Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Yes, This is About the “War on Terror” Eviscerating Our Civil Rights

One of the worst of the anti-terror laws, adopted under Clinton, not Bush II, is the “material support law,” which makes it a crime to provide “material support” to any organization that is deemed a “terrorist organization” by the President (actually the Secretary of State).

The cases, Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project (08-1498) and Humanitarian Law Project v. Holder, are about what is a legitimate use of the law.

The case here is interesting because it appears that the law is criminalizing purely political speech:

CCR contends that the challenged provisions violate the First Amendment insofar as they criminalize the provision of forms of support such as the distribution of literature, engaging in political advocacy, participating in peace conferences, training in human rights advocacy, and donating cash and humanitarian assistance, even when such support is intended solely to promote the lawful and non-violent activities of a designated organization. Plaintiffs’ principal complaint is that the statute imposes guilt by association by punishing moral innocents not for their own culpable acts, but for the culpable acts of the groups they have supported. The statute does not require any showing of intent to further terrorist or other illegal activity. We also claimed that the statute was unconstitutionally vague, and that the Secretary of State’s power to designate groups was too broad, giving the executive too much discretionary power to label groups as “terrorist” and turn their supporters into outlaws.

As I see it, if a group sees the designation of another group as a “terrorist entity” as in error, the way that the current law is written, or at least enforced, actually publicly advocating for a change in that designation would be offering “material support.”

In this case, the Human Rights Project wants to train the PKK, the Kurdish Workers Party, designated a terrorist group, in, “human rights enforcement and peaceful conflict resolution,” but the material support law forbids this.

So this law is preventing the provision of training in how not to be a terrorist.

As with most of the anti-terror laws out there, it invokes Joseph Heller’s most famous work.

A good description of the oral arguments is here.

Monopolies Are Strangling Our Economy

Click for full size


Graphic Courtesy of the WaPo

In Washington Monthly, Barry C. Lynn and Phillip Longman argue that the increase in jobless recovery and stagnation is an artifact of the increasingly monopolistic marketplace that we encounter:

If any single number captures the state of the American economy over the last decade, it is zero. That was the net gain in jobs between 1999 and 2009—nada, nil, zip. By painful contrast, from the 1940s through the 1990s, recessions came and went, but no decade ended without at least a 20 percent increase in the number of jobs.

…………

But while the mystery of what killed the great American jobs machine has yielded no shortage of debatable answers, one of the more compelling potential explanations has been conspicuously absent from the national conversation: monopolization. The word itself feels anachronistic, a relic from the age of the Rockefellers and Carnegies. But the fact that the term has faded from our daily discourse doesn’t mean the thing itself has vanished—in fact, the opposite is true. In nearly every sector of our economy, far fewer firms control far greater shares of their markets than they did a generation ago.

Indeed, in the years after officials in the Reagan administration radically altered how our government enforces our antimonopoly laws, the American economy underwent a truly revolutionary restructuring. Four great waves of mergers and acquisitions—in the mid-1980s, early ’90s, late ’90s, and between 2003 and 2007—transformed America’s industrial landscape at least as much as globalization. Over the same two decades, meanwhile, the spread of mega-retailers like Wal-Mart and Home Depot and agricultural behemoths like Smithfield and Tyson’s resulted in a more piecemeal approach to consolidation, through the destruction or displacement of countless independent family-owned businesses.

It is now widely accepted among scholars that small businesses are responsible for most of the net job creation in the United States. It is also widely agreed that small businesses tend to be more inventive, producing more patents per employee, for example, than do larger firms. Less well established is what role concentration plays in suppressing new business formation and the expansion of existing businesses, along with the jobs and innovation that go with such growth. Evidence is growing, however, that the radical, wide-ranging consolidation of recent years has reduced job creation at both big and small firms simultaneously. At one extreme, ever more dominant Goliaths increasingly lack any real incentive to create new jobs; after all, many can increase their earnings merely by using their power to charge customers more or pay suppliers less. At the other extreme, the people who run our small enterprises enjoy fewer opportunities than in the past to grow their businesses. The Goliaths of today are so big and so adept at protecting their turf that they leave few niches open to exploit.

One of the points that I have made when I discuss the role of the large monopoly Telcos and how this effects the availability and price of broadband is that when a company gets large enough, it’s more profitable to keep out competitors than it is to improve the quality and efficiency of its process.

