Non-Existent Global Warming Strikes Again


We are completely f%$#ed


Breakup of Larsen B in 2002

An ice shelf ¼ the side of Wales is set to break off from the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica:

An iceberg expected to be one of the 10 largest ever recorded is ready to break away from Antarctica, scientists say.

A long-running rift in the Larsen C ice shelf grew suddenly in December and now just 20km of ice is keeping the 5,000 sq km piece from floating away.

Larsen C is the most northern major ice shelf in Antarctica.

Researchers based in Swansea say the loss of a piece a quarter of the size of Wales will leave the whole shelf vulnerable to future break-up.

Larsen C is about 350m thick and floats on the seas at the edge of West Antarctica, holding back the flow of glaciers that feed into it.

Researchers have been tracking the rift in Larsen C for many years, watching it with some trepidation after the collapse of Larsen A ice shelf in 1995 and the sudden break-up of the Larsen B shelf in 2002.

………

But in December the speed of the rift went into overdrive, growing by a further 18km in just a couple of weeks. What will become a massive iceberg now hangs on to the shelf by a thread just 20km long.

“If it doesn’t go in the next few months, I’ll be amazed,” project leader Prof Adrian Luckman, from Swansea University, told BBC News.

………

It is believed that climate warming has brought forward the likely separation of the iceberg but the scientists say they have no direct evidence to support this.

However, they are concerned about how any break-off will impact the rest of the ice shelf, given that its neighbour, Larsen B, disintegrated spectacularly in 2002 following a similar large calving event.

“We are convinced, although others are not, that the remaining ice shelf will be less stable than the present one,” said Prof Luckman.

“We would expect in the ensuing months to years further calving events, and maybe an eventual collapse – but it’s a very hard thing to predict, and our models say it will be less stable; not that it will immediately collapse or anything like that.”

As it floats on the sea, the resulting iceberg from the shelf will not raise sea levels. But if the shelf breaks up even more, it could result in glaciers that flow off the land behind it to speed up their passage towards the ocean. This non-floating ice would have an impact on sea levels.

According to estimates, if all the ice that the Larsen C shelf currently holds back entered the sea, global waters would rise by 10cm.

2½ inches (10 cm) may not sound like a lot, but this is just one incident.

There are dozens, if not hundreds, of similar developments around the world, and indicate that the current rate of sea level rise (1.8 mm/year) could be just a prelude.

Even the Fast Food Industry Benefits from a Higher Minimum Wage

The CEO of Wetzel’s Pretzels was rather surprised when California’s minimum wage hike boosted his profits:

When California began raising its minimum wage two years ago, Bill Phelps and his investors were worried. Phelps is CEO of a fast food company called Wetzel’s Pretzels, which has almost 100 outlets in California.

 “Like most business people I was concerned about it,” he said.

 The state increased the minimum wage in mid-2014 and just raised it again on Jan. 1 to $10.50 per hour for companies that employ more than 25 people. Smaller businesses will have a delay in implementation, but will follow suit as California moves along on its schedule to reach $15 per hour by 2022.

 Phelps and a lot of other fast food CEOs have been worried that wage increases will cut into profits, and that if they raise prices to compensate, fewer people will come eat. So two years ago, Phelps prepared to take a hit. But something else happened entirely. Sales at his California stores immediately shot up.

 “I was shocked,” Phelps says. “I was stunned by the business.”

 The same exact pattern took place again in 2016, when the minimum wage rose again, Phelps said. There was a wage increase, and then boom, a bump in same-store sales across the state that held for most of the year.

 ………

 “My overall sales were something like 15 percent ahead after the first minimum wage bump, and now they’re about 12 percent ahead this year,” Jacobs said. “It isn’t because I’m such a great manager or smart guy, but the buying public has more money in their pocket.”

 Jacobs says not only are more people coming to shop, but they’re buying more. Sure enough, as Jacobs and I talk, a mall employee stops in to buy a pretzel. He ends up also paying for a dipping sauce and a drink. Jacobs says sales like this are happening all the time.

(emphasis mine)

It’s something that liberal economists have been saying for years.

H/t Crooks and Liars.

Bad Day at the Office

Imagine if you will, you are a pilot of a B-52, it’s a lovely day, and you are on a training mission.

