Month: November 2016

Linkage

Have Monty Python’s silly olympics:

The Human Cost of the Wild Blue Yonder Crowd

If you look at activities in places like Afghanistan and Iraq, the overwhelming majority of the missions could be accomplished by low cost low performance Turboprop aircraft, and the reduced logistical tail would have eliminated many of the casualties from the huge number of convoys that fast jets required:

The U.S. Air Force has been continuously at war for more than 25 years. From the opening minutes of Desert Storm to the present, there has not been a time when the Air Force was not flying combat missions in support of national security objectives, often simultaneously in widely separated locations. The vast majority of that burden has been borne by the fighter/attack force, which has been continuously employed for over two decades without a break. The effectiveness of that force and its versatility remain undisputed. Yet these operations have not been without their challenges, particularly of the logistical sort. Combat operations in the 1990s were easy to support logistically, flown from NATO, Saudi, and Kuwaiti airbases under permissive conditions. But from the early days of Enduring Freedom when A-10s moved into Afghanistan, the logistical burden of supporting our legacy fighters jumped precipitously because the supply routes into Iraq and Afghanistan were never free from hostile threat. The high fuel consumption of legacy fighters necessitated a very intensive logistical effort conducted at significant cost in blood and treasure.

Today in Syria and northern Iraq, the Air Force avoids this problem by flying from distant bases, a concept of operations that adds excessive flying hours to its aging jets at exorbitant cost. If there was no alternative to fast jets, this would largely be an unavoidable burden. But modern turboprop-powered light attack aircraft offer a capable, viable alternative for providing air support in irregular conflicts. Light attack aircraft, operating in place of some legacy fighter/attack aircraft in current or future irregular conflicts, offer an opportunity to greatly reduce the fuel burden imposed by air operations, offset the high cost of employing airpower, and expand our definition of “global reach.” Had the Air Force done this a decade ago, we might also have reduced the number of Purple Hearts awarded to servicemen and their families.

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Combat operations drive high fuel consumption. In 2006, as Central Command argued for a surge in Iraq, the majority of the U.S. military’s fuel use (58 percent) was jet fuel, dwarfing the next largest category (marine diesel) at 13 percent. In 2008, total fuel deliveries to Iraq and Afghanistan exceeded 90 million gallons per month — 20 percent of the entire Defense Department consumption. Because of the poor in-ground petroleum transport infrastructure in Iraq and especially in Afghanistan, the heavy use of fuel in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom can be directly tied to casualties incurred by ground operations required to get the fuel to U.S. bases, particularly airbases. Overall, roughly half of the total tonnage hauled overland was fuel, with the Army bearing the lion’s share of the ground transportation burden for all of the services. Air Force airpower supported the Army’s wider campaign, but the Army itself moved and protected the fuel needed to make that happen.

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The same document also quotes the British Ministry of Defence in assessing that between 2001 and 2010 a whopping 39 percent of the total killed in action of U.K. uniformed personnel and contractors (over 190) was related to resupply efforts.

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The direct link between fuel and casualties is not news. However, the impact of high fuel consumption by Air Force fighter/attack aircraft remains poorly understood and rarely discussed. If there were no alternative to the current jet fleet, the discussion would be moot. But for the kind of challenges faced in Iraq, Syria, Africa, the Philippines, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, there is a viable alternative: a turboprop-powered light attack aircraft. Air Combat Command has a designation for its proposed light attack aircraft: the OA-X. Among its other capabilities, the fuel consumption of OA-X is known to be a fraction of the consumption of fast jets. [A note here, technically, not all of the aircraft here are turboprops, the turbofan powered Textron Scorpion gives similar advantages.]

