Tag: employment

Step 1, Buy an Anti Labor Plebescite, Step 2, F%$# Your Workers Like a Drunk Sorority Girl

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Fresh on the heels of Proposition 22 passing in California, Grubhub sets it sights on f%$#ing its employees out of tips, because it will reduce their potential responsibilities to those employees:

California-based workers for food delivery app Grubhub have reacted angrily to changes to the platform which they say discourage tipping, saying they would wipe out the supposed benefits of new gig worker rules in the state.

Last month, California passed Proposition 22, which though falling far short of the benefits received by full-time employees, gave gig workers a limited number.

Weeks after the ruling, Grubhub reduced its default tip amount from about 20 percent to zero, adding a suggestion to “leave an optional tip on top of driver benefits.”

Like other apps, Grubhub added an additional “benefit” fee, in its case $1.50, to each order in California—though that money is put into a centralized pot for which only a limited number of drivers are expected to fully qualify.

………

Under Proposition 22, workers receive a healthcare stipend, provided they clock at least an average of 15 hours per week on one of the gig apps. However, in order to qualify, workers must already be the primary policyholder on an existing healthcare plan.

To get the full stipend, workers must put in at least 25 hours per week. The companies only count “engaged” time, not including periods spent driving without an assigned job — estimated to be about a third of all time spent on the road, according to a University of California, Berkeley, study. No allowances are made for time off or sickness. Data shared by Uber suggested that about three-quarters of its own drivers would not meet this threshold.

………

But a study by University of California, Santa Cruz, in May determined that “delivery workers are particularly dependent on tips, which account for 30 percent of their estimated earnings.”

“I keep records,” said Jeanine, a Grubhub worker in the San Francisco Bay Area. “And there’s been a complete flip. It’s stunning.”

She shared with the Financial Times a breakdown of her tips on the platform both before and after the change. On two consecutive Saturdays she completed the same number of orders—eight—but on the first Saturday, before the change, 100 percent of her customers left at least a small tip—totalling $61.03.

On the second Saturday, five of her eight customers left no tip, with the rest totalling $24.71.

………

Uber and DoorDash last week said they would raise prices in order to fund Proposition 22 benefits, though as yet only Grubhub has made changes to its tipping system.

Yes, vote for the bullsh%$ initiative pursued by the gig economy companies, because they have the workers’ interests at heart.

If you believe that, then I have some swamp land in Florida for you.

Quote of the Day

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After an audit of the algorithm, the resume screening company found that the algorithm found two factors to be most indicative of job performance: their name was Jared, and whether they played high school lacrosse.

—Dave Gershgorn on Quartz about how algorithms reinforce bias.

I would argue that this is a feature, and not a bug.

When you look at the “Gig Economy”, and AI “Expert Systems,” the unspoking selling point is that they are, “money laundering for bias.”

And the Dead Cat Continues Its Descent

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The Thursday initial unemployment claims are even worse than last week, with unemployment claims rising to 885,000 from 853,000. (actually that number was revised up by 9,000 to 862,000)

The increase in unemployment is not a blip any more.

The trend is definitely going in the wrong way:

The number of workers seeking unemployment benefits increased to a three-month high, another sign the economy is entering a winter slowdown as coronavirus cases rise and trigger new business restrictions.

Unemployment claims rose for the second straight week to 885,000 in the week ended Dec. 12, the Labor Department said Thursday. Last week marked the highest level for claims since September, when 893,000 workers applied for jobless benefits.

More broadly, claims are down sharply from a peak of nearly 7 million in March, but the four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, is increasing after trending downward since the spring. The weekly figures can be volatile around the holidays due to seasonal-adjustment issues.

………

Economic data broadly point to a slowdown. Retail sales dropped 1.1% in November from a month earlier, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday. Overall consumer spending, which includes retail and services consumption, has continued to increase, but more slowly than over the summer.

………

Job growth cooled in November as many workers gave up looking for jobs. Robust job gains in the late spring and early summer largely reflected businesses adding back staff after lockdowns were lifted. But the recovery is far from complete, and many businesses continue to operate below capacity. Some state and local governments implemented new restrictions as coronavirus cases surged this fall.

While I expect any recovery to be faster than the debt-overhang of the great recession, it is not going to be fast, and it’s coming from a much lower place.

This will not end well.

