Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Major Army Strategist Savages Future Combat System*

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Col. H.R. McMaster, a, “is a highly influential soldier-scholar who is currently putting together a brain trust for Gen. David Petraeus to review U.S. policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan,” just released a blistering paper condemning the direction of the US military.

He believes that the folks who support the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), which espouses high tech communications, surveillance, and precision weapons at the expense of boots on the ground is are profoundly wrong, and unclear on what is actually going on the ground right now.

He also cuts the flyboyz in the USAF a new one while he’s at it.

Good read, check it out.

*Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, “wrecker” variant of the FCS-MGV* from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts).

OK, Time to Call an Obama Adviser Stupid

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Specifically Paul Kaminiski, who is talking up a dual buy strategy for the USAF tanker competition.

There are a number of problems, not the least of which is the fact that this is the worst of all possible solutions, doubling inventory and supply issues.

You also pay the cost of the tooling and engineering twice

A bad deal for the tax payer and the military.

There is also the problem that the 767s being made for Italy do not work. (Paid subscription required)

Boeing has assigned a “tiger team” to deal with the wing flutter issues caused by the refuelling pods.

I Knew that It Did Not Look Right

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When I last posted about the PiperJet, I said that it didn’t look right, though I added the caveat that the same applies to the F-4 Phantom II.

Well, it appears that my hunch meant something. Piper is looking at , modifications to the airframe to deal with pitch changes from changes in thrust. They have an automatic trim system to handle this, but they would like to eliminate this and use, “a Coanda effect device that would channel the jet’s exhaust in an appropriate direction to reduce nose-down moment created by adding power and nose-up trim changes when decreasing power.”

Basically, they are talking a poor man’s thrust vectoring, I think.

“Baby Seal” Report May Have Cost RAND Analyst Their Job

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It appears that John Stillion has abruptly left his job as an analyst at the RAND corporation, He’s best known for writing a report which described the JSF as being clubbed like a baby seal in air to air combat by aircraft already flying.

Dennis Jensen, an Australian MP and a fierce critic of the JSF, who used this report to argue against Australia purchaasing the aircraft, is alleging that he was fired for this report.

Curiouser and curiouser.

I Recall an Anime Movie About This

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Specifically Hayao Miyazaki’s Howl’s Moving Castle.

Only this one is real, or at least in prototype state courtesy of those wacky Danes from art collective N55 in Copenhagen.

The theory is that when rising ocean levels from global warming make your current location to wet, the house walks somewhere else.

Reminds me of that bit of dialogue from a Get Smart episode:

99: What’s that?

Max: An electric snake, we’ll send it it to get
information.

99: What does it run on?

Max: Tiny Little Feet.

Heh.

Not Enough Bullets: Tax Loophole Edition

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Well, now we know why Wells Fargo wanted wanted to buy Wachovia, a tax loophole

The day after Citigroup made its bid, the Treasury changed a tax rule that lets banks accelerate the losses and writedowns on banks they acquire against their own net income, offsetting the charges as tax write-offs.

Wells plans on writing off some $74 billion of Wachovia’s $498 billion loan portfolio — an insanely large amount that reflects just how poisoned Wachovia’s books really were. With the new tax rules, it gets to use all of that $74 billion as a charge against its own net income, which means one thing: Wells Fargo’s going to be a tax-write-off machine for years to come.

Not enough bullets.

Bachmann Now Behind Tinklenberg

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SurveyUSA has the numbers:
Michele Bachmann(Insane ‘Phant): 44%
Elwyn Tinklenberg* (D): 47%
Bob Anderson (I) 6%.

There is a 4% margin of error, so it’s still too close to call. There is only about 2% undecided, and so the 2:1 undecideds breaking against the incumbent does not mean much here.

It will be close.

*I know that it’s not nice to make fun of someone’s name, but his name still sounds like a character from Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegone.

Economics Update

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In energy, OPEC formally announces production cuts, though the price of oil continues to fall, as does the price of gasoline.

It should be noted that even with falling energy prices, the markets are so spooked that the futures contracts triggered so called circuit breakers for the S&P 500.

It’s not just the S%P that has gone into the twilight zone. The credit meltdown has pushed the interest rate of long term interest rate derivatives to negative numbers. Basically, it’s a “safe” way to lock in an interest rate, and the market is so uncertain, that people are willing do do worse than their mattresss.

Meanwhile currency is…well…confused, with the dollar gaining against the Pound and Euro, but the Yen hit a 13 year high. No clue as to what is going on there.

In any case, even if the recession isn’t official yet, it is in the UK, where GDP fell by 0.2%.

Bad Financial Journalism

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So, here we see the artcle based on data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), an organization whose statements should trigger very loud bullsh^% alert titled, “U.S. Home Resales Rose in September to One-Year High.”

Noting that home sales grew 5.1% from in September, 2008 as compared to August 2008.

The housing crash is over…Let the rejoicing begin!!!!!

Bad Journalism…the real story is that, “Foreclosure-related sales accounted for 35 percent to 40 percent of last month’s total,” and that’s the NAR’s, whose job is to lie like a rug present a rosy estimate.

But Mr. Morggage of the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter notes that actual existing home sales are down, the month to month is created by seasonal sdjustments, and seasonal markets only should be applied to a stable market, not one in free fall.

By his figuring, existing home sales fell by 9.6% between August and September.

Me, I’d split the difference, which gives us (5.1%-9.6%)/2 or a drop of 2.05% for no reason at all. I pulled the equation out of my overly ample ass.

See table pron below.


Click for full sized.