Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Head of Unscom Bio Weapons Said, Ivins Couldn’t Have Done It

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Richard Spertzel, head of the biological-weapons section of Unscom from 1994-99, nd a member of the Iraq Survey Group, wrote an Op/Ed in the Wall Street Journal that I highly recommend.

Basically, he says that Bruce Ivins, and everyone at the lab, worked on the bacteria in growth media, and did not have the equipment to make the weaponized form, which is powdered and given coatings to create a static charge to further spread the powder:

From what we know so far, Bruce Ivins, although potentially a brilliant scientist, was not that man. The multiple disciplines and technologies required to make the anthrax in this case do not exist at Army’s Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. Inhalation studies are conducted at the institute, but they are done using liquid preparations, not powdered products.

(emphasis mine)

Economics Update

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Well, the Fed held rates steady, and it appears from their statement that they will hold rates steady.

Honestly, I don’t expect any rate change now before the election. Changing the rates in September or October would lead to complaints of a political agenda.

The Index of Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses showed continuing contraction in July.

It was up to 49.5, which was above forecast, but anything under 50 is contraction.

For what it’s worth, it looks like Noriel Roubin’s prediction that hundreds of banks will fail as a result of the credit crunch is finally getting some ink at a major news service (Reuters).

I would suggest his blog to get more detail, particularly on his estimate that the Taxpayer will be on the hook for $1-$2 trillion for all this.

Both he, and I, think that the credit crunch will get a lot worse, and stories like former Merrill Lynch superstar Dow Kim shutting down his hedge fund before it started, because investors got skittish and pulled out, would seem to confirm this.

I would also note that delinquent loans are rising for commercial real estate, which indicates that the commercial real estate market is following the residential market down the drain.

In the normal indices, we see the dollar up a bit, and oil and gasoline down for another day.

Thursday, when the Euro Central Bank sets its rates, should be interesting.

Latest Bizarre Ruling in Wecht Case Overturned

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U.S. District Judge Arthur Schwab had ruled, after a mistrial was declared in the politically motivated prosecution of Cyril Wecht, that the names of the jurors names were to be kept secret from the press, though political hack US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan sent FBI agents out to intimidate them.

Well, the appeals court just overturned that, saying, that their identification was a, “well-established part of American judicial tradition.”

Background here. Short story: there were allegations that Wecht used office staff and equipment for his private practice, including 24 counts involving the amount of $3.06 (no, I’m not screwing up the decimals).

Impeachable Offense

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Ron Suskind, in his latest book, the Way of the world, says that the White House ordered that the CIA forge a back-dated letter between the head of Iraqi security and Saddam Hussein showing al Queida ties after the fall of Baghdad to deflect attention away from the lack of WMDs.

The National Security Act of 1947 specifically forbids the CIA from taking actions that have their primary intent of deceiving the American People.

So, what will happen?

Nothing.

NOT ON THE TABLE! NOT ON THE TABLE!

FBI Looking to Close Anthrax Case, but the Evidence Seems Thinner Than it Should Be

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It turns out that the evidence pointing toward Bruce Ivins was circumstantial, which does not mean invalid, but is not necessarily definitive.

At least 10 people had access to the flask that is now believed to be the source of the letters, and there is nothing tying Ivins to the postbox from which the Anthrax was mailed.

The envelopes came from post offices in Frederick, but it’s clear that the Anthrax came from Detrick, and it’s clear from the article that the FBI has been a bunch of keystone Cops on this.

What’s more, we now have a report that the White House was pressuring the FBI to finger al Queida on the Anthrax mailings.

Additionally, Glenn Greenwald has a rundown on the person who requested a restraining order against Bruce Ivins, and notes that the order is only 2 weeks old, and the application makes reference to the FBI investigation, which is odd, so I’m wondering if the FBI told her that the guy was under investigation as the Anthrax mailer, or that Ivins, who she was counseling, told her that he was under investigation, and she freaked.

I’m not saying that there is a conspiracy out there, just that the FBI really wants to close this case, and that they might still operating at a Keystone Cops level competence.

Will Belgium Split?

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There have always been tensions between the Flemish (Dutch speaking) and Walloon Belgians, and this article implies that the cultural and linguistic difference may push Belgium to a breakup.

This, and the repeated attempts by the Quebecois to secede, are very good examples of how a multilingual society is a dysfunctional society.

