Category: South East Asia

TPP: the Fat Lady Ain’t Singing, but She Is Warming Up

No Comments

At the end of last month, the negotiations that were supposed to put the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) ended without an agreement.

What’s more, there wasn’t even a date set for a followup summit:

Trade negotiators from the United States and 11 other Pacific nations failed to reach final agreement on Friday, with difficult talks on the largest regional trade agreement ever deadlocking over protections for drug companies and access to agriculture markets on both sides of the Pacific.

Trade ministers, in a joint statement, said late Friday they had made “significant progress” and will return to their home countries to obtain high-level signoffs for a small number of final sticking points on the agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, with bilateral talks reconvening soon.

“There are an enormous number of issues that one works through at these talks, narrowing differences, finding landing zones,” said Michael B. Froman, the United States trade representative. “I am very impressed with the work that has been done. I am gratified by the progress that has been made.”

Still, the breakdown is a setback for the Obama administration, which had promoted the talks here as the final round ahead of an accord that would bind 40 percent of the world’s economy under a new set of rules for commerce.

This is a failure, and a big one.

In a normally unproductive summit, the Japanese would oblique.

When a Japanese diplomat says, “It would be difficult,” it should be read “No!” with the explanation point, and when a Japanese diplomat says that, “It would be very difficult, it’s the equivalent of “F%$# You White Man.”

This time, the Japanese Economy Minister, who is their lead on this deal, just explicitly stated that the US were too wimpy:

Japan has expressed concern about a loss of momentum in talks on a pan-Pacific trade pact after participants failed to agree to meet again this month to try to clinch a deal that would cover 40 percent of the global economy.

Ministers from the 12 nations negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would stretch from Japan to Chile, fell short of a deal at talks last month on the Hawaiian island of Maui, despite early optimism.

Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari, in a blog circulated on Tuesday, also questioned why the United States appeared to have lacked its usual “stubborn persistence” at those talks, despite a willingness of some countries to stay to try to reach an agreement.

If this were translated into standard American discourse, it would use language that would make George Carlin uncomfortable.

And from Australia, a country whose foreign policy is defined by a desperate need to be “In the Club”, the Trade Minister is saying that a deal is unlikely:

Australia’s trade minister, Andrew Robb, has appeared at the National Press Club in Canberra today, where he admitted that concluding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal is looking increasingly unlikely.

According to AAP, Rob said that sugar and dairy access remained key sticking points, along with motor vehicle assess between Mexico, the US, Canada and Japan. He also noted that “the closer we get to a US presidential election, the more prospect (there is) of it falling over”.

There is also the upcoming Canadian elections later this year.

Seeing as how this deal sucks, it’s a good thing that it appears to be comatose.

Reviewing Stories Over the Past Year, This One Wins the Award for Best “A Good Start”

No Comments

I did not notice this story when the Global Post published it in April, but when they republished the fact that Vietnam is executing corrupt bankers, I felt kind of jealous:

Editor’s note: This story was first published on April 3, 2014. GlobalPost is featuring it again as one of our must-reads of 2014.

BANGKOK — For the most part, American bankers whose rash pursuit of profit brought on the 2008 global financial collapse didn’t get indicted. They got bonuses.
Odds are that scandal would have played out differently in Vietnam, another nation struggling with misbehaving bankers.


The authoritarian Southeast Asian state doesn’t just send unscrupulous financiers to jail. Sometimes, it sends them to death row.

Amid a sweeping cleanup of its financial sector, Vietnam has sentenced three bankers to death in the past six months.

One duo now on death row embezzled roughly $25 million from the state-owned Vietnam Agribank. Their co-conspirators caught decade-plus prison sentences.

 I do not approve of capital punishment, but this whole “Decades-plus prison sentence” thing?  That I wholeheartedly approve.

Nope. Not at All Like a Brush War in Indochina.