If Only There Were Some Sort of Proxy for Value That We Could Offer Workers in Areas Where There Is a Shortage

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There appears to be much hand wringing over how immigration restrictions have created a shortage of teachers.

The very serious people (VSP) have been waging a war on teachers wages, benefits, working conditions, and job security for the past 4 decades, and now they have a problem finding teachers.

It’s pretty simple thing, if you don’t have enough teacher, pay them better, treat them better, and reduce the administrative barriers to entering the field.

Importing teachers is not a response to a shortage, it’s an exercise in labor arbitrage.

I’ll Take Lightweights with a Horrible Track Record for $500, Alex

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In what is clearly a case of political payback for his yeoman duty slapping down Fox News dweebs, Biden has announced that he will appoint Pete Buttigieg as Secretary of Transportation.

He has no background in transportation, and his tenure as Mayor of South Bend was problematic, particularly with regard to race. 

I’m not sure if this is a throw away appointment, Transportation Secretary frequently is, or if Biden thought that he would be the guy to run a freeway through minority neighborhoods, but in either case, it kind of sucks:

President-elect Joe Biden will nominate onetime rival Pete Buttigieg to be his secretary of transportation and former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm to be secretary of energy.

The move elevates Buttigieg to a key role in the incoming administration’s expected push to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure and economy and address climate change. Granholm, meanwhile, has been a strong voice for zero-emissions vehicles, arguing that the country must develop alternative energy technologies.

Biden also is tapping Gina McCarthy, who ran the Environmental Protection Agency under President Barack Obama and now leads a major advocacy group, to coordinate the new administration’s domestic climate agenda from a senior perch at the White House, according to three individuals familiar with the matter.

If you believe that personnel is policy, and I do, then this is yet more evidence that Joe Biden’s promise to his donors that, “Nothing will fundamentally change,” applies.

It is a formula for disaster.

The Velocity of a Dead Cat at the Apex is Zero

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It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose by 137,000 to 853,000 last week, an almost 20% jump in claims.

I have long maintained that the current “recovery” is a dead cat bounce*, and while one week does not make a trend, when combined with the recent Covid explosion, strongly suggest that we are in for a bumpy ride:

The economic recovery has downshifted, with job growth slowing and layoffs persisting at a high level amid rising coronavirus cases and related restrictions.

The number of workers seeking unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, climbed sharply by 137,000 to 853,000 last week, the Labor Department reported.

The level of applications was the highest since September, but still well down from a peak of nearly seven million in late March. The number of applications for a separate federal pandemic program also rose sharply last week.

The claims figures add to signs the recovery continues, but at a cooler pace. Job growth eased in November and the number of job openings edged down in early December. The labor market’s partial rebound has been a key component in the overall economic recovery from a pandemic-related downturn in the spring.

………

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month cut their projections for economic growth and job creation in the first quarter of 2021, but they expect the expansion to accelerate later in the year after coronavirus vaccines are more widely available.

 This will not end well.†

*I’ve been talking how the current “recovery” is a Dead Cat Bounce, which posits that. “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”, for a while now.
†Thanks to my brother, Bear Who Swims, for a new catch phrase.

Not Good

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US Job growth was about ½ what was forecast last month, 245,000 versus forecasts of around 440,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down, but a lot of that is people who have stopped looking:

U.S. job growth slowed sharply in November, suggesting the labor-market recovery is losing steam amid a surge in coronavirus cases and new business restrictions.

Employers added 245,000 jobs last month, down from 610,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged down slightly to 6.7% in November from 6.9% a month earlier, but that was partly because fewer Americans were seeking work.

………

Employers boosted jobs in transportation and warehousing last month, likely reflecting holiday hiring for e-commerce roles. Government payrolls declined by nearly 100,000, largely reflecting the roll-off of temporary workers hired for the 2020 census. Employment also fell in the retail category that includes bricks-and-mortar stores.

………

Economists say there are persistent risks of labor-market scarring. Many individuals, facing increased child-care responsibilities or limited job opportunities, have stopped looking for work altogether during the pandemic. The labor-force participation rate, or the share of Americans working or looking for work, was 61.5% in November. That is up from April’s trough, but remains near the lowest level since the 1970s.

The number of individuals out of the labor force who want a job increased in November to 7.1 million, Friday’s Labor Department report said.

The best metric we have for all of this is workforce participation, and it remains down.