If one understands the nature of any corporation, which is that they are short-sighted sociopaths by design, this makes perfect sense: You can spend billions on innovation, or millions on locking out and/or buying up competitors.

Even Sci-Fi author Jerry Pournelle, who describes himself as being somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun, says that for the free market to function, aggressive anti-trust activities are essential. (No link, it was from his “Chaos Manor” column in Byte about 20 years ago)

H/t Kevin Drum.

Yes, This Pretty Much Nails It

In discussions of the White House’s complete capitulation on the public option (to say nothing of their taking single payer off the table), a progressive activist, nails the problem:

But the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, the group that’s behind a letter being circulated among Senate Democrats to push the plan, isn’t giving up. “The White House obviously has a loser mentality — but America rallies around winners,” co-founder Adam Green e-mailed reporters shortly after Gibbs’s remark. “Polls show that in state after state, voters hate the Senate bill and overwhelmingly want a public option, even if passed with zero Republican votes. More than 50 Senate Democrats and 218 House Democrats were willing to vote for the public option before, and the only way to lose in reconciliation is if losers are leading the fight. That’s why Democrats in Congress should ignore the White House and follow those like Chuck Schumer and Robert Menendez, who know that the public option is a political and policy winner.”

(emphasis mine)

I’m not sure why Barack Obama and His Stupid Minions are so eager to play to lose, it could be that they are so risk averse that they are paralyzed with fear, it could be that they are closet Republicans, or it could be that they believe that Republicans can be successfully courted on this.

I hope that it’s not the 3rd option, because if they believe that, it means that the man with his finger on the button to destroy the world is completely delusional.

Geithner Knifes Volker Rule

Surprise, Geithner and his Treasury Department is giving the green light for Congress to gut the Volker rule, and allow federally insured institutions to gamble with our money.

Well, he never like Volker anyway:

The Obama administration lowered expectations Tuesday for the “Volcker rule” to curb risky trading by banks, emphasizing “limits” rather than an outright ban, as Congress shied from the original proposal.

The Treasury Department said in a statement that it supports “mandatory limits” on banks’ proprietary trading, in which they trade for their own accounts. The administration last month had called for an outright ban on such trading.

Seriously, the combination or regulatory capture and cowardice by the Obama administration is beginning to get to me.

Greenspan Calls Meltdown “Greatest Financial Crisis”

Normally, I don’t listen to Alan Greenspan, but when he says the the financial meltdown is worse than the Great Depression, it bears noting:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the U.S. economic recovery was ‘extremely unbalanced,’ driven largely by high earners benefiting from recovering stock markets and large corporations.

Small businesses and the jobless are still suffering from the aftermath of a credit crunch that was ‘by far the greatest financial crisis, globally, ever’ — including the 1930s Great Depression, said Greenspan in an address to a Credit Union National Association conference.

(emphasis mine)

While I have very little confidence in judgment of Andrea Mitchell’s husband, the time that any economist of any note says “worse than the Great Depression,” it’s time to think about why we aren’t fixing this.

It’s Like They are Trying to Demoralize the Democratic Base

Because it looks like they are going to delay the Iraq withdrawal:

The U.S. military has prepared contingency plans to delay the planned withdrawal of all combat forces in Iraq, citing the prospects for political instability and increased violence as Iraqis hold national elections next month.

Under a deadline set by President Obama, all combat forces are slated to withdraw from Iraq by the end of August, and there remains heavy political pressure in Washington and Baghdad to stick to that schedule. But Army Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said Monday that he had briefed officials in Washington in the past week about possible contingency plans.

I understand that there need to be contingency plans, but the fact that this gets leaked to the Washington Posts means that they are looking to see if a delay is politically feasible for them to further extend Operation Useless Dirt 1.*

So in August, 3 months before the election, they are going to push back the withdrawal, and they expect the base to be enthused about working for the Democratic party.

The Obama administration is beginning to make the Carter administration look like Niccolò Machiavelli.

A few more months of this, and I might be ready to vote green.

The equation here is very clear: Military operations are very good for careerist military officers, so you will always have a significant portion of the military arguing for these operations, since it benefits them personally.

You need to ignore them.

*H/t Eric Palmer for this bon mot describing Operation (insert name here).
Not really, pulling the lever for the Greens would have vomiting in the voting booth.
But yes, actually vomiting in the voting booth might be a real possibility.

