The Atlanta Fed’s real time estimate of GDP just came out, and while there are plenty of caveats, they are estimating a decline in GDP of -52.8%.
Even the more mainstream estimates shown in the figure are end of the world stuff, but their estimate is a Stay Puft Marshmallow Man moment:
Ok, this is now getting a little scary:
The real time GDP running estimate of US economic activity is half of what it was 3 months ago. As of June 1, the Atlanta Fed is nowcasting that economic activity in the United States, as measured in GDP, is minus 52.8%.
Given the extent of the collapse in demand that has accompanied quarantines and shelter-in-place orders, this is not a surprise. Still, when you see the number in print, it still has the capacity to shock.
Yeah, it has the capacity to shock.