Then, ​an engine falls off.

On the bright side, it’s better to lose AN engine than it is to lose THE engine, but still it ain’t good:

A US Air Force B-52 bomber dropped one of its engines during a training mission over North Dakota this week, according to the service.

During a 4 January training mission from Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, the pilot declared an in-flight emergency after discovering the engine had dropped from the bomber. The mammoth Boeing aircraft, which is powered by eight Pratt & Whitney TF33 engines, landed safely without injuries to the five personnel on board, the air force says in a statement. No weapons were on board during the mission.

Minot deployed its 54th Helicopter Squadron to search for engine pieces and has located possible debris in an unpopulated area about 25nm (46km) northeast of the base, the air force says.

The B-52’s loss could mark a gain for Pratt & Whitney, which has pushed for an upgrade of the 55-year-old TF33 engines. While the air force had considered four-engine options as part of a potential upgrade programme, the service ditched the effort.

 Not a fun day for the pilot and crew, I imagine.

Linkage

2016 after a long coma: (funny and alarming at the same time)

Proving That Ayn Rand Is to Business What Ebola Is to the Exchange of Bodily Fluids

Sears, which used to have a tall building and a catalogue, is now taking a butcher knife to its own flesh, so that it can sell them to to keep the lights on:

Sears Holdings will sell its well-known Craftsman tools brand to Stanley Black & Decker, the latest in a recent flurry of moves the retailer is making to generate cash after at least five money-losing years.

 The agreement announced Thursday calls for Stanley to pay $525 million when the deal closes — expected later this year — and another $250 million after three years, the companies said. New Britain, Conn.-based Stanley will pay Sears a percentage of its new sales of Craftsman products for 15 years, and during that time, Sears will be able to continue selling Craftsman products royalty-free.

What happened over the past 5 years?

This guy:

Hoffman Estates-based Sears estimated the deal’s value could top $1 billion.
CEO Lampert remains committed to bankrolling Sears

 Sears’ stock jumped as much as 8.7% following a recent statement issued Dec. 29. (Dec. 29, 2016)

 Separately Thursday, Sears said it’s trying to raise another $1 billion by selling off real estate. On Wednesday, affiliates of the hedge fund managed by Sears’ chairman, CEO and biggest investor, Edward Lampert, lent Sears up to $500 million to fund operations while it negotiates those sales.

You see, Eddie is a big fan of Ayn Rand and her poorly written philosophy, Objectivism.

He took over Sears, and promptly implemented the prescriptions put forth by Alisa Zinov’yevna Rosenbaum, which predictably created a complete disaster: (From that Communist rag Inc. magazine)

For those in business who idealize the philosophy of Ayn Rand, maybe it’s time to forget books read during the teen years and start thinking about better ways to run a company. Put me in the same camp with Geoffrey James when it comes to saying that Ayn Rand is bad for business. Too bad for the investors in Sears that its CEO, Eddie Lampert, seems to remain a true believer.

Any person who demands the fealty of acolytes while preaching individualism is already off to a bad start with inherent contradictions. Apply the principles of Business-By-Rand and the start goes south pretty quickly.

It might be one thing to invest ruthlessly, but running a company is an entirely different occupation. That’s the possible difference between structuring the takeover of Sears by Kmart when you’re the head of a hedge fund and being the CEO. Looking out for No. 1 is a bankrupt strategy when the basics of great business require you to look out for your customers and employees. 


It’s division-eat-division out there.

Lampert has never hidden his affection for Rand and has taken actions to implement its ideas. For example, as Bloomberg reported back in 2013, he broke the company up into dozens of autonomous groups that have to compete for attention and resources. Only the strong will survive.

The problem that quickly develops in such a structure is suboptimization. It’s a term that was once used frequently, particularly during the 1990s when companies were trying to reengineer themselves into more efficient and effective organizations. In any system, there are parts that may have to perform in suboptimum ways to get the entire venture to act optimally. If you were engineering a car, for example, you wouldn’t optimize the drive train independently of braking and steering. If the car can run away from the ability to control it, you wind up with dead customers and massive lawsuits and regulatory intervention.