In fact, it reached its peak 20 years ago, though the aging of the workforce has something to do with this.

From the perspective of the average job seeker, we have been in a recession for 20 years, which might explain and Trump Evil Minions™.

A Feature, Not a Bug

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It appears that Facebook (and as an aside, Google, Amazon, IBM, and the rest of them) have been using the various foreign worker programs to pay their employees less,which is in direct conflict with the black-letter law.

The Justice Department on Thursday sued Facebook over allegations that it discriminated against Americans in the way it hired temporary foreign workers for thousands of well-paid positions.

The lawsuit contends that Facebook failed to properly advertise at least 2,600 jobs — and consider applications from U.S. citizens — before it offered the spots to foreign workers whom the tech giant was sponsoring for green cards granting permanent residence.

Facebook’s practices violated federal laws that require employers to demonstrate that there are no qualified U.S. workers available before it offers positions to temporary foreign workers it is sponsoring, the Justice Department said. The government sought unspecified monetary damages and other penalties against the tech giant for the alleged violations, which occurred in 2018 and 2019.

“Our message to workers is clear: if companies deny employment opportunities by illegally preferring temporary visa holders, the Department of Justice will hold them accountable,” Eric S. Dreiband, assistant attorney general for the Civil Rights Division, said in a statement.

Facebook said it could not comment on the now-pending litigation, but spokesman Andy Stone said in a statement the company had been cooperating with the Justice Department fully on its probe and disputes the allegations in the complaint.

………

Facebook, in particular, long has sought to expand the ranks of high-skilled foreign laborers in the United States, including programs such as the H-1B visa, as they aim to recruit the critical talent necessary to power their highly technical operations. Trump, however, has sought to restrict such programs in recent months — announcing in October, for example, new limits on the visas that later drew broad corporate blowback.

In its complaint, the Justice Department said Facebook has eschewed its traditional hiring process in cases where it wanted to hire an employee on an H-1B visa for a permanent position. When a temporary visa holder sought such a job, Facebook “diverged from its normal recruiting protocols,” according to the government, opting in some cases against “advertising the position on its external website.”

If a U.S. worker applied for one of these jobs — and Facebook determined they were qualified — the company appeared to hire them in a different capacity, the lawsuit found. Federal law generally only allows a company to sponsor a temporary worker for a permanent position in cases where there is no qualified U.S. applicant.

This is not how the system is SUPPOSED to work, but it is how it ACTUALLY works.

Notwithstanding claims to the contrary, the H1B and L1A programs are used to hire cheap, not hiring people with skills unavailable elsewhere.

This has been an open secret since at least 1982, when I was told by someone at what is now the Massachusetts DUA not to even bother applying.

It’s Jobless Thursday

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Initial unemployment claims fell by 75,000 this week:

New applications for unemployment benefits fell last week after a recent jump, an indication that layoffs are easing but remain high as the labor market continues to recover from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and related restrictions.

Weekly initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 75,000 to a seasonally adjusted 712,000 in the week ended Nov. 28, the Labor Department said Thursday. That follows two consecutive increases and comes amid evidence that the economy continues to recover from the spring’s shutdowns, but at a slower pace. Last week’s level was only 1,000 more than the lowest level recorded since March, and well down from this year’s peak of nearly 7 million—but was still higher than any level recorded before 2020.

Several economists said they see the latest decrease as a possible anomaly related to last week’s Thanksgiving holiday. The data tends to be volatile around holidays, which affect states’ ability to process claims.

I’m not sure how accurate the numbers are going to be the rest of the year, but they remain historically high.

Finally, Someone Finally Fires Henry Kissinger

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Donald Trump once again did the right thing for the wrong reason, because he fired one of the worst war criminals in American history from the Defense Policy Board in a fit of pique.

Why this ghoul still prowls the halls of power is an indictment the whole US foreign policy and defense establishments:

Several members of the top federal advisory committee to the U.S. Department of Defense have been suddenly pushed out, multiple U.S. officials told Foreign Policy, in what appears to be the outgoing Trump administration’s parting shot at scions of the foreign-policy establishment.

The directive, which the Pentagon’s White House liaison Joshua Whitehouse sent on Wednesday afternoon, removes 11 high-profile advisors from the Defense Policy Board, including former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and Madeleine Albright; retired Adm. Gary Roughead, who served as chief of naval operations; and a onetime ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, Jane Harman. Rudy De Leon, a former chief operating officer at the Pentagon once considered by then-Defense Secretary James Mattis for a high-level policy role, will also be ousted.