Economics Update

The lede today is that consumer confidence fell much more than expected, down to 46.0, when the consensus forecast was 55.0, a 10 month low.

Additionally, home prices fell in the 4th quarter, though the housing optimists are noting that the year over year drop is “only” 2½%.

When one considers the fact that the 4th quarter was juiced by tax credits, it’s worse than it looks.

Japan, on the other hand, Japan’s exports grew sharply in the 4th quarter, with a 40.9% year over year, the biggest jump since 1980, largely on increases in exports to China.

Still the dismal consumer confidence numbers put the market in a mind to doubt that there will soon be a robust recovery, which drove oil prices down, and led to a flight to safety which pushed the Yen and the dollar up.

5 Republicans Vote for Cloture on Jobs Bill

The one where Harry Reid stripped out all the tax breaks for special interests that Max Baucus put in to make nice with the terrorists Republicans.

Republicans voting for cloture were Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, George Voinovich, and Christopher “Kit” Bond.

Notably, Ben Nelson, who is nominally a Democrat voted against cloture.

There should be consequences for him. He has a leadership position, and he is voting for cloture.

Instead, Reid and Obama will find some other way to suck up to him.

Quote of the Day

Roger Ehrenberg, looks at a number of financial transactions, including the rather mundane one known as leasing nails what should be the core of any reform of the financial markets:

Both cash-market and derivative instruments should be put to the “business purpose” test. Accounting rule-makers, with support of the SEC, should move towards a “principles-based” system where common sense, and not black-and-white rules around which myriad loopholes can be found, should become the new paradigm. But let’s be clear. The issue isn’t derivatives; it’s all financial transactions whose objective is to deceive or to weaken financial transparency.

(emphasis mine)

He notes that a very old transaction, leasing, has been used for the same purpose for years:

Consider leasing, a transaction that has been popular for over 50 years. As the industry has evolved, transactions such as sale/leasebacks and “asset defeasance” have been used to synthetically borrow money without the obligation being reflected as debt on the balance sheet. The form of the transaction: a lease. The substance of the transaction: a borrowing. The multi-trillion dollar securitization industry has the same motivation: moving assets (and liabilities) off the balance sheet, while economic recourse still exists should asset values and/or debt ratings drop. This is what the market discovered when Citigroup’s multi-billion structured investment vehicles (SIVs) began to fail and the assets and liabilities came back onto its financial statements. What is the proper characterization of a contractually obligated stream of payments? Debt. How should a portfolio of assets and associated liabilities be treated if the risks and rewards of ownership haven’t been completely transferred? As never having left the balance sheet. Yet the accounting profession, with the SEC’s support, has enabled this charade to continue.

The idea of a business purpose rule is a very good one.

If Rahm is Gone, What Does It Mean?

Cenk Uygur looks at Dana Millbank’s recent big wet kiss to Rahm Emanuel, and concludes that Rahm Emanuel is on his way out:

My second thought was, “Wow, what a hatchet job on Jarrett, Gibbs and Axelrod!” Since Rahm is obviously feeding this to Milbank, that is very revealing. You don’t throw these kinds of bombs unless you’ve already lost. This is an act of desperation. It’s bound to make mortal enemies of these people inside Obama’s inner circle. You can’t really work with these people anymore. That means you’re already finished there.

This is basically Rahm saying on his way out, I was right all along and these guys were wrong. ………

I hope that he is right, but Taylor Marsh sees a bigger picture, and it is scary:

But what if the problem isn’t Rahm?

It’s the question most Democrats can’t, won’t or refuse to face, because they can’t do anything about the answer. Because if they pretend it’s all about Rahm, hoping for his ouster, at least Democrats might get a re-set. With Gibby, Axe, Val and now even Dave still around, it’s better than nothing.”

Rahm Emanuel has some less than savory, and I think downright destructive characteristics, but Barack Obama is not simply some passive actor here; The problems here are clearly Barack Obama’s responsibility, his desk is where the buck stops, but it’s also likely that it’s his fault, and that his missteps on healthcare, stimulus, DADT, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.

The question is whether these are mistakes, or an artifact of who Barack Obama is.

I fear that this is the latter, because mistakes can be fixed, but if the attempts to make nice and split the difference is at Obama’s core, then we are screwed.

Pay Per View Review

It was time for another family movie night, and Charlie chose Up (2009).

