Author: Matthew G. Saroff

US Claims DPRK-Syria Nuclear Ties

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Sounds familiar *Cough* Iraq *Cough*? Don’t worry, we have video taped evidence, so there can be no question that…what????

Oh, we don’t have a video tape. We have a video presentation of a PowerPoint presentation, so what we have is something that is very close to Colin Powell’s infamous UN presentation (full disclosure, I know people who were involved int he technical end of the production):

A US official, requesting anonymity, told AFP: “There are still photographs of the facility as part of the video, but it’s a video presentation, like a Powerpoint presentation. It’s not a video of the facility.”

Just to remind everyone, we have no credibility on this:

Syrian Ambassador Imad Moustapha yesterday angrily denounced the U.S. and Israeli assertions. ‘If they show a video, remember that the U.S. went to the U.N. Security Council and displayed evidence and images about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I hope the American people will not be as gullible this time around,’ he said.

From your mouth to God’s ear.

Hillary is Raising Good Money, Will She Throw It After Bad Money

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First, we have Clinton raising $10 million in the day after the Pennsylvania, and from a few days before, we have reports of significant indebtedness to her coterie of advisors.

This picture is just the amount owed to Penn’s firm, which is money that has been supremely poorly spent.

I think that it is highly unlikely that Clinton will outraise Obama through the rest of the primaries, and so this sh$# needs to stop for her to be viable.

Truth to be told this this sh$# needs to stop for all Democrats.

There is a professional parasite class inside the beltway, and it is paid on commission, so we get too much advertising, not enough ground game, and no interest in being more efficient, since increases in efficiency reduce their paycheck.

Their names are Penn, Shrum, Brazile, Begala, Grunwald, Trippi, etc.

They go on press shows where they puff themselves, and their overpriced consultancies, up and do little for candidates.

They don’t have faces for TV. Mark Penn looks like a bloody poster child for sex without partners.

If there is one good thing about Karl Rove, it’s that when he worked for Bush and His Evil Minions™, he stayed in the background.

These people are part of the corrupt, venal, self serving, elitist, and incompetent DC beltway community, and the elected leaders Democratic party need to put a leash on these idiots.

The Republicans have done so for some time, starting well before Ed Rendell got purged for his walking around money comments.

It’s time for Democrats to start winning because of their senior campaign staff, not in spite of their senior campaign staff.

Telco Immunity Update

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First, it appears that Steny Hoyer is working a capitulation compromise on a FISA update, but interestingly enough, the Vichy Blue Dog Dems are not in the least bit interested in talking to Republicans about immunity.

What the Vichy Blue Dog Democrats realize, and what the Quisling Hoyer does not, is that their constituents have their back.

When the Vichy Blue Dog Dems went home, they were not inundated by angry phone calls, they were given high fives for standing up to the least popular president ever.

Not one step back.

Insurer Problems on a Much Smaller, and Much Larger Scale

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This is about health insurance, and obviously these policies, whose payouts typically max out at less than a million dollars, are smaller than the monoliner’s policies, but this is the tip of the iceberg.

UnitedHealth Group is taking a major hit because fewer and fewer employers can afford to buy its product.

The healthcare crisis is real and ongoing, and we are going 90mph towards a brick wall.

Food Crisis Update

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I guess the part of the story we expect is this:

The rising prices are “threatening to plunge more than 100 million people on every continent into hunger,” Josette Sheeran, executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Program, said on the agency’s Web site Tuesday.

Foreign starvation, hand wringing over biofuels, etc.

Nothing to worry about here, we’re Americans…right???

WRONG

We are seeing severe shortages of rye flour, with no domestic supplies being available around July, and there are currently only 27 days wheat supply.

Additionally, we are seeing panic buying, which is forcing big box retailers to restrict bulk purchases of rice, so that they don’t run out.

We already have hunger in the US, just look at our overburdened food pantries, and it is going to get worse.

