Author: Matthew G. Saroff

When Comparing the Tanker Proposals

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It would be a good thing to remember that Italy has still not received its 767 tankers, because there are problems with the centerline hose and drogue.

Boeing’s delivery of 767 tanker aircraft to the Italian Air Force has slipped again as the company fixes a problem with the hose-and-drogue refueling system, a senior Italian defense source said.

Italy ordered four tankers in 2002, with deliveries first expected in 2005, before a series of hitches, including vibrations in wing pylons, pushed the schedule back.

One of the reasons that Northrop won the last time around, was that the USAF doubted that Boeing could deliver the tankers on time and on budget.

Also note that drogue/boom thing is an area where Boeing is specifically claiming that its high level of expertise makes them uniquely suited for the contract.

An Interesting Solution to Heating in High Speed Flight

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Germany’s aerospace research center, DLR, is looking at a capillary system using water for cooling on a civilian high speed sub orbital transport

Obviously, you have the weight of the water to deal with, but with the specific heat of water being more than double that of kerosene (4.19 vs 2.01 kJ/kg K), the greater density of water ( 1000 vs. 817.15 kg/m3), and the much greater heat of vaporization (2257 vs 108 kJ/kg), there are weight savings with the associated pumps, tankage, and tubing:

An orbiter sub-scale wing leading edge section made of carbonfibre-reinforced carbon (known as carbon-carbon and developed for use in the nose cones of intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as Space Shuttle leading edges) will be water cooled. In theory the temperature of the orbiter’s wing leading edges could reach up to 2,500 Kelvin (2,227°C).

“With water you can use small amounts because it takes so much energy for a phase state change [from liquid to gas]. The leading edge will cool to the temperature of the boiling water and natural capillary action will constantly draw the fluid through the material to the surface at the rate we need,” says DLR space launcher systems analysis group research engineer Arnold Van Foreest.

Of course, the real problem here is not cooling, it’s the economics of such a transport, where the costs of transporting payload/passengers will likely be in excess of €10/kg in a best case situation, mitigate against this becoming reality.

We Can Have Scotch and Water on the Moon

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LCROSS


Image of Plume at +20 after impact


Near-infrared spectrometer data. Yellow areas indicate the water absorption bands


Data from the ultraviolet/visible spectrometer

And we only need to bring the Scotch, because the LCROSS impact data indicates water on moon, and not just water on the moon, but lots of water on the moon.

It appears that we are talking gallons of water in an area the size of a football field, which is by earth standards pretty f$#@ing dry, but is actually enough to be “mined” as a resource.

This is interesting not just because it makes the possibility of a habitation there more interesting, but it also raises the question as to the source of the water.

The usual suspects here are comets, the solar wind, or some hitherto unknown lunar process.

Video of discussion after break.

Special Software Gives JSF 50% Lethality Boost for JSF

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Unfortunately, as Bill Sweetman laments, the software in question is:

While we’re going back and forth about the supposed sixfold advantage of the JSF over anything except the F-22, see this from a year ago:

“U.S. Air Force analyses show the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is at least 400 percent more effective in air-to-air combat capability than the best fighters currently available in the international market.”

And now it’s 600 per cent. This does of course prove convincingly that Lockheed Martin is right to suggest that the F-35’s capability will be able to be vastly improved through software alone.

That software being, in this case, PowerPoint.

…

(emphasis mine)

Mr. Sweetman owes me a screen wipe.

VIDEO: Japan TV profiles Shinshin stealth fighter – The DEW Line

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The trust vectoring system in the video resembles that of the X-31

Stephen Trijble came across this video of Japans for developing their own stealthy fighter.

It appears to be similar to the F-22 in configuration, and it looks like they are looking for stealth and supercruise, though the slab sides on the side of the fuselage (at about 0:25) look to my very untrained eye to be an issue, and given that it is much smaller than the F-22, to my eye less than 1/2 the weight, I’m not sure how much it would be able to carry internally.

It also looks like they have a 3-D thrust vectoring system on the the video (2:30)is very similar to that of the X-31 Enhanced Fighter Maneuverability test bed (shown in bottom picture).

It’s a wicked neat video, and the translation, while sometimes clumsy, is sufficient.

William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson Gets 13 Years

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I don’t see the sentence as unjust, this man was aggressively corrupt, and took bribes.

