Author: Matthew G. Saroff

An Interesting Article on the Gripen

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And specifically on how SAAB will ensure that the upgraded Gripen NG will remain cost effective: (paid subscription required)

Moreover, Gripen NG embodies a new business model that aims to cut costs even with low production rates. “The market is extremely price-sensitive,” and the build approach for the new version reflects this, says Bob Kemp, marketing director for Gripen International.

In the past, Gripen embraced technologies that designers modified to fit specific needs—as was the case with the General Electric F404 engine that Volvo turned into the fighter’s RM12 powerplant. For the Gripen NG, Saab went directly to GE and asked for an F414, the latest version of the F/A-18E/F’s engine with minimal changes. The F414G features some adjustments to the full-authority digital engine control and power supply, largely because Gripen is a single-engine fighter (whereas the F/A-18E/F has two engines). This seemingly innocuous change allows Saab to reduce engine costs 20%, even though the F414 is a higher thrust engine with a greater sticker price than the F404.

(emphasis mine)

Another possibility in this model is the use of some commercial systems, with even greater cost/performance advantages.

It’s why I think that it will be see a successful export market. even though it just lost in Norway, because these aircraft, and pretty much all of the high end military systems out there, have gotten too damn expensive.

BTW, here is a nice bit of video from Aviation Week:

USAF Looking at Another Bite at the Raptor Apple

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Despite the best efforts of the Pentagon, which has determined that further F-22s are not necessary, the US air force is still trying to buy more of the gold plated fighters. (paid subscription required)

Of course, the USAF has said for years that they need 381, but now because they see that this number is impossible, they are trying to go for about 100 aircraft less, specifically something in the 250-275 range.

There is a word for this behavior, insubordination, and the civilians who are constitutionally in charge need to put a stop to this.

And Now the Existing F-22 Fleet is Becoming Unaffordable

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That is the unintended message from Pentagon acquisition executive John Young, who is asking for $8 Billion to upgrade the first 100 or so jets.

And it’s not just upgrades, the operational costs are spiking too:

But that’s not all the next Pentagon leaders will have to debate about the super-secret Raptor, he said. He said operational tests have showed the plane is “proving very expensive to operate.”

Those tests have shown what he called a negative trend, meaning the “maintenance man-hours per flying hour has increased through those tests. The last one was a substantial increase.”

Young also expressed concerns about the plane’s mission-capable rates, saying recent marks in the “62 percent kind of range” are “troubling.” He also said data shows the plane “meets some but not all” of its key performance parameters.”

Seriously, the Airforce won’t take budgeting and maintenance issues seriously until we take an entire generation of the Air Force’s latest and greatest to the Boneyard, Davis-Monthan AFB and chop them to bits while the UASF Chief of Staff is forced to watch.

This crap is absolutely out of control.

NG Announces Plug-In Tactical Laser

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The good folks at Northrop Grumman Space Technology have announced a 15kW solid state laser module.

It’s a rack mount, though at 15 kW, your backplane on your rack better have some heavy duty busbars.

Still, the fact that what appears to be a fieldable electrically powered laser is available for military deployment, though it is unclear as to how soon this would actually hit series production, seems to be an important development.

Certainly, it is a step up from the expensive and messy chemical lasers that we are seeing in places like Boeing’s airborne laser, which would appear to need an environmental impact statement each time that it fires.

Northrop Grumman Announces the FIRESTRIKE™ Laser, World’s First Weaponized Solid-State Laser for U.S. Military Services:
‘This is a rugged electric laser with power levels, beam quality and runtime suitable for offensive and defensive military utility. Also available is a newly designed laser current source assembly (LCSA), which is compact, and specifically developed to precisely meet FIRESTRIKE(tm)’s power needs. Combined with advanced electro optical and/or infrared sensors, the FIRESTRIKE(tm) laser can provide self-defense, precision strike and enhanced situational awareness capabilities.’

Interesting Note on Stealth Aircraft

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In this Aviation Week article on research into more making electronic systems on aircraft more efficient: (paid subscription required)

Goals of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Integrated Vehicle Energy Technology (Invent) program include extending range and endurance 10-15%, increasing power and thermal capacity by 10-30%, overcoming cooling challenges in low-observable platforms, and reducing life-cycle costs.

Because the stealthy F-22 and F-35 dump their heat into the fuel, they are “flying Thermos bottles,” says Steven Iden, AFRL’s Invent program manager. The heat loads in the F-35 are up to five times what they are in the F-16, he says, and could increase by another factor of four in a future laser-armed fighter

…The Invent power and thermal management system will extract, store and reuse electrical power and adaptively use the heat sinks available, including fuel, low-observable ram air, and heat exchangers in the engine fan duct and the “third stream” provided by the Advent engine. This is a third flowpath introduced on Advent to vary the bypass ratio.

….

In the F-35, regenerative energy from the power-by-wire flight-control actuators is dumped into heavy resistor banks, which produces heat. For Invent, AFRL is looking to develop an “electrical accumulator” that would store the energy and use it to meet peak power demands from the systems, similar to a hydraulic accumulator.

(emphasis mine)

On further thought, this is not surprising, as a cooling scoop for external air is typically a non-stealthy feature, though the degree of the problem surprises me.

