Tag: Economy

Historical Tweet of the Day

Картелизация, монополизация во всех секторах экономики, приход банковского капитала во все сферы, от телевидения до ритейла, вывоз капитала и использование наемников для его защиты – это, конечно, совсем не то, о чем В.И.Ленин писал в своей давно потерявшей актуальность брошюре. pic.twitter.com/SEic3Ym7nN

— Константин Семин (@KSyomin) March 27, 2019

The translation reads:

Cartelization, monopolization in all sectors of the economy, the arrival of bank capital in all areas, from television to retail, the export of capital and the use of mercenaries to protect it – this, of course, is not at all what Lenin wrote about in his long-lost relevance brochure.

This reminds me of a joke in Russia from the 1990s, “Everything the Soviets ever told us about Communism was a lie. Unfortunately, everything they told us about capitalism was true.”

Portugal’s Solution to Right Wing Populism

Portugal’s solution is much like Iceland’s solution.

Specifically, they have eschewed German economics and German austerity, and instead have chosen to build up their society, and their societal protections:

Considering the booming economy, dropping unemployment numbers and the return of many once-emigrated young Portuguese citizens, it seems Portugal is on the rise. Facing the policies of socialist Prime Minister António Costa, which include properly supporting the welfare state and investing in the public sector instead of austerity measures, right wing populists don’t stand a chance.

Not too long ago, Portugal stood on the brink of catastrophe: harsh austerity policies and the erosion of labour rights pushed by the conservative government lead to significant rises in poverty and unemployment. The economy dwindled due to the lack of peoples’ spending power.

Today, everything has changed:

“Nowadays, Portugal is considered a prime example among European countries: the economy is booming, unemployment is dropping and investments are rising.”


………

The first major change occurred during the general election 2015. This was time when the right wing conservative government dismantled the social welfare state piece by piece, which resulted in a furious population voicing their dissatisfaction in the voting booth – causing the conservatives to lose 11 percent of their previous electoral votes.

………

Costa succeeded in uniting the severely split left wing in Portugal, who now support the minority government led by him. At first, observers were pessimistic about the potential of this constellation, predicting a collapse after a few months. Moreover, both the EU and German minister of finances saw a grave mistake in the departure from austerity.

Angela Merkel described the prospect of a radical anti-austerity coalition in Portugal as “very negative”. The president of Portugal went further, calling non-conservative economic policies a “danger to national security” and attempting to keep the old government in power.

………

The Portuguese economy has been booming for 4 years. 2017 marked the largest national economic growth of the century.

The Portuguese are not only showing the feasibility of socially conscious policies, but demonstrating the significant potential for success.

“The budget deficit has dropped to its lowest ever since the change to a democratic system in 1974 – simply because the government re-established and strengthened the social welfare state, leading to the Portuguese people having more money to spend.”

The socialists raised the once slashed wages and pensions, reintroduced paid vacations and retracted many tax raises, all while raising wealth taxes which affect only the rich parts of the population. The government also introduced a property and real estate tax designed not to target the homes of average citizens. Costa’s socialists also put an end to the catastrophic privatizations that were once instructed by the EU and resulted in selling state assets at absurdly low prices.

The Germans have been f%$#ing up Europe with their need to run things since 1914.

Not Good

The New York Fed just released a report revealing that car loan delinquencies have hit an all time high.

What is significant is that, yet again, the current expansion has been driven by consumer credit, and consumers look to be coming to the end of their string:

Millions of Americans are struggling with their car payments, and even economists are surprised.

According to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, more than 7 million Americans have reached serious delinquency status on their auto loans, meaning they’re at least 90 days behind on payments.

Fed economists said this is “surprising” considering a strengthening labor market and economy.

People often prioritize car loans because many need to drive to get to work and earn a paycheck, The Washington Post’s Heather Long reported. The fact that a record number of Americans aren’t making those payments is “usually a sign of significant duress among low-income and working-class Americans,” Long wrote.

“The substantial and growing number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefitted from the strong labor market and warrants continued monitoring and analysis of this sector,” Fed economists wrote in a blog post dissecting the report.

This is supposed to be a historically strong economy, and people cannot keep up their car payments after decades of cut-backs to mass transit.

This will not be pretty.

Perspective on the Unemployment Numbers

It doesn’t feel like historically low unemployment, and one of the reasons why is that involuntary part-time work is also at an all time high, and the standard U-3 measure does not count them:

Britain just notched up yet another record-breaking low for unemployment, according to the government. Unemployment stayed at just 4%, while the number of people with jobs rose to 32.54 million, or 75.8%, “the highest since comparable estimates began in 1971,” according to the UK’s Office for National Statistics.