Madeline Albright, who was the strongest advocate of the sanctions on Iraq, which resulted in something approaching 100,000 deaths as well.

The board seems to be primarily to be a way to provide a veneer of historical wisdom, and most brutal, policies of the American empire.

Also booted in today’s sweep of the board, which is effective immediately, were former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and David McCormick, a former Treasury Department undersecretary during the George W. Bush administration. Both had been added to the board by Mattis in 2017. Jamie Gorelick, a Clinton administration deputy attorney general; Robert Joseph, a chief U.S. nuclear negotiator who convinced Libya to give up weapons of mass destruction; former Bush Deputy National Security Advisor J.D. Crouch II; and Franklin Miller, a former top defense official, have also been removed.

………

The board, overseen by the Pentagon’s top policy official, the undersecretary of defense for policy, serves as a kind of in-house think tank on retainer for top military leaders, providing independent counsel and advice on defense policy. The Defense Policy Board includes former top military brass, secretaries of state, members of Congress, and other senior diplomats and foreign-policy experts. The status of two other members of the panel—or who would replace the ousted members—was not immediately clear.

………

The White House had sought to add Scott O’Grady, a former Air Force fighter pilot shot down over Bosnia, to the board to prepare him to be nominated for a top Pentagon position, as well as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a close ally of President Donald Trump. The administration had also vetoed adding retired Adm. Eric Olson, a former U.S. Special Operations Command chief, and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, as well as Gordon England, a former deputy secretary of defense during the Bush administration, over perceived anti-Trump ties. 

Like I said, the wrong reason to fire them all, but good riddance to this bastion of conventional (and wrong) thinking.

Initial Claims Up Again

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And the 4-week moving average rose for the first time since April.

Not good:

Jobless claims rose for the second straight week, to 778,000, a sign the nationwide surge in virus cases was starting to weigh on the labor-market recovery.

Claims haven’t risen for two consecutive weeks since July. Worker filings for unemployment insurance are down sharply from a peak of nearly seven million in late March. But they remain higher than in any previous recession—the pre-pandemic peak was 695,000 in 1982—for records tracing back to 1967.

Unemployment filings can be more volatile around the holidays, due to workweek changes that can cause seasonal-adjustment anomalies. The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly variation, increased by 5,000 to 748,500, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

………

A nationwide surge in Covid-19 cases threatens to weigh on the economic recovery, as many states and localities impose new restrictions on businesses, though less stringent than the ones introduced in the spring, economists say. Further, the spread of the virus, combined with the onset of winter, is likely to send more consumers indoors and hamper spending and employment in industries like restaurants.

And the $600 a week unemployment subsidy has ended, and extended claims and support for unemployed gig economy workers, will be terminated with the new year.

This won’t end well.

I Said That This Would Happen, and I Am the Second Worst Prognosticator in History*

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Once again, initial unemployment claims are rising under the dual whammys of a Covid explosion and the expiration of stimulus measures:

The number of applications for unemployment benefits rose sharply last week, indicating continued challenges for the U.S. economic recovery as coronavirus infections increased around the country.

Initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, rose to a seasonally adjusted 742,000 last week, up from the 711,000 filed a week earlier. That level is more than three times higher than the roughly 210,000 typically filed each week in the first two months of 2020, though it is down sharply from a peak of nearly seven million in late March.

At present levels, initial jobless claims are still higher than they were in any other recession on record.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.

*The worst prognosticator in history was my dad, Ron Saroff ז״ל, who in 1968 famously said, “Those bastards nominated Richard Nixon, there is no way that they can win!”

Another Better, but not Good, Unemployment Report

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709,000 initial jobless claims last week, so better, but still worse than any week not in 2020.

New applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, suggesting layoffs are easing as the broader economy flashes signs of improvement.

Initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, declined to 709,000 last week from 757,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. While weekly claims have fallen from a peak of near 7 million at the end of March, they remain well above levels of about 200,000 seen before the coronavirus hit this spring.

 

The Unemployment Rate Dropped in October

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Down to 6.9%.

As always, I am a pessimist, and think that this largely an illusion, and possibly some politically rat-f%$#ery.

Given the election, and the likelihood that Trump will spend the next 2½ months wrecking the place, I do not expect this to improve.