But with multiple executives fighting it out to get what they need, you end up running the company backward. Overall strategy takes a back seat to what individual groups can pull off. That was the problem that handicapped Microsoft in the mobile world. Windows and Office were the cash cows, and a future of the company, mobile, was left to wither. Apple and Google took away the significant market share that Microsoft once had.

This is no surprise. After the Rand is someone who wrote that the philosophy of a serial killer who strangled and dismembered a little girl, was an inspiration to her.

There is a certain symmetry here:  Lampert is doing to Sears what William Edward Hickman did to 12 year old Marion Parker.

An important political aside:  One of Rand’s biggest fans in the Congress is House Speaker Paul Ryan.

That sadistic bastard makes his staffers read Atlas Shrugged.*

*Full disclosure: I have not read Atlas Shrugged.† I see no reason to plow through a thousand pages of poorly written allegory to understand her philosophy, when I can (and did) read her actual treatise on her philosophy, The Virtue of Selfishness, which is less than 1/5th the length.‡
†Honestly, I tried to read it, but it is horrifically piss poor poor writing.
‡The Virtue of Selfishness is completely awful as well. I read it for a philosophy of literature class, and Immanuel Kant was more readable, and would probably be more readable in the original German.

Doubling Down on Failure

Speaking of Democratic Party dysfunction, the Democratic Party is building a war room to deal with the realities of a Trump administration.

They are staffing the office with refugees from the Hillary Clinton campaign:

The Democratic National Committee is building a “war room” to battle President-elect Donald Trump, pressure the new Republican administration on a variety of policy matters and train a spotlight on Russia’s alleged cyberattacks to influence the 2016 election.

The DNC’s new communications and research operation, to be staffed by former aides to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, will be one of several efforts from across the Democratic firmament to take on Trump, including the office of Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), the Center for American Progress and American Bridge.

The DNC has hired John Neffinger, a longtime operative who runs the Franklin Forum, to serve as interim communications director and oversee the national party’s operation. He will be joined by two Clinton veterans who spent the campaign focused on Trump — researching his background, monitoring his statements and trying to drive negative media coverage of his candidacy. Zac Petkanas, the Clinton campaign’s rapid-response director, will serve as a senior adviser to the DNC and direct the Trump war room, while Adrienne Watson, a Clinton campaign spokeswoman, will serve as the DNC’s national press secretary. Rounding out the team as digital director will be Tessa Simonds, who already had been at the DNC, focusing on digital organizing, state parties and down-ballot campaigns.

These people should be asking, “Do you want fries with that?” for a living.

Just kill me.

Quote of the Day

The core of the disagreement between the two factions isn’t that one side cares more about poor people than about minorities and the other side cares more about minorities than about poor people. That whole frame is wrong. Both sides, for the most part, care sufficiently about minorities and about poor people. The core of the disagreement is that one side is doing actual politics and the other side is doing cultural criticism but thinks it’s doing politics.

—jamalabd on Reddit

They follow up with:

Here’s the key point: bougie wokeness liberals and minority voters share distinct desires when it comes to identity politics. If you want to use identity politics to appeal to black voters in Milwaukee or Arab-American voters in the Detroit suburbs or Hispanic voters in the Phoenix metro you’re going to need to speak very differently from how you would if you wanted to use identity politics to appeal to Oberlin students. But wokeness liberals consistently pretend that their identity politics demands are identical to those of minority voters: they speak on behalf of minority voters without really representing them. Sometimes the two forms of identity politics will overlap, but oftentimes they won’t.

Apologies to my sister-in-law, who is an Oberlin grad, but this is a must read.

H/t Naked Capitalism

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

Amid all the claims of who hacked the DNC and why, we now discover that the FBI NEVER requested access to the DNC servers:

The FBI did not examine the servers of the Democratic National Committee before issuing a report attributing the sweeping cyberintrusion to Russia-backed hackers, BuzzFeed News has learned.

Six months after the FBI first said it was investigating the hack of the Democratic National Committee’s computer network, the bureau has still not requested access to the hacked servers, a DNC spokesman said. No US government entity has run an independent forensic analysis on the system, one US intelligence official told BuzzFeed News.

