Author: Matthew G. Saroff

F136 Alternate JSF Engine Update

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So, the House-Senate Conference Committee agreed to fund the F136 alternate engine for the JSF, despite a qualified veto threat from the White House.

By qualified, I mean that “sources in the WH” have said that they would “recommend a veto,” if the engine were funded, which is quite different from the flat out statement that Obama would veto anything with the F-22 white elephant Raptor.

While the weak veto threat is one of the reasons that supporters of the alternate engine have gained momentum, there is also the fact that Pratt & Whitney is doing back-flips on cost and schedule in order to try to kill the RR/GE F136 engine, which reinforces the idea that they see a real threat their profit model for the F135 engine.

Additionally, the idea that the program managers can squeeze P&W just as hard if there is no competitor out in the wings is plainly ludicrous, and the F100/F110 “engine war” of the 1980s clearly shows that.

The reason that the DoD is fighting the alternate engine at this point, is because they really want the JSF, and even a small amount of money, even if it pays ten fold dividends further out, may push the JSF further down the delay/cost escalation/procurement cuts cycle.

Ashton Carter* pretty much says that flat out when he says that, “The crux of the analysis is that the additional upfront costs of a second engine are very clear and very real and the possible savings associated with a hypothesized competition in the future are much harder to estimate.”

That being said, the development of the F-136 is not going perfectly. The manufacturers just had to halt testing following the discovery of damage to the turbine, described as “nicks and dings”.

End of Stealth?

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Bistatic Radar


Typical RCS

So, Joint Force Quarterly has an article on the end of stealth (PDF link for article)

Certainly, the air forces of the world have been trying to make Giulio Douhet’s vision of strategic bombing vision reality for many years, and stealth technology had the potential of reducing the costs of striking a target to something approaching the Italian general’s original vision.

Of course, even in the case of air supremacy over the target, WWII over Germany and Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and both Iraq wars, it turns out that air power, at least without Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has been an abject failure at winning wars.

While I do agree with the basic thesis of the article, that improvements in processing technology, particularly in processing power available in compact packages,which allow for intermittent signals from disparate platforms to be fused into a coherent picture.

The author Arend Westra, places a high degree of value on what he calls “bistatic’ and “passive” radars, where the receiver is well removed from the transmitter, and, in some cases, the transmitter is something like a civilian TV or radio facility.

I am far more dubious of the capabilities of such systems for a number of reasons:

  • They have multiple points of failure.
  • For the United States in particular, civilian broadcasting infrastructure, because of its ability to transmit civil defense instructions and “enemy propaganda”, these are considered militarily significant infrastructure whose locations are well known, and are hit early in any war.
    • As an interesting philosophical aside, by the standards of the United States, the World Trade Center towers were legitimate military targets, because they were festooned with civilian radio and television transmitters.
  • I think that using processing will be cheaper than new technology.

This is not to say that I think that these sorts of systems won’t be deployed, as there is already an existing civilian infrastructure to piggyback on, but that they will be a part, and for anyone with half a brain a small part of a total system.

I think that as we move to the future, that any sort of strike package heading into an integrated air defense system will do with the Israelis did, where the idea of somehow blocking or flooding the network used to integrate the various sensors will become the most significant part of any mission planning.

I think that the biggest impact will be in the arms market, where nations concerned about air attacks may very turn toward increasingly sophisticated Russian air defense systems.

Well, That Trashed a Paint Job

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What you see below is a video of the USAF’s Advanced Tactical Laser doing its thing on a pick up truck.

I really don’t see a whole bunch of utility here. It’s a chemical laser, which means an extensive, expensive, and environmentally hazardous logistical tail, and things like sheet metal on trucks are much easier to heat that people, which have a lot of water in them, so it, “as a way to target individual insurgents,” seems to me to be somewhat dubious.

The advances in electrically powered lasers, particularly against things like mortars and Kyatusha rocketsIn any case, here is bonus Bond video, with the best Bond line ever™, from Mr. Goldfinger, not Sean Connery, “No Mr. Bond, I expect you to die.”

Another Stealth Aircraft Done in by Rain

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This time it’s the F-22 where the rain and humidity in Guam is causing shorts in its avionics.

This is the sort of sh$# that should have been handled in qualification, particularly for a plane that costs about $200 million.

I will say, however, that the last ‘graph is a classic:

The fighters’ maintenance issues had “no impact” on the strategic posture at Guam and did not put the island’s defense in jeopardy, Thomas said. The aircraft will continue to deploy to Guam and other parts of the Pacific, he said.

Because, I guess those folks in Palau and Ujelang are constantly threatening to invade.

Tanker Tango Update

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Yeah, like that really worked well.

