Author: Matthew G. Saroff

1937 All Over Again

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This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.

Barack Obama and His Stupid Minions™ are looking at budget cuts to reduce the deficit.

Dude, we are in a liquidity trap, take your foot off the accelerator now, and we are all toast.

You are talking about doing what Roosevelt did in 1937, and it will get very ugly if you do.

Don’t make me call out Freddie Dalton Thompson on you….Oops…too late.

The real lesson of the last stimulus package is to ignore the “moderates”, who will make a cut just to make a cut, and include tax cuts, which offer the smallest bang for the buck.

Republican Family Values

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Blake Hall, a fixture in Idaho Republican politics, he’s a member of the Republican National Committee (RNC), Bonneville County’s Chief Civil Attorney, former Idaho Republican Chairman, and former school board member, pled guilty to stalking a young woman:

Idaho Falls police reported that witnesses said Hall disposed of used condoms on the lawn of the woman’s house. Nineteen condoms were turned over to police, collected on 10 different dates, according to a police report. Both Hall and his lawyer acknowledged the condoms belonged to him, according to a police report.

Also, between March and August, Hall repeatedly followed the woman to restaurants, the movies and her home, and he ignored her repeated requests that he leave her alone, according to police and court records.

The victim testified Friday that Hall once followed her to a Walmart and took her car keys and would not return them until she agreed to “hear him out” concerning her marriage, the Idaho Falls Post Register reported.

(emphasis mine)

You do get all the cranks, creeps, and perverts in the GOP, don’t you?

9/11 Plotters to be Tried in United States

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There are a couple of interesting points to this development, the first is that Attorney General Holder is clearly cherry picking, with those people for whom he feels that a conviction is guaranteed, such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, getting trials in Federal Court, while other people getting military commissions, because they evidence is either shakier or tainted:

Mr. Holder also announced military tribunals for five other Guantanamo detainees, including Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, alleged to have planned the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen. Officials said the tribunals were chosen, over civilian courts, based on several factors, including the fact that their alleged crimes were against military targets or occurred overseas.

Navy Lt. Cdr. Stephen Reyes, the lawyer for Mr. Nashiri, said “The decision today was legally unsound. The real reason why the government chose to go to a commission was to ensure a conviction through otherwise inadmissible evidence.”

Another issue, and one that has not yet been brought up in the press is that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s children are currently being held by the United States, or held by someone with whom the United States has significant control over, and I’m waiting for a defense attorney to say that their client cannot aid in their own defense because, “KSM’s children [ages would appear to be in the 8-12 year old range] are held hostage by the United States.”

I am not a lawyer, I am an engineer, dammit,* but if I were a lawyer, and I were his lawyer, this would be one of the first motions that I would bring up, because if your client has the prospect of harm to his children hanging over his head.

It’s clear that the US knows the location and condition of his children, and this would be yet another mess left by Obama’s refusal to thoroughly clean house following Bush’s gulags.

*I LOVE IT when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!

Our Parrots in Congress

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He was an overpriced rookie flameout with the brain of a turnip* then, and he’s an overpriced rookie flameout with the brain of a turnip* now.

So, big pharma is trying to get a bill through Congress for draconian exclusivity periods for so called “biologics” drugs. It’s 12 years, but with minor changes, snipping a hydroxyl, or adding a time released variant, they could drug companies could extend their government granted monopolies virtually infinitely. (also here, both from Jane Hamshire)

Well, in response to Jane’s push against these provisions, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) turned on their lobbyists, and wrote statements that 42 Congressmen read into the record, almost verbatim.

The kicker is that there were two versions of their talking points, a Republican version and a Democratic version, so depending on party, they were using different cheat sheets….Except, of course for Heath Shuler (DINO-Loser Land), who somehow or other managed to use the Republican version of the talking points.

As a Washington Redskin’s fan, this wanker has been bedeviling me since 1994…..Please, make it stop!!!

Monty Python’s dead parrot sketch after the break.

*My apologies to anyone who fancies turnips.†

†Like this guy.

Quote of the Day

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Ayn Rand: The Boring Bitch is Back

—Barry Ritholtz discussing an article in GQ that excoriates the author.

