Month: October 2007

Housing Crash: Ohhh!!!! Look at the Pretty Pictures

Calculated Risk has the following pictures:


The total number of California notices of default


And these are notices of default as a percentage number of houses in California.

Both ways, it’s the highest ever, with about 1/30 ownde occupied houses in default. Not pretty.

The San Francisco Chronicle also has some pretty pictures:


Foreclosures are skyrocketing.

Seeing as how pictures are worth 1000 words, I think that I have written enough.

U.K. Home Prices Decline for First Time in 2 Years

This subprime mortgage default and derivative thing is not just effecting the united states. They have already had what amounted to a bank failure, Northern Rock Plc, and the Bank of England raised its rate to 5.75% in July so the era of easy money in British real estate is over.

Seeing as how a lot of Brits have been bidding up properties in places like Spain for vacation homes, this contagion will spread.

The only place possibly innoculated against this is Japan, since they just finished a 15 year long real estate crash.

Sorry, Obama is Engaging in Dog Whistle Politics Against Gays to Secure the Conservative Evangelical Black Vote

It turns out that not only did Donnie McClurkin sing, but he also unleashed an “I’m a former gay tirade in the last half hour of his set. CNN has reported it, saying that McClurkin said that, “he has been ‘vilified’ and declaring that ‘God delivered me from homosexuality.'”

As to the white gay preacher that they included, they buried him:

Sidden is the white, gay pastor added to the concert bill as a last minute compromise by the Obama campaign. Sidden’s appearance was notably brief and anti-climactic: He said a short prayer to the auditorium at the very beginning of the program, when the arena was only about half full, and then he left.

The New York times subtly suggests that this was dog whistle politics, i.e. that he was trying to tell the largely socially conservative audience that he was uncomfortable with gays without alerting anyone else:

Still, canceling Mr. McClurkin’s appearance might have created more problems. Mr. McClurkin’s support for Mr. Obama could signal to some black evangelical voters that race and religion are more important than Mr. Obama’s support for gay rights.

The campaign has tried to turn the situation into a demonstration of the candidate’s big-tent acceptance. It did bring together some supporters from the gay community and the black religious community who wrote a joint letter a few days ago saying that Mr. McClurkin’s statements had been “deeply hurtful and offensive to many Americans, most especially gay Americans.”

At the same time, it said, “a great many African Americans share Pastor McClurkin’s beliefs” and “their religion prevents them from fully embracing their gay brothers and sisters.” It lauded Mr. Obama “who speaks truth in love to both sides.”

I would agree. The Obama Campaign’s response is nearly identical to that of creationists, and the ACLU arguing for the right of Nazis to march in Skokie.

The ACLU was right, but they were talking about demonstrations, not literally on a campaign’s stage.

As Matt Stoller so eloquently put it, Progressive Campaigns to Do Not Gay Bash.

I’m probably not as angry as John Aravosis about this, after all, I’m straight*, but I am convinced that this was deliberate, and sophisticated message of bigotry to the Socially conservative black Evangelicals in South Carolina.

*Or maybe I haven’t met Mr. Right…Whatever.

Ok!!!! I’m Awake Now (And I Need a Change of Underwear)

I had to fill up, and there is a 7-11 on the way to work, so I filled up there.

I filled up the car, but I decided that I needed hydration and caffeine, so I got myself a Coke® Slurpee®. It looked a trifle over frozen, so I stood as far back as I could while operating the machine.

I got everything working fairly well, when BLAMM!!!!, some sort of pressure surge hit, and ruptured the lid.

It sounded like an atom bomb had gone off, and everyone looked over. I was standing there with a stunned expression* on my face.

The lid was shredded, but remarkably enough, I had no Slurpee® on me…not a drop.

One of the clerks came to help me dispense, I think that they were grateful that there was no actual gun play tied with the noise, and she joked, “Need to go to the bathroom now?” I replied, “too late for that,” which got a chuckle out of her.

*My brother calls it the “looking like a cow that has just stepped on its own udder” expression.

Ron Paul, Get off Your Ass and Campaign!

Open Left examines the campaigns of the candidates, and comes up with this informative information on the number of campaign events for each:

  1. Romney: 400
  2. Richardson: 347
  3. Edwards: 344
  4. Obama: 331
  5. McCain: 316
  6. Clinton: 293
  7. Dodd: 225
  8. Huckabee: 214
  9. Giuliani: 201
  10. Brownback: 198
  11. Biden: 177
  12. Kucinich: 149
  13. Tancredo: 118
  14. Hunter: 90
  15. Ron Paul: 82
  16. Thompson: 50
  17. Gravel: 35

Ron Paul, currently above 7% in New Hampshire is third to last in number of campaign events.

Behind him is Fred Thompson, who has been running only since September, and Mike Gravel, who is not a serious candidate.

If Ron Paul wants to be considered a serious candidate, and he has been raising money well, and could do well in places like New Hampshire, where independents can vote in the primaries, then he needs to campaign like a serious candidate.

