Category: Polls

Ha Ha!

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Notwithstanding the fact that the his Blairite opposition has settled on a single competitor to run against Jeremy Corbyn to head labour, but the current Labour leader still has a strong majority in polls:

Jeremy Corbyn is the overwhelming favourite to win the Labour leadership contest, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll, which shows he has more than twice the level of support among party supporters as his challenger, Owen Smith.

The online poll finds that among those who say they back Labour, 54% support Corbyn against just 22% who would prefer Smith. Some 20% say they are undecided and 4% say they do not intend to vote.

The findings offer further proof that grassroots support for Corbyn remains firm despite weeks of bitter conflict between the leader and Labour MPs at Westminster, a large majority of whom backed a vote of no confidence in him after the EU referendum.

This is not a surprise.

What is also not a surprise is that Labour is not polling well, because they managed to appear more f%$#d up than the Tories, which is no small thing, considering that they just made Boris f%$#ing Johnson their foreign minister.

The Blairites are more than willing to destroy Labour to maintain their positions within the party.

Not a Surprise

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The Military Times conducted a survey which showed that members of the military support Trump by a large margin:

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Spokane, Wash., on May 7, 2016.(Photo: Ted S. Warren/AP)

In a new survey of American military personnel, Donald Trump emerged as active-duty service members’ preference to become the next U.S. president, topping Hillary Clinton by more than a 2-to-1 margin. However, in the latest Military Times election survey, more than one in five troops said they’d rather not vote in November if they have to choose between just those two candidates.

But given only those choices, 21 percent of the service members surveyed said they would abstain from voting.More than 54 percent of the 951 troops Military Times surveyed said they would vote for Trump, the presumed Republican presidential nominee, over Clinton, the Democratic front-runner. Only about 25 percent said they would vote for Clinton in that matchup.

This is not surprising:

  • The military trends conservative.
  • Clinton is more likely to squander blood and treasure in an unnecessary war than anyone this side of Richard Bruce Cheney.

It’s unlikely that the military vote will be decisive, but I gotta figure that they are sick and tired of useless and meaningless losing wars.

    Predictably Depressing

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    It appears that the overwhelming majority of Americans now consider mass shootings to be a regular fact of life:

    A new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that a whopping 71% of Americans surveyed believe the many shootings and other acts of mass violence in we’ve seen in 2015 are now a permanent part of life in our country.

    That’s compared with just 21 percent of Americans who think the violence this year — from Charleston, S.C., and Oregon, to the terrorist shootings in San Bernardino, Calif. — has been unusual and won’t happen as often in the future. 

    America is broken.

    Not This Sh%$ AGain!

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    Once again, after seeing the continued popularity of Donald Trump amongst the Republican party base, the punditry reach into their bag, and pull out Willard Mitt Rmoney. Give me a f%$#ing break:

    Huge congratulations to Suffolk University and the Boston Globe for crafting a poll in New Hampshire that actually offers an interesting bit of news. The story of the Republican primary in the state has largely been the same for months, with Donald Trump holding a steady and robust lead. In the Real Clear Politics polling average, he’s up 15 points. In Suffolk’s new poll, he’s up 10 — but with a healthy-sized number of undecideds.



    But then Suffolk and the Globe added something to the mix. If we added Mitt Romney to the list, they asked, would you switch to him? For 30 percent of respondents, the answer was “yes.” Romney leads all other Republicans by a two-to-one margin. Trump loses a third of his support.

    Seriously, can we give this a rest?

    Rmoney is popular because He is Not Running., and as soon as he joined the race, he would be forced to fall into lockstep with the batsh%$ insane wing of the party base, and we would be back to where we started.

    The depressing thing about this is that on the other side of the aisle, the favored candidate of the pundit class, Hillary Clinton is the weakest candidate against “The Donald.”  (Yes, the polling shows that O’Malley even though a cipher to most voters polls slightly better against Trump.)

    So, it’s “insane” to  nominate Donald trump, but the only sane thing for the Democrats to do is nominate the candidate that he is most likely to beat.

    Could the pundit class please go Cheney themselves?

    There is Someone Less Popular than Barack Obama in Kansas

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    It’s Kansas Governor Sam Brownback:

    Only 18 percent of Kansans are “very” or “somewhat satisfied” with Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) job performance, according to a poll from Fort Hays State University released Friday.

     In comparison, President Barack Obama (D) had a job approval rating 10 points higher in the deep red state than the Republican governor: 28 percent.

     “This could be some of the lowest approval ratings of any Kansas governor in history,” Bob Beatty, a political scientist at Washburn University, told the Topeka Capital-Journal on Saturday.

    It appears that the people of Kansas aren’t evil, they are just kind of slow.

    That’s why it’s taken 4 f%$#ing years for them to get the fact that they are dealing with a delusional psychopath.