Ritholtz himself describes her as a, “pedantic bore,” who writes, “blindingly horrific prose.”

I agree with both, though I have never been able to force myself to read anything of hers beyond The Virtue of Selfishness, a perusal of which made me <sarcasm>long for the straightforward and beautifully written prose of Immanuel Kant</sarcasm> and consider self immolation as an alternative to reading any more of hew work.

His last bit is prize:

Worst of all, Rand’s Objectivism has become the rationale for all manner of morally repugnant behaviour. However, I did take one personal lesson from Atlas Shrugged to heart: Anytime I see a parked car with a John Galt bumper sticker, I like to knock off one of the sideview mirrors, and leave it on the hood. I include a note stating my selfish, random act made me feel good, and therefore should be a perfectly fine act in their world.

I assume the recipients miss the irony . . .

Swiss Look to Postpone Fighter Selection

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It looks now like the final decision by the Swiss will likely be delayed until 2011, (paid subscription required) and the size of the order may be reduced from 30 to 22 aircraft.

It looks to me like budget considerations are an issue, which would mitigate against the $100-$140 million Eurofighter Typhoon. The Rafale is somewhat cheaper, at about $80 million, and the Gripen is “cheapest” at $40-60 million, which would tend to favor the Gripen.

Additionally, the Gripen is about ½ the size of the competitors, which means that operating costs would be much less, and the aircraft that it is replacing, the F-5 was never the high end of the Swiss AF fighter mix anyway.

Of course, Saab lacks the industrial connections for potential offset deals too, and if the Swiss wish to train at nearby bases, these bases will either have Rafales (France), or Typhoons (Germany, Italy, and Austria) already deployed there, which might simplify support there.

This makes the entire decision process hard to predict, to put it mildly.

Israel Drops V-22

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The IDF is looking at the CH-53K instead.

It makes sense, really. Israel is the size of New Jersey, and the CH-53 is much more flexible, and the difference in speed does not make much of a difference.

Let’s roll the numbers

V-22 Ch-53K
Speed 450 km/h 315 km/h
Payload 6,800 kg 15,900 kg
Range 1,627 km 841 km
Cabin Size (lxwxh) 7.3m x 1.8m x 1.8m 9.1m x 2.7m x 2.0m

Since going from one corner of Israel to the other is on the order of 400 km, the CH-53 K can cover the entire country, carrying more, and carrying more internally.

Additionally, the V-22 costs about $70 million as versus about $30 million for the CH-53K.

With a reduced payload and supplemental tanks, something like a special forces insertion is going to have similar range, and the larger internal payload allows the on an offloading of larger vehicles more quickly.

Finally, in a “hot” landing zone, the V-22, with its heavily loaded props/rotors, is more susceptible to vortex ring state (basically a stall in a rotary winged aircraft), and has to descend more slowly, increasing vulnerability to ground fire.

It’s a no brainer for Israel not to buy the V-22.

Come to think of it, it may be a no brainer for everyone not to buy the V-22.

Remember the White House Counsel Getting Fired?

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It only happened on Friday, and my comment at the time about Greg Craig’s replacement, Robert Bauer was, “Think Alberto “Abu” Gonzales writ small.”

Well Glenn Greenwald comes across an essay that Mr. Bauer wrote, where he supports the pardon of Scooter Libby, what’s more he does so in the crassest terms, by suggesting that Bush would harm himself more by pardoning Libby.

Keep this guy away from toilet paper, because he will sign anything.

When Conservatives Have Lost Cokie Roberts

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They have jumped the shark, and when Cokie Roberts, whose shtick over the last 30 years has been to criticize Democrats for being….Democrats…says that Jon Voight’s ramblings suggesting that Obama has been “programmed” are, “cringe-worthy,” it means something.

Lou Dobbs broke the conservative barrier on TV, by getting thrown off the air for being too wingnutty, a first time I think that this has happened to a major media figure.

I think that the Republicans are crossing lines that are beginning to freak out the “very serious people” inside the beltway.

