Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Economics Update

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I guess the news from the central banks is as good a place to start as any.

It looks like the the Federal Reserve’s initiative to buy commercial paper is bearing fruit, to the tune of $145.7 billion between October 27 and October 31….Annualize it out, it’s about 7.6 trillion a year.

I also must note that the Bank of Japan cut rates for the first time in 7 years.

It also looks like the ECB will be cutting rates at their next meeting, because Euro Zone inflation numbers were low.

I’m not sure that it’s going to help when consumer spending is falling, by 0.3% in September.

Remember, even though it seems a very long time ago, the Lehman collapse was on September 15, halfway through the month, so the October will likely be worse.

In real estate, one of the leading indicators, the Architecture Billings Index, which presages construction by 9-12 months just dropped off a cliff.

This ain’t no ‘V’ shaped recession.

In any case, the oncoming recession has significantly lowered commodities prices in October, even oil, which posted a record drop, though it was up yesterday to $67.81/bbl.

GMAC is looking at becoming a bank and restructuring extensively.

Finally some historical chart pr0n, graphs or recent market crashes:

VERY scary image courtesy of Calculated Risk.

Click image for full size graphic.

When the F-15 Would be Better Than the F-22

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The USAF is looking at replacing all the mechanically scanned radars with electronically scanned AESA radars.

A dirty little secret is that this would make the F-15 superior to the F-22 in some of the missions that it is most touted in, particularly cruise missile interception, because of basic physics.

The F-15 has a larger space in the nose for a radar, so the aperture, and hence resolution and range, woudl be greater.

Picture pr0n below:

Coast Guard Stripped of Acquisition Power

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Following the Coast Guard’s Deepwater modernization program, I am not surprised that the Department of Homeland Security has stripped the Coast Guard of acquisition authority, so that now the DHS will have to sign off on, and supervise all contracts.

To be fair, this is not entirely the Coast Guard’s fault. Deepwater was managed under the Lead System Integrator (LSI) model, which is best defined as trusting the fox to manage the hen house.

Now, if only we could do the same with the USAF and Navy.

Neat Tech: Fiber Optic

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NASA is using Fiber-optic stress and strain gauges to evaluate dynamic loads on wings and other aerodynamic surfaces. (paid subscription required)

In addition to being lower profile than conventional strain gauges (see pictures) the technology looks likely to be small enough, light enough, and unobtrusive enough so it would be embedded in aircraft for real time structural health reporting.

It could also be used as a part of a wing that actively changes its camber, a “son of the mission adaptive wing” that NASA tested on the F-111 over a decade ago.

DARPA Looks at Riverine Submersible

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I think that what they want is extremely ambitious, and may be very difficult to achieve.

They are looking at the vehicle being able to semi-autonomously deploy in the treacherous waters of, “rivers, inlets, harbors and other shallow waters,” burrow in the mud, and conduct surveillance.

It would need to navigate its way quietly through the frequently murkey, with turbulent currents and things like sandbars to further complicate things.

Additionally they want to be able to sleep for an extended time.

I don’t think that this is going to happen, but the the pictures are wicked cool:

South African Rooivalk Attack Helo Still in Limbo

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I always thought that this was a promising project, particularly in an COINS application, as the SADF had that as its primary duty before the end of Apartheid.

It appears that I was wrong and the Rooivalk program is a mess (paid subscription required).

Only 12 production helos were delivered, there are no prospects for foreign sales, and they have dissimilar avionics fits across the fleet, and they are now talking about, “revised functionality within the existing allocated financial resources,” which means downgraded capabilities.

I Don’t Know About You, But I Just Love Aviation Pr0n

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No women, just aircraft, though I’m not sure how I would classify aircraft nose art.