    Seriously, folks, what were you waiting for, for him to start carrying around a white Persian cat?

    I am Amused

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    In the latest Fox News Poll, Donald Trump is the 2nd most popular candidates in the Republican primaries:

    There’s been a lineup change in the race for the GOP nomination, as businessman Donald Trump moves up after declaring his candidacy. He’s now second in the order after former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who also got an uptick in support after his formal announcement.

    For Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still — by far — the team leader, according to a new Fox News national poll on the 2016 presidential election.

    Bush tops the list of GOP contenders with 15 percent support among Republican primary voters. That’s up from 12 percent last month and his best showing yet. Support for Trump more than doubled since his announcement and that catapults him into the top tier at 11 percent. He’s followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10 percent. No one else receives double-digit backing.

    Bush officially kicked off his campaign June 15 and Trump launched June 16. It’s common for candidates to see a bump in their numbers in the days following their formal announcement and the media coverage that comes with that.

    The bad news for Trump is that only 29 percent of GOP primary voters consider him a serious candidate. More than twice that many — 64 percent — think he’s a side show. Among all registered voters, nearly 8 in 10 say Trump is a side show (77 percent).

    This appears to mean that the “2nd worst Donald on Earth,”*Fox News, much to the chagrin of the voters, is trying to limit its debates to the “top 10” candidates, which has the effect of eliminating those at positions 11 and below from having a meaningful chance in Iowa or New Hampshire, and hence the primaries.

    And it appears that the biggest joke in Presidential politics will get one of those seats at the table.

    It so sucks to be a Republican right now.

    Heh.

    *Larry Wilmore called Donald Rumsfeld, “The Only Donald Worse than Trump,” and I wholeheartedly agree.

    There is Hope for the Democrats in November

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    It appears that the more that people hate Congress, the more likely they are to vote:

    Could voter disdain for Congress motivate more people to turn out this November? Could be.

    A new Gallup study suggests that in recent elections, disapproval of Congress’ job performance meant higher turnout. Currently, Gallup’s congressional job approval is 13 percent, with 19 percent of registered voters saying members of Congress deserve re-election.

    Voters may feel they can effect change, since in 1994, 2006 and 2010 control of the House of Representatives changed parties.

    “There has been a clear pattern of turnout being on the higher end of the midterm year range when Americans were less approving of Congress,” said Gallup analyst Jeffrey Jones in the Gallup study.

    If this is true, then the Dems will definitely hold onto the Senate, because high turnout favors Dems, and this Congress rates 100% voter turnout.

    It Now Sucks Even More to be Mitch McConnell

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    Because the latest polling from the right leaning Rasmussen polls has him tied with Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes:

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is tied with his Democratic opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes, at 42 percent each in a new poll by conservative-leaning firm Rasmussen Reports.

    Six percent preferred neither of them, and 10 percent were undecided, according to the survey, which was released Monday.

    Rasmussen’s polls came under fire during the 2010 and 2012 election cycles for regularly overstating the standing of Republican candidates.

    Note that undecideds tend to break for the challenger. (Happy dance!!)

    If I were a Democratic political consultant right now, I would be using these numbers to push Matt Bevin, the teabagger running against McConnell in the primary.

    What McConnell has going for him, both in the primary and the general, is the sense of inevitability that he intends to convey.

    Drive a stake through its heart.

    Guess Who is Seen as the Greatest Threat to World Peace in the World Today?

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    USA!!! USA!!! USA!!!:

    US President Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize four years ago. Today, the country he leads is seen — according to a new poll — as the biggest threat to world peace.

    The global survey, conducted by WIN/Gallup International, polled residents in 68 countries on everything from the global economy to politics and living conditions.

    According to the poll, 24 percent of the surveyed countries ranked the United States as the greatest threat to world peace today, followed by Pakistan at 8 percent, China at 6 percent and four countries (Afghanistan, Iran, Israel and North Korea) tied at 5 percent.

    Thirty-seven percent of Mexicans ranked their northern neighbor the top threat to the world.

    We’re Number One!!!!! We’re Number One!!!!!

    Gee, I wonder if the Swedes are feeling now about about giving President Drone Strike a f%$#ing Nobel f%$#ing Peace Prize.

    What a Surprise

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    When Whites are asked about affirmative action in the context of Asian-Americans, suddenly they are much more supportive of affirmative action:

    Critics of affirmative action generally argue that the country would be better off with a meritocracy, typically defined as an admissions system where high school grades and standardized test scores are the key factors, applied in the same way to applicants of all races and ethnicities.

    But what if they think they favor meritocracy but at some level actually have a flexible definition, depending on which groups would be helped by certain policies? Frank L. Samson, assistant professor of sociology at the University of Miami, thinks his new research findings suggest that the definition of meritocracy used by white people is far more fluid than many would admit, and that this fluidity results in white people favoring certain policies (and groups) over others.