I do wonder though why Randall “Duke” Cunningham, who did far worse, compromising major defense contracts and the operations of the CIA in the process of his corruption only got 7 years?

As to whether it’s a black/white thing, or a Democratic/Republican thing, or Cunningham’s age/health, or his history as a stick jock, I don’t know, but the disparity is troubling.

I’m not saying that Jefferson didn’t get what he deserved. He deserved that, and more.

I’m saying that Cunningham should have gotten more, even with the leniency accorded a guilty plea relative to Jefferson’s conviction.

Breaking: Greg Craig Out as White House Counsel

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This was the point man on closing down the gulag at Guantanamo, drafting the memo that called for closing it within a year, as well as the point man on releasing the Bush White House torture memos, and now he’s been fired (resigned) in a classic Friday afternoon bury the news tactic.

My guess is that this means that Barack Obama intends to “embrace and extend”, indefinite detention, probably at Bagram rather than Gitmo, show trials called military commissions, and torture, but YMMV.

In any case, replacing him will be Robert Bauer, who was Barack Obama’s personal attorney from 2005 onwards, as well as the general council for both the DNC and OFA, so I think that what we are getting here is someone who will be a providing justifications for actions, as opposed to reviewing them for legality.

Think Alberto “Abu” Gonzales writ small.

The Boycott is Getting Results

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Following repeated actions by Barack Obama and his administration to do absolutely nothing about gay rights, including a particularly illuminating exchange between DNC Treasurer and Andrew Tobias, which I noted here.

Well, it appears that some people concluded that enough was enough, and John Aravosis launched a donor boycott of the DNC. (There is a particularly damning list of the bill of particulars at the link)

So, after months of everyone, including Barney Frank, saying that nothing could be done right now about Don’t Ask Don’t Tell (DADT), because the plate was too full, we now treated to the spectacle of that same Barney Frank saying that DADT will be repealed in next year’s defense authorization bill. (see also here)

Amazing that.

I think that if people are interested in gay civil rights, it needs to be understood that while Barack Obama and his administration may not be homophobic, they are hostile to the expenditure of any political capital on this matter.

Simply put, while they may not hate gays, they find the LGBT community inconvenient.

This means that the only way that anything is going to get done is if the LGBT community makes doing nothing even more inconvenient.

More Ass Covering by the Fed

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So, under political pressure from the Ron Paul audit bill and the Chris Dodd bill, which strips regulatory authority from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve Board has announced final rules prohibiting the charging of “overdraft protection” for ATM and debit cards unless the consumer specifically opts in.

There is a reason that I emphasize political pressure: It is because it is clear that the Fed is under pressure, and it is clear that the only reason that it is finally taking consumer friendly steps is because they they feel this pressure.

The effect of insulating a bank regulator from public pressure is to have them favor the banks.

Full press release after break:

Press Release


Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: November 12, 2009
For immediate release

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced final rules that prohibit financial institutions from charging consumers fees for paying overdrafts on automated teller machine (ATM) and one-time debit card transactions, unless a consumer consents, or opts in, to the overdraft service for those types of transactions.

Before opting in, the consumer must be provided a notice that explains the financial institution’s overdraft services, including the fees associated with the service, and the consumer’s choices. The final rules, along with a model opt-in notice, are issued under Regulation E, which implements the Electronic Fund Transfer Act.

“The final overdraft rules represent an important step forward in consumer protection,” said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. “Both new and existing account holders will be able to make informed decisions about whether to sign up for an overdraft service.”

The Board’s consumer testing shows that most consumers prefer not to be enrolled in overdraft services for ATM and one-time debit card transactions unless they affirmatively consent, or opt in. At the same time, testing shows that most consumers want overdraft services to cover important bills, such as checks they use to pay rent, utilities, and telephone bills.

To ensure that consumers have a meaningful choice, the final rules prohibit financial institutions from discriminating against consumers who do not opt in. The final rules require institutions to provide consumers who do not opt in with the same account terms, conditions, and features (including pricing) that they provide to consumers who do opt in. For consumers who do not opt in, the institution would be prohibited from charging overdraft fees for any overdrafts it pays on ATM and one-time debit card transactions.

“Overdraft fees can be costly,” said Governor Elizabeth A. Duke, the chair of the Board’s Committee on Consumer and Community Affairs. “Our rule will help consumers better understand the terms and conditions of overdraft services and will give them an opportunity to avoid fees when these services do not meet their needs.”