Given his exposure, the fact that Kucinich has nearly twice as many campaign events, and Tancredo and Hunter are well ahead of his numbers is an indication that he is not serious.

How much do you want to bet that this will get a comment from a fervent Paul supporter? I’ve yet to post an entry on him that hasn’t, so his internet campaign is organized, but he needs to do more work in meatspace.

The Myth of Christian Founding Fathers

Well, religious nutbag Mike Huckabee claimed that most of the signers of the declaration of were clergy, which means that according according to Republican math, 1 out of 56 equals most. John Witherspoon* was the only active clergymen. The right wing Heritage Foundation claims that there were two signers who were former clergymen, and Adherents.com said four signers of the declaration were current or former full-time preachers.

George Washington was probably a deist, who refused communion. All indications are that he was more involved with Masonic theology (God as creator and now not involved on a day to day basis with the world). He rarely if ever, referred to Jesus.

John Adams became a Unitarian, rejecting fundamental doctrines of conventional Christianity, such as the Trinity and the divinity of Jesus

In his, “A Defence of the Constitutions of Government of the United States of America” [1787-1788], John Adams wrote:

“The United States of America have exhibited, perhaps, the first example of governments erected on the simple principles of nature; and if men are now sufficiently enlightened to disabuse themselves of artifice, imposture, hypocrisy, and superstition, they will consider this event as an era in their history. Although the detail of the formation of the American governments is at present little known or regarded either in Europe or in America, it may hereafter become an object of curiosity. It will never be pretended that any persons employed in that service had interviews with the gods, or were in any degree under the influence of Heaven, more than those at work upon ships or houses, or laboring in merchandise or agriculture; it will forever be acknowledged that these governments were contrived merely by the use of reason and the senses.

“. . . Thirteen governments [of the original states] thus founded on the natural authority of the people alone, without a pretence of miracle or mystery, and which are destined to spread over the northern part of that whole quarter of the globe, are a great point gained in favor of the rights of mankind.”

Jefferson believed in materialism, reason, and science. He never admitted to any religion but his own. In a letter to Ezra Stiles Ely, 25 June 1819, he wrote, “You say you are a Calvinist. I am not. I am of a sect by myself, as far as I know.”

James Madison found established religion pernicious.

In 1785, Madison wrote in his Memorial and Remonstrance against Religious Assessments:

“During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What have been its fruits? More or less in all places, pride and indolence in the Clergy, ignorance and servility in the laity; in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution.”

“What influence, in fact, have ecclesiastical establishments had on society? In some instances they have been seen to erect a spiritual tyranny on the ruins of the civil authority; on many instances they have been seen upholding the thrones of political tyranny; in no instance have they been the guardians of the liberties of the people. Rulers who wish to subvert the public liberty may have found an established clergy convenient auxiliaries. A just government, instituted to secure and perpetuate it, needs them not.”

Then there is the treaty of Tripoli, ratified in 1979

As the Government of the United States of America is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion; as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion, or tranquillity, of Musselmen; and as the said States never have entered into any war or act of hostility against any Mehomitan nation, it is declared by the parties that no pretext arising from religious opinions shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries.”

What is clear is that however spiritual the founding fathers were, they were disdainful of organized religion, considering it to be ignorant superstition.

*Who is an ancestor of the delectable Reese Witherspoon.
An archaic term referring to Moslems.

More Political Prosecutions

This time, it involves Dr. Cyryl Wecht, the former Allegheny County Coroner, and former Attorney General, Pennsylvania Governor and former senate candidate, and staunch Republican Dick Thornburgh has testified before congress about this prosecution.

Thornburgh is one of Wecht’s defense lawyers, and his complaints stem from what he’s called the “sheer intensity” of the investigation, which involves relatively minor accusations that Thornburgh says should have been handled by the state ethics commission.

As a means of showing the relative triviality of the charges (the 84-count indictment doesn’t put a price tag on Wecht’s fraud), Wecht’s lawyers have calculated that the cumulative cost for the 37 charges in the indictment that involve improperly charging the county for gasoline and mileage costs add up to $1,778.55. The most colorful of the charges, of course, involve the elaborate body snatching scheme: prosecutors allege that Wecht gave a local Catholic university unclaimed bodies in exchange for laboratory space.

The source of the investigation’s “intensity” is U.S. Attorney for Pittsburgh Mary Beth Buchanan, a member of the DoJ’s inner circle who played a role in the U.S. attorney firings. It’s not the first time that Buchanan has drawn fire. During the heat of the scandal, a former assistant U.S. attorney in the district (from 1995-2000, before Buchanan took over) publicly called on Buchanan to resign because of “the extent to which she has looked to Washington for direction and political advancement.” Or to put it in plainer terms: Buchanan has prosecuted a number of Democrats but no Republicans.

There is also a history of not particularly veiled threats toward the defense attorneys.

Seriously, once Bush and His Evil Minions are out of office, we are going to have to deBushify our government in the way that we deNazified the German one after WW II.

Bush has polluted everything he has ever touched in his life.

