Author: Matthew G. Saroff
Zimbabwe Update
Well, Annan and Carter are calling for the SADC to get off their tuchases and do something, which is unlikely to happen, since they’ve already tried to fob off a phony deal on the MDC.
Thabo Mbeki and most of the leadership of the Southern African Development Community do not want just resolution, because it’s a gun pointed to most of their heads, since much of their opposition comes from the trade union movement too, so a victory will embolden them, which is why they suggested a fictitious “joint ministry” for interior, which is one the primary tools used by Mugabe to maintain control through harassment, violence, and intimidation.
In the meantime, the MDC says that any deal it signs must involve real and profound power, which is not surprising.
ZANU-PF is so blatantly corrupt that they changed an agreed upon document out before signing. (link)
They also note that the illegal detention of MDC activists by agents of the ZANU-PF do not give them cause to believe that talks would be worthwhile.
On the brighter side, if there can be said to be a brighter side in Zimbabwe, it appears taht the general populace has gotten so desperate that they are fighting back against Zimbabwean troops:
Hundreds of angry Zimbabweans attacked soldiers carrying out a crackdown on illegal foreign currency trading in the capital Harare on Monday in a further sign of the country’s collapse.
The crowd hurled stones at the troops and chanted “beat the soldiers,” accusing them of hitting and robbing people during the currency operation.
On the darker side, there has been an outbreak of cholera, killing at least 500, and the response of Mugabe and his associates has been to shut down the municipal water supply, which is more like trying to put a fire out with gasoline than anything I could possibly imagine.
Seriously, while Gordon Brown is calling Iceland a terrorist state, the ZANU-PF government of Zimbabwe is a terrorist government, and a declaration by the US and UK, with the associated freezing of assets held by high level government officials might do something.
These folks are engaging in a terror campaign to maintain power.
Election Updates
Well, Franken is still down, but Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com says that his math has Franken to winning the recount by 27 votes.
He notes that his number have error bars much larger than 27 votes though, but Nate did call a Begich win the day after the election.
That being said, he is also not considering either the thousands of challenged ballots or rejected absentee votes, and those numbers dwarf his error bar too.
Meanwhile, in the Georgia Senate runoff, the ‘Phants fracked up big time. They sent out a mailing to Republithug voters to get thm to vote by absentee ballots, and neglected to mention that they should sign the applications:
Many of the unsigned requests came in the form of cards printed by the Republican National Committee and mailed to voters. Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in a tight battle to retain his seat by beating Democratic challenger Jim Martin.
The signature line on the RNC cards is easy to miss since it appears after an entry asking voters to enter an address different from their permanent one. Georgia doesn’t require voters to give a reason for voting by absentee ballot.
OOPS.
We also have Tom Perriello certified as defeating racist scumbag Rep. Virgil H. Goode by 745 votes. Goode is likely to ask for a recount, but the margin is actually large enough that it’s unlikely to matter.
One interesting thing about all this is that because the certification was so late, Perriello couldn’t take part in the office lottery for freshmen.
Not to worry though, he gets what’s left and that’s Virgil Goode’s office, which, because Goode was a 6 term incumbent, is a very nice office. Heh.
Finally, though not technically an election, but Biden aide Ted Kaufman has been selected to replace the him when he becomes Vice-President.
The Citi Bailout
No details, but considering that it’s George W. Bush and Hank Paulson and Their Evil Minions™, mu guess is that it:
- Will be a givaway.
- Won’t address the underlying problem (fire Bob Rubin).
- Won’t be adequate under even those terms.
As details come in, and as I read stuff from people who actually have a clue about this crap, I’ll update.
MN Election Update
There are indications that the Coleman Campaign is being aggressive with challenges, probably to attempt to ensure that they go into the canvassing board with a lead, because they do not like the trend.
In any case, the Colman campaign is now eschewing its earlier statements about not talking the canvassing board’s decision to court.
