Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Supersonic Business Jet Maker Looks at Sonic Boom Mitigation

Arion is looking at using differences between air pressure and density to fly at speeds of up to Mach 1.2 without a boom. (Paid Subscription Required)

Basically, the speed of sound goes down as altitude goes up, and if the shock wave enters air where the speed is no longer supersonic, it cuts off.

Needless to say, the implementation would be problematic. You would need accurate real time temperature and barometric data to ensure that your shock would not hit the ground:

“We see no difficulties in its application,” says Richard Tracy, Aerion’s chief technology officer. “It requires atmospheric information, which is available over populated areas where it is needed. It’s a matter of accessing that data from the aircraft.” To ensure the sonic boom never reaches the ground, the company has picked a Mach cutoff altitude—the height at which the shockwave goes subsonic—of 5,000 ft., to provide a wide margin for uncertainty caused by aging or gaps in the data.

Based on temperatures and winds at or near the surface, the aircraft would be flown at a GPS speed relative to the airmass that ensures its shockwave never intersects with the surface. “With no wind, in a standard atmosphere, we could fly at Mach 1.15-1.16,” says Tracy. But the exact speed would vary with winds, season, time of day and direction of flight. “The Mach number in the cockpit could be Mach 1.03 to 1.3 or so.”

If supersonic flight was to be permitted over the U.S., Aerion calculates Mach cutoff would slice 1 hr. and 18 min. off a New York to Los Angeles flight compared with a conventional Mach 0.85 business jet, and trim 40 min. if compared with the Aerion SSBJ’s Mach 0.99 subsonic overland cruise speed.

India Putting Tejas Light Fighter on Fast Track

It appears that the Indian defense establishment has noticed that something is wrong when a small, relatively austere fighter program enters its 25th year without any fielded aircraft. (Paid Subscription Required)

Development started in 1983 for a very unambitious program, as compared to the 1981 for the F-22 with a formal entry into service in 2004, and India still needs to use a foreign engine, the F-404, to power the the aircraft, because the indigenous engine the Kaveri, is still not ready for prime time.

It’s somewhat reassuring to see a procurement process more screwed up than that of the good old USA.

Eurofighter and Dassault Tell the Dutch to Pound Sand

Both companies have refused to provide the Dutch updated technical information because they believe that the game is fixed, and the JSF will be selected.

Let’s look at the rundown:

  • The Dutch have been full partners in JSF development since the late 1990s.
  • They have already dumped something in excess of €500 into the JSF.
  • The “independent” evaluation will be conducted by, from Dutch defense research institute TNO Defense, Security and Safety; the country’s National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR); and RAND Europe,” but both TNO and NLR are already hip deep in JSF development work.

The only reason that SAAB is taking the competition seriously is because their numbers are so much better than those of the JSF (or the Typhoon or Rafale) that they have a chance of winning, or getting some orders in a high-low procurement.

Even the Poles Recognize a Lame Duck*

Well it appears that the Polish have rejected the Bush Administration’s missile defense deal, saying that they, “have not reached a satisfactory result on the issue of increasing the level of Polish security.”

Essentially, I think that they realize that the potential damage to their relationship is not worth what the US is offering, and they believe that any US good will from accepting will expire when Bush and His Evil Minions leave office.

When the Poles recognize Bush’s lame duckitude, it’s game over.

*I am not minimizing Polish intellect. It’s merely that they are currently the most vociferous knee jerk supporters of the US in Europe right now.

Dutch to consider Gripen NG for F-16 replacement

Well, the Kabuki dance that is the Dutch F-16 replacement selection has added a few new steps, with them adding the Gripen NG into the mix and deselecting the Super-Hornet and Raptor for being too large and to expensive respectively.

Honestly, if I were working for Eurofighter, Dassault, or SAAB, I wouldn’t bother.

The Dutch have already sunk around €550 million into the F-35 JSF, and I think that pretty much locks them into two alternatives, the JSF, and upgrading its existing F-16s.

Of course, I was wrong on the tanker deal, so YMMV.

USAF Wanted to Deploy F-22 to Iraq

But SecDef Bob Gates shot the idea down.*

Gates was right. The F-22 would be as useful in Iraq as tits on a bull.

There is no sophisticated air defense system, no opposing air power, and the aircraft need to get as low as possible in order to minimize collateral damage.

My guess is that the USAF wanted to deploy some Raptors in order to pitch them to Congress as “combat proben”, and Gates was having none of that.

When you also consider the fact that Iran would undoubtedly consider the F-22 being in theater as a prelude to a sneak attack, it would further destabilize the region.

