Category: DPRK

Trump is Right on This

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For more the 20 years, we have had a problem with out negotiations with the DPRK (North Korea).

We haven’t even been able to end the Korean War.*

The problem is that one of the parties is not negotiations is not acting in good faith, and engages in meaningless posturing, threats of dire consequences, and a general lack of seriousness.

The other, of course, is the DPRK.

Since the Clinton administration stiffed the DPRK on formal diplomatic relations in 2004, the US has refused face to face negotiations, because ……… Hell, I don’t know why, but it appears that Donald Trump finds this similarly absurd:

Presumptive US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he is willing to meet North Korea’s leader to discuss its nuclear programme.

“I would speak to him, I would have no problem speaking to him,” the businessman said of Kim Jong-un.

Such a meeting would mark a significant change of US policy towards the politically isolated regime.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton decried Mr Trump’s “bizarre fascination with foreign strongmen”.

The statement, delivered by one of her aides, added that Mr Trump’s foreign policy “made no sense”.

Because talking with people instead of threatening them works so well?

The DPRK has tested nukes, probably including a boosted fission device, and they have conducted launches of SLBMs in the 22 years since we promised to exchange ambassadors.

Talking to someone is not a reward. Rewarding someone is a reward.

In fact, talking to Donald Trump is one of my definitions of cruel and unusual punishment.

The Washington, DC consensus on the DPRK is nuts, and stupid, and nuts.

Trump is right here, a generation of US diplomats are wrong.

BTW, f%$# the Donald for being right, and f%$# the idiots at Foggy Bottom for making him right.

*Seriously. This is not a joke. Technically hostilities are still active, we are just in a temporary truce.

I Called it on the North Korean H-Bomb

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An alleged picture of their new warhead

11 Weeks ago, the DPRK claimed to have set off a hydrogen bomb.

Most of the experts said that this was not the case, as the seismic data did not show a significantly larger blast than its previous tests, and normally a first time full Thermonuclear (3-stage) device will be big.

At the time, I suggested that it was not a full 3 stage device, but that it was a boosted device, where there is not a whole bunch of fusion, perhaps 5% of the blast.

I suggested that this was important because what a boosted fission device does allow for is a miniaturized warhead, because the additional neutrons from the small amount of fusion allow for a smaller amount of fissile material.

And now North Korea has announced that it has a miniaturized warhead that it has integrated with one of its missiles:

North Korea claims it has the know how and capability to develop a nuclear warhead to equip ballistic missiles. This claim has been substantiated today, by the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Kim Jong-Un, presenting a complex spherical object claimed to be the country’s miniaturized thermonuclear warhead.“The nuclear warheads have been standardised to be fit for ballistic missiles by miniaturising them,” Kim noted during a visit with nuclear technicians that was reported by the DPRK state media today.

It is possible that the new warhead is designed for the Korean KN08 intermediate range ballistic missile that has yet to be tested in flight. Once proven, the missile is expected to boast the range and payload capacity to deliver attacks on US targets in the Pacific and west coast. Kim also stressed that the miniaturised warheads were “thermo-nuclear” devices, echoing the North’s claim that the nuclear test it conducted in January was of a more powerful hydrogen bomb.

………

North Korea’s claim to have successfully tested an H-bomb in January was greeted with scepticism at the time as the estimated yield was seen as far too low for a full-fledged thermo-nuclear device.

However, weapons experts have suggested it may have been a “boosted” fission device, which makes more efficient use of nuclear material and can be made smaller without sacrificing yield.

I wasn’t the only one out there suggesting this scenario, but I was in the minority, and it appears that I nailed it.

I am Calling a Boosted Fission Device

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The DPRK has claimed to detonate a Hydrogen Bomb, but the seismic evidence would indicate otherwise:

The bold claim by North Korea on Wednesday that it had detonated a hydrogen bomb appeared to fizzle under the intense scrutiny of U.S. physicists and nuclear weapons experts.

 The explosive power detected by earthquake sensors around the world was much weaker than would be expected from a hydrogen bomb, experts said.

 “It was not very big,” said Philip Coyle, the former director of nuclear weapons testing at the Nevada Test Site and a longtime U.S. national security official.

 An exhaustive investigation into the test, including sampling air for telltale radioactive particles and studying seismic shock waves, will take weeks. The analysis is likely to confirm the size of the detonation, the type of radioactive fuel it used, how the fuel was produced and the sophistication of its design.

 U.S. experts initially estimated the power of the underground explosion was as small as 6 kilotons, less than the atomic bomb that the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima in World War II.

Some basic technical information: There are 3 types of nuclear weapons:

Fission bombs use Uranium or Plutonium to create a bomb.

Boosted fission weapons use small quantities of the isotopes of Hydrogen deuterium and tritium and achieve a minimal amount of fission, but allows for a greater percentage of fusion fission for a given amount of material because the small amount of fusion emits a large number of neutrons, increasing the reaction.

Among other things, a boosted fission weapon can be a lot smaller than a pure fission device.

Thermonuclear (Teller-Ulam) weapons typically have three stages:

  • A boosted fission primary which has a mirror to focus its energy on
  • A mixture of deuterium and tritium which fuses on a large scale, and releases neutrons which
  • Initiate fission in a depleted (U-238) jacket

A pure fission weapon is typically in the 20 kiloton range.

A boosted fission weapon weapon could go up to an upper limit 1 megaton.

The first thermonuclear weapon, “Mike” was 10 megatons, and the largest one ever detonated was the Soviet Tsar Bomba, which was designed to achieve 100 MT, but only achieved 50 MT because the depleted uranium jacket was omitted to reduce fallout.

Theoretically, there is no limit on the size of a Teller Ulam device.

So, on to the analysis.

The first thing to note is that, much like making watches, it is tougher to make a small bomb than it is a large one, so it is highly unlikely that any true thermonuclear weapon would be under a megaton.

Second, it is likely that the DPRK is looking at miniaturizing their weapons, and a boosted fission device would achieve this.

Third, for one to have a practical thermonuclear weapon, you need to have a boosted fission first stage, otherwise, you end up with something like “Mike” which weighed over 80 tons. (Mike used a boosted fission trigger, it was just f%$#ing huge as a result of being the first such device, the fact that it used liquid deuterium, and the associated support and measurement equipment).

So, my not so expert opinion:

  • It’s a big deal, but applies to any nuclear test.
  • It was probably a test of a boosted fission device.
  • It was likely a fizzle, as the seismology shows a relatively low yield.

So, yes, this is a big f%$#ing deal, and I would suggest that a formal exchange of ambassadors and diplomatic recognition, which was agreed to in 1994, might be a good counter move.

In the mean time, I am sure that China, Russia, the US, Japan, and South Korea are analyzing the information, and sampling the air in the region to get more specifics.

    Oh, Sh%$………

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    Down in Korea, they are playing a game called stupid human tricks with artillery:

    South and North Korea traded artillery fire across their heavily militariZed border on Thursday, in a rare exchange that left no casualties but pushed already elevated cross-border tensions to dangerously high levels.

    North Korea followed up with an ultimatum sent via military hotline that gave the South 48 hours to dismantle loudspeakers blasting propaganda messages across the border or face further military action.

    The South’s defense ministry dismissed the threat and said the broadcasts would continue.

    Direct exchanges of fire across the inter-Korean land border are extremely rare, mainly, analysts say, because both sides recognize the risk for a sudden and potentially disastrous escalation between two countries that technically remain at war.

    ………

    In a detailed press briefing later in the day, the South’s defense ministry said the nuclear-armed North initially fired a single artillery round over the border shortly before 4:00pm (0700 GMT).

    Minutes later it fired several more in the rough direction of one of the South’s loudspeaker units, but the shells fell short on the South’s side of the demilitarized zone (DMZ) — a four kilometer-wide buffer area straddling the actual frontier line.

    The South Korean military retaliated by firing “dozens of rounds of 155mm shells” which the ministry said were also aimed to land in the North’s section of the DMZ.

    Seriously? You broadcasting propaganda across the border?

    Everyone in that peninsula is f%$#ing nuts!

    Why the Germans Shouldn’t Run the EU

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    It turns out that the economy of North Korea grew faster than the EU’s economy last year:

    North Korea’s economy expanded by 1.0% to $29.85 billion (£19 billion) in 2014, according to Reuters citing analysis from South Korea’s central bank.

    That’s just better than the 0.9% growth recorded in the Eurozone last year.

    The Bank of Korea (BoK) report that “the increase in economic activity was attributed mainly to growth in services and building while farming, mining and manufacturing saw slower growth.”

    Growth in services, making up around 31.3% of total economic output, accelerated to 1.3%, up from 0.3% in 2013, with retail sales, food, and accommodation, logistics and communications all expanding from a year earlier.

    ………

    North Korea does not release official economic data, hence the reliance on the BoK analysis to estimate economic output.

    EU growth is pathetic.

    What’s more the EU’s hegemon and chief predatory exporter, Germany, experienced a GDP growth roughly double that of the EU as a whole.

    German policies with regard to the EU, and particularly with regard to the Euro zone, are about benefiting the nation at the expense of its neighbors.

    German domination was a bad idea in 1935, and it’s a bad idea in 2015.

    Shorter FBI: It was da Norks, Trust Us

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    Yeah.

    I haven’t bought that since J. Edgar Hoover bought his first slip:

    The director of the FBI has defended his bureau’s claim that the hacking attack against Sony Pictures was the work of the North Korean government – saying skeptics “don’t have the facts that I have.”

    Speaking at a cybersecurity conference at Fordham University in New York City on Wednesday, FBI boss James Comey said he has “very high confidence” that Pyongyang was responsible for the comprehensive ransacking of the movie studio’s servers.

    When asked why security experts favor a different explanation – that the attack was probably the work of disgruntled insiders or former employees – Comey said, “They don’t have the facts that I have, don’t see what I see.”

    That’s true, because the FBI has remained tight-lipped as to the exact evidence that it believes links the Sony incident to North Korea. But on Wednesday, Comey offered the most detailed explanation yet of the government’s reasoning.

    When the group calling itself Guardians of Peace sent threatening emails and made other online statements, Comey said, it mostly used proxy servers to disguise the messages’ origins. “But several times, they got sloppy,” he claimed.

    On those occasions, he said, the group sent messages from servers with IP addresses “that were exclusively used by the North Koreans,” giving law enforcement a “very clear indication of who was doing this.”

    This makes no sense at all.

    It’s a pain in the ass to set up this kind of stuff, but once you do, you would have to actively decide to screw this up.

    As the article notes:

    Public IP network addresses, by themselves, are a poor indicator of the true origin of internet attacks, due to the ease with which traffic can be spoofed or routed through multiple networks. For this reason, infosec professionals remain skeptical the Kim government is responsible for the Sony Pictures hack.

    How much do you want to guess that the hackers “got sloppy” only after the DPRK got fingered?

    I ain’t buying it.

    Given the history of stove-piping by the US state security apparatus, I need something beyond, “If you knew what I do.”

    Don’t Jump to Conclusions on the Sony Hack

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    Bruce Schneier, perhaps the most prominent security pundit in the world, is dubious about the FBI’s claim that the DPRK is behind the Sony Hack, while Kurt Stammberger, the senior VP Norse, a cybersecurity firm, insists that all evidence points to an internal hack:

    Cybersecurity experts are questioning the FBI’s claim that North Korea is responsible for the hack that crippled Sony Pictures. Kurt Stammberger, a senior vice president with cybersecurity firm Norse, told CBS News his company has data that doubts some of the FBI’s findings.

    “Sony was not just hacked, this is a company that was essentially nuked from the inside,” said Stammberger.

    While Norse is not involved in the Sony case, it has done its own investigation.

    “We are very confident that this was not an attack master-minded by North Korea and that insiders were key to the implementation of one of the most devastating attacks in history,” said Stammberger.

    He says Norse data is pointing towards a woman who calls herself “Lena” and claims to be connected with the so-called “Guardians of Peace” hacking group. Norse believes it’s identified this woman as someone who worked at Sony in Los Angeles for ten years until leaving the company this past May.

    I’m inclined not to believe the official story from the FBI.

    The sketchy accounts currently given by the FBI seem to indicate that they worked backward, starting with the guilt of North Korea, and then picking and choosing evidence on that basis.