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OA-X can be operated from austere airstrips, providing true tanker independence and the ability to operate effectively with substantially less fuel support than legacy fighters. The PT6A engine is extremely resistant to foreign object damage, always possible on unimproved strips. The fuel burned in an hour by a cruising OA-X will be burned by an F-15E in eight minutes of ground taxi. In March 2010, the AT-6B and T-6C flew 24 sorties in 2010’S Joint Force Experiment (JEFX)  at Nellis Air Force Base. In total, the two aircraft flew 46 flight hours and burned 15,640 pounds of fuel, averaging 340 pounds per hour. That’s around the amount that it takes to fuel a two-tank F-15E to half capacity. On a per-hour basis, OA-X will use between 3 to 5 percent the fuel of an F-15E and 6 to 10 percent of an F-16C. A single 5,000-gallon fuel truck, sufficient to top off an F-15E for a two-hour sortie, will supply OA-X for over 90 hours of flight.

The US Air Force will not do this unless it is forced to, because tactical air is dominated by white scarf guys on both the bomber and the fighter sides of the coin, and the idea of aircraft being selected through this sort of holistic process is an anathema to them.

More Professional Class Arrogance

It is now becoming clear that Clinton’s ground game — the watchword for defenders of her alleged competence — was actually under-resourced and poorly executed. Like so much else in this election, her field strategy was hostage to the colossal arrogance and consequent incompetence of the liberal establishment.

At the heart of the failure was the notion of the “new emerging majority.” According to this argument — pushed by, among others, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira — women, Latinos, blacks, and skilled professionals who support the Democrats were becoming the demographic majority. Thus the traditional white working-class base of the Democratic Party could be sidelined.

Back in July Chuck Schumer summed it up: “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

From this theory and strategy flowed a deeply flawed set of tactics, and a badly fumbled get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort.

A labor organizer in Ohio, who wished to remain anonymous, reports that Clinton’s early GOTV effort there focused on Republicans in the mistaken belief a significant number of them could be peeled away. This play largely failed. And it also involved serious opportunity costs: traditional Democratic constituencies like African Americans and the white working class were neglected, and Clinton ended up badly under-performing Obama among both groups, especially in the Rust Belt.

Only in the last two weeks, according to this labor source, did the Democratic Party outreach effort really switch back to traditional Democratic voters. By then, it was too late. Due to lack of preparation, the voter lists guiding the effort had not been updated. Because poorer voters tend to relocate more frequently than home-owning suburbanites, many addresses were wrong. And for lack of more frequent contact the campaign was often unsure about the voters’ current political attitudes.

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The Clinton campaign’s assumption seems to have been that actual people living on the ground in actual places knew less about the population around them than did the data-savvy professionals at campaign headquarters in Brooklyn.

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The computer-obsessed Clinton campaign — having lost touch with people but not big data — seems to have inadvertently turned out Trump voters!

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A point for the Left in all this: the DNC’s ideas are not only bad because they don’t advocate the social-democratic redistribution we would like to see — they are also bad because they don’t work at a purely technical level.

Their arrogance and contempt for the working class produced a flawed political theory, which in turn produced a bad strategy, which in turn produced a tactically inept ground game.

Too busy congratulating themselves and concurring with each other, the Clintonites couldn’t even get the rudiments of the campaign correct.

The larger point here is that smug self-satisfied professionals are neither the basis for governing electorate nor are they a basis for a campaign.

This was shown by the debacles in 1994, 2004, 2010, 2104, and 2016.

It is only when the Republicans step on their own dicks (impeachment, Iraq, financial crisis, Mitt Rmoney) that this strategy, and this class, manages to win elections.

We Are Completely F%$#ed

And not in a good way. First, the North Pole is 36° F (20° C) degrees above normal:

Political people in the United States are watching the chaos in Washington in the moment. But some people in the science community are watching the chaos somewhere else — the Arctic.

It’s polar night there now — the sun isn’t rising in much of the Arctic. That’s when the Arctic is supposed to get super-cold, when the sea ice that covers the vast Arctic Ocean is supposed to grow and thicken.

But in fall of 2016 — which has been a zany year for the region, with multiple records set for low levels of monthly sea ice — something is totally off. The Arctic is super-hot, even as a vast area of cold polar air has been displaced over Siberia.

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Twitter’s expert Arctic watchers also are stunned. Zack Labe, a PhD student at the University of California at Irvine who studies the Arctic, tweeted out an image on Wednesday from the Danish Meteorological Institute showing Arctic temperatures about 20 degrees Celsius higher than normal above 80 degrees North Latitude.

