Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Truman’s Aphorism on Phony Republicans Applies to Germans Too

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As our 33rd president of the United States once said, “When people have the choice between a real Republican and a fake Republican, they’ll choose the real thing.”

It appears that Kurt Beck, head of the German Social Democrats, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, their most likely candidate for premier in the next election, are discovering just how right Truman was.

They are unable to do anything to lower Angela Merkel’s popularity, and the party is now hemorrhaging members to the “Left Party”, created from trade unionists and the ashes of the old East German communist party.

If they have any chance of returning to power, they will necessarily have to be in coalition with the Left Party, and probably the Green Party too, but the LP would require more concessions, if the GP’s time in the coalition is any indication.

The LP would likely require a roll back of some of the anti-worker and anti-safety net policies of Shroder, which are a much bigger deal than the GP’s focus on environmental issues.

There is also a pensioner party forming to resist cutbacks in government pensions which may grab a few seats in the next elections.

Economics Update

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A number of economists have suggested that the world economy has become “decoupled”, and that a recession in the US may not cause a recession elsewhere.

If the latest information coming out of Japan is any indication, these economists are wrong, as Japan seems to be heading into a recession too, though one could argue that the 1990s Japanese recession still hasn’t fully ended.

Not surprisingly, this driven the dollar up, and it hits a 7-month high vs the Yen, ¥109.56.

In the ongoing GSE soap opera, the Treasury Department has hired Morgan Stanley to look at at the financial structure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

There was a competitive bid process to select Morgan, though I still wonder if this is prudent oversight, or the fox guarding the hen house.

In either case, I think the fact that Freddie Mac has cut dividends after posting an $821 million loss, about 3 times what was expected, was a sensible move.

Dividends are for when you make a profit.

The monoliner insurers are not a soap opera though, they are farce, and the latest case is Ambac claiming a $823.1 million profit, which appears to be entirely due to an accounting change:

Ambac, once the second-largest bond insurer, reported a $1.7 billion net loss in the first quarter after a $3.3 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2007. A rise in the risk premiums on Ambac’s own debt in the second quarter lowered the value of bond guarantees, which was allowed to be reflected as a gain under new accounting rules, resulting in the quarterly profit.

Ambac rose 35 cents, or 7.4 percent, to $5.08 at 10:08 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Ambac and other financial companies are taking advantage of the accounting standard change — intended by rulemakers to expand so-called mark-to-market accounting — to report gains when market prices for their liabilities fall.

I’d appreciate a translation from accountant-speak, but it appears to me that they are profiting from the fact that no one is willing to pay face value on the debts that they owe.

In real estate, nirtgage applications rose last week, though only a little, and the week to week numbers are, as I always remind my reader(s) noisy. It’s still way down.

In energy, oil fell on reports of increased inventories to $118.58/bbl, and
retail gasoline fell again. It’s now $0.25 off of the record, so you save two bits a gallon.

Finally, we note that when the US gets a cold, Mexico catches pneumonia, particularly in rural villages, where the economy is even more dependent on remittances.

The depressing thing is that on a per capita basis, Mexico is solidly in the middle of the world in terms of wealth, and if a bit more could be pried from the top 1-2%, everyone would do better…..But I forget…that’s socialism, so we deal with hoards of economic refugees in the US instead.

Kansas Anti-Abortion Wingnut Crushed in Primary

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Phill Kline, former Kansas Attorney General, and now District Attorney in Johnson County, just got crushed in his bid for reelection.

It appears that his efforts to file criminal complaints against Planned Parenthood, and to subpoena all their patient records have convinced Kansas voters that they want nothing to do with this butt wipe.

He hasn’t won an election since went postal on Planned Parenthood and he was defeated as Kansas AG. He was appointed as Johnson County DA, because that was the guy who won the race for AG.

Put a fork in him, Phill Kline is done.

Lawmaker Gets Constituent High-Fives for Accidentally Supporting Marijuana Legalization

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When William “Lacy” Clay, Jr. (D – MO), signed off on Barney Franks’s (D-MA) bill to decriminalize marijuana, he thought that he was supporting medical marijuana, which he has supported for years.

It turned out that Frank’s bill actually decriminalized posession of all pot in amounts less than 100g (a bit less than ¼ pound).

The response of his constituents surprised him. They were overwhelmingly supportive of decriminalizing marijuana:

Clay was worried about the reaction. Supporting the liberalization of marijuana laws is not often seen as a political winner, especially in Midwestern cities like St. Louis.

But instead of stoner jokes, derision and righteous indignation, Clay was surprised to start getting praise from complete strangers.

“People are coming up to me saying this is a common-sense, sensible way to deal with the issue of personal use,” Clay said.

So far, he said, his calls, mail and contacts are running 80-20 in favor of the bill. He was impressed enough that he decided to go ahead and step before the cameras last week with Frank and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) at a news conference touting the bill.

The only people who support throwing people in jail for a couple of joints are the business interests in the iron triangle that is the US Law Enforcement/Industrial/Prison system.

Not surprisingly, Ron Paul, who is consistent about such things, was the only Republican co-sponsor of the bill.