Also, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals some very real problems:

A better-than-expected October jobs report was immediately met with warnings that the surge in COVID-19 cases in the US could eventually force parts of the economy back into partial lockdowns.

That will apparently serve as the “fine print” on an otherwise solid report which showed the unemployment rate falling below 7%.

As ever, it’s important to look under the proverbial hood for evidence of the dreaded “scarring” effect that Jerome Powell (and other Fed officials) have consistently warned about since the onset of the pandemic. Jumping right in, long-term unemployment rose to 32.5% in October. That’s up sharply from 19.1% in September.

That figure has surged over the past two months. As Bloomberg’s Katia Dmitrieva puts it, “one-third of the unemployed haven’t had a job since the first round of coronavirus layoffs in April.”

Each month, I look at permanent job losses. Think of it as the economic equivalent of fatalities in the pandemic. It’s a macabre lagging indicator.

In October, that figure was little changed, stuck at nearly 3.7 million, up 2.4 million from February.

Needless to say, a situation that finds 2.4 million more job losses classified as “permanent” versus just eight months ago, argues for additional fiscal support.

Also notable is the rise in persons employed part time for economic reasons. October’s 383,000 increase was the first in five months.

………

The unfortunate reality is that payrolls remain 10 million lower than they were pre-pandemic. There’s (much) more work to be done. And surging COVID cases aren’t going to make that work any easier.

I am not the only won who thinks that we are in for the proverbial bumpy ride.

Unemployment Claims Steady This Week

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Unemployment claims were basically flat at 751,000, a drop of about seven thousand.

This is not indicative of a recovery:

The pace of the labor market recovery showed fresh signs of cooling last week, with new applications for unemployment benefits holding nearly steady as virus cases surged in several states.

Weekly initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 751,000 in the week ended Oct. 31, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the lowest level since mid-March, but was well above the 217,000 claims filed in late February, before economic shutdowns to control the spread of the new coronavirus began.

The previous week’s data were revised up by 7,000 to 758,000.

“The level of filings is trending down over time, but this downward trend has flattened noticeably,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Daniel Silver wrote in a note to clients. “This is consistent with the idea that the labor market continues to recover, but that the pace of improvement has moderated.”

As I’ve noted before, the initial recovery was 1 part dead cat bounce, and 1 part the stimulus package,and both of those have expires.

GDP and Unemployment Numbers Today

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The initial jobless claims numbers are out, and they are not so bad: 

The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week to the lowest level since the pandemic began, suggesting layoffs are easing despite a rise in coronavirus infections.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 40,000 to 751,000 in the week through Oct. 24, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the lowest level of claims since mid-March, just before the pandemic shut down much business activity throughout the U.S.

But the other shoe dropped on the Covid front:

Daily virus infections reached new highs over the past week, and it is too early to tell how employers and consumers will respond.

Claims remain exceptionally high by historical standards. Last week’s new claims were more than three times the weekly average early this year, before the pandemic. Initial claims, which reflect the number of people laid off only recently and not those receiving assistance for more than a week, are just one measure of unemployment assistance. In total, more than 20 million Americans are still receiving unemployment benefits through regular state and emergency programs.

The GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter also came out today, and that initial report shows that the economy grew at 7.4% between July and September, which is impressive, but with the stimulus having ended, and Covid infections hitting new records, I am calling (as I always do) a dead cat bounce:

U.S. economic output increased at the fastest pace on record last quarter as businesses began to reopen and customers returned to stores. But the economy has climbed only partway out of its pandemic-induced hole, and progress is slowing.

Gross domestic product grew 7.4 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The gain, the equivalent of 33.1 percent on an annualized basis, was by far the biggest since reliable statistics began after World War II.

The rebound was fueled in part by trillions of dollars in federal assistance to households and businesses. That aid has since dried up, even as the recovery remains far from complete: The economy in the third quarter was 3.5 percent smaller than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic. By comparison, G.D.P. shrank 4 percent over the entire year and a half of the Great Recession a decade ago.

………

Economists said the third-quarter figures revealed less about the strength of the recovery than about the severity of the collapse that preceded it. G.D.P. fell 1.3 percent in the first quarter and 9 percent in the second as the pandemic forced widespread business closures. A big rebound was inevitable once the economy began to reopen. The challenge is what comes next.