No Comments

The inimitable Charlie Pierce pulls some quotes from the early 1960s:

My Esky colleague John H. Richardson whiles away the slow days by immersing himself in recently declassified CIA documents. (Buy his book to find out why, dammit.) This is a very valuable habit he has, at least to those of John’s friends who write political blogs for a living. So, the other day, he hipped me to some recently declassified CIA material, specifically National Intelligence Estimates dated April 17, 1963 and titled “Prospects In South Vietnam.” These concerned, among other things, the CIA’s assessment of the relative strength of the Viet Cong in our adopted Indochinese client state. There’s some material that seems almost unbearably sad in retrospect:

We believe that Communist progress has been blunted and that the situation is improving. Strengthened South Vietnamese capabilities and effectiveness, and particularly US involvement, are causing the Viet Cong great difficulty, although there are as yet no persuasive indications that the Communists have been grievously hurt.

………

For weapons, ammunition, and related supplies, the Viet Cong rely primarily upon capture from government forces.

………

Nevertheless, the heavy US involvement and close working relationships between US and Vietnamese personnel have fundamentally altered the outlook…Developments in the past year or two have gone some distance in establishing a basis for winning over the peasantry and in improving the efficiency and the civilian bureaucracy…

………

Developments during the last year or two also show some promise of resolving the political weaknesses, particularly that of insecurity in the countryside, upon which the insurgency has fed. However, the government’s capacity to embark on the broader measures required to translate military success into lasting political stability is questionable.

History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes.

We are so f%$#ed.

Why They are Protesting Against Democracy in Thailand

No Comments

Per capita GDP


Thai vs. Australian per capita GDP


Government Debt


Social (health) spending

Look at the graphs on economic statistics for Thailand.

Why is anyone complaining about results like this?

Anti government forces Bangkok have vowed to rid Thailand of all vestiges of Thaksin — including Thaksinomics. So let’s pause to cast a medium-term eye over the country’s economic performance during the period (2001 to the present) that has been dominated by Thaksin-esque policies.

 ………

 I’m sure there are plenty of other indicators and comparisons – good, not-so-good and bad – that could be used to plot Thailand’s economic performance since 2001 (comments on other indicators would be very welcome). But the overall point is that Thailand’s voters have some sound economic reasons to keep on electing Thaksin and his allies.

 Strong economic growth, and increasing government spending on health, welfare and rural development, didn’t start with Thaksin, but he and his allies have been able to effectively place growing prosperity at the heart of their political success.

What the protesters are objecting to is not economic growth, but rather they are objecting to the fact that there are benefits accruing to the rural peasants.

So the hoi polloi are doing better.

There are new roads, new bridges, new rural clinics, and the position of the rural poor has improved.

It has improved a lot, and their lot relative to the urban elites has also improved.

So the protestors are upset that poor rural families are no longer forced to sell their daughters into prostitution in the big cities, and this is why they want to remove any vestige of Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra while insisting that there be no elections.

When I say that, “The Thai protesters are revolting,” I am using the last word as an adjective, not a verb.

It is a Myth that US Forces Lost No Battles in the Vietnam War

1 Comment

That quote from the recently deceased General Vo Nguyen Giap is false, but we still find people claiming that neither the Viet Cong or the (then North) Vietnamese army ever won a battle.

David Petraeus was one of these people. He wrote that, “Military leaders recall US units never lost a battle,” in 1986.

This is something that you will hear said from members of the US Military all the time.

It it might be legitimately through provoking if it weren’t complete humbug.  A cursory examination reveals 70 lost battles in the Vietnam War.

Given that General Giap died a few days ago at the age of 102 (!), it behooves us to examine what happened in Vietnam, and Cambodia, and Laos, and ask how General Giap, and the people of Indochina beat us.

The military, as been asking a slightly different question, “How did we lose,” and so blame the American public.

TIE Fighters Pics for you Star Wars Fans

No Comments

My bad. These aren’t TIE Fighters, these are Thai fighters, specifically the SAAB Gripens that are to be delivered to Thailand.

The SAAB has a contract to deliver at least 6 of the diminutive fighters to Thailand, and the first of these aircraft has been assembled, and has taken flight.

My bad…No Star Wars here.

