Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Australian MRTT Tanker Delayed

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This is actually fairly significant news, as it is Australia’s A-330 MRTT tanker is the airframe that won the US tanker competition. Stephen Trimble hhas the official reasons for the delay:

  1. the mutual decision by EADS and RAAF to take the aircraft to the Paris air show;
  2. the RAAF directed changes to the MRTT configuration following contract award which has served to extend the development and testing program (including modifications to the refueling and avionics systems);
  3. the RAAF has requested additional flight testing to ensure a more robust mission system when delivered.

If these are the all the reasons, then it really has no bearing on the viability of the airframe for the tanker competition, but I tend to be cynical on such things, so my guess is that EADS was finding it difficult to meet the schedule.

Additionally, Australia’s currency has generally been falling, which may create budget pressures that might lead them to defer purchases.

See also here.

Blow Up UAVs

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It looks like the folks at U.S. Army Research Laboratory at Aberdeen Proving Ground have come up with concepts for inflatable structures for UAVs.

The folks at the lab believe that the use of inflatable structures would allow for lighter weight, which translates into slower flight speeds and less noise, both of which are optimal for the use of UAVs in an urban scenario.

Goodyear did actually develop and fly an inflatable aircraft, the Inflatoplane, in the 1950s, but the army decided it was too vulnerable to ground fire, and shelved the project.

Still, it has always surprised me that someone in the ultralight community did not go further forward with this. An ultralight made using this technology could fit in the trunk of a midsized car.

About a decade ago, I put an inqwuiry into Goodyear regarding the Airmat, basically balloon material with threads running between opposite walls to provide rigidity when inflated, material they used for the structure, but there was nothing left there.

Why go Bullpup

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In what should be a surprise to no onw, the Israeli Defense Forces have adopted the MTAR-21 Micro-Tavor as their weapon of choice.

Once again, it allows us to look at why the M4/M16 needs to be replaced in US service.

In addition to its gas tube operation requesting excessive cleaning, it’s just too damn long:

Overall Length

Barrel Length

TAR-21

725 mm (28.5 in)

460 mm (18.1 in)

MTAR-21

590 mm (23.2 in)

330 mm (13.0 in)

M16

1000mm (39.5 in)

508 mm (20 in)

M4

838 mm (33 in) (stock extended)

757 mm (29.8 in) (stock retracted)

368 mm (14.5 in)



While it’s clear that the both MTAR-21 and the M4 having 13½ and 14 inch barrels respectively, will have lethality problems at range. The 5.56 mm round is light and uses high velocity to carry to provide lethality, but the M4 is much more extensively used, because for any urban situation, the M-16 at 1m long is simply unmanagable, while the TAR-21, the normal rifle for the IDF with an 18 inch barrel is shorter than the M4.

The additional 4 inches of barrel also get the mussel velocity high enough to avoid the lethality issues at 100 m or so.

That is an very small package though.

The Real DDG-1000 Cancellation Reason?

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Both of the US Navy’s new combat ships, the DDG-1000 Zumwalt and the Littoral Combat Ship are designed to minimize crew size to save cost.

However, the LCS is a conventional hull form, and it has lots of open space in, both for modules, and for a lot of reserve bouyancy.

The Zumwalts, however, appear to be much more tightly packed, with less reserve bouyance relative to their size, and a tumblehome hull form for stealth that is suspected of having stability issues.

Galrahn at Information Dissemination suggests that perhaps the crewing and hull form created a ship with a serious glass jaw, much like the British battlecruisers at the turn of the last century:

More than any other form of damage control, flooding is best known for being managed by active means best represented in manpower. The reduction in crew creates an unstable situation in this regard, and while we are on this subject, let me note that I believe one of the real unspoken reasons Roughead wants to cancel the DDG-1000 is specific to the absence of flood control capabilities with that platform that has a relatively tiny crew. Ever read Friedman about ship design? If so, consider the hull form of DDG-1000 as you reflect upon the thoughts I’ve noted below.