I do not think that the 4th quarter will come even close to the numbers, particularly with Covid exploding.

*It’s an old Wall Street saying, “Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height.”

This is Actually a Good Idea

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Which is the last thing that I would expect from Trump and Evil Minions™, but the proposal to award H1B visas on the basis of highest salary first, instead of doing so through a lottery.

My idea was to go through a lottery process, but this is also an elegant solution to the problem, assuming that the Indian body shops don’t manage to incorporate kick-backs into their recruiting.

I still favor a bid process for H1B applications though:

The Trump administration has proposed changes to the H-1B visa that will see it abolish the current lottery process and instead prioritise highly paid workers.

“Modifying the H-1B cap selection process by replacing the random selection process with a wage-level-based selection process is a better way to allocate H-1Bs when demand exceeds supply,” says a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announcement of the proposed policy.

“If finalized as proposed, this new selection process would incentivize employers to offer higher wages or petition for positions requiring higher skills and higher-skilled workers instead of using the program to fill relatively lower-paid vacancies.”

………

“The H-1B program is often exploited and abused by U.S. employers, and their U.S. clients, primarily seeking to hire foreign workers and pay lower wages,” said Acting DHS Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli. “The current use of random selection to allocate H-1B visas …. fails to leverage the H-1B program to truly compete for the world’s best and brightest, and hurts American workers by bringing in relatively lower-paid foreign labor at the expense of the American workforce.”

………

The document also suggests that economic benefits could possibly include:

  • A better chance of attracting skilled and highly paid workers to apply for the H-1B, plus the prospect of higher wages for visa applicants because paying them more would rank them more highly as visa applicants;
  • Increased job opportunities for lower-skilled US workers who would otherwise have to compete with H-1B visa-holder;
  • Increased wages for H-1B recipients whose earnings fall into middling earning bands.

This appears to actually be an well thought out and thoughtful policy.

I credit a few million monkeys chained to typewriters.

The Trump Stink

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Members of the Trump administration have discovered that with Donald Trump flagging in the polls, they have become toxic to future employers. 

They aren’t getting calls returned.

Oh the humanity:

Four years ago, some Republicans who said unsavory things during the campaign about the new president worried that such remarks might ruin their chances of redemption via employment in the Trump administration.

Today, some of those same Republicans are now quietly on the job hunt as President Trump’s standing in the polls continues to slide against Democratic nominee Joe Biden with decision time in just 18 days. But now, these GOPers are hoping the Trump presidency isn’t a disqualifying blemish on their resumes or Google footprint as the door revolves the other way and they seek to land, once again, in the private sector.

………

“There’s always a market for lobbyists, but look at someone like [former White House Press Secretary Sean] Spicer who had high-profile gigs in the White House and where did he land?” noted Amanda Carpenter, a Trump critic, CNN contributor and former aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). “He’s a host on Newsmax right now. That’s not the kind of leg-up to high-profile communications in the corporate world that’s the typical path…. If he can’t do it, I think people with such a high profile will have similar problems.”

………

Over a dozen Republican strategists, former Trump administration staffers, current Capitol Hill hands and associates close to the Trump White House predict that many graduates of the Trump administration could have a tough time sticking a landing in the private sector.

They say Trump’s shaky standing in the campaign — and his pull on down-ballot races — is already making Republicans especially nervous.

“Quiet conversations in Gmail are more active now than would be expected a month before an election,” said a senior Republican strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations. “I have a buddy in the administration who is starting to quietly move his resume around, and he’s noticed people who he thought would be quicker to respond to inquiries have been less so. He called it ‘the Trump stink. How much Trump stink is on my resume right now?‘”

………

This strategist said more prominent White House aides such as Mark Meadows and Stephen Miller may have bigger hurdles than more anonymous mid-tier aides seeking a job.

“But I don’t think Stephen Miller ever foresaw a job on K Street,” the strategist added.

Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, is one of the most recognizable current Trump White House officials. Carpenter predicts she will have an even more difficult time than Spicer if and when she exits but adds that for someone like McEnany, who made her name defending Trumpism on cable news, the benefits of the job might have outweighed other prospects.

………

Many of those interviewed for this story did not want to go on the record in order to discuss private conversations with candor. But they say concerns about hiring people from Trumpworld are real.

