Author: Matthew G. Saroff

What Republican Rule Has Given Us

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OK, I’m a member of a by-invitation-only BBS, and one of the members Hoop, wondered why the candidates don’t tell the American public the truth about how badly America as a nation has been screwed up by republican policies, he thinks that:

This is an opportunity that comes knocking but once a lifetime.

Yet both Democratic candidates are like deer in the headlights when it comes to outlining an economic picture of the future of the US.

Perhaps they’re not the leaders they portend to be.

So I thought about for a bit, and said to myself, “OK, let’s see…as an honest leader with vision, here is what an honest candidate with vision would say.

  • 20 0f the last 28 years have had Republicans in the White House and their goal has been to bankrupt the country so that we can not take of our poor or needy and so that the ordinary folk live hand to mouth and cannot work together for a better life. They have done this because they and their rich friends and supporters do better when ordinary people are powerless.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have also decided that it is in their interest to keep the American people afraid of external threats, so they are on a constant quest to find and create new enemies to scare us, so we won’t review their policies, and so we will spend our money on guns and prisons.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have aggressively created a fear of people who don’t look like us and of random criminal violence against us in order to make us waste money on putting more people in prison than any other society in the history of human kind.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have put roadblocks in front of attempts to create meaningful energy independence, because it requires a large military to protect those supply lines.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have created a system of world trade that ignores the rights of the people and makes it secondary to the profits of the banker.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have systematically attempted to replace the public good with the concept of corporate profit in our society.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have mounted an aggressive assault on the standard of living of ordinary Americans through low wage policies.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have masked this drop in standard of living by coming up with even more obscure ways for people to go into debt, (including College debt) so that they create the illusion of well being while being a slave to that debt.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have steadfastly destroyed meaningful attempts to help people get basic medical care.
    • And they have succeeded.
  • They have attempted to replace a society in which the manufacture of useful items, into one where parasites make money by trading between each other to the detriment of our population and our industrial base
    • And they have succeeded.

Because of this, while [insert candidate here] is in office, we sill see:

  • Oil leave the dollar standard, and its price going to more than $200/bbl.
  • The dollar plummeting against foreign currencies.
  • Inflation in the double digits for the foreseeable future.
  • Food shortages nationwide, as transportation becomes increasingly expensive.
  • Many of the suburbs becoming abandoned ghost towns, because those transportation costs.
  • Civil disorder and unrest.
  • The collapse of our hideously expensive military under its own weight.
  • Your children and your parents dying for want of proper medical care.

At this point I guess that the candidate could say, “I offer you nothing but blood, sweat and tears,” and while the historians might like that, the voters certainly would not.

Maybe it should wait for the inauguration, because if you say it before the elections, you will make Barry Goldwater’s defeat look like a ride at the kiddie park.

Too Batsh&# Insane for the Constitution Party

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Yes, even that merry band of Christofascists have that Alan Keyes just isn’t their type, so instead, they nominated wingnut talk show host Chuck Baldwin for president.

When the Talibaptists eschew the most priminent right wing nut-job in the United States, he disowned his daughter for being gay, you it means that you are either too crazy, or too black for them.

For Mr. Keyes, it’s probably both.

OK, this Is Corruption, and if it is Not Criminal, it Should Be

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Dean Baker notices the following bit of self-admitted corruption in a New York Times article on former Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin:

Mr. Rubin encouraged Goldman to move into more treacherous markets like proprietary trading and commodities trading. Even so, he now says he was always concerned about the dangers posed by risky futures and derivatives trades, having seen how the pell-mell use of futures contracts exacerbated the 1987 stock market crash.

Shortly before leaving Goldman to head up President Clinton’s National Economic Council, Mr. Rubin says, he met with Richard B. Fisher, the chairman of Morgan Stanley, to discuss the idea of imposing stricter margin requirements on futures trading. Mr. Rubin says the idea died after the Chicago Board of Trade told him “we will make sure Goldman Sachs never trades another future on the C.B.O.T. if this went ahead.”

Bob Rubin just said that he changed his recommendations policy for the benefit of his company in has capacity as head of the National Economic Council. This is completely corrupt, and he is freely admitting it.

Where is one of Bush’s DoJ political vendettas when you need them?

Washington Post Misses the Point, Quelle Surprise

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This time, it’s about the aggressive policy to outsource civil service positions to private contractors, where they say that the zeal of Bush and His Evil Minions™ is because they ,”entered office with a deep skepticism of government. He saw competitive sourcing as a way to improve agencies’ performance.”

Any objective evaluation of Republicans, and government, including Bush, shows that they have no interest at all in improving agencies performance. One need only read their own declarations. They find government programs, with the exception of the state security apparatus, to be evil, and to the degree that it is less efficient, they see this lack of effectiveness as an independent good.

Contracting out government work is not about efficiency, it’s about patronage and rewarding contributors. It frees up money to shovel to one’s supporters.

Ranks of Southern Baptists Are Shrinking

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We now learn that both baptism and total membership in the Southern Baptists appear to be on the decline. It appears that not just Jimmy Carter is disenchanted with their increasingly strident stands of secular political issues.

