Author: Matthew G. Saroff

The Navy has been Delivering a Lunchbag of Bulls#@$ to Congress Regarding Surface Combatants for Three Years

That is the money quote on the cancellation of the DDG-1000 at 2 ships. It appears that while it could technically carry Standard missiles in its vertical launchers, it could not guide the missiles, and would have had to rely on another ship to do so:

However, in the current program of record, the DDG-1000 cannot perform area air defense; specifically, it cannot successfully employ the Standard Missile-2 (SM-2), SM-3 or SM-6, and is incapable of conducting Ballistic Missile Defense.

(emphasis mine)

No Standard missile capability, so it’s just point defense (Sea Sparrow), and ground attack. As Galrahn notes, that makes it a more expensive variant of the Arsenal Ship canceled in the late 1990s, despite the fact that the navy very strongly implied, through the DDG designation (the “G” standing for guided missile air defense), and through its expansive descriptions of the sensor suite, that the ship could provide air defense.

It appears that the threats from new generations of anti-ship missiles will have the navy buying more Burke class DDGs, though some DDG-1000 tech would make into the new build destroyers, primarily electric drives and the new gun, along with systems to allow for a reduced crew size.

And the Award for Best Use of Monty Python in the Context of a Complex Financial Instrument Goes To…

Mark Gilbert:

CDO Market Is Dead, Not Just Pining for Fjords: Mark Gilbert

Commentary by Mark Gilbert (with apologies to Monty Python)

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) — Hedge-Fund Guy enters an investment bank. “I wish to complain about this derivative security what I purchased not two years ago from this very boutique,” he says.

“Ah yes, the Collateralized-Debt Obligation,” says the Wall Street Banker. “What’s wrong with him?”

“I’ll tell you what’s wrong with him, my lad. He’s dead, that’s what’s wrong with him!”

Wall Street Banker: “No, no, he’s … restin’.” Hedge-Fund Guy: “Look, matey, I know a dead derivative when I see one, and I’m looking at one right now.”

“No, no, he’s not dead, he’s restin’! Remarkable investment, the CDO, isn’t it? Beautiful plumage!”

“The plumage don’t enter into it. He’s stone dead.”

Go read the rest, and don’t try to drink anything at the same time.

Anthrax Update

My position remains the same as always, that until I see evidence of how Bruce Ivins might have been able to acquire the equipment, which was not at Fort Detrick, and know how, which was not at Fort Detrick, to weaponize the anthrax, I am dubious of the FBI’s case.

Had the case really been strong enough to go to court, they would have arrested him, instead of harassing him.

Meryl Nass, M.D., who has more background in this area than I do, runs down her concerns with the case, and notes that over 100 people had access to the flask.

Additionally, experts in the field are requesting a peer review of the FBI’s genetic test, which, considering the record of problems at the FBI crime lab, is not at all unreasonable.

Finally, Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) and Rep. Rush D. Holt (D-N.J.) are calling for an investigation of the investigation, which would be a good thing.

Navy Ignoring Riverine Warfare

So the US Army is forced to up their own “Swift Boat” corps, and members of the 101st Airborn are now on boats.

I’m sure that they will do a good job, and it appears that these guys are gung ho about this, but the Navy should handling things like patrolling the Euphrates river.

As Galrahn notes, “Imagine a world where the Navy’s leadership was excited about doing the Navy’s job as those Army guys reportedly are.”

AAAV on Chopping Block?

It’s now called the EFV, Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, but when I worked on it,* it was called the AAAV, the Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle.

In any case, this program is yet another long term defense development program that is seriously screwed up.

The Marines just signed a, “$766.8 million cost-plus-incentive-fee contract,” for two prototypes under the, “system development and demonstration-2 phase”, which means that the original SDD did not work out so well.

The program has been delayed IOC in 2015 and full operational capability in 2025, which is a 35 year development track, and while the Senate is moving toward accelerating production, the House is looking at cutting funding.

Every single service has a jewel of acquisition programs, and they are all in trouble, with the EFV for the Marines, the DDG-1000 for the Navy, the FCS-MGV for the Army, and the F-22 (and to a lesser degree the F-35 and tanker) for the USAF.

Our defense procurement system is broken.

*Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

Boeing Looks to Apache Upgrade

Basically, the modifications are to the engines, structure, and avionics:

  • Composite rotor blades.
  • A composite after body.
  • Upgraded transmission, capable of handling 3,400shp, up from 2,860shp.
  • A new 3000 shp engine.
  • Active defense systems.
  • Synthetic vision for the crew helmets.

Not clear on the need for the engine upgrade, as the two existing 1,900shp T701D engines already put out more horsepower than the upgraded transmission could handle.

Falcon Launch Fails, Scotty Misses Orbit

This makes SpaceX 0 for 3 on its Falcon-1 rockets.

This time they lost three small satellites and the ashes of 208 people, including Star Trek alum Jimmy Doohan and astronaut Gordon Cooper.

It appears to have been a problem with stage separation:

“Four methods of analysis, vehicle inertial measurement, chamber pressure, on-board video and a simple physics free body calculation, all give the same answer. [Residual thrust caused] the first stage to recontact the second stage,” says SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk.

According to SpaceX, unburned fuel in the engine’s cooling channels and manifold combined with residual oxygen to produce enough thrust to overcome the separation impulse. The solution is to increase the time between commanding main engine shutdown and stage separation.

Bummer for the families involved.

Indian BVR Missile

India is developing a beyond visual range air to air missile called the Astra (Paid Subscription Required).

Considering the record of the Defense Research Development Organization (DRDO), my daughter, now 11, will be out of college before they get to final testing.

The missile looks rather similar to the French Super 530 missile, which the Indian Air Force operates, or at least did operate, though at 160kg, it’s about 60% of the weight of the Super 530, which clocks in at 275 kilos.

Obama Campaign Uses “L” Word

Finally. The Obama has used the word “lie” to describe McCain’s latest ad.

People in Washington hate the term, but who cares, the electorate appreciates “straight talk.”

From Obama spokesperson Hari Sevugan:

This ad is a lie, and it’s part of the old, tired politics of a party in Washington that has run out of ideas and run out of steam. Even though a host of independent, nonpartisan organizations have said this attack isn’t true, Senator McCain continues to lie about Senator Obama’s plan to give 95% of all families a tax cut of $1,000, and not raise taxes for those making under $250,000 a single dime. The reason so many families are hurting today is because we’ve had eight years of failed Bush policies that Senator McCain wants to continue for another four, and that’s what Barack Obama will change as President.

Economics Update

Well, Fannie Mae just posted a $2.3 billion loss, cut its dividend, and is will no longer buy and resell Alt-A mortgages.

That sound you hear is the housing market seizing up, and it does look like mortages will be getting more expensive, and given that the spread between LIBOR and Treasury Bills, the so called “TED Spread”, remains at near historic highs, I don’t really see any unfreezing in the near to medium future.

However, the the US dollar is on a tear right now, and a strong dollar attracts investment, which means that there is more money out there to lend, which might make loans cheaper.

I still think that current interest rates are unsustainably low, but YMMV.

Oil and gasoline are down, as are commodities like copper, silver, and gold.

This points to declining inflation, good news, but only because there are real signs of a deep, hard recession, which is bad news.

The fact that Productivity growth has slowed points to a slowdown too.

I wonder what the moderation in commodities will do to wholesale inventory numbers, which have been up because of price appreciation in said commodities.

BTW, a monoliner insurer just went belly up. ACA Capital Holdings Inc. just terminated $65 billion in credit default contracts, and turned itself over to creditors.

BTW, as a result of the IndyMac implosion, people are starting to split their bank accounts among multiple banks, to ensure that they are all completely covered by FDIC insurance.

I think that we are seeing a generational shift in the attitudes of people about finance and investing.

Cohen Crushes Anti-Semitic Harold Ford Protege

By more than 4:1, 79% to 19%.

Interestingly enough, my (very Republican, so not voting in the Dem Primary) Brother-inlaw lives in the district, but in any case this is good news for America, for a number of reasons:

  • Bigotry has been repudiated.
  • The Harold Ford machine just got its butt kicked.
  • EMILY’s List got schooled, and will hopefully get better at vetting candidates.
  • Rahm Emmanuel who is a close friend of Harold Ford, and kept DCCC moany away from Cohen got pwn3d.
  • Steve Cohen is one of the best Freshman out there.

And someone found a copy of the disgusting anti-Semitic ad on the web:

Disgraceful.