Edward Asner…Carl Fredricksen (voice)
Christopher Plummer…Charles Muntz (voice)
Jordan Nagai…Russell (voice)
Bob Peterson…Dug / Alpha (voice)
Delroy Lindo…Beta (voice)
Jerome Ranft…Gamma (voice)
John Ratzenberger…Construction Foreman Tom (voice)
David Kaye…Newsreel Announcer (voice)
Elie Docter…Young Ellie (voice)
Jeremy Leary…Young Carl (voice)

There are some parts that are very funny, but at its core it’s not a funny film, it’s melancholy.

The issues that are significant parts of plot are about infertility or the loss of a child, the loss of a spouse, the abandonment of a child by his father, and the descent of a childhood hero into murderous obsession.

It is well scripted, well animated, and visually arresting, and it is in its own way rather sweet and touching, but I found it to be a basically sad film.

It’s a good film, but it’s much darker than the normal animated fare.

Obama Finally Comes Out With a Healthcare Plan

So, after months of deferring to Congress, and pissing away much of the political initiative, has finally released a proposal.

It’s not a full bill, it’s just a proposal, so it’s about 14 pages long, and it’s pretty much an exercise in splitting the baby, as Igor Volsky’s handy table shows.

Yep, once again, when there is a possibility to do something bold, Obama splits the difference, and dumps the public option, because an actual statement of policy, as opposed to just splitting the difference would be “distasteful”.

Seriously, what does he actually believe in?

(Table after break)

Provision Obama’s Bill House Bill Senate Bill
Affordability Improves the Senate bill’s subsidies for lower income Americans. Families below $44,000 and above $66,000 would pay less in premiums. Also raises the percent of health costs that are paid by insurers from the Senate proposal. Families earning below $55,000 would still receive more subsidies under the House bill, but Americans earning more than $55,000 would pay higher premiums (as compared to Obama’s proposal). The percent of costs paid by the insurers is higher than Obama’s proposal. Families making under $55,000 would see higher premiums than Obama’s proposal and the percent of costs paid for by health insurers is lower than Obama’s proposal.
Excise Tax ‘Labor agreement’ for everyone. Changes effective date of the Senate policy from 2013 to 2018. Raises the amount of premiums that are exempt from the assessment from $8,500 for singles to $10,200 and from $23,000 for families to $27,500 and indexes these amounts for subsequent years at general inflation plus 1 percent. No excise tax. 40% excise tax beginning in 2013 on individual polices worth $8,500 or higher and family policies starting at $23,000.
Payroll Tax Adopts Senate bill approach and adds a 2.9% assessment on unearned income. 5.4% surcharge on high-income households. Payroll tax increase of 0.9% on earnings above a specific threshold for a total employee assessment of 2.35% on these amounts.
Individual Mandate Mixed bag. May be easier for younger Americans to opt out. Lowers flat dollar amount to $695 by 2016 from the Senate bill and raises the alternative percent of income to House levels that individuals will pay for not having health insurance. Hardship waiver when premiums over 8% of their income, and couples under $18,700 are exempt from the requirement. 2.5% of income by 2016 with a limit of the average national health premium. Flat rate of $750 by 2016 and hardship waiver when premiums exceed 8% of income.
Employer Mandate No mandate, free rider provision. Large employers (50+ workers) have to pay a fee if employees receive subsidies. Improves transition to free-rider policy by subtracting first 30 workers. (A firm with 51 workers that does not offer coverage will pay an amount equal to 51 minus 30, or 21 times the applicable per employee payment amount.) Employer mandate. The House bill requires a payroll tax for employers that do not offer health insurance that meets minimum standards. No mandate, free rider provision. Large employers have to pay a fee if taxpayers are supporting the health insurance for their workers.
Grandfathered plans Plans have to conform to new regulations. Plans have cover adult dependents up to 26yo, prohibits rescission. After exchanges begin in 2014, plans can’t institute annual and lifetime limits or pre-existing condition exclusions. Beginning in 2018, the President’s Proposal requires “grandfathered” plans to cover proven preventive services with no cost sharing. “Grandfather” policy that allows people who like their current coverage, to keep it. Abide by all rules after 5 years. “Grandfather” policy that allows people who like their current coverage, to keep it.
Medicare Donut Hole Completely closes donut hole. Replaces $500 increase threshold increase limit with a $250 rebate to Medicare beneficiaries who hit the donut hole in 2010. Closes donut hole by phasing down the coinsurance so it is the standard 25% by 2020 throughout the coverage gap. The House bill fully phases out the donut hole over 10 years. Raise the dollar amount before the donut hole begins by $500 in 2010. The Senate bill provides a 50% discount for certain drugs in the donut hole. Raise the dollar amount before the donut hole begins by $500 in 2010.