Also, we now have indications that Antarctica’s Southern Ocean may no longer be able to absorb excess CO2, which means that levels of greenhouse gasses make increase even more rapidly:

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Already, initial data from an array of ocean floats suggest that upwelling waters could be limiting how much CO2 the Southern Ocean absorbs each year. This raises new questions about how effective these waters will be as a brake on global warming in decades to come.

“The Southern Ocean is doing us a big climate favour at the moment, but it’s not necessarily the case that it will continue doing so in the future,” says Michael Meredith, an oceanographer with the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK. Meredith is heading a series of expeditions over the next five years to help document the uptake of heat and carbon. “It really is the key place for studying these things.”

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Hints of something similar have been seen before. In 2007, a team led by Corinne Le Quéré, now director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Norwich, UK, published a study in Science indicating that the rate of carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean decreased between 1981 and 2004. The authors blamed the changes on the winds that encircle the Antarctic continent. The speed of those winds had increased during that time, probably as a result of the hole in the stratospheric ozone layer over Antarctica and possibly because of global warming. Stronger winds are better able to pull up deep, ancient water, which releases CO2 when it reaches the surface. That would have caused a net weakening of the carbon sink.

This is real end or the world stuff, and in a few weeks, we will have a global warming denier in chief.

Lovely.

Knowing is Worse than Not Knowing

Remember when I said that I would not be speculating on Trump cabinet appointments because it just made thing worse and drove me crazy?

I may have been excessively optimistic.

Trump has announced that he will be nominating a racist dirtbag for US Attorney General (Jeff Sessions), a right wing lunatic who was fired as head of the DIA for his incompetence and an abusive management style as National Security Adviser (Michael Flynn), and a Teabagger who is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Koch brothers as  as C.I.A. Director (Mike Pompeo).

Charlie Pierce has the details.

Of particular note here is that this appears to be putting the stake through the heart of whatever faint hope there was that Trump would not buy into the mindlessly bellicose national security consensus.

We are in for more, and possibly stupider, wars during the Trump Administration.

Our Narcissistic Press

Donald Trump is an iconoclast who blithely ignores the norms of civil society.

It appears that the only time that the press cares about this is when he President elect ditches the 4th estate for a steak dinner:

On Tuesday night, Donald Trump committed a huge no-no. This was nothing trivial like empowering white hate groups or waging public and legal vendettas against his enemies—he’s been doing those things all along. For the first time since winning the presidency last week, he sneaked away from the pool of reporters tasked with knowing his whereabouts all day every day to dine at a fancy Manhattan steak house.

This may sound like a minor infraction, but it is actually a matter of incredible importance, as many journalists have explained in the hours since.

Trump had traduced yet another vital norm, except instead of simply noting an objection to the violation, and assuming the importance of the broken protocol, reporters have been at pains to defend it. ………

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When Trump announced that white nationalist publisher Steve Bannon would be his chief strategist next year, the political media wasn’t entirely sure how to process it. Early reports depicted Bannon, the executive chairman of the racist agitprop website Breitbart, not as a hero figure to white supremacists and neo-Nazis but as a “combative” strategist or a “conservative firebrand.”

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For most readers here, and probably for most Americans, it’s self-evident why the “no white supremacists in the White House” norm should stand. People generally grasp that racism is a horrifying value, even if they’re unfamiliar with the kind of violence and subjugation that occurred when white supremacists controlled government in the past.

The author, Brian Beutler, goes on to exhort that the press observe when norms are being violated and explaining why this is a bad thing.

He’s an optimist, and I am a pessimist, so I see it as efidence of an insular and cynical press which is only concerned about the violation of norms when it’s their ox that is gored.

We saw this in 2009 when Republicans decided to filibuster everything coming down the pipe in the Senate, and within a few weeks, the reporting was that 60 votes were required for passage.

We also saw this with torture, signing statements, and a whole range of other mischief.

I do not expect this to change, particularly given increasingly corporate nature of the major news outlets and the decades of working the refs by Republican operatives.