Eddie Haskell David Petraeus to Head CENTCOM

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Great. This is a man who has staked his personal reputation in Iraq, and now they want him to allocate resources between Iraq and Afghanistan. I wouldn’t expect much perspective here.

Even more disturbing are his lies regarding Iran, which implies that Bush and His Evil Minions™ now have someone who be willing to attack Iran without question.

Furthermore, this will create a problem for an eventual Democratic nominee, because It’s clear that Petraeus will be a voice for Iraq forever, otherwise he looks like the charlatan he is, and there will be political blowback if they try to remove him from the post.

My hope would be that the hearings for his appointment would be scheduled for sometime in late January, 2009.

One Possible Answer to What the Republican October Surprise Will Be

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GMU Professor Jeremy Mayer suggests that it will be an overseas arrest for war crimes of some prominent Bush administration official.

While I think that they are war criminals and should be tried, the reaction of the American public will be bellicose and jingoistic, playing to the base lizard brain of hatred, bigotry, and fear of the other that is at the core of Republican electoral success.

Remember Lt. William Calley. A poor officer and a murderer who shot a little boy in the back, but to the American public, he was a hero.

Microsoft to Customers: Drop Dead, DRM Edition

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Once upon a time, there was a company called Microsoft, and it was a bad company.

One day, they created a music shop, called MSN music, which was even worse.

Then the bad people at Microsoft created the the Zune* store, anddecided to Dump MSN Music.

So, effective August 31, 2008, Microsoft is pulling the DRM keys on the music:

MSN Entertainment and Video Services general manager Rob Bennett sent out an e-mail this afternoon to customers, advising them to make any and all authorizations or deauthorizations before August 31. “As of August 31, 2008, we will no longer be able to support the retrieval of license keys for the songs you purchased from MSN Music or the authorization of additional computers,” reads the e-mail seen by Ars. “You will need to obtain a license key for each of your songs downloaded from MSN Music on any new computer, and you must do so before August 31, 2008. If you attempt to transfer your songs to additional computers after August 31, 2008, those songs will not successfully play.”

This doesn’t just apply to the five different computers that PlaysForSure allows users to authorize, it also applies to operating systems on the same machine (users need to reauthorize a machine after they upgrade from Windows XP to Windows Vista, for example). Once September rolls around, users are committed to whatever five machines they may have authorized—along with whatever OS they are running.

So you bought it, you paid† for it, and now you have nothing.

This isn’t just Microflaccid, this is what the music and movie industries want to be their business model.

You buy the music, and then they change the rules, and make you buy it again.

*Yes, this was bad too.
†And probably overpaid for it.

View From North of the Border

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Murray Dobbin has an interesting perspective on the “harmonization” and “integration” of Canada with the US, Americanize Me? No Thanks. He thinks that it’s ill advised, and his first example is quite illustrative:

Now we find out that despite recommendations from the Canadian Pediatric Society and the Canadian Cancer Society that Health Canada dramatically increase the recommended daily does of Vitamin D, the federal agency refuses to do so. Why? Because it is committed to “harmonizing” Canadian nutrition standards with those in the United States.

The interesting thing about Vitamin D is that there are two sources for this, diet, and sunlight, as the human body manufactures it when the skin is exposed to ultraviolet.*

Given the specifics of Canada, further north, less sunlight, the idea that they would need more dietary D is abundantly clear.

More generally, he finds America as a government completely dysfunctional†, America as a society paranoid morass generally bereft of morality†, and America as an economy as an “emerging economic basket case on pace to self destruct.”†

It’s a good read, particularly for Canadians who need to deal with Stephen Harper style boneheads.

*It’s why we have white people in the world. The layer in the skin that manufactures vitamin is beneath the pigment layer, so paler people make more Vitamin D for a given amount of sunlight, so in light starved regions, it favors the pale.
†I Agree

WTF, 49% of the Vote? By a Dem? In MO-1?

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Well, they just had a special election in Missouri’s 1st congressional district.

No one got an outright majority, but the Democrat, Travis Childers, got 49% of the vote to the Republican Greg Davis’s 46%.