    Specifically, he found, in a survey of white California adults, they generally favor admissions policies that place a high priority on high school grade-point averages and standardized test scores. But when these white people are focused on the success of Asian-American students, their views change.

    As the saying goes, “Where you stand depends upon where you sit.”

    Least Shocking News of the Day

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    Wall Street executives believes that their employees cannot succeed without breaking the law:

    If the ancient Greek philosopher Diogenes were to go out with his lantern in search of an honest man today, a survey of Wall Street executives on workplace conduct suggests he might have to look elsewhere.

    A quarter of Wall Street executives see wrongdoing as a key to success, according to a survey by whistleblower law firm Labaton Sucharow released on Tuesday.

    In a survey of 500 senior executives in the United States and the UK, 26 percent of respondents said they had observed or had firsthand knowledge of wrongdoing in the workplace, while 24 percent said they believed financial services professionals may need to engage in unethical or illegal conduct to be successful.

    Sixteen percent of respondents said they would commit insider trading if they could get away with it, according to Labaton Sucharow. And 30 percent said their compensation plans created pressure to compromise ethical standards or violate the law.

    Truth be told, I’m surprised the number is so low.

    The cynic in me says that most of the roughly ¾ who disagreed were lying because that’s what they do.

    The realist in me says that most of the roughly ¾ who disagreed able to deduce the purpose of the survey, and determine that their, and their companies’ needs were, and then gave an answer that served those interests.

    The optimist in me says that most of the roughly ¾ who disagreed have access to some really good drugs.

    Rasmussen?

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    Rasmussen is a very Republican pollster.

    Whenever you see their numbers, as Ed Kilgore observes, you probably want to move the dial around 5% toward the Republican side of the dial.

    So the news that their latest poll has a  a majority of respondents supporting the recall of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker,  52%-47%, it means that that weasel is in some serious trouble.

    My only concern is about the primary to select his opponent.  It’s beginning to look like Secretary of State Doug La Follette is working hard to form a circular firing squad.

    Ha Ha!

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    The latest PPP (pp)polling, Rick Perry is in third place in Texas.

    Normally, even in losing a Presidential primary contest, one tends to pick up a bit of stature both locally and nationally, in the case of Rick Perry, I think that it may very well have destroyed his future prospects in the state.

    Rick Perry has three big problems: Collapsing poll numbers, worse debate performance than J. Danforth Quayle, and … let’s see … I can’t … The third one, I can’t … Oops.

    Karl Marx is Laughing

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    Because Congress is less popular than Communism:

    There is a deeper message, which is that John Boehner and Mitch McConnell has managed to take an institution which already held in low esteem, and absolutely trash it.

    While the “very serious people” in the Democratic Party think that this is a political advantage, they are wrong.

    You see, the foundation of conservative electioneering is the idea that government does not work, and as much as they might damage themselves in the short term, they are, in the long term, undermining the very idea that government can regulate the banksters, keep the poor from starving, protect us in the work place, and provide healthcare for the rest of us.

    While someone like John Boehner may be too gin soaked and stupid to consciously understand this, he, and His Evil Minions™, do understand that constant gridlock and dysfunction plays to their strengths, and that it’s a lot easier than doing something constructive.

    I’m Beginning to Wonder if This is all Anti-Mormon bigotry

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    It seems that the Republican base is determined to find an alternative to Mitt Romney, and they seem to cycle through a series of brain dead clowns who are destined to fail. So, after cycling through Bachmann, Perry, and Cain, it looks like the ‘Phants are truly scraping the bottom of the barrel, with Newt Gingrich rising in the polls:

    It’s come to this.

    In the wake of Herman Cain’s multiple sexual harassment accusations, the media narrative of Romney-the-Inevitable has continued to grow. But it seems the anti-Mitt crowd is continuing to grasp for other choices. The latest alternative?

    Newt Gingrich.

    Months ago, many declared Gingrich’s campaign dead barely after it had begun, when he criticized Paul Ryan’s medicare-killing house budget, and lost his top campaign staffers in a major shakeup. But polls released Friday suggest growing momentum.

    Let’s review the mounting evidence, shall we?

    A national CBS News poll shows Gingrich as the choice of 15% of GOP voters, tied with Mitt Romney and three points behind Herman Cain, who is slipping.

    A national McClatchy/Marist poll shows Gingrich in second place with 19% of the vote — four points behind Romney. Also notable is that 43% of Gingrich’s supporters say they are firmly committed to his candidacy — compared to 30% for Romney, and 31% for Cain. In total, only 30% of voters supporting a candidate say they are firmly committed. Gingrich’s higher-than-average floor of support could prove significant moving forward.