    Boom

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    The DPRK conducts a 3rd nuclear weapons test:

    At the United Nations, the desire to impose ever harsher sanctions on North Korea to try to curb its development of nuclear arms and ballistic missiles has long stalled in the face of Chinese opposition — the standard chain of events playing out here again on Tuesday after North Korea said it had carried out its third nuclear test.

    Security Council diplomats and the experts who track sanctions enforcement are quick to tick off the contents of a deeper toolbox that could be used to try to corral Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.

    They include banning specific, high-tech items used in the nuclear program like epoxy paste for centrifuges; limiting or outlawing some banking transactions; and a far more stringent inspection of ships bound to and from North Korea.

    But the sanctions in place are almost exclusively focused on nuclear and ballistic missile activity.

    The problem is that we have way too much posturing on both side.

    They need to stop setting off nukes, and we need to make a formal exchange of ambassadors.

    DPRK Finally Gets a Launch Half Right

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    North Korea’s satellite is actually in orbit, though it appears to be tumbling out of control:

    After 14 years of trying, North Korea has finally joined the countries capable of launching a satellite into orbit. But the success was short-lived. The nation’s space program is also experiencing the bitterness of the failure to keep its spacecraft stable.

    North Korea succeeded Dec. 11 on its six attempt to orbit what officials there call an Earth-observation satellite. The U.S. led a group of nations , including Russia and China, that warned North Korea not to proceed with the mission. China has since expressed “regret” over it.

    The launch technology can also be used to support the country ‘s ballistic missile program .

    A U.S. defense official suggests the satellite is tumbling in its polar orbit. Strategic Command, which tracks orbiting objects, referred questions to the Pentagon. A spokeswoman there said she would not comment on classified intelligence matters.

    One observer who tracked the spacecraft with night-vision goggles said it was “flickering” and produced an intermittent trace on a time-exposure photograph, which could suggest tumbling.

    What is significant here is not the ballistic missile capability that this shows, because this rocket science isn’t exactly ……… rocket science.

    Yes, I know, it technically is rocket science, and from an engineering and technical perspective it is significant, but a ballistic missile aimed at the west coast would need to impart less than ½ the kinetic energy to the payload.

    It’s been clear that this has been well within the Kim’s capabilities for years.

    What is significant is now that any attempt to prevent testing related to ballistic missiles will now have to clearly show that it is not almost entirely related to weapons.

    While there is support in the international community to prevent the development of explicitly military long range rocket capability, the idea that the United States, it’s NATO allies, Russia, China, Israel, etc. should be allowed to hold a hegemony on such a technology will be anathema to most other nations in the world.

    This is particularly true because the only nation put at threat by this, though South Korea and Japan are clearly at risk from shorter ranged rockets, is the United States.

    Julian Assange Granted Bail

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    We are all Julian Assange

    But the Swedish prosecutors promptly appealed the decision, meaning that he spends at least another 48 hours in custody, which in his case means rather harsh isolation.

    On the other hand, it appears that reports of a grand jury investigating an indictment under the 1917 espionage act may be baseless.

    Truth be told, a good prosecutor can find an sitting already sitting grand jury, and Mr. Assange from a legal perspective is certainly a ham sandwich.

    Were I a prosecutor, I would not begin any process until Assange were in Sweden, where extraditions appears to be more likely than in the UK.

    Of course, while this is going on, the internet is still being roiled by attacks on both sides of the issue, with Anonymous emerging from 4chan to hit the financial and IT companies that cut Wikileaks off, and other hackers going after Wikileaks, in a game of dueling DDOS attacks.

    Hanging over all this is Assange’s poison pill file, which has been distributed to tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people, waiting for the decryption key that will be distributed if anything happens to him or Wikileaks by a dozen or so of his colleagues.

    And then there is the absurdity that Amazon, after tossing Wikileaks from their servers, is now selling copies of the cables for the Kindles.

    In the mean time, here are the crucial government secrets that we now know as a result of the cables:

    Of course there is some truly sensitive and shocking information out there, specifically that, the DPRK (North Korea) was willing to take significant steps to  reassure the US and the ROK (South Korea) in exchange for an Eric Clapton concert in Pyongyang.