It restricts time spent on the ground at idle, and increases the unusable fuel in the tanks, as it has to be used for component cooling .

Citi Dead Pool

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Well, we have the stock tanking by 25% yesterday, and Its CEO Vikram Pandit denying reports that it is looking for a buyer.

I dunno, its market cap has dropped from $274 billion to $21 billion in a couple of years, and $21 billion sounds a lot like a handful of beans.

We have reports that “non core” assets might be sold off, and there are leaks that notwithstanding Mr. Pandit protestations, that they are looking to merge with someone.

Zimbabwe

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It looks like Mugabe is going to be forming a government unilaterally. They have already sent a copy of the legislation to form the government to Thabo Mbeki, who will doubtly side with Mugabe again.

Thankfully, Mbeki is no longer South African president, because if he were, he would never have moved to withhold 300 million rand ($28 million) in Zimbabwe aid over the stalled negotiations.

That’s a positive development, and occurred only because the ANC forced Mbeki out of the presidency.

Well, This is One Way to Get Out of Debt

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It appears that the Ecuadorian debt audit commission has found serious and pervasive irregularities in the debts that it owes.

This is not surprising, foreign debt to third world nations is typically geared toward maximizing the shafting of the recipient countries, and not the niceties of western accounting:

Ecuador’s debt audit commission said it uncovered “illegality and illegitimacy” in the country’s foreign obligations, findings that may give President Rafael Correa the legal basis he’s sought to halt bond payments.

The commission said in a 172-page report that the global bonds due in 2012 and 2030 “show serious signs of illegality,” including issuance without proper government authorization. Correa, who last week withheld a $30 million interest payment on the 2012 bonds while he awaited the audit, said today that the country’s bonds due in 2015 also are marred by irregularities. He called the audit results “truly disastrous” and “conclusive.”

It appears that they are looking at filing criminal charges.

It’s likely true that the audit committee’s review is accurate. The question is whether the western banking interests can get him to knuckle under, and if not, what happens when other 3rd world nations follow Ecuador’s example look at their debt deals closely.

Switzerland?????

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According to Crooked Timber, it’s Switzerland that is the next western nation to be hit by the credit crisis:

Not only major institutions but whole national economies are up for grabs now. The national bankruptcy of Iceland seems likely to followed by something similar for Switzerland. As Citi itself points out, UBS and Credit Suisse are bigger, relative to the Swiss economy, than Kaupthing was for Iceland. Felix Salmon (also predicting doom for Citi, has been all over this).

Go read the whole article, whose main thesis is that the financial markets are heading toward either very aggressive regulation, or government ownership, or both.

But still, what hit me in the gut was the Swiss possibly being broke….That’s amazing.

I gotta go short Swiss chocolate futures.

Lies Republicans Tell

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In the (I can’t believe that I’m quoting them) New Republic, they have a very good analysis of the labor costs of the Big 3 (Big 2½), and it confirms what I have been saying, that $70/hour cost of a UAW employee is a lie, and attempts to equate the cost retirees with the current labor costs in order to attack unions.

It turns out that, after the latest round for cuts, the hourly rate and benefits for current workers are probably a bit less than the transplants.

The Big 3’s (Big 2½) labor problem is not the cost of its workforce, it’s the fact that it has been contracting its labor force for 4 decades, and management has systematically underfunded pensions, and now they find themselves in a vice.

Good News About the Iraq SOF Deal

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It appears that the deal not only rescinds immunity for mercenaries contractors, but it does so retroactively, meaning that they could be liable to stand trial in an Iraqi court for earlier actions, like shooting wildly into a crowd at a Baghdad traffic circle:

A new U.S.-Iraq security agreement doesn’t specifically prevent Iraqi officials from bringing criminal charges retroactively in cases such as the September 2007 shooting deaths of 17 Iraqi civilians by contractors protecting a State Department convoy, officials told security company officials during meetings in Washington Thursday

Good.

Hopefully this should get the mercenaries contractors out of Iraq, which would be good for both the Iraqis and our troops, who will find the Iraqi people a little bit less pissed off at Americans.

Economics Update

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Well, let’s start with where I got it really wrong, energy, where oil closed below $50/bbl, and retail gasoline prices fall below $2.00/gallon.

I was completely wrong on both counts about my predictions.

In the meantime, the credit crunch is savaging an industry highly dependent on venture capital, biotech.

In the long run, that may be a good thing, because when they aren’t making money, they aren’t lobbying Congress, which makes health care reform, at least for prescription drugs, that much easier.

In terms of the overall credit crisis, things still stink, though Calculated Risk’s Credit Crisis Indicators are neutral in terms of spreads, there has been an incredible flight to US Treasuries, driving rates down to record lows.

Of course, we could be in Europe, where both manufacturing and services are dropping like a stone, and the Euro bank Prez is telegraphing another rate cut

Succumbing to Peer Pressure

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Palin giving a post turkey pardon interview while other turkies are slaughtered behind her.

I didn’t want to post this, but the peer pressure from the liberal blogosphere proved too strong.

Damn you John Aravosis!

Truth be told, I also saw this on MSNBC Countdown, where they blurred out the nasty bits, and supplied some very amusing headlines to go along with it. (click on picture for full size)