While it is clear that the founding fathers demanded a separation of Church and State because they thought that organized religion was toxic to good governance*, there is also the issue of blowback when an a religion spot welds itself to a political party that is in the descendance.

In a very real way, they have been done in by the same thing that crippled them after the Civil War, when their origin as a sect was driven by their support of slavery.

It could be argued that the negative consequences of the circumstances of their founding led to the sect, and its worshipers, being held in some distrust until the 1960s or 1970s, with the best guess as to the definitive end of this status being Carter’s election as president in 1976.

The lesson to be learned is the lesson that Molière so eloquently demonstrated in 1664, that religion can often be a convenient refuge for scoundrels.

*Ask the brave anti-Mullah activists in Iran. They would agree too. Organized religionis completely toxic to good governance,

No, I Haven’t Worked There

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Though I am currently working on similar projects, basically end of life stuff in the nuclear fuel process.*

In any case, I’m glad not to be working on a new shelter for the Chernobyl reactor. It’s a no win situation. Even if you get it right, no one will know for years and years while the costs continue to mount.

Truth be told, “Even if you get it right, no one will know for years and years while the costs continue to mount,” is a good metaphor for civilian nuclear power in general.

Price tag $1.4 billion and climbing.

*No specifics. My client company’s business (I’m a contractor) is their business, and it is unethical, as well as unwise, to discuss this in detail.†
†I feel no similar compunction about commenting about how a co-worker resembles Captain Jean Luc Picard. Since this does not, nor could it be construed as sensitive or compromising information.

Well Hello Dalai Lama

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Well, China is now saying that it will hold talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama, and I just could not resist the pun.

The Dalai Lama has welcomed the opportunity to talk, though state run media seems to indicate that the Chinese are not quite as eager to talk as they are eager to be thought of as willing to talk, with the standard “running dog” screeds continuing.

My guess is that in the end, nothing meaningful happens, and that the Chinese claim that the Tibetans were unreasonable.

In the United States, Any Cop Can Shoot Any Black Man in the Line of Duty, and Get off Scott Free

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Let’s be clear about this a crime was committed when police pumped 50 bullets into Shawn Bell’s car.

At the very least, a refusal to test police for blood alcohol level, some of whom were on duty, and drinking, as part of their undercover work was obstruction of justice.

One of the pertinent quotes is, “Detective Michael Oliver, who fired 31 bullets the night of the shooting.” That means that he emptied a clip into the car, reloaded, rechambered a round, and emptied another magazine, assuming he started with one in the chamber, and a 15 round clip.

So, you have drunk vice cops on a sting looking for a few strippers who might go a little bit too far, and its open season on black folks, and an acquittal by a judge who knows that if he wants to go higher, he will need the support of the police department when considered for a promotion.

The depressing thing is that when all is said and done, the New York City PD is one of the best in the nation.

God Bless America.

FBI Wants to to Seize Control of the Backbone to See if You Gamble or Watch Pr0n

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Really, I’m serious on this, though this could come as no surprise. It is the organizational imperative for law enforcement to ask for permission to spy on everyone all the time without oversight, as FBI Chief Mueller states:

I think legislation has to be developed that balances on one hand, the privacy rights of the individual who are receiving the information, but on the other hand, given the technology, the necessity of having some omnibus search capability utilizing filters that would identify the illegal activity as it comes through and give us the ability to preempt that illegal activity where it comes through a choke point as opposed to the point where it is diffuse on the Internet

(Emphasis Ars Technica)

Obvious issue that the US does not own the internet, and it appears from his statements that he wants to be able to shut down the traffic with no judicial review, whether it be a BBS that they determine to be “terrorist”, or illegal betting in the form of an office “March Madness” pool, or fantasy baseball.

They will also be able to monitor what you buy at an online bookstore, and the content of your emails.

What’s more, in an increasingly politicized Justice Department, the possibilities for selective prosecution just boggle the mind.

Economics Update

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I think that the best indication that we are well into a recession is that unpaid utility bills, as well as service cutoffs, are going through the proverbial roof. People can’t afford the mortgages, or the utilities, or so it seems.

BTW this is a very good pictorial representation of the credit freeze:

Click pic for PDF. (H/t econobrowser)

Oil hit an all time high, less than a dime less than $120/bbl, which means that inflation is still a problem, but don’t tell helicopter Ben, because the markets have already priced in another rate cut from the Fed.

As I’ve said before, it won’t matter, the fed is pushing on a string, but the fact that the Euro zone looks to be in for a round of slow growth and inflation, aka stagflation, with inflation of over 3% (their goal is 2%), so they will likely raise rates, as the ECB does not have maintaining employment as a part of its charter, just controlling inflation.

Rates going up in Europe should push the dollar down, which is why I find it confusing that the done better against the Euro in the past three days than it has since 2005, but I’m not sure how long this will last, as Japanese investors are moving away from US treasuries, which is significant, as they are the largest holders of US treasuries.

In real estate we have a new record for vacant homes in the US, 2.9%, the highest level since record keeping began in 1959.

Note that this does not include rental properties, and it’s pretty grim.

For those of you who are considering picking up something cheap in foreclosure, be warned, trash outs are way up Trashouts, here are stories from Massachusetts and Nevada.