“The DNC had several meetings with representatives of the FBI’s Cyber Division and its Washington (DC) Field Office, the Department of Justice’s National Security Division, and U.S. Attorney’s Offices, and it responded to a variety of requests for cooperation, but the FBI never requested access to the DNC’s computer servers,” Eric Walker, the DNC’s deputy communications director, told BuzzFeed News in an email.

The FBI has instead relied on computer forensics from a third-party tech security company, CrowdStrike, which first determined in March of last year that the DNC’s servers had been infiltrated by Russia-linked hackers, the U.S. intelligence official told BuzzFeed News.

“CrowdStrike is pretty good. There’s no reason to believe that anything that they have concluded is not accurate,” the intelligence official said, adding they were confident Russia was behind the widespread hacks.

(emphasis original)

Crowdstrike was hired by the DNC.

If it was the Rooshans, then it isn’t their fault, and CrowdStrike was hired by the Democratic Party Nomenklatura whose heads were on the chopping block in the event of any sort of (very) well deserved house cleaning for the utter incompetence o n display.

You know that the Russian angle was pushed by the DNC in discussions with CrowdStrike, and as the Golden Rule says, at least according to Johnny Hart, is, “Whoever has the gold, makes the rules.”

The Glory of the US Medical Industrial Complex


Click for full size
Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Our healthcare system under-performs by any sane measure of efficiency or outcomes:

Historically, the United States has spent more money than any other country on healthcare.

In the late 1990s, for example, the U.S. spent roughly 13% of GDP on healthcare, compared to about a 9.5% average for all high income countries.

However, in recent years, the difference has become more stark. Last year, as Obamacare continued to roll out, costs in the U.S. reached an all-time high of 17.5% of GDP. That’s over $3 trillion spent on healthcare annually, and the rate of spending is expected accelerate over the next decade.

………

Today’s chart comes to us from economist Max Roser (h/t @NinjaEconomics) and it shows the extreme divergence of the U.S. healthcare system using two simple stats: life expectancy vs. health expenditures per capita.

………

Not only is U.S. healthcare spending wildly inefficient, but it’s also relatively ineffective. It would be one thing to spend more money and get the same results, but according to the above data that is not true. In fact, Americans on average will have shorter lives people in other high income countries.

Life expectancy in the U.S. has nearly flatlined, and it hasn’t yet crossed the 80 year threshold. Meanwhile, Chileans, Greeks, and Israelis are all outliving their American counterparts for a fraction of the associated costs.

For any improvements that Obamacare has made to the medical situation, we still have narrow networks, balance billing, and a system where it is literally impossible to avoid being charged for out of network services, all the things that prevent people from seeking help except when the situation is dire.

Then again, Obama is getting lots of funding for his presidential library and his foundation from Wall Street and health insurance types, so I guess it all works out for him.

Just imagine what he could have netted if he had gotten the TPP through.  That library would have gold plated bidets in its executive offices.

H/t The Big Picture

Don’t Let the Door Hit Your Butt on the Way out, Shyster………

Alan Dershowitz has drawn a red line, and said that, “If Keith Ellison is appointed DNC chair, I will resign my membership.”

A couple of things here:

  • Keith Ellison can’t be appointed DNC chair, he can only be elected DNC chair.
  • You cannot resign your membership, you have none.  You can only change your party registration, and I for one would welcome your not voting in the primaries.
  • You advocated for judicially authorized torture.  You have forever ceded anything resembling the moral high ground on any matter.

Please, just leave.

(Apologies for the Fox Business News Channel link, but this is where he said it.)

The Internet of Things Will Spy on You

It turns out that cops are subpoenaing data from various devices that listen to you for criminal investigations:

“Doorbells that connect directly to apps on a user’s phone can show who has rung the door and the owner or others may then remotely,m if they choose, to give controlled access to the premises while away from the property.

 “All these leave a log and a trace of activity. The crime scene of tomorrow is going to be the internet of things.”

 ………

 Mr Stokes said detectives of the future would carry a ‘digital forensics toolkit’ which would allow them to analyse microchips and download data at the scene, rather than removing devices for testing.

 ………

 In the US, Amazon is currently fighting requests by the US authorities to hand over recordings from one of its Echo home entertainment systems belonging to James Andrew Bates.