The Federal Register notice is attached. The final rules are effective July 1, 2010.

A Clarification and an Apology

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In my earlier post on the Taliban severing ties to al Qaeda, I said the following:

Al Qaeda was never particularly popular in Afghanistan, where the people are, after all not Arabs, and they have about as much love for rich Arabs as we in the United States do.

Bin Laden was there because the Taliban wanted his money, not him.

When they were in control of Afghanistan, not only were they not fierce protectors of him, but they were trying to find a way for help the US make him dead in a way that gave them some plausible deniability.

As Sortition notes (In the comments of the previous post. BTW, read his blog, Pro Bono Statistics), this could be construed as an endorsement of bigotry against Arabs. This is not my intent.

To the degree that some people in Afghanistan or the West dislike “Arabs”, it is an indictment of those people, who are exhibiting bigotry toward Arabs.

Arabs are people like everyone else, and they love their families, just like everyone else, and while there are shortcomings in the governance of most Arab states, these are issues of complaints against the ruling elites.

So, a criticism of the House of Saud (or Mubarak in Egypt, or Qaddafi in Libya, or the Al-Sabah’s of Kuwait, or the Zayed’s of the UAE, the Assads of Syria, al Bashir in Sudan, King Mohammed of Morocco, etc.), or its policies is no more a criticism of the Arab people than criticism of the rulers of America, Goldman Sachs, would be a criticism of the American people.

Remember My Earlier Post on Judges Taking Kickbacks to Send Children to Jail

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The post, from February, is here.

In any case, a judge, the aptly named Arthur Grim, has reviewed the case files, and come away shocked:

The judge who studied Luzerne County’s “cash-for-kids” scheme said yesterday that children’s constitutional rights had been denied and justice perverted “in ways that I would never have dreamed possible.”

 Judge Arthur E. Grim of Berks County, who reviewed transcripts of about 100 cases of juveniles caught up in the scheme, said the scandal grew out of “unfettered power, greed, opportunity, and intimidation.”

here is the kicker though:

Lawyers, court employees, and school officials knew of the scheme, but winked at it for convenience or self-preservation, Grim testified.

This isn’t just a couple of bad judges. Pretty much every lawyer, and every school administrator in Luzerne County ad to know about it.

What’s more, the school administrators used it for their petty vendettas:

He said many school officials supported Ciavarella’s “zero-tolerance” policies toward teenagers no matter how minor the offense.

“When a misbehaving kid was brought to school authorities, they immediately picked up the phone and called the police,” Grim testified. “They did this because they knew that if they did, that child would go before Judge Ciavarella and would be out of their hair as a problem.”

When Hillary Transue was sent before the judge by a vice-principal who pressed charges of harassment about a spoof Facebook page that had her [the vice-principal] collecting Johnny Depp’s used underwear, this person, educator is not the right word, and whoever in the DA’s office who decided to continue with this, knew, that this was going to get a girl thrown in jail because the judge was taking bribes.

The Judge Grim notes:

“We know the people in this community did not consciously choose to stand on the side of injustice at the expense of children. But what was it that made it so hard to do the right thing? Were people afraid? Were they intimidated? By whom? What protections would they have wanted? Where would they have wanted to take the information they had?”

The judge has it wrong. People wanted this. This is what “tough on crime” and “zero tolerance” means. It means disproportionate, destructive, evil application of the law, and judges Mark Ciavarella Jr. and Michael Conahan could do this because this is what the people of Luzerne County wanted.

The prosecution loves a “hanging judge”. The principals wanted judges would make problem children go away. The voters wanted “tough on crime” and “zero tolerance“.

They all wanted to hurt children, so long as it was someone else’s child.

Atrios calls them, “Really awful people.” I’m not sure if he means just the judges, or the DA’s office, or perhaps also the school administrators.

Me, I mean everyone in that whole damn county.

If that vice-principal is still working for the school district, the good people of Luzerne county, both of them, should organize an angry mob.

Another Economic Indicator

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One of those friends that I’ve never met in meat space, Bill Volk of the mobile device software company Playscreen was at the AdTech converence in New York city. His ovservation (along with his pic on the right):

The AdTech conference in NYC is JAMMED. The line to get badges for pre-registered attendees was over 1000 people long with a one hour wait.