Well, we have two bits of information, one technical, that Boeing is seriously considering submitting both 767 and 777 proposals for its KCX bid (s):

A lot of the defense press was puzzled by Boeing’s statement last week after the release of the draft RFP. “Our next step is to conduct a detailed review of the document. We want to understand how requirements will be defined and prioritized and how the proposals will be evaluated. That information will help us decide which plane to offer or whether to offer both planes. We appreciate that there will be frequent, open discussion with the U.S. Air Force as we go forward. Both the Air Force and the American taxpayer will benefit from the tanker options we can offer. Boeing has a KC-7A7 ‘family of tankers’ available to meet the warfighter’s requirements. Whether it’s the agile, flexible 767-based tanker or the large 777-based tanker, Boeing will deliver a combat-ready tanker with maximum capability at the lowest cost.”

I don’t know if they will submit both aircraft, but my guess is that any new proposal for the 767 will involve a variant that has already been produced, perhaps either Japan’s or Italys, as opposed to the “767-200 fuselage, a -300 wing and a -400 cockpit,” variant that they proposed last time around.

My guess is also that they will back off on their “super” refueling boom, which has still not flown.

I think that any 777 proposal would have to involve a shortened fuselage, because they are looking at a medium tanker proposal, and the 777 is otherwise too big.

On the other end of the bid, Northrop Grumman/EADS is concerned that Boeing received proprietary price data on their bid when they filed the challenge, which will give Boeing an advantage in the next course of bidding. (also here and (here)

And then there is what effect, if any, there is on this process of Airbus losing the WTO ruling on subsidies, and how this might alter the bid process.

Now I Get the Nobel Prize

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It was for the “Beer Summit“:

OSLO (The Borowitz Report) – As the world responded with a mixture of surprise and amazement to the announcement of President Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize, Nobel insiders revealed that the President’s “beer summit” at the White House put him over the top.

“The committee was definitely split down the middle right up until the end,” said Agot Valle, a Norwegian politician and member of the five-person Nobel committee. “Some of them were still quite upset about that nasty business with the Somali pirates.”

As Dotcommie at the Stellar Parthenon BBS noted:

Getting the Israelis and the Egyptians to talk was WAY easier than a Boston Cop and a Black Man.

Troof.

Potential Successor to NLOS Cannon Shown

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Looks like the Son of MLRS

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) is showing its Donar 155 mm howitzer at the AUSA convention.

Based on a cursory read of Bill Sweetman’s blog post, and my knowledge of MLRS, I spent some time crawling over the vehicles when I was at Lockheed-Martin Missiles & Fire Control* in Grand Prairie, TX, it looks to me an awful lot like they modified the platform and chassis of the M270 MLRS, replacing the turret for the rockets with a (one would assume significantly beefed up to handle recoil) howitzer turret.

Of note, since the automated turret and loading systems are completely removed from the crewed area, there appears to be a significant reduction in weight, since the turret does not need the same level of armor if it is not in crewed space.

Additionally, there should be some cost savings involved in using an existing platform.

On the downside, as compared to the now defunct NLOS-C, this is never going to fit in a C-130, though it KMW is claiming that it will fit in an EADS A-400.

*Yeah, I worked there too. I didn’t work on MLRS, but on a British derivative, the LIMAWS-R, which required me to look at the vehicles regularly.

BAE Bribery Investigation Back On

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It appears that elections make a difference, so a desperate Gordon Brown is allow investigations to proceed regarding potential bribery in, “Tanzania, South Africa, Romania and the Czech Republic,” but nothing involving Saudi Prince Bandar and the House of Saud, whose bribery levels are probably 10 times higher than the other 4 nations combined.

It would be nice if the west stopped coddling the House of Saud, which is a cesspool of corruption, greed, and terrorism.

These Things go Together

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Aermacchi’s M-346


Korea Aerospace Industries T-50

First, we have South Korea selecting the Israel Aerospace Industries/Elta Systems EL/M-2032 radar for its combat version of its A/T-50 trainer, and now Israel eyes has the T-50 on its short list, along with the M-346, as a replacement for its A-4 Skyhawk advanced trainer.

Funny how that works out.

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on the T-50.

In either case, I feel a great affection for the A-4 “Scooter.”

This is Not the Onion

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Playboy Turning Japanese?

Seriously, no joke, they are putting Marge Simpsonon the cover of Playboy’s November issue:

Marge is about to do something Homer might not approve of.

Playboy magazine is turning over its cover to the matriarch of Springfield’s first family: Marge Simpson.

It’s a first for the magazine, which has had everyone from Marilyn Monroe to Cindy Crawford to the Girls of Hooters and even the likes of Jerry Seinfeld on the cover. But it’s never had a cartoon character before.

Life is stranger than fiction.

Within the Scope of Employment? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?!?!

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It appears that the US Government is claiming that torture is in the normal scope of employment, which gives a new meaning to the term, “Banality of Evil,” which was coined to describe the actions of Adolph Eichmann and his motivations.