 Officers in Arkansas are investigating the murder of Victor Collins who was found dead at Mr Bates’ hot tub in 2015. They have already taken evidence from an electric water meter, which appears to show that a huge amount of water was used. Detectives say it could have been to wash blood away from the patio.

First, it will be murder, then it will be tax evasion, then it will be unpatriotic thoughts.

BTW, put tape over your laptop’s camera as well when you are not using them.

The Fake News Problem at 1301 K Street NW


The Original Hed

Friday night, the US State Security Apparatus’ favorite outlet for fake news, the Washington Post unleashed a bombshell, that Russia had hacked into Vermont’s power grid.

It was a real bombshell.

The only problem was that it was not even remotely true, and within 48 hours, the Post issued a mealy mouthed retraction:

Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said that Russian hackers had penetrated the U.S. electric grid. Authorities say there is no indication of that so far. The computer at Burlington Electric that was hacked was not attached to the grid.

They also changed the headline to read, “Russian operation hacked a Vermont utility, showing risk to U.S. electrical grid security, officials say.”

Malware was found on a single laptop, and the malware is publicly available, and written by Ukrainians.  (It’s also an old version of the software.

The Post wrote a followup article, which led with, “As federal officials investigate suspicious Internet activity found last week on a Vermont utility computer, they are finding evidence that the incident is not linked to any Russian government effort to target or hack the utility, according to experts and officials close to the investigation.”

Forbes unleashed a can of whup ass on the WaPo as well.

I’ve not looked at the physical paper, but my guess is that it was not on the front page.

Someone’s laptop was surfing with its shields down, and it got hacked.

Some people in Congress and/or the White House then sold it as the end of the world.

As Marcy Wheeler pithily notes, “Some of these security professionals are the same ones who’ve been saying for months that the DNC hack can be reliably attributed to the Russian state.

This sort of hysteria undercuts the credibility of our cyber experts and the narrative that they are pushing.

This is a Direct Consequence of Turkey’s Support of Daesh

Over 30 people were killed in a terrorist attack of an Istanbul night club:

The manhunt continues for a gunman who killed 39 people in an Istanbul nightclub as Turkey marked the start of the new year.

The unknown assailant opened fire at Reina nightclub early on Sunday, before managing to flee amid the chaos.

The motive for the attack is not clear, but suspicion has fallen on the Islamic State group, already linked to at least two terror attacks in Turkey last year.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said such groups tried “to create chaos”.

I would argue that they are not trying to, “Create chaos,” they are exploiting the chaos that Erdogan created in Syria through tacit and explicit support of Salafist fighters in his attempt to depose Assad.

This sort of sh%$ always comes back to bite you in the ass.

In Some Ways, India Is Very Much Like the Us

It appears that in response to advance notice of speeches by Indian PM Narendra Modi bars are scrambling to come up with drinking games:

India’s teetotaler Prime Minister Narendra Modi almost fueled a booze binge on New Year’s eve in the nation’s cities.

 As his scheduled speech drew nearer, pubs announced Modi-themed drinking games while Indians sought solace through social media humor. The last time Modi had addressed the nation, on Nov. 8, it had ended with him canceling 86 percent of currency in circulation and unleashing chaos in a country where almost all consumer payments are made in cash.

 Modi had likened the move to a bitter medicine to help cure tax evasion and graft. Many saw it differently.

 “Come get a drink on us,” pub chain Social, which has 15 outlets across the nation, announced on Facebook. “If we’re going down, we’re going down together.”

 ‘Mitron’

 Social offered a pint of beer or an alcohol shot for 31 rupees ($0.5) each time Modi uttered “mitron,” which means friends in Hindi. That compares with 85 rupees for a pint of Kingfisher beer it normally charges customers. Mobile wallet company Mobikwik — backed by Sequoia Capital — promised lucky users a 100 percent cashback.

I think that Donald Trump, another teetotaler, will be a similar inspiration for bars in the United States.

On the other hand the recent ruling by India’s Supreme Court banning overtures to religion and caste by political candidates is something unimaginable in the us.

Hell, such a ruling would effectively outlaw the Republican Party:

The Supreme Court on Monday ruled that politicians cannot seek votes on the grounds of caste, creed or religion.