If his analysis is correct, and I think it is, I find it interesting this is repeating almost in an almost exactly 100 year cycle.

Quote of the Day

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The ever entertaining Barney Frank:

“I’m a great fan of the president-elect, but I think it’s probably the case that he’s going to have to be more assertive than he’s been,” Frank said, addressing the Consumer Federation of America’s annual financial services conference. “And I know what he says is ‘Well, we only have one president at a time. My problem is, at a time of great crisis and [massive] mortgage foreclosures. … I am afraid that overstates the number of presidents.”

(emphasis mine)

I need to clean my screen now.

Where is Stiglitz?

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At Newsweek, Michael Hirsh asks this important question.

Joseph Stiglitz has a Nobel prize in economics, and he called the financial crisis, and made the correct policy recommendations about how to prevent it, for well over a decade.

Unfortunately, Obama is turning marginally enlightened Chicago School types like Austan Goolsbee, and people with a lineage that traces its path from Wall Street kleptocrats *cough*Robert Rubin*cough*, like Larry Summers, and neither of these groups are particularly interested in someone who has been consistently proved right, because he has also proveds them wrong.

This is the best endorsement of Stiglitz being brought in I can think of:

Like Keynes himself, who fought successfully to block “hot money” at the postwar Bretton Woods conference in 1944, Stiglitz understood the problem of international capital flows like few others of his era. As his longtime collaborator Bruce Greenwald—another Columbia professor who, by the way, is a conservative Republican—puts it: “You need radical global reform” to correct chronic imbalances in capital flows, all of which Stiglitz has laid out in his book, “Making Globalization Work.”

This is precisely our problem, and this man has gotten a Nobel plotting the solutions.

Quite my solution, in the broadest terms, is to recognize that Wall Street (and the Street in London, and the rest of the financial markets) have become gangrenous, and need to be amputated, but Stiglitz, has the specifics as to what is rotten.

Interesting Juxtaposition in the Media Coverage of Africa

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We have this story alleging that Rwanda is behind the insurgency in the east of Congo, and we have this story discussing negotiations between the governments of Rwanda and Congo to disband the FDLR militias.

The Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), are the genocidal criminals who massacred a significant portion of the Rwandan Tutsi population, and once driven from the country, set themselves up in “refugee camps” where their basic food and nature needs are provided for by the UN and NGOs, and have continued to wage genocidal campaigns against Tutsis, both in Congo and Rwanda.

A first step to fixing this is to close down the camps, and considering that the Tutsis have not engaged in mass reprisals in the 18 years since the genocide, these camps are not needed.

As to how to close down the camps? That’s simple, just stop delivering supplies.

Even Now, Putting Politics Ahead of Country

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So, Bush is wondering if the Big 3 (Big 2½) are a prudent taxpayer investment:

President Bush on Friday said he is worried about giving taxpayer money to car companies that “may not survive.”

After giving, what, 5 times that amount to an just one insurance insurance company, and engineering something on the order of 200 times that amount for wall street in exchange for stock that has already lost a third of its value.

Big finance is a political ally, so they must be saved.

The UAW is the enemy, and so must be crushed, even if it means that there will be a 6 month period where no cars at all are assembled in the US, by either surviving members of the Big 3 (Big 2½) or by the transplants like Toyota, Honda, etc. because of suppliers going into bankruptcy like dominoes.

Additionally, you would start seeing shortages on spare parts for the cars, adversely effecting the auto repair business.

Seriously, when you see this level of disregard of the basic well being of the country because of political expediency, there is only one thing to day, “The Hague, bitches.”

Economics Update

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I’ve never been entirely sure why, but Fridays tend to be OMFG kinds of days, and this one is a doozy.

We have the jobs report out, and it is unbelievably grim, with 533,000 job losses, and the unemployment rate going from 6.5% to 6.7%.