H/t The Washington Monthly

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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TIPS Spread


US Trade Deficit, h/t Calculated Risk

Notwithstanding all the chest pounding by folks claiming that the, “recession is over,” consumer sentiment is continuing to fall, with the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers falling to 66.0 in November, from 70.6 in October.

It also looks like real estate is in the same bind, with the US Home Purchase Index falling to a 9-year low last week, on concerns that the about what was going on with the new home buyer tax credit.

Basically, this is showing that the only thing keeping the home market from falling further, is massive government support.

We have some good news on inflation, unless you are like me, and see a period of sustained inflation as a way to monetize debts paralyzing our economy.

Paul Krugman has looked at the TIPS Spread, (top pic) basically the spread between the interest demanded by bond buyers on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), and regular Tressuries, and notes that recent widening of the gap between the two interest rates is because the rates for TIPS has fallen, as opposed to the rates for normal treasuries having gone up, which is kind of the opposite of what you would expect if the bond market was pricing in inflation.

In terms of international trade, we are seeing that the GDP of the Euro Zone has gone positive, and the US trade deficit jumped in September, (bottom pic) both of which indicate improvements in international commerce.

Basically, this news drove the dollar down, because traders were less interested in a safe haven, and oil fell to $76.35/bbl on Thursday’s strong inventory numbers.

Why Does No One Ever Quote Bob Herbert?

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Lord knows, I rarely, if ever, quote him, and his mist recent column in the New York Times deserves notice.

His basic point is that there is no recovery for most of the country, even as “Wall Street can boast about recovery all it wants, much of America remains trapped in economic hell.”

Herbert writes about this stuff a lot, and he’s treated like a red-haired stepchild, he rarely gets quoted in the blogosphere, either pro or con.

I’m not sure why this is.

I Loves Me Some Good Parody

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And the folks at New York Magazine have riffed on Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book Too Big to Fail, an account of the financial meltdown, and come up with Too Big to Fail and ZOMBIES.

Do not read this while drinking anything, or you will need to clean your screen.

Here is a sample:

It made for an awkward moment, as Merrill CEO John Thain was only seats away. He was likely the next to get the plague, the executives well knew, as his firm was full of the deathless monsters. He had remained notably silent during the exchanges.

“You guys get this done for me, and I’ll make sure I can take care of AIG and Merrill,” Paulson replied. “I’m a little uncomfortable talking about Merrill with John right in the room.” He glanced uneasily at Thain, whose face, everyone suddenly became aware, had taken on a deathly pallor. “John,” said Paulson hesitantly. “Have you been bitten?”

It was then that Thain let out a gutteral animal howl. Half-rising from his chair, he lunged toward Pandit. “BRAINS!” he moaned.

“Holy sh%$!” exclaimed Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack, who was sitting in between the men. He rolled his chair out of the way.

Geithner ran out of the room, screaming like a little girl.

(emphasis mine)

I needed to clean my screen.

JSF Engine Update

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The F136 alternate engine was running on the test stand, and sustained minor damage, which led people to rumors that the combustor needed to be redesigned.

It now turns out that the problem is much less severe than originally reported. The damage was from a lug that attaches the diffuser to the combustor that came loose during testing.

Obviously, this is not something that you want happening on an aircraft in flight, though the damage was minor, and not noticed until the engine was torn down after a test run, but it’s a not uncommon thing to have happen at this state of the development process.

And While We are On the Tanker…..

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Both Boeing and Northrop/Grumman-EADS are expressing serious concerns on the USAF’s draft tanker Request for Proposals (RFP). (paid subscription required)

We have Northrop’s complaint that Boeing got Northrop’s detailed pricing data when it made its challenge on the last contract, and Boeing is complaining that there requirements are all weighted identically:

The draft RFP places equal value on non-essential and essential qualities—such as sink and toilet water flow and fuel offload or past performance—respectively. “If everything is important, is anything important?” [Boeing business development vice president Mitchell] Waldman said. “In this competition, risk is essentially pass/fail.” In the last competition, key requirements were weighed as well as past performance and risk.

There are also complaints from Boeing that have not been released to the public.

The Secretary of the Airforce has stated that he is open to changing the RFP, but that would invite a repeat of the last clusterf$#@ on tanker procurement.