But once again, the monthly jobs tally eclipsed how that miracle was achieved. “Headline” unemployment is only at a record low because of a 42% increase in the number of people who are in “involuntary” part-time work.

“Involuntary” means they’re only working part-time because they cannot get a full-time job.  

In March 2006, at the peak of the economic boom that preceded the great financial crisis, involuntary part-time work was at a low of 620,000. It rose to a peak after the 2008 crisis. But today, after 10 years of economic growth, it has settled back to 881,000 — an increase of 42% over the period, according to the ONS.

This is not good news.

Four percent unemployment is technically “full employment.” Anyone who wants a job should be able to get one. But 881,000 workers need full-time jobs — the kind that get people out of poverty — and those jobs are not available.

I have a feeling that this is a feature, not a bug.

The politicians get to crow about success, and the captains of industry still don’t have to pay a fair wage.

Have a Nice Glass of Shut the F%$# Up, Alan

After nearly blowing up the world 10 years ago, Alan Greenspan seems to think that there are still people who give a crap what he thinks:

Raising the marginal tax rate on the richest Americans to 70 percent would put a major dent in the economy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday.

During an interview with the CBS program “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday, freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposed that such a levy be imposed to pay for what she calls a “Green New Deal” to slash carbon emissions and ultimately wean the U.S. off its reliance on fossil fuels.

The tax would apply to those earning more than $10 million a year, a group that currently pays the top marginal tax rate of 37 percent.

Without getting into the details, Greenspan said the move would have dire consequences.

………

When it comes to taxes, Greenspan said the measure passed in 2017 “was an excellent tax cut” though Congress failed to come up with a way to pay for it. He noted that the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal 2018 is likely to hit $1 trillion due in large part to entitlement burdens that lawmakers have not addressed.

It appears that Ayn Rand’s biggest fan doesn’t give a sh%$ about deficits unless there is a possibility that they might help poor people.

This is a man whose take on financial fraud was that the market would take of the problem.

Please, Alan Greenspan, shut the F%$# Up.

The Costs of a Military Establishment

Costa Rica abolished its military in 1949.

A major has now shown that this is associated with a 0.8% annual increase in per capita GDP:

This article estimates the causal long-term developmental effects of Costa Rica’s constitutional abolishment of its army in 1949 after the 1948 civil war.

This is done by performing synthetic control estimates and analyzing the political history of Costa Rica in the 1940s and 1950s. We find that upon the abolishment of the army, Costa Rica’s annual average per capita GDP growth increased from 1.42% to 2.28% in the 1950-2010 period relative to a counterfactual Costa Rica that did not abolish its army. This implies that Costa Rica doubled its per capita GDP every 30 years rather than every 49. These estimates are robust to different model specifications and we show that this shock is exclusive to Costa Rica in Latin America. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the positive effects associated with this increase in the per capita GDP growth rates have endured over time; namely because the abolition of the army granted a political and institutional context that allowed the country to devote more resources to public spending, which in turn contributed to its long run development. Our case study findings are evidence that committing to peace and democracy pays off in the long run.

Running the numbers, this means that Costa Rica’s per capita GDP is 75% larger than what it would have been with a military.

Obviously a part of this difference is because the resources of Costa Rica have not been diverted from other purposes.

To quote Dwight Eisenhower, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.”

Another reason for this is that the presence of a military in Latin America has led to repeated coups against military governments, and repeated insurgencies as a result, which are likely even more disruptive to the well-being of the nation.  (Google the School of the Americas to better understand how this was largely an artifact of US Policy)

They Have Learned Nothing, and They Have Forgotten Nothing

It appears that mainstream economists are still refusing to learn the lessons of the Great Depression.

They continue to insist that the solution to any economics problem is to make ordinary people poorer, and their lives more precarious:

A couple of years ago yours truly had a discussion with the chairman of the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences (yes, the one that yearly presents the winners of ‘The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel’). What started the discussion was the allegation that the level of employment in the long run is a result of people’s own rational intertemporal choices and that how much people work basically is a question of incentives.

Somehow the argument sounded familiar.

When being awarded the ‘Nobel prize’ in 2011, Thomas Sargent declared that workers ought to be prepared for having low unemployment compensations in order to get the right incentives to search for jobs. The Swedish right-wing finance minister at the time appreciated Sargent’s statement and declared it to be a “healthy warning” for those who wanted to increase compensation levels.