I Guess the Name Ig Nobel Prize Was Taken

So instead, the award for the, ” the economist most responsible for causing the Global Financial Crisis, ” is called the “Dynamite Prize in Economics,” and the winner is Alan Greenspan, with Milton Friedman and Larry Summers getting 2nd and 3rd places in the competition:

Dynamite Prize Citations

Alan Greenspan (5,061 votes): As Chairman of the Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006, Alan Greenspan both led the over expansion of money and credit that created the bubble that burst and aggressively promoted the view that financial markets are naturally efficient and in no need of regulation.

Milton Friedman* (3,349 votes): Friedman propagated the delusion, through his misunderstanding of the scientific method, that an economy can be accurately modeled using counterfactual propositions about its nature. This, together with his simplistic model of money, encouraged the development of fantasy-based theories of economics and finance that facilitated the Global Financial Collapse.

Larry Summers (3,023 votes): As US Secretary of the Treasury (formerly an economist at Harvard and the World Bank), Summers worked successfully for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which since the Great Crash of 1929 had kept deposit banking separate from casino banking. He also helped Greenspan and Wall Street torpedo efforts to regulate derivatives.

Greenspan was a shoe-in.

*Full disclosure: While I never met the Milton Friedman, I have met his son, David, and have had a fair number of online discussions with him on our mutual hobby of history and living history.

American Dynamics Flight Systems: LH Series Launchers

One of the recent developments in air to ground munitions has been the addition of guidance to the 2.75 inch FFAR (Folding-Fin Aerial Rocket) in the form of the of the laser guided APKWS (Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System) and DAGR (Direct Attack Guided Rocket).

This venerable weapons system, originally developed as an air to air weapon in the 1940s, found its niche as an unguided air to ground weapon, but with the addition of laser guidance, this system has the very real ability to in precision strike roles that do not require the weight, and cost of an existing system.

Theoretically, this could allow for a rocket, now improved to “Hydra 70”, to be used in scenarios for which the Hellfire is, pardon the pun, overkill to take out a room, or a guy in a truck.


M260(r) and M261 rocket launchers

The problem is that many of the applications for Hellfire are for smaller UAVs, the launcher for the 2.75″ rocket, the M260 and M261 are too heavy and too draggy to be effectively carried.

As is clear from the photo, they have the aerodynamics of a garbage can.

Additionally, they are limited life items, with the aluminum missile tubes having a life of 32 firings.

The folks at ADFS have an improved variant geared toward the guided variant, which, unlike the unguided variant, does not require ripple firing in order to achieve a reasonable chance of hitting the target.

It has two aerodynamic caps on the front and rear of to provide greater streamlining, and there is a single door on both caps to provide for launching.

Both rotate in sync, and the door opens prior to firing, and then shut until the next round is to be fired.


LH Launcher firing sequence

Additionally, the launcher is made from high temperature composites, which allows for an essentially unlimited lifetime, as well as significant weight savings.


Comparison with existing systems

Interfaces between the aircraft and the launcher are supposed to be identical to the M260/M261 launchers.

Economics Update

Chicago Fed Index

OK, the good news is that the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s national activity index was positiver, so we are back to something resembling treading water, and US commercial real estate prices rose 4.1% in December.

Yes, that is a month to month number, and a pretty big jump at that, though it’s worth noting that, “prices are still down 29.2 percent year over year and 40 percent from the peak.”

Additionally, short sales of have jumped again in January:

According to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, short sales accounted for a substantial 15.9 percent of home purchase transactions in January. This was well above the share of other distressed property activity – with damaged REO accounting for 13.4 percent of activity and move-in ready REO making up 13.8 percent.

The January figures represent a steady increase in short sale popularity. As recently as November of 2009, short sales accounted for 12.4 percent of the home purchase market, according to the Campbell report, behind move-in ready REO at 12.6 percent and nearly even with damaged REO transactions at 12.3 percent.

I would note that when you add short sales, damaged REO (basically foreclosures), and undamaged REO together, means that at least 43.1% of all sales.

In energy, oil continues to climb, approaching $80/bbl, and in currency, and the dollar was mixed.