I expect to see the press swooning over some staged commander codpiece moment engineered by Trump’s at some point in the next 18 months.

It’s the sort of bullsh%$ that the press eats up: It’s easy writing for the reporter, and click bait for the publisher.

HAMP: the Gift That Keeps on Giving


Foreclosure Rates


Swing states

There appears to be an interesting correlation between rates of foreclosure and states where Hillary Clinton underperformed.

This is not a surprise. Tim Geithner admitted that all of the foreclosure aid programs were about helping the banks by screwing the ordinary people. as I’ve occasionally noted over the years:

I don’t expect anyone to really come up with the perfect explanation for why Clinton lost and Trump won the presidential election. But I do spend some time looking at these maps:

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I was involved, to a small degree, with homeowners, activists and lawmakers that tried to deal with the issues and problems in the foreclosure crisis, some of which is documented in David Dayen’s excellent new book, “Chain of Title“. As Dayen documents, the government response to the issues was ultimately terribly unsatisfying and at best, had the effect of sweeping the issue under the carpet.

The consequences of the government’s response played out in this presidential election.

Clinton was aware of the problems caused by the wave of foreclosures: last fall the NY Times reported that the campaign was frustrated that the crisis had displaced so many homeowners that their database of voters was disrupted. Perhaps this is why the campaign’s get out the vote efforts in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and other states were much less effective than the campaign had hoped for. Some reports were that up to [25%] of the voters the campaign contacted were actually Republicans or potential Trump voters. In fairness, Clinton was probably concerned about the economic plight of affected homeowners and communities than she was about the technological issues it caused, but that was hardly the dominant campaign message.

How much of an impact would a compassionate outreach have had on these neighborhoods? It’s also worth remembering that the people hit by the foreclosure crisis were generally middle class – prior to the crisis they owned homes, held jobs, were members of the community. Where were they by the time the 2016 election came around?

Certainly, it’s a complicated issue and made more complicated by the fact that the Obama Administration didn’t cover themselves in accolades during the mess.………

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Of course, it’s easy to second guess the campaign now. I, and many others, spend hours over several years trying to get the Obama Administration or state governments to improve their response to the foreclosure crisis. By 2016, many of the people I worked with back in 2011 to 2013 on housing issues were exhausted and frustrated. I can only imagine how the people living with the foreclosure crisis must have felt.

Still, a few thousand votes in three key states would have been enough to change the outcome of the election. And when you compare these maps, it’s hard not to see the lost opportunities.

In choosing between the banksters and their victims, Obama went with the banksters, and Hillary Clinton, with her close ties to Wall Street, was in a situation where the optics were particularly indefensible.

Headline of the Day

Elite, White Feminism Gave Us Trump: It Needs to Die

The thesis is that priviliged identity politics ignores the very real needs of ordinary folks who don’t get 6 figure payments for speeches from the Vampire Squid.

Identity politics and class politics tends to be mutually exclusive, as Jesse Jackson once said when asked how he might get white steelworker votes, “By making him aware he has more in common with the black steel workers by being a worker, than with the boss by being white.”

The Upside of the Measles Outbreak in California

It appears that parents are now looking for pediatricians who refuse antivaxxers as patients, because they are affraid of their wee bairns picking up something in the waiting room from unvaccinated kids:

Pediatricians around the country, faced with persistent opposition to childhood vaccinations, are increasingly grappling with the difficult decision of whether to dismiss those families from their practices to protect their other patients.

Doctors say they are more willing to take this last-resort step because the anti-vaccine movement in recent years has contributed to a resurgence of preventable childhood diseases such as measles, mumps and whooping cough. Their practices also have been emboldened by families who say they will only choose physicians who require other families to vaccinate.

Here’s hoping this this becomes far more wide spread.

The science is bad, and they are putting other people’s lives at risk.

How about a nice cup of shut the F%$# Up, Johnnie?

One of the truisms of the DC political scene is that John McCain thinks that he should be President, and that whoever has become President had better listen to him, or he will throw a tantrum and hold his breath until he passes out.*

The press, largely because of McCain’s tradition of giving them booze and palling around with them, seems to think that this is “Mavericky”, but it appears to be an exercise in arrested development to me.