The view is symptomatic. As in the 1930s, more and more right-wing politicians — and economists — now suggest that lowering wages is the right medicine to strengthen the competitiveness of their faltering economies, get the economy going, increase employment and create growth that will get rid of towering debts and create balance in the state budgets.

But, intimating that one could solve economic problems by wage cuts and impairing unemployment compensations, in these dire times, should really be taken more as a sign of how low the confidence in our economic system has sunk. Wage cuts and lower unemployment compensation levels do not save neither competitiveness nor jobs.

………

It’s an atomistic fallacy to think that a policy of general wage cuts would strengthen the economy. On the contrary. The aggregate effects of wage cuts would, as shown by Keynes, be catastrophic . They would start a cumulative spiral of lower prices that would make the real debts of individuals and firms increase since the nominal debts wouldn’t be affected by the general price and wage decrease. In an economy that more and more has come to rest on increased debt and borrowing this would be the entrance-gate to a debt deflation crises with decreasing investments and higher unemployment. In short, it would make depression knock on the door.

They are SO like the Bourbon Kings.

They Have Made a Desert, and Called it Peace

Latvia is presented as an EU success story.

Despite an economic downturn, they stabilized their finances, and entered the Euro.

What they neglect to mention is that nearly ⅕ of its population has left, and their remittances, largely from the soon to be leaving Britain, are the only thing keeping their economy afloat:

Atis Sjanits has an unusual remit for an ambassador. The Latvian diplomat is not responsible for relations with another nation — but with his own country’s diaspora.

Sjanits’ job is to respond to the exodus triggered by Latvia’s accession to the EU. Since joining the bloc, nearly a fifth of the nation has left to work in more affluent EU nations: The U.K., Ireland, Germany.

In 2000, Latvia’s population stood at 2.38 million. At the start of this year, it was 1.95 million. No other country has had a more precipitous fall in population — 18.2 percent according to U.N. statistics. Only Latvia’s similarly fast-shriveling neighbor, Lithuania, with a 17.5 percent decrease, and Georgia, with a 17.2 percent drop, come close.

Seriously, the fact that Latvia is considered a success by Brussels when it has become unlivable that 18.2% of its population have effectively become refugees positively boggles the mind.

Understanding the Yellow Vest Movement

We can talk about what is, and is not, causing this phenomenon, but at its core, it boils down to this statement, “France’s Gas Tax Disaster Shows We Can’t Save Earth by Screwing Over Poor People.”

French President Emanuel Macron has been cutting taxes on the rich, and raising taxes on everyone else, ever since entering office.

This is a well deserved smack-down of an investment banker who has seen his role as making life easier for other investment bankers.

Well, Duh!

It appears that President of the Minneapolis Fed actually understands economics 101.

Neel Kashkari is suggesting that firms complaining about worker shortages should try paying more to get more of this currently scarce resource:

Companies should try digging in their pockets if they’re looking to find workers for unfilled jobs, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday.

With the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in 49 years, there are nearly 1 million more job openings than available workers, according to the Labor Department. Even though payrolls have been growing at a solid clip, complaints persist from companies that they are having a hard time finding qualified workers to fill positions because of a skills gap.

Kashkari, though, said he doesn’t completely buy the argument that there aren’t enough bodies out there.

“I oftentimes hear businesses saying I just can’t find the workers that I need,” the central bank official said during a conference on immigration in his home district. “Now, I’m not entirely sympathetic with that view, because I’ve been saying you should try paying more, and you may be able to attract more workers.”

This is literally the first time that I’ve ever heard a mainstream economist acknowledge this basic fact.

Iceland, and Now Portugal

Portland has eschewed the confidence fairy, and austerity, and their economy is going gangbusters:

Ramón Rivera had barely gotten his olive oil business started in the sun-swept Alentejo region of Portugal when Europe’s debt crisis struck. The economy crumbled, wages were cut, and unemployment doubled. The government in Lisbon had to accept a humiliating international bailout.

But as the misery deepened, Portugal took a daring stand: In 2015, it cast aside the harshest austerity measures its European creditors had imposed, igniting a virtuous cycle that put its economy back on a path to growth. The country reversed cuts to wages, pensions and social security, and offered incentives to businesses.

The government’s U-turn, and willingness to spend, had a powerful effect. Creditors railed against the move, but the gloom that had gripped the nation through years of belt-tightening began to lift. Business confidence rebounded. Production and exports began to take off — including at Mr. Rivera’s olive groves.