We are talking serious stuff, sinks and bathtubs ripped out, and in some cases, vandalism along the lines of cement down the pipes. Factor that into a sales price.

I would also argue that it’s likely that we may shortly start seeing violence against people who purchase at auction, so do not enter into this likely.

Passover Finally Over

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After 8 days, I’m seriously jonesing for some Chametz (leavened bread products).

Additionally, with my Orthodox Mother in Law here, we were in full no light switches, etc. mode for 4 of the 8 days of Pesach (actually 5 of 9, when one considers that Shabbat immediately preceded Pesach).

It’s a relief to be able to eat normal food again, though I feel kind of guilty at being relieved.

Years in the desert vs. a few days of eating bad food, I feel kind of wimpy complaining about it.

Off for the Next Two Days, So Here is a Question to Ponder

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Last two days of Passover are Yom Tovim, so I’m off* again.

So here is my question:

Is It Just Me, Or is the Whole World Going to Hell in a Handbasket?

We are having a food crisis, an energy crisis, the economic meltdown, etc., and everything seems to be collapsing at the same time.

Are we heading for some sort of really scary triple witching hour?

Because I have this feeling that something big and awful, at least for the US is barrelling down at us.

*Truth be told, I’m always a little bit off.

Krugman Nails it Again

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As usual, Krugman gets to the heart of the matter

The question Democrats, both inside and outside the Obama campaign, should be asking themselves is this: now that the magic has dissipated, what is the campaign about? More generally, what are the Democrats for in this election?

That should be an easy question to answer. Democrats can justly portray themselves as the party of economic security, the party that created Social Security and Medicare and defended those programs against Republican attacks — and the party that can bring assured health coverage to all Americans.

They can also portray themselves as the party of prosperity: the contrast between the Clinton economy and the Bush economy is the best free advertisement that Democrats have had since Herbert Hoover.

But the message that Democrats are ready to continue and build on a grand tradition doesn’t mesh well with claims to be bringing a “new politics” and rhetoric that places blame for our current state equally on both parties.

And unless Democrats can get past this self-inflicted state of confusion, there’s a very good chance that they’ll snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this fall.

His basic point is a valid one the voters are not looking for reform. They are looking for the policies that make their lives better.

To the degree that a candidate makes reform the message to the exclusion of policy, there is an emptiness that can be exploited.

Level 3 Asset Bingo

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Here is an interesting commentary on the rather dubious nature of some of the assets on wall street.

Here’s Rule No. 1 from Wall Street’s public-relations playbook: If the company you run has big losses on hard-to-value assets, scream your head off about the accounting rules.

And what if the squishy values result in huge gains instead, as they have in the not-so-distant past? Rule No. 2: Stay mum about it for as long as the rules allow.

Basically he is noting that the various brokerages are booking a lot of profits on level 3 assets, but level three assets have no regular market to independently determine value, so we are back to smoke and mirror.

Go read, if you dare.

Stupidest F&%$ing Guy on the Planet is Fired

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Yes, Georgetown has decided not to renew Douglas Feith’s contract

Speaking of Iraq, the Georgetown Hoya newspaper last week quoted a student saying she was ‘displeased that university officials have not asked’ former Pentagon undersecretary Douglas Feith’to return to teach next year.’

Asked about Feith’s status, Robert Gallucci, dean of Georgetown’s foreign service school, told us that when Feith was hired — something that caused an uproar among the faculty — it was understood he ‘was on a two-year appointment.’ Any decision not to renew should not be seen as ‘a judgment on his performance,’ Gallucci said, noting that Feith’s students’ ‘course evaluations were really good.’

Good move.

A better one would have been never to hire the son of a bitch.

Economics Update

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The dollar is doing better now, $1.5613:€1.0000, as I type this, which is about 3% stronger than when it was above $1.60.

I put down most of the movement over the past week to people betting on what the Fed will do in interest rates, and the consensus that it will not cut.

Oil, however, just went up again, as did gasoline, because of reports of a pipeline attack in Nigeria. The reality is that supplies are so tight that even a minor disruption causes a minor panic.

The New York Times has discovered that the housing crisis has moved to tony Greenwich, CT. And so they cover it with wringing hands, because it interests their readers.

For the rest of us, the fact that the mosts states are having financial meltdowns, and many are near broke, because of falling tax revenues, are a matter of greater concern.

Also, Consumer confidence is at a 26 year low. That’s as in 1982, when we were at 10% unemployment, and so consumers are scaling way back on spending.

In a sign of the apocalypse, Moody’s is downgrading some more of the Alt-A mortgage backed slop. Who knew that a ratings firm would actually do its job.

It’s been a busy day for AMBAC, the monoline insurer, with a report that it may need to seek more capital after posting a $1.66 billion dollar loss for the quarter. Further confirming this report is the fact that their interim CEO is saying that there are no liquidity issues and that its ratings are solid.

S&P is back stopping Ambac on this explicitly stating that the loss will not lead to a downgrade.

Of course if the ratings agencies, or for that matter the financial markets, were at all honest, most the monoliners would already be rated as junk.