By way of perspective, the so-called experts has predicted job losses of “only” 335,000.

It’s the worst monthly job losses since 1974.

The numbers are actually worse, since this does not count the 422,000 people who just stopped looking for work.

BTW, the unemployment number quoted, the U3 is considered, by me at least, to be over restrictive and understate unemployment. The broader U6, it hits 12.5%:

The U-6 rate only has comparable history back to 1994, but November’s rate is by far the highest since then and the swift rise to that elevated level also far surpasses similar moves during the recessions in 2001 and 1990-91. Previously, the Labor Dept. kept a similar gauge with history back to 1970, showing a high of 14% unemployment during the deep recession in 1982.

The U-6 rate rose sharply in November, from 11.8% in October, and is markedly higher now than the 8.4% recorded in November 2007.

It sucks north of the border too, where Canada Lost 70,600 jobs, which is more on a per capita basis…but Steven Harper wants to try Hoovernomics for a few months to see if it will fix things, which is why the hereditary enemies Liberal, NDP, and BQ parties are trying to desperately form a coalition government to kick his ass to the curb.

Given these numbers, it’s no surprise that a record number of Americans are on food stamps.

Meanwhile, in real estate, delinquencies and foreclosures hit record highs, loans in foreclosure are now at 2.97%, and delinquencies rose to 6.99%.

Meanwhile, it’s clear that the central banks are pushing on a string, and the Bank of England is looking at finding new ways to give away money, because rate cuts are not working:

The Bank of England is working on radical plans to inject cash directly into the British economy as a last resort to reverse a slide into recession, a newspaper reported on Friday.

…

The Daily Telegraph said the Bank was “working on radical plans to inject cash directly into the economy — the nuclear option to be used only when interest rates approach zero.” The report said the Bank was considering engaging in “quantitative easing” — printing more money to reflate the economy.

“Measures under consideration include direct purchases of assets, such as government debt or commercial investments, by the Bank or the Treasury, as well as expanding the Bank’s balance sheet, a means of pumping extra cash into the banking sector,” the newspaper said.

This is end of days economics…..They are literally considering throwing money out the window.

Meanwhile, the markets behaved in ways that make no sense to me, once again indicating that anything beyond simple index funds is not a good investment option for me:

because….Honestly, I have no clue as to why.
In the meantime, oil fell to $40.81/bbl, the lowest since December 10, 2004, and Gasoline?: $1.773/gallon retail.

Senior Citi Executives Accused of Insider Trading

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Please, just throw all of them, particularly Bob Rubin, in Jail, because enough is enough:

An investor lawsuit contends that Citigroup Inc insiders, including senior counselor and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, sold more than $150 million of their own shares at inflated prices while concealing the bank’s true financial health.

Rubin has to be front and center in all this, because he’s….well, he’s front and center in all this.

Every time you see a problem, his name crops up, either as a financial actor or a political one, and yes, criminalizing this sort of revolving door would be a very good thing.

In order to show real accountability, those who knew, or should have known, and with the stock dumping it is clearly the former, and were in a position to do something about this, need to be punished.

Governor Patterson, Appoint Elliot Spitzer to Replace Hillary Clinton

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It does a number of good things, the first is that he would clearly be a placeholder, and so we can allow the voters select a replacement in a special election in 2010.

The second is that Elliot Spitzer really understands the current financial mess, and how the current prescription, which involves even more bank consolidation, is just plain wrong.

His point is that if financial institutions are too big to fail, they are too big not to be broken up:

Two responses are possible: One is to accept the need for gigantic financial institutions and the impossibility of failure—and hence the reality of explicit government guarantees, such as Fannie and Freddie now have—but then to regulate the entities so heavily that they essentially become extensions of the government. To do so could risk the nimbleness we want from economic actors.

The better policy is to return to an era of vibrant competition among multiple, smaller entities—none so essential to the entire structure that it is indispensable.