“We had faith that Portugal would come out of the crisis,” said Mr. Rivera, the general manager of Elaia. The company focused on state-of-the-art harvesting technology, and it is now one of Portugal’s biggest olive oil producers. “We saw that this was the best place in the world to invest.”

At a time of mounting uncertainty in Europe, Portugal has defied critics who have insisted on austerity as the answer to the Continent’s economic and financial crisis. While countries from Greece to Ireland — and for a stretch, Portugal itself — toed the line, Lisbon resisted, helping to stoke a revival that drove economic growth last year to its highest level in a decade.

The EU is dominated by Germans, and German economic philosophy, which has not changed since their disastrous policies during the Great Depression, which created the most brutal economic downturn in all of Europe and rise of the Nazis.

Here’s hoping that Merkel’s successor doesn’t stake their political career on inflicting pointless misery on fellow EU members the way that she did.

Economists Discover the Obvious

Economists are now (begrudgingly) announcing that Seattle’s $15/hour minimum wage did not cause an apocalypse, and that, in fact, it benefited the poorest workers in the city:

Earlier this year, a group of business school researchers from the University of Washington and NYU, as well as Amazon, published an influential paper claiming that the rising Seattle minimum wage had decreased take-home pay for workers by 6% due to cuts to work hours — the paper was trumpeted by right-wing ideologues as examples of how “liberal policies” hurt the workers they are meant to help.

But a new paper by the same authors (Sci-Hub mirror) shows that the rising minimum wage generated major increases for the workers who had the most hours, whose hours were only cut a little, but still came out ahead thanks to the wage increase; workers with fewer hours saw no financial harm from the rising minimum wage, working fewer hours and bringing home the same sum; and they found some harm to people who had the smallest number of hours) (which may actually reflect stronger demand for workers and fewer workers in this category of very-low-hour work).

Oopsie.

Tweet of the Day

Many liberals today get so angry when you point out that our bad economy is a major contributor to the rise of the far right. But here’s a 2009 report from Obama’s Department of Homeland Security making that exact point. pic.twitter.com/ykqgSoLX5e

— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) October 28, 2018

Silly rabbit, don’t you know, it’s the Russians, or maybe, it was the fault of those damn Eskimos!

Francisco Franco is as Francisco Franco Does

One of the narratives regarding the conflict between Madrid and Barcelona over Catalan independence and autonomy is that the independence movement chased away finance and created a capital flight.

It turns out that the Rajoy government aggressively pushed the companies to leave Catalonia.

It’s not a surprise,  Mariano Rajoy’s “People’s Party” is pretty much a direct descendant of Franco’s Fascist (Falange) party, and the Falange was dedicated to grinding everything Catalan into dust:

Just over a year has passed since over two million people in Catalonia voted in a banned referendum to leave Spain. On that day, the separatists were given a brutal lesson in the raw power of state violence. Days later, they were given another harsh lesson, this time in the fickleness of money. Within days of holding the vote, which was brutally suppressed but not prevented by Spanish police, Spain’s north eastern region was forced to watch as one after another of its brand names moved their headquarters, at least on paper, to other parts of Spain.

………

But what is only now becoming clear is just how central a role the Spanish government in Madrid was playing in fomenting this massive exodus of funds. The Catalan newspaper Ara has revealed that large state-owned companies such as public broadcaster RTVE, rail infrastructure manager Adif, freight and passenger train operator RENFE and Spanish ports, on the behest of Spain’s central government, raided their own accounts in Catalonia during the frenzied days immediately after the referendum.

In one day alone, the state-owned companies withdrew €2 billion from Banco Sabadell. The presidents of these state-owned companies apparently told the bank’s CEO, Jaume Guardiola, that they had received orders to trigger a run on deposits. As much as a third of all the money that left Catalonia during those first days of October belonged to institutions or companies controlled by the State.

The covert ploy worked like a charm. In the short space of just a few days Banco Sabadell suffered a deposit outflow of €12 billion, while Caixabank lost almost double that, according to Ara.

Another senior executive at Banco Sabadell allegedly asked Spain’s then-Economy Minister Luis de Guindos about the apparent cause of the bank run, to which he received the response: “Have you changed your company address yet?” When the executive answered in the affirmative, the minister said there was no longer any reason to worry. Within hours, the deposits of the state-owned firms were back in their accounts.

In the long run, Rajoy ended up worsening the divisions between Barcelona and Madrid, with the spectacle of police officers in body armor beating up elderly ladies.

