid, Not Just Wicked Stupid, but Wikkid Stoopid

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Let’s Send a Senator a Package of White Powder! That’s the Ticket!

John Cole reads Redstate, so the rest of us don’t have to, and he comes across one of the stupidest things yet written this millennium, by Eric Erickson, the “editor” of Redstate.

Yes, he is actually suggesting that people mail packages of a white powdery substance to a US Senator.

Un-dirtyword-believable. Was he dropped on his head at birth or something?

H/t Atrios.

I’m not an Economist, but ….

I have to agree with Dean Baker when he excoriates New York Times reporter Andrew Ross Sorkin for this bit of crap:

That Treasury bills were trading for less than 1 percent interest, as if they were no better than cash, as if the full faith of the government had suddenly become meaningless.

When you have people who lend you money, and they ask for less interest from you, which is the position of the government when they sell Treasuries, it means that they have more faith in you, not less.

The issue was not that people stopped trusting the government as Sorkin implies, it is that people are desperate for Government debt, because the lost faith in everything else.

I’ve done a quick google, and it appears that he’s also one of the idiots who took the thoroughly debunked $70/hour pay rate propaganda GM workers, which included the costs of those workers who were already retired, and ran with it.

I Googled Mr. Sorkin, so see if this was perhaps yet another innumerate journalist covering finance, and while I know when he earned his degree (BS, in 1999), and where he earned his degree (Cornell University), I cannot determine what he earned his degree in, and hence the degree to which is actually able to count.

My guess is that he got it in pastry baking.

Baucus Piece of Sh%$ Healthcare Proposal Passes Finance Committee

The vote was 14-9, with President Olympia Snowe voting with Democrats, but she said very clearly that she is only voting this way today.

You know if a couple of Dems had voted against the bill, like Rockefeller, who has been leading the charge for a real public option, and Wyden, who got screwed by Baucus, the measure would still have passed by 12-11, and a shot would have been fired across the bow of morons like Baucus and the Nelson twins.

Of course, now the press is wringing its hands at the likelihood that Snowe may not get Huchison’s position as ranking member of the Commerce Committee, when Kay Baily Hutichison leaves to run for governor against Rick “Goodhair” Perry….My heart bleeds. It’s clear that she has no interest in voting for real healthcare reform.

In the least surprising news of the day, it turns that the insurance industry’s biggest bitch in Congress, Senator Joe Lieberman, is taking the insurance companies’ line, and supporting the status quote.

Economics Update

Well, if you are a small business that relies on CIT for your credit, you have a problem, because the company’s CEO is resigning as a likely prelude to bankruptcy.

There are over a million small and medium sized businesses that rely on CIT for their credit.

Additionally, the meltdown among the monoliners continues apace, with Fitch downgrading Assured Guaranty from AA+ to AA, which, given the fact that their business is basically renting out their credit rating, they are pretty close to “toast” status.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, investor confidence in Germany has fallen for the first time in 3 months, down to 56 September’s 57.7 and well below the forecast of 58.8.

Meanwhile, we are seeing increased demand for Treasuries because foreign investors think that they have become cheap with the falling dollar, and investors are expecting a rebound in the dollar when the Federal Reserve finally does tighten monetary policy.

It appears that this optimism also pushed the price of oil to $74.15/bbl.