Author: Matthew G. Saroff

What Digby Said

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Seriously:

Today the ACLU and many bloggers who are concerned with the fact that the United States tortured prisoners and apparently has no intention of holding anyone responsible for it are blogging about a little known fact about the issue: the US Government didn’t just torture a bunch a prisoners, as bad as that was, and as horrible as it remains for those who survived it. The United States tortured many prisoners to death. This does not seem to be common knowledge, but the evidence is quite clear that this happened. Torture and death by torture was not isolated.

It should be noted that if the prisoner died, they were violating even the repulsive standards of Bybee and Yoo.

Latest Phony GOP SH%$ Storm

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They are claiming that the EPA is suppressing climate warming skeptical reports from one of their employees, Al Carlin.

There are, however, a few problems:

  • He’s an economist not a scientist.
  • He was never asked the reports, this is a hobby that he does on the side, and then he writes memos about them.
  • The report has been by a NASA climatologist as, “a ragbag collection of un-peer reviewed web pages, an unhealthy dose of sunstroke, a dash of astrology and more cherries than you can poke a cocktail stick at.”
  • He’s never been a part of the climate change working group.

So basically, he’s the nutcase you ignore on an email listserv.

She’s persona non grata in Palm Beach

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Pity Ruth Madoff. She’s going to have to live the rest of her life on just $2.5 million in cash:

Ruth will be left with just $2.5 million in cash by federal authorities under that deal.

“In the deal, she lost everything. She’s lost everything she holds dear,” said one source. “She’s lost her husband. She has no friends.”

“She’s persona non grata in Palm Beach, everywhere she cared about. She’s a beaten woman. There’s nothing left on the carcass to take,” the source said.

(emphasis mine)

$2½ million and PNG in Palm Beach!

The horror.

On Having 60 Democrats

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OK, so Al Franken is finally going to be seated.

The question is two fold, what does this mean, and what should this mean?

Ignoring the health issues of Byrd and Kennedy,* which means that Democrats are theoretically able to get cloture in the event of a Republican filibuster.

The question is, “Will they?”

Obviously, managing Senators is like herding cats, so one cannot expect them, particularly on the Democratic side of the aisle, to vote for every bit of legislation.

Voting on cloture, however, should a different thing, though I’ve very little confidence in Senate Leader Reid enforcing this.

As voters, and potential campaign contributors, I would suggest not contributing to the DSCC and instead contributing to individual campaigns, with Dem Senators who vote against cloture healthcare or global legislation getting nothing.

*Which is a lot like saying, “Other Than That, Mrs. Lincoln, How Was the Play?”

Economics Update

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Unemployment Rate Actual data vs. the Summers-Geithner Stress Test Assumptions
H/T Calculated Risk

The obvious lede is the various corporate measures of job cuts, with ADP Employer Services saying that there were 393K private-sector jobs cut, Challenger, Gray & Christmas saying that planned job cuts in June were 74,393, and the Monster Employment Index (PDF) moderating somewhat for June.

These are a bit better than May, but only in “the 2nd derivative is improving” way.

Jobs are still being cut, when you need to job growth to match the growth of the work force.

In related “2nd derivative” news, there is CNN trumpeting the fact that the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index rose for the 6th straight month:, while Bloomberg correctly notes that what this really means is that Manufacturing in U.S. Shrank at Slower Pace in June.

Falling less slowly is not improvement.

I am so sick of hack Panglossian journalists.

We also have mortgage applications falling to a 7 month low, which indicates that right now the housing market is in a death dance with economic recovery.

Any recovery will bump interest rates a few points, but that will kill any recovery in real estate……Catch 22.

If you want some good news, industrial sentiment rose in Japan, but it’s a “2nd derivative” thing too, with the index rising to minus 48 in June from minus 58 in March.

The only really good news, is that Calculated Risk’s June Economic Summary in Graphs is out, so there is some good chart pr0n for the wonks.

In energy, we have US Diesel inventories up, along with both oil and gasoline falling on increasing inventories.

Finally, the dollar fell, though I can’t tell if this is China’s suggestion of an alternate reserve currency, or because all the “2nd derivative” stuff make investors feel less of a need for a safe haven.

Credit Where Credit is Due

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On Joe Scarborough’s show on MSNBC, Chuck Todd said that the emperor had no clothes, when he said that in the Ricci case that, ““he majority actually, well, to put it bluntly, legislated from the bench.”

I have repeatedly called Chuck Todd, “one of the stupidest muthf%$#ers in the White House press room,” for his sometime absurdly naive acceptance of the beltway conventional wisdom.

This is not one of those times though. He nailed it when he described the conservative majority’s intent in this vote as being judicial activism, even if Joe Scarborough reacted like a cow that had just stepped on its own udder.

Making Things Worse

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Representatives Travis Childers (D-Criminally Stupid)and Gary Miller (R-Stupid Criminal) have proposed an 18 month suspension of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), which is intended to reduce fraud in appraisals.

Unsurprisingly, in the world before politics, Childers and Miller were a realtor and a home builder respectively, and fraud=profits for that lot.

We know this bill sucks because of who supports it:

The National Association of Realtors’ Lawrence Yun says “stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts falling through at the last moment.” The National Association of Mortgage Brokers proclaims, “Tens of thousands of consumers have already been robbed of their opportunity to enjoy historically low rates by Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s rule.” The appraisal management companies, critics say, don’t seem to care if the appraisers they pick know anything about the neighborhoods in question.

This is a bad, bad bill.

Talk About Regulatory Capture

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Remember those bank warrants we got for TARP money?

Well Timothy Geithner and His Evil Minions™ want the banks themselves to set the price, at least initially:

The Treasury Department said the banks will make the first offer for the warrants. Treasury will then decide to sell at that price or make a counteroffer. If the government and a bank cannot agree on a fair price for the warrants, the two sides will have the right to use private appraisers.

If you want a fair price, put them out for public bid.

This is just another backdoor payout to the investment banks.

First, we overpay for the warrants, and now, we sell them back at less than their value.

The hole damn system is corrupt, and the bank bailout needs to be pursued as a criminal investigation, not as a crisis.

Economics Update

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Case-Shiller data vs. the Stress Test Assumptions
H/T Calculated Risk


Default rates on mortgages, Also
H/T Calculated Risk

Uh-oh, consumer confidence fell in June, largely based on job concerns.

The reporter interviews an analyst who is surprised about this, because of , “the fact that the S&P 500 is close to 40 percent off its March lows.”

The fact is that the general public is better at recognizing a dead cat bounce than this analyst, because they are concerned about jobs, which are still being lost.

Meanwhile in the world of real estate, or perhaps we should call it unreal estate, the
Case-Shiller index posted an 18.1% year over year drop, and delinquencies on prime mortgages going off the charts.

We also got GDP numbers for the 1st quarter from the UK, and we have their economy falling off a cliff, down 2.4% for the quarter, and 4.9% year over year.

Maybe the good news is that there U.K. house prices rose in June, following May’s increase, up 0.9%, though it’s still down 9.3% year over year.

Until I see year over year numbers below 2%, I don’t see any green shoots, just the 2nd derivative of price going positive.

In any case, the crappy consumer confidence report drove oil down and the dollar up, as there are concerns about reduced demand for oil, and a flight to safety in dollars.