The landmark judgment came while the court revisited earlier judgments, including one from 1995 that equated Hindutva with Hinduism and called it a “way of life” and said a candidate was not necessarily violating the law if votes were sought on this plank.

Several petitions filed over the years have challenged the consequences of that verdict. “It is a fallacy and an error of law to proceed on the assumption that any reference to Hindutva or Hinduism in a speech makes it automatically a speech based on Hindu religion as opposed to other religions … (Hindutva and Hinduism) are used in a speech to emphasise the way of life of the Indian people and the Indian cultural ethos,” the 1995 judgment authored by Justice J.S. Verma had said.

In its decision on Monday, a seven-judge constitution bench of the court ruled that the relationship between man and God is an ‘individual choice’ and the state cannot interfere in it, Economic Times reported. It added that an election is a secular exercise, and that should be reflected in the process that is followed.

Four judges of the seven-judge bench headed by Chief Justice T.S. Thakur (who retires on Tuesday) ruled that “the constitution forbids state from mixing religion with politics”, Livemint reported. While Thakur and justices Madan B. Lokur, S.A. Bobde, and L. Nageswara Rao formed the majority and hence gave the ruling, the other three judges – Adarsh Kumar Goel, U.U. Lalit and D.Y. Chandrachud – dissented and said that the matter must be left to parliament.

I have mixed emotions on this one, I tend to be absolutist on free speech issues, but the fact that this kneecaps the Indian Fascist party (BJP) is a positive outcome.

Bank Failure Summaries for the Year

So, there were 5 commercial bank failures, and 15 credit union failures this year, which I have dutifully documented on the oft late “Bank Failure Friday” posts.

This compares to 2015’s 8 bank failures and 12 credit union failures.

I am not clear as to why commercial bank numbers went down, and credit union failures went up, though the fact that credit unions are less amenable to the consolidation that has occurred in the commercial bank industry.

The TBTF banks have swallowed up a lot of the commercial bank industry.

About F%$#ing Time

It looks like after about a 30 year run, people are beginning to realize that hedge funds are basically a scam:

………

In Trump, Mercer and his fellow hedge funders had much to extol. Tapping into the wealth he amassed at his wildly profitable firm, Renaissance Technologies, Mercer and his daughter Rebekah (dressed that evening in Black Widow leather) had helped vault Trump to the American presidency. Trump, more than any other president-elect, has sought out hedge fund types, from Steven Mnuchin, his choice for Treasury, to David McCormick, a leading contender at Defense, heralding a new lucrative era for American finance.

But Trump or no Trump, this year marked the beginning of the end of hedge funds as we’ve known them. Their investors are joining a growing revolt, spurred by years in which fund managers grew rich while producing little in the way of returns. In 2016, big money clients finally decided to bail. “Let them sell their summer homes and jets and return those fees to investors,” one New York City official said in a nod to the populist wave that swept Trump into the presidency.

“There has been a massive blowback from public pension funds and private endowments,’’ said Craig Effron, who co-founded his Scoggin Capital Management nearly 30 years ago. An investor told him recently that many chief investment officers are so fed up that they would prefer to entrust their cash to a trader who charged no management fee, over one who did, even if they expected the latter to make them more money.

Public retirement plans from Kentucky to New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island have decided to pull money from hedge funds. So did a state university in Maryland and other endowments. MetLife Inc. and other insurers followed suit. Money-losing firms were forced to reduce their fees. Client withdrawals ($53 billion in the last four quarters) drove some managers out of business, including veteran Richard Perry, who until recently had managed one of the longest-standing and better-performing firms.

Hedge funds largely traded on regulatory arbitrage, using a limited membership to skirt regulatory attention, and in the early days, they achieved impressive returns by exploiting what they called “Market Inefficiencies”. (People would call it insider trading, burning businesses down for the insurance money, and front running)

Over the past 30 years, the number of firms have grown, so there are more firms chasing returns, and since the financial crisis there has been more supervision, so their fees, typically 2% of assets under management plus 20% of any gains, have increasingly been seen as excessive, particularly since there have been given stories in the financial and mainstream media about how their opaque structure has led to a lot of self dealing.