*Pun completely intended.

How the F-35 Will Go Together

Stephen Trimble, of Flight International, got an approved for public release Powerpoint snap shot of the manufacturing process for the F-35.

It was too large to post, but I managed to work around Microflaccid’s image export utility without editing the registry (the trick is that you change the page size to ginormus), and so you can look at the full chart as a gif (994K) by clicking on the image.

As the good Mr. Trimble notes, this process is how thousands of JSFs are supposed to be manufactured over the next few years.

Sweden Tying Procurement of Gripen to Aggressive Export Program

Sweden is planning to transition from its earlier model Gripens to the more capable E/F models, (Paid Subscription Required) with improved payload and range capabilities.

The idea is that SAAB will find it easier to sell the aircraft abroad if the line is already for the Swedish military.

I still think that this aircraft is a winner simply because it so much cheaper to own and operate than its competition.

By mid next year, they should be testing the AESA radar, improved avionics, and the ability to carry larger external tanks.

Economics Update

In case you are wondering about inflation, retail gasoline just hit a new high, breaking $4.10/gallon, even thoughoil prices backed off a little bit.

FWIW, it’s not just oil. BHP Billiton and China’s Baosteel just negotiated a 96.5%rate hike.

The currency markets are predicting that the ECB won’t raise rates again, so the dollar strengthened a bit.

Finally, in real estate, we are seeing soaring home equity line of credit delinquencies.

Kafka Lives

U.S. District Court Judge Vaughn Walker dismissed the lawsuit by the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation claiming that the US government has wiretapped conversations with their lawyers, because the document that confirms this is classified:

A federal judge in San Francisco has dismissed a lawsuit that claimed the government illegally wiretapped conversations between lawyers and a client, a now-defunct charity suspected of terrorism.

The lawsuit relied on a classified call log the government turned over by mistake to the client, the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation. U.S. District Court Judge Vaughn Walker barred the foundation from using the document and dismissed the suit, according to the New York Times and the San Francisco Chronicle. He gave the foundation 30 days to file a new lawsuit using publicly available information.

Catch 22.

Mugabe: African Union calls for national unity government in Zimbabwe | World news | The Guardian

As is expected, the African Union studiously avoided any criticism of Mugabe, though it did call for a unity government.

This is to be expected. After all many of these leaders are in place through electoral processes that are similar to what happened in Zimbabwe, though obviously less extreme.

The AU is hoping for something similar to what happened in Kenya, where the person who stole the election remained in power but had to throw some patronage positions to the oppositions.

Meanwile, Tsvangirai has declined to negotiate a junior position in a unity government. He is saying that conditions are not right for talks.

This is not surprising, considering that violence and murder are still going on.

Additionally, I believe that Tsvangirai is explicitly rejecting any involvement in the negotiations by Thabo Mbeki, which is not surprising, since Mbeki is Mugabe’s butt boy.

The EU is calling Mugabe’s government illegitimate, and demanding that » Tsvangirai lead any unity government, though, unsurprisingly South Africa is rejecting both.

An indication that the instability may spread is the fact that Botswana has sealed off its border with Zimbabwe.

It’s unclear whether this is because it intends to sever relations, or if it is worried about refugee flows, or both.

Economics Update

As expected, today was a busy day, we had the ECB raising its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 4.25%, though investors were heartened that the accompanying statement appeared to make further hikes less likely.

We also had 62,000 jobs lost in the US, though the statistical witches brew known as the official unemployment rate stayed at 5.5%.

Of course, the “adjustment” for April and May added another 52K lost jobs.

Once again, I have to point you to Barry Ritholtz, who notes that the adjustments to that number are sick:

June 2008 was 177k versus June 2007 155k
Construction Gains +29k
Professional & Business Services +22k
Leisure and Hospitality +86k

Construction gained workers? Leisure and hospitality picked up 86K jobs? When the number of people traveling is dropping?

We need a truth and reconciliation commission for our economic stats generating agencies.

I would also note, as Mr. Ritholtz does, that the number of new unemployment claims jumped to 404,000, which does not include those people who will now get an additional 13 weeks.

What’s more, the SM nonmanufacturing index fell to 48.2% from 51.7%, indicating the service sector is taking it on the chin too.

It appears, however, that investors expected worse, as the dollar actually strengthened after all this.

Behold the power of low expectations.

However, despite the dollar strengthening, oil hit a new record, hitting $145.85/bbl mid day, and retail gasoline hit a new record too.

In real estate, we are seeing home mortgage rates down for the first time in 3 weeks, and we have demand for office space shrinking.

Chart pr0n: