Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Economics Update

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H/t the Big Picture

It’s jobless Thursday, and the new numbers suck wet farts from dead pigeons, specifically, they are up 12% over the past 2 weeks,to 496,000, up 22,000, and well over the consensus estimate 460,000.

Ouch.

Meanwhile, both the The 4-week moving average and the continuing claims rose by 6K, to 473,750 and 4.617 million.

Note however, that he Snowpocalypse may have had something to do with this.

Note also that that the durable goods orders number sucked too, it was up only because of aircraft orders, and as the picture on the right shows, there really is no increase at all once you take out spending on military items going back a very long time.

Meanwhile, in Japan, their consumer prices fell by 1.3% year over year, which is triggering a shouting match between the Finance Ministry, who want QE, and the Bank of Japan, who are still inflation hawks.

Meanwhile in currency, the dollar rose, largely on concerns about Greece and Euro Zone.

And yes, I know, I need to post something about the Greek problem, but it’s sprawling, and I’m still trying to make a synthesis.

In energy, the crappy jobs numbers drove oil down.

About the Killer Whale Death


That’s a seal in its mouth

It is clearly a tragedy that a SeaWorld trainer was killed by an Orca.

This is a reminder that when you see someone working with a large predator, whether it is Sigfried and Roy and their tigers, or if it’s SeaWorld’s killer whales, these are still wild animals, and there is danger whenever you interact with a large predator.

The whale, Tilikum, after all, weighs over 6 tons.

One report (at link) has the whale grabbing the trainer, Dawn Brancheau, by pony tail, and the initial coroner’s report lists drowning as the primary cause of death.

That being said, all cetaceans are highly intelligent, social creatures, and it is possible that the death was as a result of a purely social interaction that it did not realize was harmful.

He could simply have been playing the game with a…

…wait for it…

…wait for it…

…wait for it…

…wait for it…

Chum

I am a very bad person.

What a Bitch

I am reverring to Kent Conrad (DINO-ND) who is saying that he’ll kill any attempt to use reconciliation to pass a fix to Senate’s awful healthcare reform bill unless the House passes that bill first:

The Senate Democrats’ top budget guy told reporters today that the Senate can’t pass a reconciliation package tweaking a comprehensive health care bill unless the House passes the Senate bill first. And if the House won’t do that, he says health care reform is “dead.”

“The only way this works is for the House to pass the Senate bill and then, depending on what the package is, the reconciliation provision that moves first through the House and then comes here,” said Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) outside the upper chamber this morning. “That’s the only way that works.”

I guess that someone hurt his feelings.

Here is a message to almost everyone in the White House and Congress:
<Rant>

Get the F%$# Over Yourself!!!

</Rant>

Unbelievably F%$#ing Stupid

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I don’t intend to ban Italian IP numbers
… … … Yet

An Italian court has convicted 3 Google executives on criminal privacy violations because someone posted a nasty video to Google Video:

A judge in Milan, Italy, on Wednesday convicted three Google executives — chief legal officer David Drummond, global privacy counsel Peter Fleischer and former CFO George Reyes — of violating Italy’s privacy laws, a decision that Google is characterizing as an attack on Internet freedom.

The charges stem from a video that was uploaded to YouTube in Italy, back in September 2006, that depicts four high school boys in a classroom in Turin, Italy, taunting another boy with a mental disability.

Google received two requests to remove the video in early November, one from a user and one from the Italian Interior Ministry, and did so within 24 hours.

Nonetheless, Francesco Cajani, a prosecutor in Milan, filed suit against four Google employees for violating Italian privacy laws. All four were found not guilty of criminal defamation. The fourth, Arvind Desikan, formerly the head of Google Video in London, was acquitted of the privacy violation charges, unlike Drummond, Fleischer, and Reyes.

If I was running a service with user generated content, I would start denying access to Italian IPs.

The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if this might have been driven in some manner or another by Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi, who has control of something like 80% of the broadcast media in Italy, and might be unhappy with the competition for ad revenue and news.

Another Day, Another Obama Administration Capitulation

Yep, this time it’s the CFPA:

The Obama administration is no longer insisting on the creation of a stand-alone consumer protection agency as a central element of the plan to remake regulation of the financial system.

In hopes of quick congressional approval of a reform bill, White House officials are opening the door to compromise with lawmakers concerned about creating a new bureaucracy, according to congressional and some administration sources.

President Obama’s economic team is now open to housing the consumer regulator inside another agency, such as the Treasury Department, though they still prefer a stand-alone agency. In either case, they are insisting on a regulator with political autonomy and real teeth so it can effectively enforce rules designed to protect consumers of mortgages, credit cards and other financial products.

(emphasis mine)

Let’s be clear on this: No one has any concern about a new bureaucracy. The banks want impunity to screw consumers, and members of Congress who want campaign donations from Wall Street, and White House officials completely captured by the finance industry, **cough** Geithner and Summers **cough**, are more than willing to do this.

If the CFPA is not independent, which means that they have the ability to craft their own budget, they will be subject to the tender mercies of someone like Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner or Hank “Why the f%$# isn’t he in Jail” Paulson, and so will be largely ineffective.

Haiti Will Shortly Free Last Two American Kidnappers Missionaries

This is not an exoneration. It’s an acknowledgment that the courts in Haiti are a shambles, and that they are getting a lot of pressure from the US.

It’s clear from the back story that something very wrong was going on:

A judge in Haiti has said the last two Christian US missionaries being held on suspicion of abducting children after the earthquake may be freed in days.

