Economics Update

We’re All Red States Now
(Philly Fed Index, Red is Contraction)

The revised numbers for the first quarter GDP are out now, and it’s an upward revision for once, from a fall of 6.1% to a fall of only 5.7%.

Of course, -5.7% is still pretty ugly, and the fact that the ATA Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.2% in April, and that the Philly Fed State index is not showing expansion in any states, seems to indicate to me that we are still talking about a change in the 2nd derivative, i.e. not getting worst faster, than a rebound.

Still, there was still some good news, with the Consumer Sentiment Index reaching an 8 month high, 68.7, and Japan’s factory output unexpectedly rose last month.

Still, with Euro zone inflation hitting 0% this month, the specter of deflation is very real.

Meanwhile, the less concern about the economy has pushed the dollar down, while oil price increases have pushed the Canadian dollar up by 9.6% in May.

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