Case in point, the overcooked potato from the state of Arizona is trying to dictate Russia policy:

Sen. John McCain, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, sent his first shot across the bow of President-elect Donald Trump’s national security plans Tuesday, saying that any attempt to “reset” relations with Russia is unacceptable.

“With the U.S. presidential transition underway, Vladi­mir Putin has said in recent days that he wants to improve relations with the United States,” McCain (R-Ariz.) said in a statement released by his office.

It’s really depressing what qualifies as an elder statesman in DC.

*No sh%$. At age 2, the only way that his parents could get him to stop was to put him in an bathtub full of cold water.

Wisdom from Katz’s Deli

For those of you who don’t know, Katz’s Deli is an institution located on Katz’s Delicatessen located at 205 East Houston Street in Manhattan.

Their pastrami is considered to be akin to a religious experience, and the 3rd generation owner gave an interview just chock full of profound wisdom.

  • There’s only one way to eat a hot dog, with mustard and sauerkraut. None of that Chicago dog nonsense: no relish, no pickles, no salad garnish, no ketchup. Well, ketchup is okay—if you’re under six years old. Don’t hate me, Chicago. I was rooting for the Cubs, but you don’t know how to eat a goddamn hot dog. [Katz’s hotdog is also considered to be sublime]
  • Pastrami is meant to be eaten with mustard.
  • Interact with the guys that cut the meat. [May apply in New York City only]
  • When you say white bread, I think of Wonder Bread, which is … I don’t know what it is. But it should be illegal.
  • If we’re calling a spade a spade, a reuben is not a real sandwich. No true Jewish deli would have had cheese [with meat], ever. So how could you make a reuben without cheese? The short answer is, you can’t. It’s a fictional sandwich.  
  • My goal is to make the world’s second best latke; your first should be made by a family member.

I would suggest reading the rest. It is a hoot.

Good Riddance

Mary Jo White has resigned as head of the SEC.

Normally, when a Democrat resigns from a regulatory leadership post and is replaced by a Republican, it is an unalloyed tragedy, but in the case of the the soon to be former SEC Chair, who after a mildly promising start, has proved to be a complete tool for the banksters. (The conflicts of interest with her husband’s law firm working for Wall Street didn’t help.)

Don’t let the door hit your butt on the way out, you Wall Street stooge.

We’ve Just Seen a Real World Consequence of Trump’s Policy Shift

The day after Putin and Trump have a conversation about, “Regulating conflict,” the Russians and the Syrians began a major new offensive in Syria:

Pro-Assad forces have intensified attacks on Syrian rebels, launching a fierce aerial bombardment of besieged eastern Aleppo and missile strikes from a Russian aircraft carrier stationed off the coast, the day after Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone.

The US president-elect and Russian president discussed “regulating the conflict in Syria” and the need to combat “international terrorism and extremism”, Putin’s office said in a statement.

This is a message from both Trump and Putin that the attempts to Persian Gulf potentiates and tje US state security apparatus to engineer regime change that this Great Game sh%$ needs to end.

I am sick to death of hair brained regime change schemes.

I don’t know why this is happening, whether it’s some sort of man-crush of Trump on Putin, or if it’s that he has looked at Syria and decided that it is a losing proposition, but in either case,  this is a positive development for everyone but the foreign Jihadists in Syria.

Do You Want some Cheese With That Whine?

PNAC co-founder, and charter member of the frothing for more war crowd, vehemently condemned Donald Trump because he was not sufficiently warlike during the campaign.

Now that Trump has “won” the “election”, he offered his services as a foreign policy expert.

The Trump transition team told him to go Cheney himself:

A former George W. Bush official warned Republicans hopeful of earning a federal appointment from President-elect Trump Tuesday to “stay away” from his “angry” and “arrogant” team.

Eliot Cohen, a senior counselor for the Bush State Department from 2007 to 2009, had counseled conservatives offered positions in the Trump administration following the election to “say yes,” despite recognizing potential pitfalls, in an open-letter published in The American Interest. But on Tuesday, Cohen changed his tune, posting on social media that an interaction between him and Trump’s staff had made him change his mind.