So Coleman is definitely nervous….I would note that the swings are much smaller than in Florida, indicating a better balloting process.
Gail Collins is on some Very Strong Meds
gail Collins is suggesting that George W. Bush resign for the good of the country so that Barack Obama can start implementing his policies.
Ignoring the precedent, which is very bad, that it would set regarding presidents and serving out their their terms, the idea that Bush would resign, when he is already burrowing political appointees into the civil service and creating regulations in order to knee cap him is delusional.
George W. Bush is all about George W. Bush, and he believes that he is on a mission from God (which will hopefully take him to The Hague at some time), and the rejection of ego inherent in such an action, because it is an acknowledgment of his failure on a spectacularly grand scale.
It won’t happen.
OK, This is Just Creepy
Think Progress notes a bit of parody that came distressingly close to reality, a cover of Life magazine based on a movie in which Tina Fey was John McCain’s running mate.
I hate living in an era where parody consistently predicts reality.
Why Bush Caved on Iraqi Demands in SOF Agreement
Short version: Bush needed the agreement, and the Iraqis didn’t.
They knew that if there was no agreement, that they would win, and Bush and His Evil Minions&trade would lose, so they could drive a very hard bargain.
Bush was prisoner of his own ego.
Russian Sub Update
There are 3 items, and I don’t believe the first 2:
The Russian Navy is due to receive Severodvinsk 2010. Yeah right…..Considering the delays and cost overruns in their shipyards, the Indian carrier comes to mind, this is not going to happen on schedule.
They are also claiming that they will scrap all decommissioned nuclear submarines by 2012. See above.
The one that I do believe is reports that the Russians Russia will not lease the Akula II class nuke boat, Nerpa India.
Idon’t think that the recent fatal accident has anything to do with this. I think that this was always a ruse by the shipyard to get funding to finish the boat, with the goal of delivering it to the Russian navy.
IDF Shocked by JSF Price Spike
Well, the numbers that the Israelis are seeing :
“Defense News” reports that Ministry of Defense and Israel Air Force officials are “stunned by projected program costs for their Israel-unique version of the F-35” Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT). IAF and Ministry of Defense officials are struggling to pare a hefty list of customized subsystems and add-ons that threaten to ground the aircraft as unaffordable.
“Defense News” states that, in September, US F-35 program officials gave rough price and availability data to their Israeli counterparts, who reacted with sticker shock to the price tag of $200 million per plane. Since then, both sides have been seeking a new configuration that can meet IAF performance and budget requirements. The IDF had expected to pay about $2 billion – $80 million per plane – for the first 25 aircraft.
My money is on the Israeli numbers being closer to the truth than the Norwegian ones.
Doubtless, there costs with integrating Israeli systems into the airframe, but it’s increasingly clear that the high end estimates for cost are accurate, and largely unaffordable.
LockMart Stealth Video
It’s a nice primer on stealth. (3:40)
George W. Bush Broke Our Army
That’s, or at the least the conclusion that the US Army is broken, is the conclusion of well respected army analyst Andrew Krepinevich in a Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments report.
His basic points:
- The quality of enlisted men and officers is decreasing despite significant pay hikes.
- Physical, educational, and “moral” (i.e. criminal conviction) standards have been lowered for recruits.
- NCO quality is suffering, because enlisted men ill suited to leadership are being promoted to NCO status.
- Falling reenlistment numbers.
- Increased use of stop loss to maintain staffing levels.
- The Army is attempting to create units that are simultaneously configured for both conventional and counterinsurgency warfare, and thus under performing at both.
He does not explicitly finger Bush, but Iraq is clearly mentioned as a part of the problem.
His recommendations:
- Make 15 Army BCTs dediucated to counter-insurgency/peacekeeping.
- Delay expanding the army until personnel quality issues are resolved.
- Cancel the FCS, which has dubious utility in a counter-insurgency scenario, and is sucking up too much budget.