Without the language issue, both nations would be among the most tolerant and unified societies on earth.

McCain Campaign in the Last Throws

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John Sidney McCain’s strength has always been that the press loves him.

The press loves him because he gives them access, and he spends a lot of time sucking up to him.

Well, it now appears that the McCain campaign is restricting access to the press.

I’m not sure if they are simply unprepared, or if McCain can no longer handle the give and take, he increasingly seems confused on the campaign trail, but in either case, if the press does not grade McCain on a friendly curve, he will fail.

Economics Update

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Challenger, Gray & Christmas is reporting that planned job cuts were up 26% in July, and the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index fell to 112.1 in July, leading the board to predict that unemployment could pass 6% in 2009.

Additionally, the board noted that U6 has now topped 10%, which is probably the best metric, and closer to the one used in EU nations, for the first time in 5 years. Quoth the Wiki:

  • U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
  • U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
  • U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
  • U4: U3 + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions makes them believe that no work is available for them.
  • U5: U4 + other “marginally attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
  • U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.

In an article with a typically bad headline, we see that personal spending and income fell in July, the headline leads with non-inflation adjusted spending, and we also see that inflation has eaten up most of the tax rebate stimulus package.

So what the taxman giveth, the House of Saud taketh away.

Commodities are showing some moderation now, with copper and aluminum falling because of the economic slowdown, though there is a consensus that latter will rebound.

Energy is down too, both oil and retail gasoline, much for the same reasons.

The dollar is down slightly, but is likely to be a holding pattern until tommorow, when the Fed makes its decision on interest rates, and may not move much until Thursday, when the ECB does the same.

In banking, Citi is now losing money on credit card securitizations, where they take credit card debt and package it into securities (similar to mortgage backed securities).

When you lose money on this, the economy is not in good shape, or you are completely incompetent. In the case of Citi, probably both.

Finally, the finance unit of Chrysler was able to finance only $24 billion of the $30 billion it sought to renew, and it was at a higher cost than anticipated, which will likely make auto loans more expensive.

Knights Templar Sue Pope

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Talk about a long legal dispute!

The Association of the Sovereign Order of the Temple of Christ, which claims to be a descendant of the Knights Templar, are suing Pope Benedict over what they claim are about €100 billion in assets seized in 1307.

It appears that both Benedict and the Association of the Sovereign Order of the Temple of Christ are both moving toward the rehabilitation of the order, though I am not sure how the lawsuit would aid in this process.

The Association claims that, “Their motive is not to reclaim damages only to restore the ‘good name’ of the Knights Templar.”

Methinks that someone has watch the latest Indiana Jones movie too many times.

Bad Legislation

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Tanta has noted that, “some of the bigger economic illiterates in Congress,” have sponsored a bill to restore the Downpayment Assistance Program (DAP). (previous posts here)

Basically, it allows a seller to supply the down payment to the buyer in exchange for a higher sales price, allowing people who won’t make a down payment to get an FHA approved loan, which require a down payment.

They funnel the money through a DAP company, and all is forgiven.

The default rate on DAP loans is at least three times those with down payments.

This is something that, “builders, real estate lobbies, and DAP companies,” are lobbying for, big time.

The Congresscritters in question also do not understand insurance apparently, details at link.

Syrian Liaison to Hezbollah Assassinated

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Reports say that Brigadier General Mohammed Suleiman was shot while at his beach villa from someone in a boat.

It should be noted that he was rather more senior, and closer to Bashir Assad than his title indicated, with reports that, “His status was even more important than that of the defense minister.”

Like Assad, he was a member of Syria’s Alawite religious minority.

An unnamed Israeli official has denied involvement.

Whoever did this had to be a very impressive shot, as a rocking boat to a head shot is a non trivial bit of marksmanship.

A Tempest in a D-Cup*

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In response to concerns that underwires and other bra components might cause injury if an officer were shot while wearing a bra, underwires, and other metal plactic portions of the bra could cause physical injury, the German police have issued them to their female police officers.

They are all emblazoned with the word “police” and made from cotton, polyester, elastic and some other synthetic materials, thickly padded and with no metal or plastic studs or fasteners.

How long before they shoe up on eBay?

*No apology for the pun. It’s the entire reason I wrote the story.