Hamdan Trial at Guantanamo

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The prosecution wanted the instructions to the jury changed, but withdrew the request when it was clear that this would result in a mistrial. Furthermore, the judge said that they had waited too long.

The judge instructed the jury that, in order to find him guilty on the charge of transporting the missiles, “they must find the missiles were intended for use against protected people — civilians not involved in hostilities, soldiers removed from combat by illness or capture, or religious or medical personnel.”

Since at the time of his capture, the only aircraft flying in Afghanistan were US and coalition aircraft, it seems to me that this is innocent.

The prosecution objected to this instruction, they wanted the judge to, “Tell jurors that any attempt by an ‘unlawful enemy combatant’ to kill a U.S. soldier in combat is a war crime,” which is a novel definition of a war crime, and, as the defense put it, “Then the United States committed a war crime by providing missiles to mujahideen forces who used them against the Soviet military in Afghanistan in the 1990s.” (date wrong in the article. It was the 1980s.)

These really are Kangaroo courts, and I think that the prosecutors may very well be committing a war crime, or a crime against humanity, by working under these rules.

Finally, the military managed to create this homage to Kafka:

Hamdan was allowed an hour-long phone call with his wife in Yemen on Monday evening, a Guantanamo official said. Defense attorneys said they tried to get permission for her to attend the trial but were refused on grounds that she is married to a terrorism suspect.

(emphasis mine)

We really need to prosecute the entire chain of war crimes from top to bottom when Bush and His Evil Minions™ are out of power, from the lowliest officer (the enlisted men have been prosecuted) to the very highest authority.

FBI Used Abusive Tactics That Might Have Caused Ivin’s Death

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Just lovely. It appears that he was in counseling, and was briefly hospitalized, as a direct result of abusive FBI tactics, which included pressuring his children to turn on him, telling his son that he could get the $2.5 million dollar reward and buy a sports car, and showing his daughter gruesome pictures of the Anthrax victims, and told her, “Your father did this.”

The FBI has noted his access to a lyophilyser, a freeze drying maching that, “could be used to dry wet anthrax into powder,” but would not have produced weaponized anthrax.

The output would resemble instant coffee, which would require extensive processing to become inhalable. I used to do routing maintenance on an lyophilyser in an medical lab (1982-3), and I am aware of its capabilities.

A number of his co-workers believe that the FBI singled him out because of history of alcohol problems and other problems, so they figured that they could break him.

When Does a Writer Become too Personally Repulsive to Read?

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Orson Scott Card does not raise the question for me, I read Ender’s Game, and was not particularly impressed, but he does for a lot of avid readers of SF.

His recent essay equating gay marriage with allowing blind people to drive, and suggesting a fascist state will mercilessly expose children to “te gay” will further conflict those folks who think that he doesn’t write crap, particularly when he seems to call for a revolution to promulgate anti-gay discrimination in our society.

Luckily, I find his plotting pedestrian, his characterizations flat, and his writing not particularly engaging, which is which I read Ender’s Game 20+ years ago, and haven’t read anything else of his since.

Debate Moderators Announced

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And it’s mostly the usual suspicts, which is to say at least half of them should not be doing this.

First presidential debate
Friday, September 26
The University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss.
Jim Lehrer
Executive Editor and Anchor, The NewsHour, PBS

He’s impartial, but he does not call out lies, he just has two people on with opposing view points.

Vice presidential debate
Thursday, October 2
Washington University in St. Louis, Mo.
Gwen Ifill
Senior Correspondent, The NewsHour, and Moderator and Managing Editor, Washington Week, PBS

Rumored to be Condi Rice’s girlfriend.

Second presidential debate (town meeting)
Tuesday, October 7
Belmont University, Nashville, Tenn.
Tom Brokaw
Special Correspondent, NBC News

No real comment from me.

Third presidential debate
Wednesday, October 15
Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y.
Bob Schieffer
CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent, and Host, Face the Nation

Personal friend of GW Bush, and his brother has been appointed to a couple of ambassador positions by GW Bush.

Because You Can Always Break Promises to the Little People

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So here we have an article where we see hand wringing because European governments are not being aggressive enough in reducing benefits for pensioners.

These generous pension deals were made as part of a very simple equation: The public accepted less generous wages in exchange for the pension benefits.

But now, its inconvenient for countries trying to emulate the US YOYO (You’re On Your Own) model, so they want to ignore their contract.

Shades of the big 2½ automakers, who cut the same deal in the 1960s, and now want to be releases.

It’s going to be expensive, but that was known when these deals were cut in the 1950s and 1960s.

You Know that the ISI will be There

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Pakistan is demanding consular access to Aafia Siddiqui, who is accused of trying to murder US personnel at an Afghan police station.

While it’s clear that this is their right under international treaty, my guess is that at least one of the people sent to deal with her will be an agent of the ISI, the notorious Pakistani intelligence organization, which has been linked to support for al Queida and Taliban activities, most recently the bombing of an Indian mission in Pakistan.

They will want to ensure that she knows nothing, or will say nothing, regarding any ISI involvement in her activities.