It is likely that the ill effects of Iraq will weigh on the army for more than a decade.
Interesting Regulatory Take on Open Rotor Engines
Are they unducted fans, are they high tech propellers, or are they, as one wag put it, a bunch of bananas whirling around.
I don’t know, and it appears that regulatory authorities are in a similar conundrum.
The regulations if they are classed as turbofan blades are stricter, and thus the would add more weight, and the regulations if they were classed as a propeller.
It’s a non-trivial issue that needs to be resolved.
40 Years in the Desert is Reorganizing as a Bank Holding Company
Because that way, much like Amex and GMAC, I can go to the treasury and get some of that money.
The South Should Be Irrelevant in American Political Discourse
Brad Delong finds some graphs that show a big difference between the South and the rest of the nation.
As he aptly puts it, “The whites in the heartland of today’s Republican Party just do not vote–and do not think–like the rest of us do.”
Simply put, in the rest of the nation, the greater contact with black people in your daily lives, the less bigoted you are, and in the south, the he greater contact with black people in your daily lives, the more bigoted you are.
One of the founding principles of the United States is the melting point. At the core of the melting pot is the idea that once you know the other, you will accept the other.
Anything else is un-American, and should have no part in our public policy discourse.
Elections Update
Well, the Strib running count of the Minnesota Senate race has the margin at 170, with 977 Franken challenges, and 1005 Coleman challenges.
It’s clear that this will turn on the challenges.
3 More Banks “Eated”, as Atrios Would Say
- PFF Bank and Trust, Pomona, CA
- Downey Savings and Loan, Newport Beach, CA
- The Community Bank, Loganville, GA
Chinese Carrier Ambitions
Last week, I noted that the Chinese showed a carrier in drydock in a mockup of a new port facility, and this week, we have a senior official in the Chinese Defense Ministry, Major General Quan Lihua, suggesting that China is looking at acquiring a carrier, though not to, “use it to pursue global deployment or global reach.”
Yeah, right.
This is About Pork, Nothing Else
Well, it looks like the US Navy is looking at moving a carried from Hampton Roads, Virginia to Mayport, Florida, near Jacksonville, and the Virginia Congressional delegation is throwing a fit over this.
This is not surprising, the presence of that carrier pumps something like ½ a billion dollars into the local economy.
The Navy is arguing that, “The five East Coast carriers should be dispersed as a hedge against a natural disaster or attack that could shut or cripple the sprawling Norfolk base.”
So, in order to hedge against natural disaster, you want to move the ships into hurricane alley, otherwise known as Florida.
Of course the idea that foreign power will launch a sneak attack on the base is ludicrous.
SecNav John Lehman did this in the 1980s, on the argument that it would make more difficult for Soviet subs to shadow fleet movements, but it was a crap argument then.
Of course, these days the USSR is no more, and the Russians can’t deploy a significant portion of their fleet and the Chinese are a decade from a meaningful submarine fleet, so there is no risk of attack.
The reality was that Lehman wanted to do this because it created more constituencies for his vision of a 600 ship navy, because a large number of small bases gets you the support of many congresscritters, where as one large base just gets you 1 or 2 districts support.
With the Navy claiming that their ships and aircraft are wearing out and need to be replaced, they still want to drop a billion dollars on the move, not because of military need, but because of political need.
More on the JSF Norway Buy
So, we have the statement by the Prime Minister that Norway has settled on the F-35 as its F-16 replacement.
What I find interesting is this article, which says Norway will pay $2.54 billion for 48 aircraft, because that figureds to $52 million per aircraft, which is less than half the unit costs I’ve been seeing.
Something is seriously whack with those numbers, which, as the Norwegian PM notes in his statement, is less than the Gripen, which is half it’s weight, and you pay for aircraft like you pay for ground beef, by the pound.
It may be that the money already put into the program by Norway as a JSF partner is being counted, but there have to be some seriously heavy duty “Jedi mind tricks” in the accounting too.