………

The longtime GOP strategist who runs a public affairs firm recalled coming close to hiring a former Trump White House staffer until a Google search revealed the prospective hire’s track record defending Trump on race and immigration. It ground the interview process to a halt, the strategist said.

“A lot of people who came into this in 2015 and 2016, they knew that there would be a stigma going into this — and it’ll likely last for a very long time,” said a Trump campaign staffer. “Probably for the rest of their lives. I don’t think that’s lost on anyone.”

(Emphasis mine)

No sympathy from me.

You lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

Initial Jobless Claims Up

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Initial unemployment claims rose by 53,000 to 898,000 last week. 

Some recovery, huh?

The much-touted recovery is increasingly looking like a dead cat bounce:

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level since late August, with fresh layoffs adding to other signs the economic recovery is losing steam as the coronavirus pandemic continues.

Claims increased to 898,000 last week, holding well above the pre-pandemic high point of 695,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. After declining from a peak of near 7 million in March, weekly claims have clocked in between 800,000 and 900,000 for more than a month as companies readjust their head counts.

The economy more broadly is flashing signs of slowdown. Monthly job gains have cooled recently, as has growth in consumer spending and factory output.

“The jobless claims continued to reflect very difficult labor market conditions,” said Kathy Bostjancic, an economist at Oxford Economics. “It’s representative of still uncertain and challenging economic conditions at large.”


The number of people collecting unemployment benefits through regular state programs, which cover most workers, fell to about 10 million in the week ended Oct. 3 from 11.2 million the previous week, according to the Labor Department. So-called continuing claims declined throughout the summer, indicating employers continued to hire workers.
However, some of the recent declines in continuing claims represent individuals who have exhausted the maximum duration of payments available through regular state programs, and are now collecting money through a federal program that provides an extra 13 weeks of benefits. About 2.8 million people were receiving aid through this extended-benefits program in the week ended Sept. 26—the largest number since the program began this spring, Labor Department data show.

………

This suggests many Americans are experiencing long spells of joblessness and relying on unemployment insurance to keep paying bills. The extended-benefits program is set to expire at the end of this year without additional federal stimulus. ………

………

Weekly figures can be volatile, but the four-week moving average for claims rose as well, to 866,250, a sign more workers are losing their jobs.

“We’ve seen a number of large firms report layoffs, some of it because the pace of recovery is slower than maybe they had hoped for,” Ms. Bostjancic said.

A Wall Street Journal survey found more than half of business and academic economists polled this month said they didn’t expect the labor market to regain all the jobs from the pandemic until 2023 or later. That is a slower timeline than economists predicted six months ago.

There will be no V-shaped recovery.

Being Evil

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Google congractors are being forced to signed non-disclosure agreements that forbid them from reporting wrong doing or writing novels about Silicon Valley:

Google contract employees are alleging the company’s confidentiality agreements prevent them from a range of legal rights from whistleblowing to telling their parents how much they make, according to a recent court filing.

A California appeals court recently discussed a lawsuit accusing Alphabet‘s Google and one of its staffing firms, Adecco, of violating a number of California labor laws, including free speech, by requiring workers to sign extensive confidentiality agreements.

The contractors state they can’t talk about their wages, working conditions or colleagues, among other things, according to the court filing. 

“As a practical matter, plaintiffs argue, they are forbidden even to write a novel about working in Silicon Valley or to reassure their parents they are making enough money to pay their bills, matters untethered to any legitimate need for confidentiality,” the filing states.

………

According to the lawsuit filing, contractors said the rules prevent them from “disclosing violations of state and federal law, either within Google to their managers or outside Google to private attorneys or government officials.”

It also stated they can’t talk about the skills they obtained at Google if they’re looking for a job at a competitor, and can’t recommend colleagues who might be receptive to a rival job offer.

Plaintiffs also allege Adecco has an illegal policy prohibiting temporary employees placed at Google from working directly for Google without Adecco’s permission, the filing states. They also allege policies illegally prevented them from speaking out about failures to pay overtime work hours. 

“The defendant argued they communicate with government agencies regarding violations of law however, plaintiffs allege these clauses are meaningless and contrary to Google’s policies and practices of enforcement, which threaten employees for disclosing any information at all,” the filings read.

In the filing, dated Sept. 21, the appeals court reversed a lower court decision and said that plaintiffs could go forward with the case.

This is not a surprise. We already know that the biggest names in Silicon Valley including Google, colluded to depress wages of their employees.