Citing the Westfall Act, [Barack Obama appointee Assistant Attorney General] Tony West wrote that “the type of activities alleged against the individual defendants were ‘foreseeable’ and were ‘a direct outgrowth’ of their responsibility to detain and gather intelligence from suspected enemy combatants.” In defending the government’s position, West cited case law stating that “genocide, torture, forced relocation, and cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment by individual defendants employed by Department of Defense and State Department were within scope of employment” and similar cases justifying CIA torture as part of official duty.

“It is essentially saying torture is all in a day’s work when it comes to holding people in military detention,” says Shane Kadidal, who heads the Guantánamo project at CCR. In that case, the issue was not whether Rumsfeld and the others were “employees” but whether they were doing official business. Blackwater’s argument is a tougher sell, says Morrison. “Does it hold water?” he asks. “It holds Blackwater.”

Great Googly Moogly, within the scope of employment?

Birth-Death Adjustment Finally Coming Under Scrutiny

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Houston, we have a problem.


And job recoveries are progressively slower too

This is kind of a wonky bit about employment statistics in the US, and how a statistical tool, the birth death adjustment, may not be a reasonable way of looking at employment in the United states, and now New York Times columnist Floyd Norris is taking note of the fact that job losses in 2008 are now understood to be far greater than originally reported at the time:

It now appears that during the first half of 2008, when the recession was getting under way, job losses averaged 146,000 per month. That is nearly three times the average of 49,000 jobs shown in the initial estimates.

How did the government get it so wrong?

(emphasis mine)

The answer is very simple, a statistical correction called the “birth-death adjustment”, which is about birth and death of new businesses, rather than the birth and death of people, and it, “factors in jobs assumed to have been created by employers who are too new to have been included in the survey, and subtracts jobs from employers assumed to have failed and therefore not responded to the latest survey”.

You see, under George W. Bush and His Evil Minions™, the birth-death adjustment was massively expanded, just in time to create for the 2004 election. So there are a number of reasons for this:

  • It created better job numbers, and hence political advantage for Bush and His Evil Minions™.
  • It was part of the ideology of the “ownership society” that there were millions of people chomping at the bit to become entrepreneurs, which leads to a feeling that the Birth/Death numbers need to be expanded.
  • Political advantage.
  • A lack of understanding that Americans have become much less entrepreneurial even in comparison to members of other developed economies, because people are unwilling to rely on privately purchased insurance for their healthcare.
  • Political Advantage.
  • It is bad to present Dear Leader with bad news.

As the top graph shows, something is truly whack here.

Unfortunately, I don’t see this being fixed in the foreseeable future, becausethere is no advantage for Obama/Geithner/Summers to start using more accurate, and hence scarier, numbers.

H/t Barry Ritholtz.

When You Fire Someone, They Can Talk Freely

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We already know that there are widespread and credible allegations of vote fraud in Afghanistan, and Peter Galbraith, the UN’s deputy special representative for Afghanistan, just got fired for arguing that there needs to be a broader inquiry into this matter.

You know that old saying about rather having someone in the tent, pissing out, rather than being outside the tent, pissing in? Well, now that he’s been given the sack, Mr. Galbraith is arguing publicly what he had been arguing privately:

A former senior United Nations diplomat in Kabul has made a scathing attack on the UN’s handling of Afghanistan’s disputed elections, claiming that almost one in three of the votes cast for president Hamid Karzai were fraudulent.

Peter Galbraith, the former deputy head of the UN mission in Afghanistan, singled out his former chief, Kai Eide, for criticism, saying he had deliberately played down the level of cheating in an election where, in one region, “10 times as many votes were recorded as voters actually cast”.
Jon Boone on claims of election fraud in Afghanistan Link to this audio

Galbraith was sacked last week, after his disagreements with Eide, a Norwegian diplomat in charge of the UN mission, about how to deal with electoral fraud became public. Galbraith said the extraordinary level of fraud in the August vote “has handed the Taliban its greatest strategic victory in eight years of fighting the United States and its Afghan partners”.

You can read his OP/Ed in the Washington Post here.

This is moment is analogous to Kennedy and Johnson’s moment following the assassination of Ngô Đình Diệm in Vietnam.

When they both signed off on the deed, they sealed the fate of South Vietnam, and made subsequent governments little more than widely detested US puppets.

Well, Barack Obama now has his Diệm moment, and it appears that he will fall as Kennedy and Johnson did.

Conspiracy Theories Abond on US Dollar

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We are now getting reports that, “Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France are planning to start trading oil using a basket of currencies,” rather than the US dollar, over the next decade.

The source is The Independent, which has a pretty good reputation as a newspaper, even if it publishes in tabloid (excuse me, “compact”), and it is cast as one involving much in the way of cloak and dagger secrecy, which is a bit much.

Additionally, they cast the invasion of Iraq as being driven by Saddam Hussein’s decision to Euro denominate his oil sales driving the invasion of Iraq, when this is clearly not the case.

There are any number of reasons for such a discussion to take place, most notably greater stability in oil prices for the rest of the world, though there might also be a desire to re-balance the unipolar world that allowed the United States to invade Iraq with impunity in the first place.