The smart move would have been to allow the independence forces to fall into a morass of back-biting and corruption, but the dynamics of the People’s Party were such that they had to respond with brutality.
He really had no 

This is Not the Resource Curse

One of the perplexing questions of modern society is how the discovery of riches, particularly things like oil and diamonds, can make a country less well off. (the “resource curse”)

So now we have people wondering why the outsized role of finance in the UK does not create prosperity.

This one is pretty easy:  Finance is not wealth you dig up from the ground, and it is not meaningful productivity, though it can help getting actors with capital in touch with actors who need capital.

It produces nothing, and when it dominates an economy, as it does in the UK, it is actually highly parasitic.

No one asks why bank robbers don’t benefit society, and as William Black has noted, “The best way to rob a bank is to own one.”

To argue that the City hurts Britain’s economy might seem crazy. But research increasingly shows that all the money swirling around our oversized financial sector may actually be making us collectively poorer. As Britain’s economy has steadily become re-engineered towards serving finance, other parts of the economy have struggled to survive in its shadow, like seedlings starved of light and water under the canopy of a giant, deep-rooted and invasive tree. Generations of leaders from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair to Theresa May have believed that the City is the goose that lays Britain’s golden eggs, to be prioritised, pampered and protected. But the finance curse analysis shows an oversized City to be a different bird: a cuckoo in the nest, crowding out other sectors.

I would also note the the international finance sector has much to do with creating the “resource curse” in places like Angola, where they finance grandiose projects, launder money, and foment destructive speculation.

Why would they do anything different in the City of London than they do in Luanda?

Unfortunately, modern politicians want to negotiate with them, which makes as much sense as negotiating with a tapeworm.

If Only there Were Some Sort of Token Representing Value that Could Restore Balance

It turns out that that there has been a exodus of pilots from business aviation, which is now depressing aircraft sales.

The solution is simple: If you want more pilots, pay more for them. Supply will then take care of itself:

A growing shortage of pilots in Europe is hitting business aircraft sales, as owners struggle to source crews to fly their assets.

That is the view of UK aircraft sales and marketing company Colibri Aircraft, which predicts the squeeze on business aircraft pilots will continue over the coming years, as commercial airlines poach crews in increasing numbers to help address their recruitment demands.

Colibri says around 70% of sales it works on encounter difficulties in relation to guaranteeing sufficient access to flightcrews. “Five years ago, this affected only 20% of our cases,” it notes.

………

This shortfall is a combination of several factors, he explains, including the legal retirement age for pilots being set at 65, and growing demand for pilots from overseas markets – especially Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

Really, the solution is simple: Pay your pilots more, and they stay with you.

Econ 101.

Also, Not a Surprise

The minimum wage increases that started four years ago in SeaTac are spreading across the country, but economists continue to study – and disagree about – the impact of the new policies on pay and jobs.

The latest look at increased wage floors in six U.S. cities, including Seattle, finds that food-service workers saw increases in pay and no widespread job losses. That reinforces the conclusions that the same group of University of California, Berkeley, researchers reached in 2017 after studying the impact just in Seattle.

This time, the Berkeley researchers examined Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose, Chicago and Washington, D.C., where minimum wages at the end of 2016 – the end of the study period – ranged from $10 to $13.

“We find that they are working just as the policymakers and voters who enacted these policies intended,” said Sylvia Allegretto, co-author of the report and co-chair of Berkeley’s Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics. “So far they are raising the earnings of low-wage workers without causing significant employment losses.”

This is the latest in a series of studies showing the same effects, but it won’t change the minds of the Freshwater (conservative) economists, because they are even more impervious to reality than the economics field as a whole.

Another Refugee Flow

Americans who move to Europe for a free college education:

Chelsea Workman went to Ohio State University because it was her cheapest option. But she still had to take out student loans and work to make ends meet.

By the middle of her sophomore year, she’d had enough. She dropped out and moved to Germany to finish her degree where college is free.

Hunter Newsome, from California, decided to go to college in Estonia rather than the University of California, Davis — at the very last minute. He’s saving more than $10,000 a year on tuition, and he’ll earn a bachelor’s degree in three years rather than four.

There are at least 44 schools across Europe where Americans can earn their bachelor’s degree for free, according to Jennifer Viemont, the founder of an advising service called Beyond The States.

All public colleges in Germany, Iceland, Norway and Finland are free for residents and international students. And some private schools in the European Union don’t charge for tuition either. Many are going out of their way to attract foreigners by offering programs taught entirely in English.

This does not apply the UK, so you would need to learn a foreign language, even if the school offers an English only curriculum, but it sure beats debt peonage so that some assistant to the assistant to the college president can pull in $150K/year.