    This is a guy who served his 1st wife with divorce papers while she was in the hospital being treated for cancer, and dumped his 2nd on Mother’s Day when he knew that she had MS, and conducted a years long affair with his current wife while pursuing the impeachment of Bill Clinton for a blow job.

    That and the fact that he’s a smarmy bastard.

    The base is thrashing around for a non-Mormon and non-Catholic alternative to Romney, so the hapless Huntsman and the batsh%$ insane Santorum* are not viable alternatives.

    I’m wondering who the Republicans next “Great White Hope” will be.

    *The frothy mix of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the byproduct of anal sex.

    Like I Said, the Manchurian Democrat

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    Click for full size


    Democrats are not feeling the audacity


    But the Republicans are all fired up

    In 2008, Barack Obama convinced millions of young voters to enthusiastically vote for him.

    Between 2009 and now, he has convinced these same folks that they and their votes do not matter:

    In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic. This is in sharp contrast to 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2004, when the great majority of Democrats expressed heightened enthusiasm about voting.

    The most depressing thing about all of this that it’s likely that a lot of the new voters who came into the process are now likely to be apathetic for  years.

    We know what happens when the only reason that people are given to vote Democratic is “The Republicans are Scary”.  Just look at John Kerry’s 2004 run, and I think that the Dems are progressively making this their only talking point, particularly if Obama gets his way and manages to gut cut Medicare and Medicaid.

    H/t Americablog.

    Melissa Harris-Perry is a (Not Very) Useful Idiot

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    And what’s more, she is an idiot who is inadvertently enabling racists to use coded speech to race bait.

    You see,she is claiming that “white liberals” are losing faith in Barack Obama because they are all a bunch of racists, who require a black man to be Superman in order to get their support:

    President Obama has experienced a swift and steep decline in support among white Americans—from 61 percent in 2009 to 33 percent now. I believe much of that decline can be attributed to their disappointment that choosing a black man for president did not prove to be salvific for them or the nation. His record is, at the very least, comparable to that of President Clinton, who was enthusiastically re-elected. The 2012 election is a test of whether Obama will be held to standards never before imposed on an incumbent. If he is, it may be possible to read that result as the triumph of a more subtle form of racism.

    You know, there is also the possibility that he’s just not doing a good job.

    One indicator of this is that his favorability numbers are cratering among the Black community aw well:

    New cracks have begun to show in President Obama’s support amongst African Americans, who have been his strongest supporters. Five months ago, 83 percent of African Americans held “strongly favorable” views of Obama, but in a new Washington Post-ABC news poll that number has dropped to 58 percent. That drop is similar to slipping support for Obama among all groups.

    “There is a certain amount of racial loyalty and party loyalty, but eventually that was going to have to weaken,” said Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, who studies African Americans. “It’s understandable given the economy.”

    So we have a 25% drop among AAs, and a 28% drop among whites.

    And we have no numbers at all broken out for white liberals.

    So Harris-Perry is full of crap, but that’s the least of it.

    You see, every time we get this sort of sh%$ spewed at us, it allows the real racists out there, and there are a lot of them, to claim that there is no racism, and that it’s all just a code word for the liberal agenda.

    Dr. Harris-Perry is clearly a big fan of Barack Obama, and she is clearly wants to explain away what other people see as his failings, but tossing about specious accusations of bigotry where no objective data serves to make any statements about racism that much less credible.

    I know that it’s easier than answering things David Sirota’s statement that. “Racism isn’t responsible for the president’s drop in popularity. His right-wing policies are,” but it is intellectually bankrupt, and it serves the purposes of the real racists out there.

    Well, Pull Down My Pants, and Paint My Butt Blue!

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    The latest poll has Elizabeth Warren up two points over Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race, which, while within the margin or error, is still a 17 point swing in her favor:

    Elizabeth Warren has had an incredibly successful launch to her Senate campaign and actually leads Scott Brown now by a 46-44 margin, erasing what was a 15 point deficit the last time we polled the state in early June.

    Warren’s gone from 38% name recognition to 62% over the last three months and she’s made a good first impression on pretty much everyone who’s developed an opinion about her during that period of time. What was a 21/17 favorability rating in June is now 40/22- in other words she’s increased the voters with a positive opinion of her by 19% while her negatives have risen only 5%.

    I would note that the general rule of thumb is that undecideds break 2:1 to the challenger, so this is a pretty ugly picture for the distinguished gentleman from Massachusetts.

    There are some important caveats here as well though.  Warren just announced, and so is likely experienced a bounce, and this is just one poll.

    What’s more, Brown’s approval numbers are falling as well. (see chart pr0n)

    My guess is that Massachusetts voters are beginning to understand that he is much more of a cog in the Republican party machine than he said while he was campaigning in the special election.