Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Zimbabwe Update

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First, the Mugabe government seized Morgan Tsvangerai’s passport at the airport, but returned it after threats from Botswana’s President Seretse Khama Ian Khama threatened not to attend a regional summit.

Tsvangerai is saying that he is committed to the negotiations, though with the entire passport debacle, Mugabe’s commitment is in doubt.

One interesting bit of information is that a mining company is holding talks with the MDC about platinum concessions, which indicates that someone thinks that there is a chance that someone other than Mugabe will have control of such things.

Shadow Inventory

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Oh
My
God

Shadow inventory are houses available but not listed in the MLS system.

Most often, these are REO (Real Estate Owned, foreclosures and such), and the Sacramento Real Estate Statistics blog has some numbers on a few markets.

City

MLS Listings

Foreclosure Inventory

% of Listings

Sacramento

14,913

31,219

209%

San Francisco

18,647

35,402

190%

Inland Empire

45,490

82,114

181%

San Diego

18,771

31,168

166%

Los Angeles

62,379

88,843

142%

So the massive inventory out there, might account for less than half of all the houses actually on the market.

Time to freak out?

What is Going on in Georgia

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I knew that Russia decimated the Georgian army, but I had no clue as to how totally completely they owned them:

It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.

So the Georgians have forsworn the use of force to get back the provinces, Russia has the right, for an indeterminate amount of time, to stay in Georgian territory, and take “additional security measures.”

Meanwhile, the Russians are telling George W. Bush and the Georgians to pound sand on the autonomous regions:

Medvedev said he would support the independence aspirations of South Ossetians and Abkhazians in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international conventions of 1966 and the Helsinki Act on Security and Cooperation in European.

“You have been defending your land, and the right is on your side,” Medvedev said at a meeting with leaders of the two breakaway regions.

“Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the UN Charter,” he said, adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”

Georgia is going to be smaller in a few years.

Economics Update

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Weekly initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, at 450K as opposed 432K, and the 4 week moving average is 440.5K, the highest number since 2002.

At the same time, the CPI numbers are grim, with prices up 0.8% in July, and 5.6% year over year.

The Europeans are not doing much better, with GDP declining 0.2% in the 2nd quarter.

The European weakness, meant a Euro weakness, with the dollar gaining against the Euro.

These indications of a global slowdown have pushed oil prices lower, and Gasoline is down too.

Don’t expect a real estate recovery to save the economy though, foreclosures are up 8% for the month, and 55% year over year, and home prices have fallen 7.6% year over year.

Charges in Taser Death

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A jury has indicted former Winnfield police officer Scott Nugent for manslaughter. He tasered Baron “Scooter” Pikes 9 times after he was subdued and handcuffed.

Considering that there had been 14 uses of the taser by the Winnfield department, and Nugent had used it 10 of those times, he was clearly a problem before this.

Had I been the prosecutor, I would have put felony murder on the table, because he was committing a felony, aggravated assault and battery, when the death occurred.

I’m sure that Nugent will get the best defense that Taser, International can buy, because they don’t want this to be a precedent in product liability cases.

Background here and here.

Lebanon-Syria to Negotiate on Border

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It should be noted that they will not negotiate on Shebaa Farms until Israel leaves the region.

This is tantamount to a Syrian declaration that they believe it to be theirs, because if they did cede it to Lebanon, Israel would be out the next day, as there is no other reason to hold the land except as a bargaining chip in a land for peace deal with Syria.

Still, the negotiations are a promising development in the disaster that is Lebanon.

Generals Trash Talking Each Other at Gitmo Trials

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You know, this sounds like some some of these folks realize that Bush only has 4 months, and that they are trying to cover their asses about the inevitable career destroying investigations:

One general testified about another general at the war court Wednesday, describing a Pentagon official fast-tracking trials here as “abusive, bullying, unprofessional.”

Moreover, in testimony, Army Brig. Gen. Gregory Zanetti, deputy prison camps commander, described the approach employed earlier this year by his counterpart, Air Force Brig. Gen. Thomas Hartmann, this way:

“Spray and pray. Charge everybody. Let’s go. Speed, speed, speed.”

I wonder who will be the next rat to sing in court.

The Big Picture From The Big Picture: False Foreclosure Bottom

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Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture notes that the recent data showing a slowing in foreclosures is an artifact of changes in foreclosure law in a few hard-hit states:

  • California requires lenders to wait an additional 30 days after a homeowner misses the first payment before filing a default notice;
  • Massachusetts now gives homeowners a three-months grace period after they default on their mortgage before the lender can file to foreclose. (The law is credited with an 84% drop in foreclosure petitions);
  • New York passed a bill last week that requires lenders to send a preforeclosure notice to certain borrowers at least 90 days before foreclosure proceedings may be initiated;

Of course, the financial press is looking the delays caused by these changes, and running around saying, “Foreclosures are down, the housing crash has finally hit bottom.”

The only place with more false bottoms than financial Journalism is a Beverly Hills plastic surgery clinic.

The only thing that surprises me is that he links to an article that actually points out this fact, though it does have the prize quote, “Some cynics say the laws are designed to give the appearance that the housing crisis is easing ahead of the November elections.”

We cynics prefer to call ourselves the, “Reality Based Community.”

Damn. I Can’t Write this Badly.

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Well, it’s time for the Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest, 2008 Results.

I’m relieved that there people who write worse than I do, even though they are trying to write badly.

The winner, if you can call it that, was one Garrison Spik of Washington, D.C. :

Theirs was a New York love, a checkered taxi ride burning rubber, and like the city their passion was open 24/7, steam rising from their bodies like slick streets exhaling warm, moist, white breath through manhole covers stamped “Forged by DeLaney Bros., Piscataway, N.J.”

I’m impressed….Horrified, but impressed.

I Find this Hard to Believe

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Haaretz is reporting that the US rejected an Israeli request for military equipmment to aid with a strike on Iran, and I don’t buy it.

The reason that I don’t buy it is because Bush and His Evil Minions™ want to strike Iran, but if it’s an American strike, the political backlash is simply too uncertain.

The Bush administration would love an Israeli strike.

This is leaked information, coming either from the Bush administration, or the Olmert adminiatration.

If it’s the former, it’s a way to ratchet up pressure on Iran, if it’s the latter, it’s a leak designed to boost Kadima’s chances in the election.

Wanker of the Day: Cokie Roberts

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For saying that Barack Obama is somehow elitist for going to Hawaii, where his grandmother lives.

I spent 10 of my first 18 years on the west coast. Hawaii is not an exotic vacation location….It’s firmly middlebrow…Unless, of course, you think that going outside the DC beltway is a long trip.

Hawaii’s Congressional delegation weighed in too:

The comments, received a lot of backlash from Hawaii’s representatives in Washington.

“She’s a bit of a fool that’s the only thing you can say,” said Rep. Neil Abercrombie. ” Don’t forget Cokie Roberts and the whole Washington crowd live in a kind of an incestuous relationship to one another, they talk to one another, they see one another, they know nothing about ordinary people.”

In a statement, Senator Daniel Akaka said calling Hawaii “foreign” does a disservice to the hardworking patriotic Americans who call Hawaii home.

(emphasis mine)

I rather imagine that Senator Daniel Inouye, who lost his arm serving this country, did not have a quote suitable for publication.

The Cost of America’s Prison Society

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The court appointed overseer of prison healthcare in California has moved to seize $8 billion from the California treasury for healthcare for inmates.

California’s spending on prisons exceeded its spending on education the state university system some time in the early 1980s, and has aggressively pursued incarceration with the most aggressive “three strikes” law enforcement in the nation.

It looks like the people of California will have to start paying for their imprisonment fetish.

Hopefully, this will make the people of California think about the value of the war on drugs and our prison society.