Private Players in Most State Lotteries Corrupt and Inefficient

Given the history of private tax collection, you can go to Paul Krugman’s blog post regarding the return of this activity, it is no of a surprise that the operation of most state lotteries greatly resembles the “Tax Farming” that bankrupted and caused the overthrow of the French monarchy.

It turns out that morally dubious is the most charitable description of how these companies operate, and when one takes the long view, they cost the states money when they operate a lottery.

While a state with an active lottery cannot switch immediately, it would benefit everyone by the lottery oligopoly, Gtech and Scientific Games, to take these functions internal to the state government, where there is far greater transparency.

I have not followed the lottery in Maryland, but it is clear that bribery, or something akin to bribery, has been going on in Texas for years.

Pennsylvania is for F*&^ing Morons

Seriously, it’s un-bloody-believably stupid toto refuse to release the statewide list of polling places because of some non-specific concerns about “terrorist” threats. They claim that they are doing this to, “protect the public and the integrity of the voting process”.

This is the most basic sort of information for anyone who wants to coordinate any sort of state-wide effort.

If these guys were any stupider, they’d need someone to feed them.

It Appears that the House May Be Voting on Contempt Citations Against Bolton and Miers

Thera are reports that the House leadership will be moving toward a vote on contempt citations against Harriet Meirs and Josh Bolton for their refusal to testify on the US Attorney firings scandal.

I hope that they have the balls to go through this, but I doubt it. An interesting note, contempt of congress is a crime against the congress, not against the republic, and as such is NOT covered by presidential pardons.

Mukasey’s Nomination May Be Waterboarded

It appears that Mukasey’s non answer to whether waterboarding is torture may derail his nomination as attorney general.

It appears that Senators Leahy, Reid, Durbin, and Whitehouse will not support his nomination unless and until he clarifies his position.

Leahy, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, has yet to schedule a vote because of this issue.

The original troubling exchange, coming after Mukasey said that torture was never constitutional on the first day of his testimony is the his response to Senator Whatehouse’s question as to whether waterboarding is torture:

“That’s a massive hedge,” Whitehouse responded incredulously. “It either is or it isn’t.”

“If it amounts to torture, it is not constitutional,” Mukasey answered.

“I’m very disappointed in that answer,” Whitehouse said. “I think it is purely semantic.”

What is clear is that following his comdemnation of tortrue on the first day of testimony, someone representing Bush and His Evil Minions&trade got to him and told him that he needed to weasel.

John McCain, Victim of Torture, Gets it Right on Torture

McCain cuts Giuliani a new one on waterboarding.

“All I can say is that it was used in the Spanish Inquisition, it was used in Pol Pot’s genocide in Cambodia, and there are reports that it is being used against Buddhist monks today,” Mr. McCain, who spent more than five years in a North Vietnamese prison camp, said in a telephone interview.

Of presidential candidates like Mr. Giuliani, who say that they are unsure whether waterboarding is torture, Mr. McCain said: “They should know what it is. It is not a complicated procedure. It is torture.”

Of course, it would have more force if McCain had not spent the past eight years with his tongue up George W. Bush’s anus because he wanted to be president.

Financial News, and it is Not Good

The dollar is at an all time low, $1.4393:1.00€, and $1.0398:$1.00CAD.

Oil is now at $92.79/bbl.

So, the question is now not just whether the fed can cut rates, but if the currency situation has already precluded any more action in that direction.

Even if the fed cuts rates, if the dollar falls significantly, and all indications are that it will, it will push up rates anyway, as the US needs the foreign dollars to function, but those lenders will demand a better return on their investment for the higher perceived risk..

Charles Rangel Unveils Massive Tax Overhaul

Truth be told, this tax proposal is clearly more of an opening salvo than anything else. It serves a number of purposes:

  • It is a revenue neutral proposal which lowers taxes on over half the polulation, which is good politics.
  • It will reinforce the meme that the current tax system is broken.
  • It shows how many tax loopholes the fat cats get.
  • It puts the Republicans on defense, so now they can’t just mindlessly parrot “keep Bush’s tax cuts”.

This is probably the most important single bill we will see this session (Yes, I know about the war, and the warrentless wiretaps). To the degree that we increase the cost of obscene remuneration, we make it occur less frequently, and this reshapes our society.

The new gilded age we live in is largely an artifact of the social repercussions of the tax plans enacted by Reagan, Bush, and Bush.

Yet Another Reason to Shut Down the USAF as an Independent Branch of the Service

Yes, after experience in Iraq and Afghanistan prove that our latest line of jets, the F-22 and the F-36 have next to no utility relative to our existing aircraft, THE USAF is requesting another 20 F-22s to keep the production line open.

Unlike all the other services, the Air-Force exists to serve those other branches. The Navy controls the ocean, the marines do amphibious assault, the army holds the land, and Air Force engages in operations to make sure that the previous three can accomplish their goals as easily as possible.

An independent Air Force does not serve the national defense. Their priorities only match the defense needs of the country by accident.