Bernard Sainvil told Reuters the case, which involves 33 children, should be closed this week because there were no criminal grounds to pursue it.

A lawyer for the two said he thought they would be freed by Thursday.

Eight fellow missionaries were released last week but their leader and her assistant were kept in custody.

The other 8 are claiming that they had been scammed by Silsby and Coulter, and I am inclined to believe that something more than inattention to the finer points of Haitian immigration law is involved.

Snowpocalypse Delayed

We got the lightest of dustings last night, which is good, because I had an interview this morning, for a level tech writer position, which ain’t engineering but it beats sitting on my butt collecting unemployment.

In any case, the NWS is predicting snow tonight, 2-4 inches in total:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1214 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

MDZ005>007-011-260115-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.100225T2300Z-100226T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.100225T1714Z-100226T1700Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WESTMINSTER…BALTIMORE
1214 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE…SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING…ESPECIALLY ACROSS BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES.
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING…SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES…HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TODAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S FRIDAY.

* WINDS…NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
55 MPH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

SEC Adds Restrictions to Short Sales

It’s pretty weak tea compared to the uptick rule, but it’s better than nothing:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission curbed some bearish stock bets, ending a yearlong debate between individual investors and Wall Street with a solution that fails to satisfy anyone.

SEC commissioners voted 3-2 today to restrict short sales of a company’s stock once it falls 10 percent from the previous day’s closing price. When the 10 percent threshold is triggered, traders could only execute short sales for the stock at a price above the market’s best bid. The curb would be in place through the following day.

General Electric Co., Charles Schwab Corp. and more than 5,600 people who signed a petition sent to the SEC wanted a short-selling restriction that was always in effect, similar to the so-called uptick rule the agency abolished in 2007. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and hedge funds Citadel Investment Group LLC and D.E. Shaw & Co. lobbied against a limit.

You only need to know who was for it, and who was against it, and go against the Vampire Squid.

Short selling has a role, but there needs to be a balance between what ever “price discovery” function it has, and the ability that it gives for people to create wild swings in prices for speculation.

More Bad News For the Gold Bugs

China is sending signals that they will not be buying gold that the IMF is selling:

Contrary to much speculation China may not buy the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) remaining 191.3 tons of gold which is up for sale as it does not want to upset the market, a top industry official told China Daily yesterday.

“It is not feasible for China to buy the IMF bullion, as any purchase or even intent to do so would trigger market speculation and volatility,” said the official from the China Gold Association, on condition of anonymity.

I still think that gold is not a place to be, because everyone is talking about how it is the place to be, which reminds me of dotcoms in 1999 and housing in 2006.

Economics Update

Well, Ben Bernanke went before Congress, and said that there needs to be an extended period of low rates to ensure that the recovery.

Of course, in terms of real estate, the question is whether or not the Fed continues its policies to keep mortgage rates low, and considering the fact that new home sales fell to the lowest level on record in January, and mortgage applications fell this week, with the purchase index hitting its lowest level since 1997, housing is still on life support.

For that matter, so is commercial real estate, with the architecture billings index falling in January.

In any case, Bernanke’s talk about continued low rates drove the dollar down, which in turn drove oil up.

Mass Arrest of Senior Turkish Military Figures Over Coup Plot

The military coup as an instrument of politics has been a fixture in Turkey, with coups in 1960, 1971, and 1980, as well as a de facto coup in 1997.

In any case, about 40 people were arrested:

Police in Turkey today detained more than 40 high-ranking military commanders for allegedly plotting to overthrow the Islamic-rooted government.

The arrests highlighted the ongoing struggle between the secular establishment and the government and leaves question marks over the traditional role of the military as the pillar of the secular state.

The detention of several senior military officers – including members of the elite class known as Pashas, a title of respect harking back to Ottoman times – underlines that such officials are no longer untouchable.

What is interesting is that this appears to be driven by the judiciary, specifically the prosecutor’s office, and not from Turkish PM Recep Erdogan, whose very public religiousity has been viewed with no small amount of distrust by the military, which sees itself as the defender of Attaturk’s secular initiatives.

On the other hand, this:

In total prosecutors have charged more than 400 people, including soldiers, academics, journalists and politicians. No one has yet been convicted.

Is concerning.

I can see the military and politicians colluding on a coup, but the academics and journalists makes me wonder if this might not just be an attempt by Erdogan to secure his political power.

Make it Stop!!!! Please!!! Make it Stop!!!

More snow….Aieeeee!!!!

Statement as of 6:14 PM EST on February 24, 2010

… Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 10 PM this
evening to 11 am EST Thursday…
… Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Thursday evening
through Friday morning…

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 10 PM this
evening to 11 am EST Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch remains in
effect from Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* Precipitation type… snow.

* Accumulations… 1 to 3 inches through Thursday morning.
Potential for snow accumulations of 5 or more inches from
Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* Timing… a mix of rain and snow will develop during the mid-
evening hours. Precipitation will become all snow late this evening
and will continue through early Thursday morning. After a break
in snowfall Thursday afternoon… snow is expected to return
Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* Temperatures… will be above freezing until after midnight.
Lows near 30 overnight. Highs in the lower to mid 30s
Thursday. Lows in the mid to upper 20s Thursday night.

* Winds… northwest winds 10 to 15 mph tonight… increasing to
15 to 25 mph Thursday with gusts around 45 mph late Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night.

Precautionary/preparedness actions…

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow will cause
travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited
visibilities… and use caution while driving.