There is a greater proportion of the US population imprisoned than any other society in history…ever.

Arkansas State Democratic Party Chair Shot and Killed

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I’m not claiming a conspiracy, after all, if you were going to do this, you would not choose someone in Arkansas like Bill Gwatney, which is not a likely location for a Republican pickup in Congress or an Obama victory in November.

I will say, however that the tenor of political discourse, with such things as David Boehner calling for Pelosi’s lynching contributes to these events.

With it increasingly looking like Obama will take the White House, there is a growing segment of the Republican base, who believe that God intends them to rule forever, who will be willing, even eager, to use terrorism in furtherance of their cause.

This is a Bitch Slap, and Obama Needs to Respond

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Joe “I’d Call him a Schmuck, but a Schmuck has a Head” Lieberman is now claiming that, “Obama hasn’t put the country first,” and the McCain campaign, despite John Sidney McCain III’s promise that he and his campaign would not question his patriotism, is endorsing the statement.

Obama needs to hit back, hard, because he has just been bitch slapped, and if he just takes it, it makes the statement that he’s, “Someone who can’t or won’t defend themselves certainly isn’t someone you can depend upon to defend you.” (link)

What Roubini and Meyerson Said

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Nouriel Roubini, in The Decline of the American Empire, and Harold Meyerson, in The Drums of Change, both make a very similar point: that America’s time as the sole unchallanged “hyperpower” is coming to an end.

I would have to say that Meyerson is far less interesting than Roubini, he simply notes that the Chinese are growing more powerful by the day, and that Russia is exerting its muscles in its immediate neighborhood.

Roubini, on the other hand, makes it clear that he believes that, “three factors suggest that the US has squandered its unipolar moment and that the decline of the American Empire – as the US was in effect a global empire – has started.” (emphasis mine)

His factors are:

  • Excessive reliance on hard military power, and to unilateral a foreign policy.
  • That other powers, China, a unified Europe, a resurgent Russia, and the rise of regional powers such as Brazil, South Africa, and Iran will mean that the US will find more peers and near peers in the future.
  • That the, “US squandered its economic and financial power by running reckless economic policies, especially its twin fiscal and current account deficits”, which are increasingly financed by foreign governments and foreign investors.

He notes that the movement of foreign reserves from Treasuries to sovereign wealth funds in search of better returns is indicative of the fact that those creditors are nearing a point where they will make demands.

Speaking for myself, and not the good Dr., I would also note that the American way of life, or more accurately the standards of living for the top 1% and the phony economy of Wall Street, have not been sustainable for decades, and the transformation of the US from the largest creditor nation into the largest debtor nation during the Reagan administration shows this.

More Confusion, and Stupidity On Georgia

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First, I think that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili realizes that he’s lost, and that his support is now crumbling. At least that’s my explanation for his increasingly erratic rhetoric, where he went on CNN, and talking about fighting to the “last drop of blood”.

He gambled, and he lost, and at best all he can hope for is that he manages to hold out until the next elections.

This is also explains why he claims that the US will take control of Georgian ports, a claim what was promptly refuted by the Pentagon, “We are not looking to, nor do we need to, take control of any air or sea ports to conduct this mission,” said Geoff Morrell, Pentagon spokesman. (emphasis mine)

It’s also why he said that the humanitarian aid was a part of a greater military involvement:

But while Mr. Bush said the United States “stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and insists that its sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected,” his remarks contained no hint of an American military role in Georgia, other than providing humanitarian assistance.

However, minutes after Mr. Bush’s comments, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia characterized the import of the American aid as “definitely an American military presence” and called it a “turning point.”

Needless to say, Bush’s statements that he wanted to convey, “unwavering support for Georgia’s democratic government,” are not helping the situation.

Putin is the last person on earth that I would want to bluff if he knew it was a bluff, and he knows that Bush’s bravado is just a bluff.

Needless to say, the only person desperate enough, or stupid enough to believe this is Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.