If the rumor of China negotiating the purchase of Su-33 fighters of the type used on the Russian STOBAR carrier are true, it would appear to be the case.
Author: Matthew G. Saroff
Friday Not Cat Blogging
Kewl:
GM Warns It May Run Out of Cash Before Year’s End
I’m not sure if this is real, or some sort of ploy to get money from Paulson, but this is very scary:
General Motors Corp., seeking federal aid to avoid collapse, said it may not have enough cash to keep operating this year and will fall “significantly short” of the amount needed by the end of June unless the auto market improves or it raises more capital.
I’m so glad that I’m not in a position to make a call on this.
Obama Victory Gets Status of Forces Agreement Signed
Because they did not trust the Republicans to leave as promised:
“Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”
The legacy of the Bush administration is the belief that they, and by extension the United States, could not be trusted to uphold agreements.
The Questions that Needed to be Asked
From, Queen Elizabeth II, of all people.
She visited the London School of Economics (LSE):
Prof Garicano [director of research at the LSE’s management department] said afterwards: “The Queen asked me: ‘If these things were so large, how come everyone missed them? Why did nobody notice it’?”
When Garicano explained that at “every stage, someone was relying on somebody else and everyone thought they were doing the right thing”, she commented: “Awful.”
You see, this is not rocket science.
The only reason that it seems complex is because the people who are trying to fix it, were the ones who caused it in the first place, and they are obfuscating to cover their collective asses.
Georgian Aggression Makes the NY Times
Honestly, I think that they got the green from Bush and His Evil Minions™, or at least Dick Cheney before cluster bombing cities, but cluster bomb cities they did, and they did it before the Russians moved in.
Even without consideration as to right or wrong, it would be catestrophically stupid to allow Georgia into NATO for one simple reason: It will give the Russian FSB unprecedented access to NATO secrets, because the Russians have completely penetrated the Georgian state security apparatus.
That’s why the Russians were able to launch a devastating counter attack: they knew that it was coming, to the minute and individual battalion level battle plans, and so could respond quickly.
Byrd Stepping Down as Chairman of Senate Appropriations Committee
It’s sad, the spirit is willing, but he is too infirm to continue in that post.
More Circular Firing Squad
The NeandeRepublicans are now saying that their losses are all the fault of the more moderate Republicans.
It’s fascinating. After 1972 and 1984, the Democrats saw electoral disasters as a message to hew to the center, and after 1964, 2006, and 2008, Republicans saw it as an excuse to drive the center from their party.
At some point, they will simply go further right than they can push the Overton window.
Joe Lieberman begs to keep chair of Homeland Security Committee
Not my headline, it’s the lede from the New York Daily News, but it amuses me.
Election Updates
Just a note on Alaska, the actual balloting appears to be very screwed up, surprising given the fact that they have such a small number of votes to count.
I’m not calling conspiracy, it appears that this is a perennial thing and it happened in 2004 too.
Still, Stevens is clinging to a slim lead.
I’m not sure if I want him to lose, or if I want him to be expelled by the Senate. Which ever hurts him more.
The man has been a cancer on the body politic for decades.
It’s looking worse for Darcy Burner in WA-8. She is down about 5200 votes.
And Coleman/Franken Senate race in Minnesota is still to close to call. What was an 800 vote margin is now a 239 vote margin, and that’s before the recount starts. This is just figuring the official vote count.
Economics Update
Unemployment rose to 6.5% from 6.1%, a 14 year high, and total non farm employment fell by 240 thousand.
Can we call it a recession already?
If not, how about I draw you a picture:
Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing report fell to 38.9%, the worst number since September 1983.
And, just so now, the real estate recovery ain’t coming soon, not with Property & Portfolio Research Inc. the New York City metro commercial property vacancy rate hitting 17.6%.
FWIW, they had predicted a peak of 13% 3 months ago, but it’s already at 12%.
Meanwhile the National Association of Realtors® says that pending home sales fell 4.6% in Septmeber.
At least we are not in the UK, where house prices fell 15% year over year.
That being said, some of the indicators for the finance market appear to be moderating, with spreads edging down, and money flowing back into mutual funds for the first time in 3½ months.
Additionally, it looks like consumers are using their credit cards a bit more.
The bad economic news news has driven the dollar down, and the weak dollar appears to have beaten recession today on the oil markets, where crude is up a smidgen.
Not surprisingly, Gasoline is down at the pump, the 51st day in a row.
The Wall Street Journal Wrings its Hands at Timid Pro-Labor Moves
This needs to move quickly, because if card check ant other labor provisions don’t go through quickly, they won’t at all.
FWIW, my agenda would be more aggressive than the unions: Repeal Taft-Hartley too.
There is 50 years of anti-union legislation to repeal.
Actually, I can’t think of anything less provocative than a black man dancing with a lesbian, but that’s just me.
I am quoting Will Bunch of Attytood, and it deserves repreating, because it is so damn funny.
Nope, No Residual Racism Here
That outlier in Colorado is Saguache County…Which appears to be a data entry error, that has been corrected in later versions of the NY Times map tool.
Blue Eggs and Ham
I’m Matthew Saroff, and I approve this breakfast.
Rat…Ship
House Minority Whip whip Roy Blunt is stepping down from his position at the end of this congress.
My guess is that there is some connection between his stepping down and his son stepping down as Missouri governor.
Election Updates
It’s confirmed Obama wins North Carolina.
Sen. Gordon Smith concedes to Jeff Merkley, +1 Dem Senator.
Kratovil is looking better. They are not through all the votes, but the margin has gone from 900 to 1800 votes.
Things are not looking good for Burner though, with the gap between her and Reichert growing.
Obama Cabinet Update
Bob Rubin does not want to serve as treasury secretary, which I see as a good thing.
The last thing we need is another Wall Street insider handling this.
Rahmbo is in as chief of staff. Rahm Emanuel has accepted Obama’s offer that he be chief of staff.
I hate his politics, but like his partisanship, and the fact that he is a hard ass. As gatekeeper to the resident, I think that he will make it harder for people bleating about bipartisanship to get face time with the president elect.
One development that surprises me is that Barney Frank is strongly pushing for Sheila Bair, currend FDIC chair, to have a role. She did a good job with IndyMac, but she’s a Bushie.
Got to Use the 3d Printer at Work
Well, I got to use the 3d printer for the first time at work.
Nothing major, just some wells for some tubes to sit in to see if we can adapt a device to a different configuration.
It’s king of neat. The machine puts out 2 resins, one is water soluble, and is used to create the initial base on the plate where the other permanent resin, PE I believe, is extruded from the print head in very fine lines.
I’m making something about the size of about a sandwich, and it takes 13 hours to make it.
Unfortunately, the capabilities of a cell phone camera and camcorder do not really capture enough detail to show this as it appears in person.
It’s wicked cool to watch.
Video below:
Economics Update
Jeebus! The Bank of England cut it’s benchmark interest rate 150 basis points (1.5%)…To 3%.
That’s not strong action, that is TEOTWAWKI panic.
The ECB and the Swiss central bank also cut rates, by 50 basis points…The central banks think that we are in end of the world territory.
As further evidence, we have the ECB’s president saying that there may be more rate cuts.
This from an institution that’s only charter is to fight inflation.
Not surprisingly, all these rate cuts had the effect of sending the Dollar and Yen skyrocketing.
Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped a bit, but only through “Jedi Mind Trick” statistics:
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by 4,000 last week to 481,000, ….
The department revised up its estimate for jobless claims in the prior week to 485,000 from a previously reported 479,000.
So comparing initial estimates, it went up by 2,000, but after the “correction”, it was down by 4000.
In any case, the number sucks, and continuing unemployment claims are the highest that they have been since 1983, when unemployment topped 10%.
It won’t help that retail sales fell to their lowest levels in at least 39 years…..It may be longer, but they only started collecting the statistics in 1969!
Interest rates on interbank lending trending down, but considering all the interest rate cuts, that is pretty unavoidable.
I think that it is more significant that credit card companies were unable to sell bonds at all for the first time since 1993, and when you consider that they charge something north of 20% on carried balances, that is ugly.
BTW, y friends the monoliner bond insurers are back again, with Moody’s cutting Ambac to ‘Baa1’.
It should surprise no one that with massive indications of a deep recession, and the dollar up, oil fell again to $60.77/bbl.