    Merciful heavens, we can’t let the citizenry know about that.

    The final word on this is Pentagon Papers leaker Daniel Ellsberg’s, “EVERY attack now made on WikiLeaks and Julian Assange was made against me and the release of the Pentagon Papers at the time.“

    Torpedo Parts Found at South Korean Ship Sinking

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    Just when you think that it cannot get any crazier, salvage crews have found bits of the propeller from the torpedo that sank the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan, and it has been identified as either Russian or Chinese in origin.

    So it’s pretty much a dead nuts cinch that it was a hostile act by the DPRK.

    Expect things to get messy on the Korean peninsula for the next few weeks.

    H/t Information Dissemination.

    My earlier post on the matter.

    George W. Bush Gives in to Axis of Evil

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    Or at least the one member of the axis: It appears that the U.S. dropping North Korea from terror list, as it had to promised to do in negotiations, and the DPRK is resuming dismantling its nuclear program.

    The Japanese are pissed off about this, what with the whole bizarre, “Kidnapping Japanese citizens,” thing still unresolved, but pretty much everyone else is happy about this development.

    It appears that South Korea will be sending a delayed shipment of steel to the DPRK, and we now have reports that the IAEA has had its access restored.

    Incompetent Condi Rice STILL Can’t Manage Her Way Out of a Paper Bag — DPRK Edition

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    Well, it appears, that once again Rice is more concerned with being a close confidant to the president than doing her job, and as a result, conflicts between the negotiators and the John Bolton clones in the arms control wing of the State Department have sabotaged the agreement on North Korean nuclear weapons.

    Under the proposal, heavily influenced by the State Department’s arms control experts, the U.S. requested “full access to all materials” at sites that might have had a nuclear purpose in the past. It sought “full access to any site, facility or location” deemed relevant to the nuclear program, including military facilities, according to the four-page document, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post. Investigators would be able to take photographs and make videos, remain on site as long as necessary, make repeated visits and collect and remove samples.

    It’s essentially what they insisted on Iraq, only the Iraqis had already lost a war, and signed an agreement ceding much sovereignty in that area.

    What’s more, we know who was pushing for a breakdown in the agreement:

    “I am notifying Congress of my intent to rescind North Korea’s designation as a state sponsor of terror in 45 days,” Bush announced June 26. “The next 45 days will be an important period for North Korea to show its seriousness of its cooperation. We will work through the six-party talks to develop a comprehensive and rigorous verification protocol. And during this period, the United States will carefully observe North Korea’s actions — and act accordingly.”

    But there was no written document linking North Korea’s performance on verification to its removal from the terror list, sources said. So when Bush let the 45 days pass without any action, North Korea denounced what it called “obviously a violation of the principle of ‘action for action’ essential for realizing denuclearization.”

    The Bush administration does not want a deal. They see it as weakness, and besides, California and Hawaii, the likely targets of a missile attack, don’t vote Republican.

    Clueless on the DPRK

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    It’s amazing how bloody clueless both Bush and His Evil Minions™ and the press covering this don’t get it, as typified by the hed, “U.S. Bewildered Over N. Korea Nuclear Defiance.”

    It’s very simple. While the folks in North Korea are not particularly trustworthy, there has been a consistent pattern where they have taken steps they have agreed to, and the US has refused to make the steps that it has agreed to.

    You could pull the DPRK off the list of “terrorist sponsoring states” in 15 minutes, and you could put them back in 15 minutes, but the brainless trust headed by Cheney and Rice won’t do anything ever, because keeping our side of the bargain is to their minds capitulation.

    The North Koreans are restarting their Yongbyon nuclear power plant because they have absolutely no faith in the word of the United States to keep the deal.

    DPRK Testing New Missile Engine

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    It appears that they are in response to the US refusing to take them off the terrorist list, as was previously agreed to.

    Seriously, taking them off the list is just a stroke of a pen, and can be reinstated with a stroke of a pen, but Bush and His Evil Minions&trade are so busy swinging their dicks that they are convincing the North Koreans that this is all some sort of ploy to destroy them.

    Fracking with paranoids for giggles when they have missiles and nukes is stupid, but for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade, stupid is as stupid does, I guess.