In any case, this is about NASA cutting contacts with aviation manufacturers to set its aeronautics agenda for the next few decades. (paid subscription required)

What gets my blood going are the concepts, whether SSTs, that look like they came out of the Thunderbirds classic TV show:

Open rotor engines:

And new configurations:


New engine congfigurations


Lowspeed high efficiency aircraft with externally braced wings

$206 Billion Cost Growth: 5 Weapons Systems

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Yep, just five weapons gave us $206 billion in cost overruns:

  • Lockheed Martin Corp.: F-35 Lightning II, $66.8 billion
  • Boeing: Future Combat Systems, $69.7 billion
  • Lockheed and Boeing’s: Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle, $18.5 billion
  • General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman: Virginia-class SSN, $27.3
  • Various: Chemical Demilitarization program, $23.4 billion

The last one covers a number of contractors, and is for destroying US Chemical warfare stockpiles.

How the hell do you go that far over budget incinerating nerve gas? Just how much of this stuff is lying around in arsenals?

Seriously DoD procurement is completely out of control, and it’s going to take us down the way it took down the USSR.

Hey, I Worked on This!!!!

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In 1996, I was brought in to work at what was then Loral Vought Systems to work on navalization issues for the VT1 missile, which was the missile for the Crotale NG system from Thompson CSF.

Now, they have adapted the missile for vertical launch, and made a successful launch.

It’s a fairly simple point defense system, roughly analagous to Seawolf, in that the launcher mounted fire control system guides the missile to the target, andt here is no seeker on the missile.

Since I’ve worked on the system, Thomson CSF become the French defense behemouth Thales.

Truth be told, I’m kind of surprised that they are still developing the missile. It feels like an awful long time ago.

It’s why I can claim to be a “rocket scientist”

Indian Navy Looks to Nuke Sub Lease Deal

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The Amur shipyard in Russia has started sea trials on the “kinda sorta new” Akula II boat.

It’s not completely new, construction was halted in 1991, but this is a very capable boat, and the Indians are getting for $650 million for a 10 year lease.

FWIW, I think that the cost has to be understated, even if the Russians are desparate to maintain their shipyards capabilities, this is a 10 cent sale.

JLTV Update

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The army had delayed the announcement downselection of proposals for the Hummvee replacement though the scuttlebutt is that there are three designs that will go on to the next , and they are buying interim mine resistant vehicles for Afghanistan.

The existing MRAPs are faring poorly on Afghanistan’s generally crappy roads and harsh terrain.

It’s either budget, or a problem with the program causing the delay.

Danger room has a report on the awards, but no link yet.

It’s confirmed. The winners for this stage are Lockheed Martin; a joint venture between General Dynamics Land Systems and AM General, and BAE Systems.

Of interest, no hybrid vehicles.

Delusional DoD Plans to Sandbag Next Pres, Barney Frank Fires Back

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Well, it looks like the DoD is ready for their next war, this one against the American tax payer:

As President George W. Bush prepares to leave office in three months, his budget writers at the Pentagon are planning to dump a giant budget increase on the team that replaces them.

Bradley Berkson, the Pentagon’s director of program analysis and evaluation, confirmed that defense budget officials are preparing spending plans for the next six years that add about $60 billion a year to the “base” military budget.

That would push the planned 2010 “base” defense budget to $587 billion, up from the previously proposed $527 billion. It would add $360 billion to Pentagon spending over six years.

In addition to the base budget for 2010, the Defense Department will need “supplemental” funding to keep fighting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Berkson said during an interview on the television show “This Week in Defense News.” The interview is slated to air on Oct. 22

….

I guess that this is because with the US responsible for over hall of the world’s defense spending, they need more money.

Here is the money quote:

By adding $60 billion a year to the long-range defense spending plan, the outgoing administration could put pressure on the new administration to boost military spending that was scheduled to level off after a decade of substantial increases. Any defense spending proposal that is lower than Bush’s 11th-hour bulked-up budget could be assailed as a defense spending cut.

This at a time when we are spending more on defense as a percentage of GDP than at any time since the end of WWII. More than Korea, more than Viet Nam, and more than during the invasion of Grenada.

Luckily, the tax payers have Dem. Barney Frank on thier side, and he’s proposing a 25% cut in military spending, which would be a good start.

We need boots on the ground, and M4/M16s. We don’t need the JSF, DDG-1000, EFV, FCS, etc.