Here, have some video fighter jet pr0n by way of apology for misleading you.

In the words of Emily Latella, “never mind”.

Economics Update

No Comments

We have a bumpy road ahead on the economy, with
retail sales falling 1.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 1.2%, both of which indicating that there are still deflationary and recessionary pressures out there.

In regulation, there is finally an Obama choice to run the TARP, Fannie Mae CEO Herb Allison, replacing Bush holdover Neel “Cash and Carry” Kashkari, who along with Hank Paulson, should be in jail for the fraud perpetrated on the US taxpayers.

We also have some news from the moniliner insurers, after a long break, with Moody’s downgrading Ambac to junk status.

Dead man walking.

That being said, there are more signs that credit is thawing, with the LIBOR, the rate big banks charge each other for loans, falling at the fastest rate in 3 months.

In currency, we have news from Asia, where Singapore has devalued its currency by lowering interest rates in an attempt to stem its recession, the idea being that its export based economy would be boosted by a falling currency.

This is a fairly limited option for most nations, as many nations that need the help are debtor nations, while Singapore is a creditor nation.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is up vs. the Euro and down vs the Yen.

Oil fell below $50/bbl today.

Epic Fail: Condoleeza Edition

No Comments

Condoleeza Rice, once more attempting to make the world look like it did before the USSR collapsed, has failed again, this time in attempting to form a NATO style security union.

In 1992, she suggested that Boris Yeltsin not be accorded the formalities of a head of state, because she thought that the USSR was coming back “real soon now”, and since then, she has done her level best to recreate a Soviet style menace out of Russia.

I imagine it’s because her so called area of expertise (see the Yeltsin example above), the USSR, has gone away, and so she is trying to recreate academic relevance.

Don’t worry dear, you sucked at being a Sovietologist too.

Yes, Myanmar, There is a Panty Clause

No Comments

Not sure if I can add much to this:

Panties sought for Myanmar protest

Two Canadian human rights group in Quebec are calling for women to mail panties to Myanmar’s embassy to protest the ruling military junta.

The Quebec Women’s Federation and the activist group Rights and Democracy claim the secretive military leaders in the country formerly known as Burma are superstitious and believe contact with women’s underwear will usurp their power, CTV News reported.

…

Myanmar Seizes Aid Supplies from the UN

No Comments

This is my first post on the subject, because I have very little to say. I am not a student of the region, and what can you say about a tragedy like the cyclone and its associates storm surge.

This story, where authorities in Myanmar seized aid supplies from the UN, puzzles me.

I am aware of the paranoia and xenophobia of the military dictatorship there, but I’m not clear why they would not allow in aid workers in a time like this.

Burma: Thousands Mead in Massacre

No Comments

This is bloody awful.

Burma: Thousands dead in massacre of the monks dumped in the jungle

By MARCUS OSCARSSON – More by this author » Last updated at 15:04pm on 1st October 2007

Comments Comments (69)
Thousands of protesters are dead and the bodies of hundreds of executed monks have been dumped in the jungle, a former intelligence officer for Burma’s ruling junta has revealed.

The most senior official to defect so far, Hla Win, said: “Many more people have been killed in recent days than you’ve heard about. The bodies can be counted in several thousand.”

Mr Win, who spoke out as a Swedish diplomat predicted that the revolt has failed, said he fled when he was ordered to take part in a massacre of holy men. He has now reached the border with Thailand.

….

Burma’s angry monks ‘excommunicate’ junta by refusing donations – Independent Online Edition > Asia

No Comments

I have to say that refusing alms as a protest is rather beyond my cultural experience, but it appears that this is a rather powerful protest in the context of Burmese Buddhism. This is both perplexing and interesting.

On the other hand, this statement from the monks is quite clear to my Western eyes, “The violent, mean, cruel, ruthless, pitiless kings – the great thieves who live by stealing from the national treasury – have killed a monk at Pakokku and also arrested reverend clergymen by trussing them up with rope. They beat and tortured, verbally abused and threatened them.“

One hopes that the junta is overthrown sooner rather than later.