There is still a runoff, but note that in this this district Bush beat Kerry 62.24% to 37.03% in 2004.

The fact that a Democrat was going to the runoff is encouraging. The fact that the Democrat won the plurality of the votes is astonishing, particularly considering the fact that the RNCC outspent the DNCC by more than 2:1.

The cynic in me wonders how Dems will screw this up in the next 4-½ months. It will be difficult, but somehow they will manage.

Airbus Has a Neat Concept, but a Bogus Patent

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Airbus has filed a patent for what it considers an innovative trijet design.

What they are arguing is that three smaller engines will weigh less than two larger ones, that the noise from the third engine will be mitigated by the “trough” created by the tail configuration, and that the smaller engines will allow a shorter and lighter landing gear.

I don’t think that it’s going anywhere, because the two jet/three jet question has been answered now for some time, the additional maintenance, etc. just ain’t worth it.

As to the supposedly innovative idea of using the tail to mask the signature of rear mounted engines:

It’s been around for a while.

Possible Coverup in Duke Cunningham Affair

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The trial of Thomas Kontogiannis, the money man/money launderer of the Duke Cunningham scandal, appears under some sort of government blackout.

The government is saying that the details of the case, which are normally public record, are government secrets, because the government says so.

So very little of the plea has been revealed.

Given the history of the state secrets privilege, it was created in the 1950s, and the US government lied to the court in the case establishing the precedent, United States v. Reynolds, I’m inclined to think that this is more Bush DoJ shenanigans.

They are probably covering up for other corrupt Republicans, Rep. Lewis comes to mind.

Me Bad. Hillary Wanking on Autism Too

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You can read it here:

I am committed to make investments to find the causes of autism, including possible environmental causes like vaccines. I have long been a supporter of increased research to determine the links between environmental factors and diseases, and I believe we should increase the NIH’s ability to engage in this type of research. My administration will be committed to improving research to support fact-based solutions, and I will ensure that the NIH has the staff and funding to fully explore all possible causes of autism.

Just to be clear: the vaccine-autism link is a hoax.

The doctor who came up with it was in cahoots with the lawyers, and he had a patent on a junk science alternative.

He is now in the process of having his license to practice medicine stripped.

Economics Update

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Today, since they’ve been off the update for a while, I’d like to welcome back a monoliner insurer, specifically AMBAC which lost even more money than forecast, $3.6 billion.

However, they are looking to turning things around. Specifically, they have their “lawyers and forensic experts”looking at 17 big money losing contracts, targeting (it appears) Bear Stearns and First Franklin. The max losses were originally seen at 10-12%, and now they are staring down the barrels of over 80%, so they may have a good case.

We’ll be seeing a lot more of this, and insurers won’t be paying out in the near term without this sort of teardown of the contract and investment looking for evidence of deception of some sort.

In related news, bondholders recovery on bankruptcy has plunged, with B+ bonds going from around 42¢ on the dollar to less than 10¢.

This is not a liquidity crisis. It is an insolvency crisis.

The Fed, however, is still treating this as a liquidity crisis, because there is no cure for an insolvency crisis but the dissolution of the entities involved, and it will auction another $75 billion in Treasuries in exchange for pieces of the big sh%$pile.

Speaking of the sh%$pile Moody’s just downgraded 1,923 residential mortgage backed securities in the past to days.

It’s likely to get worse. Robert Shiller, who is one of the creators of Case-Shiller housing index, believes that house prices will fall more than 30% from their high, and likens this to the slump associated with the Great Depression.

In terms of the more general economy, we have UPS saying that it’s seeing a dramatic slowing in the U.S. economy, and in its business, and Target’s write offs on its credit card sales are soaring. They are at an annualized rate of 8.1% for March (ouch) up from a rate of 6.8% in February (ouch x2).

In currency, we already know about the Dollar cracking the $1.60 barrier, but now we are seeing a price hike driven by this, with Airbus raising prices on its planes.

We’re going to see a lot more currency driven inflation.