“After exchange w Trump transition team, changed my recommendation: stay away,” he tweeted Monday morning. “They’re angry, arrogant, screaming “you LOST!” Will be ugly.”

I would note that in his “open letter,” he stated that Trump was worse than Clinton, because, I guess, Trump has expressed occasional reticence in wasting American treasure and blood on foreign soil.

Now that Trump has won, they are all screaming, “We’ve gotta protect our phony baloney jobs!”

I am experiencing near toxic levels of schadenfreude right now, but it feels good.

These guys have been wrong about everything, particularly in their vociferous support of overthrowing Saddam Hussein, and in a sane world, they would already have been run out of town on a rail years go.

Nah Gah Nah Do It

There has been a lot of speculation about who Donald Trump will appoint to his cabinet.

At this point, all that has been confirmed is that the obscure tropical disease known as Reince Priebus will be his chief of staff and that racist antisemitic nutbag Steve Bannon has been his chief strategist and Senior Counselor.

You will note that neither of these positions require the advice and consent of the Senate.

I’m not commenting on any appointments until they are officially announced, not out of any respect for the Trump transition team, but rather out a concern for my own sanity.

All this speculation is driving me batsh%$.

If You Want to Observe the Wonders of the Unfettered Free Market, fly Allegiant Air

But if you would rather live, perhaps you might want to choose some other airline:

Lisa Cozzolino started to panic as Allegiant Air Flight 844 circled over Pinellas County, burning off fuel for an emergency landing. “All the bad things I’ve done in my life,” she said to her sister, “and now I’m going to die.”

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All major airlines break down once in awhile. But none of them break down in midair more often than Allegiant.

A Tampa Bay Times investigation — which included a first-of-its kind analysis of federal aviation records — has found that the budget carrier’s planes are four times as likely to fail during flight as those operated by other major U.S. airlines.

In 2015, Allegiant jets were forced to make unexpected landings at least 77 times for serious mechanical failures.

………

None of the 77 incidents prompted enforcement action from the Federal Aviation Administration, which doesn’t compare airline breakdown records to look for warning signs.

To create such a comparison, Times reporters built a database of more than 65,000 records from the FAA.

………

When the Times first reached out to Allegiant officials for this story, they declined to speak with reporters. Then, after the newspaper presented them with its findings, they asked for a meeting. During five hours of interviews at the company’s Las Vegas headquarters and training center, they acknowledged their planes break down too often and said the airline is changing the way it operates.

………

“Allegiant is probably going to have an accident,” said former FAA inspector Richard Wyeroski, who became a whistleblower in 2002. “That airline should basically be grounded and re-evaluated for their certificate.”

………

For this story, the Times used the Freedom of Information Act to obtain mechanical interruption summary reports for the 11 largest airlines in the United States. Then reporters connected the reports with records of unexpected landings from the U.S. Department of Transportation and FlightAware, a company that collects aviation data.

The result is the best available picture of how often mechanical problems cause midair emergencies at major airlines.

BTW, kudos to the Tampa Bay Times for a very good shoe leather reporting:

How we did the story: To compare the 11 major U.S. passenger airlines, the Tampa Bay Times set out to build the most comprehensive database of in-flight mechanical breakdowns ever created. A team of journalists used the Freedom of Information Act to obtain records of mechanical problems known as “mechanical summary interruption reports” from the Federal Aviation Administration. Then they connected those records with data from the U.S. Department of Transportation and the aviation tracking company FlightAware. Working through 65,000 records, they identified midair incidents caused by mechanical breakdowns by matching tail numbers, flight numbers, origin and destination and date fields. In cases where those details didn’t match up, the incidents were discounted. The database was built by Times staff writers Neil Bedi, Anthony Cormier, Carolyn Edds, Connie Humburg, Michael LaForgia, Nathaniel Lash, William R. Levesque, Eli Murray, Adam Playford and Eli Zhang.

This is old school journalism.

Take a look at public records, look for patterns, and don’t waste your time sucking up to anonymous  sources with dubious agendas.