I would also add that there are currently 5 enlisted men per 1 officer….For most of the existence of the military, it has been 10:1. It is a good place to save money, though some of that should go back into retaining the senior NCO corps who are leaving in droves.

Pantagon Slow Walking Directed Energy Weapons

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Not just lasers, but also things like electronics frying high power microwaves, etc.

This appears to be driven by cost and obsolescence issues(paid subscription required):

….

“Cross-domain synergies [result] when a [cyber or electronic] nonkinetic and [an explosive] kinetic weapon of any kind can be used in concert,” says Maj. Gen. William Lord, chief of Cyber Command (Provisional). “This can potentially be a weapon of mass disruption [that unlike a bomb, you can] ratchet back. It’s about changing enemy behavior [without] total destruction. What cyber– [and electronic attack] weapons bring is something between a letter and a 2,000-lb. bomb.”

“We’re trying to bring [cyber– and electronic weapons] all together as a total investment for the benefit of the warfighter,” says Jay Kistler, technology adviser for the Pentagon’s Office of Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (AT&L). “We’re working with all the players who are trying to get their arms around what we mean by cyber-operations and how we control them. And there is the recognition that electronic warfare overlaps cyber, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.”

….

“It can’t take 10-15 years to develop [a cyber– or electronic weapon],” says Lord. “We need things that get created and then [thrown] away in months, weeks or days. There also is a group looking at how to do more rapid acquisition.

So in addition to the inevitable draw down on Pentagon budgets (more on that later), the fact that they are dealing with civilian, and civilian derived, devices that have a total life cycle of less than 5 years from beginning of development to withdrawal from the market, mean that they don’t know how to make all their whiz bang work.

Of course the fact that they are using the term, “synergies,” strongly implies that the people in this field are bullsh#% artists too.

Well, Natalie’s Back

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She, along with most of the rest of her class at Franklin Middle School, went on a class trip to a camp at North Bay on Monday, a camp located at the very north of the Chesapeake bay, and she came home today.

It was a science field trip, she studied the econolgy, turtles, stuff like that.

It seems to have calmed her down a bit…for a while at least.

Mithras is Dead Wrong

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The proprietor of Tales of the Reconstruction is making fun of Sarah Palin, after she says something so stupid that you hope someone cuts her meat for her.

I’m cool with that, but then s/he says this, “She’s George W. Bush without the intellect. God, I hope this woman is a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination in four years.

No….What’s more, F$#@ no. I have occasinally quoted what my my father said in 1968, which was something like, “Those stupid bastards, they’ve nominated Nixon, there is no way that we can lose now.”

Never, EVER wish a bad candidate on the public. They might just win.

On the other hand, you should clikc on the link and read the blog post. Sarah Palin is very, VERY, stupid, and it’s fun to laugh at her.

The USAF’s Broken Procurement Program, and Remedies for This

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The USAF is looking to cut more than 250 fighters from its fleet, in order to make budget space for the increasingly expensive F-35.

The problem is that, once again, the aircraft are too damn expensive. More is the enemy of “good enough”.

In the meantime,
David Axe points to a book which proposes a solution, which suggests smaller and lighter aircraft, America’s Defense Meltdown.

They propose two aircraft:

  • A 9 ton class air-to-air fighter with a 16 ton class engine with a, “cutting edge, all-passive with 360-degree infrared and radar warning gear” that is supposed to be cheaper than an F-16.

I do not find this one particularly realistic. Whenever you insert the phrase “cutting edge” in a phrase, you never get low cost.

The other one is more interesting:

  • A higher performance aircraft to replace the A-10.

Given that the rate of fire of the A-10 of the GAU-8 cannon has been reduced by about 1/2, because the accuracy requires further rounds, simply by reducing the size and weight of the cannon, and the ammunition loadout, along with using a more modern engine with a higher thrust to weight ratio, you easily get to a thrust to weight ratio at combat weights that approaches unity. With advances in things like Aluminum alloys and ceramic armor, performance could be further improved.

The problem is that while the Army would love such an aircraft, the USAF hates it, and has been trying to kill the A-10 since sometime around 1981, and so is completely uninterested in developing a successor.