Advertising can be a leading indicator.

He lives in California, and noted that he had the first real bagel since the last time he was in NYC.

You can get them here, in Baltimore, Goldbergs Bakery, where you can sometimes watch them boil the bagels before baking.

Anyone know where real bagels can be found in Southern California?

God Bless the Onion

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Luis Miguel Salvador Aguila Dominguez, alias “Lou Dobbs,” is escorted by DHS agents to the airport to be sent back to Mexico.

Brilliant!

U.S. Deports Lou Dobbs

WANTAGE, NJ—Acting on anonymous tips from within the Hispanic-American community, U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials on Wednesday deported Luis Miguel Salvador Aguila Dominguez, who for the last 48 years had been living illegally in the United States under the name Lou Dobbs.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, federal agents stormed the undocumented immigrant’s home in an evening raid just hours after the 64-year-old newscaster suddenly announced that he was resigning from CNN, and immediately placed him on an Aeromexico flight departing from Newark Liberty Airport.

Just go and read the whole thing.

Economics Update

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Unemployment, H/t Calculated Risk

Today is Jobless Thursday, and new jobless claims fell to 503,000, down from 514,000 (revised from 512K_) the lowest since January, with the 4 week moving average falling to 519,750 from last week’s 524,250, and continuing claims fell to 5.63 million.

This is good news, but we need to be down to about 400K a week to be in jobless recovery, as opposed to “job-loss recovery”, mode, (see graph pr0n, right) so there is still a way to go.

I would note that the metrics that involve moving physical objects, like port and truck traffic, and this week’s report on rail traffic from the AAR are still week. with traffic in October down 15.3% from a year ago, and down 0.3% from September.

It looks like bad news for the monoliner bond insurers is heating up, with French bond insurer CIFG is on a path to an insolvency filing.

In real estate, mortgage applications hit a 9-year low, despite the fact that the 30-year fixed mortgage fell again.

Additionally, we have dueling headlines, with CNBC saying, “Foreclosures Fall Again,” (true, though the call the improvement “fleeting”) but Bloomberg saying that, “U.S. Foreclosure Filings Surpass 300,000 for 8th Straight Month.” (also true.

Your call as to hed is the right one.

Meanwhile, there was an auction for 30 year Treasuries, and prices fell, because….Hell, I don’t know why they fell….Maybe inflation concerns, since the 3 and 10-year auctions were fairly well received.

Then we have our last bit, energy and currency, and oil fell, largely on an unexpectedly high inventory numbers, and the dollar rose, as investors looked for a safe haven.

Pushback on Supporting Karzai

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It’s beginning to look like Obama has a problem in Afghanistan.

On one side, he has the military, which is pushing for an escalation, because too many of the senior officers are too invested in their theories of irregular warfare, and have lost sight of the regional goal, and so are looking for “victory” (McChrystal, Petraeus).

On the other side, which also includes military personnel, you have people see the real goals of Afghanistan as simply insuring that al Qaeda does not create another safe-haven there, and this side includes much of the state department, most of our European allies, and now, it appears, Karl Eikenberry, the US ambassador to Afghanistan, who has sent memos saying that an escalation would make things worse.

Note that Eikenberry is a retired general, and he commanded US forces there in 2007 and 2007, but until now he has scrupulously avoided comment on the military end of things:

Although Eikenberry’s extensive military experience and previous command in Afghanistan were the key reasons Obama chose him for the top diplomatic job there, the former general had been reluctant as ambassador to weigh in on military issues. Some officials who favor an increase in troops said they were surprised by the last-minute nature of his strongly worded cables.

In these and other communications with Washington, Eikenberry has expressed deep reservations about Karzai’s erratic behavior and corruption within his government, said U.S. officials familiar with the cables. Since Karzai was officially declared reelected last week, U.S. diplomats have seen little sign that the Afghan president plans to address the problems they have raised repeatedly with him.

When I made comparisons to the mistakes made following the assassination of Diem in Vietnam, I had no idea that people who have Obama’s ear were of like mind.

Karzai is there because the US installed him, and could only gain legitimacy through the quality of his governance, hence he has no legitimacy in Afghanistan.

With all that is going on, and there are now official statements from the White House saying that, “Our commitment is not open-ended,” which implies people are starting to get a clue, and aren’t being hawkish because they think that it will help in 2012.