Author: Matthew G. Saroff

New Build Tu-160 Blackjack Strategic Bomber Begins Flight Test

I think that this is another indication of how Russia is rearming, and I think that it is driven by a fear of NATO in general, and the US in particular.

Of course, this suits the Republicans just fine, because they want a scary opponent who justifies high tech white elephants like the F-22.

FWIW, “New Build” appears to be kind of a technicality. It appears that the aircraft was manufactured from a partially completed airframe dated from the 1990s.

Economics Update

First off, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index is falling off a cliff:

It’s the shipping rates on the 24 busiest routes. On January 10, it dropped 4.6%, and it’s dropped 28% from its November 13 peak. It’s basically an index of shipping rates of bulk items, which in turn is a pretty good indicator of where the world economy is going.

It’s going down, and it also indicates that the world economy has not “decoupled” from the US economy.

Then we have Citibank announcing a $24 billion write-down, (doubtless with more to come) , and announcing around 20,000 job cuts. What’s more, the it appears that the government of China has suggested that it will prevent a multi billion dollar investment in Citi by the state-owned China Development Bank.

This indicates that China is getting twitchy about making US investments, which does not bode well for the dollar, which is currently at $1.4877:€1.0000, within about a penny of its all time low.

And then there is the fact that banks are unable to sell Chrysler financing, amounting to about $7 billion. It had originally been $10 billion, but they could not “syndicate” (sell) that debt toward the end of last year.

Wolfgang Münchau has an interesting analysis of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets, which go much farther and deeper than subprime, and appear to be in at least as much trouble. (A primer on CDS, which are the most prevalent form of derivative, here).

Münchau makes a point, and I’m not even sure he notices, when he says, “A truly awful scenario would be a long recession. The US did experience some longish recessions in the past, for example from November 1973 until March 1975, but there was no CDS market around at the time.”

That’s the point. This brave new world of complex financial instruments has created a tsunami which is now looming over modern financial markets.

We also have Robert Shiller, co-creater of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index saying that falling house prices have gutted the value of Countrywide Financial, which Bank of America just purchased.

When he says, “I might have a lower valuation of Countrywide than Bank of America does,” he means, “Those idiots just threw money after bad.”

I said the same thing 3 days ago, but obviously, I’m an engineer, I’m not an economist, dammit*!

*I love it when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!.

Bush is Going to Keep Troops in Iraq

Yes, he says that he he is open to the possibility of slowing or stopping plans to bring home more U.S. troops from Iraq, which means that he’s not going to bring them home.

He’ll make some announcements, but when the tire hits the road, they won’t be redeployed.

Why, because George W. Bush thinks that all that matters is “victory”, which he defines as staying in Iraq, no matter how many terrorists are created, or how many troops are lost, or how many unstable nations move toward nuclear weapons.

It’s all about him, and he needs to show that he’s “brave and resolute” with other people’s lives and other people’s money.

Another Republican House Seat in Play

Rep. Jerry Weller (R-El Guatamala*) has decided not to run for re-election, and both the Republicans and Democrats are scrambling to try to get the seat.

It’s been Republican for years, but appears increasingly competitive, With the vote being 46%D 43%R, and 11%Green in the last gubernatorial election.

*His wife is the daughter of Efrain Rios Mott, wanted by the ICC for genocide against Mayan Indians in Guatamala.
He’s financially tied into Mott, and has a history of shady Central American land deals.

Justice Department Supports DC Handgun Ban

Once again, we find a case where all the NRA Republicans think that the 2nd amendment as they define it stops where they live and work. In their brief to SCOTUS, the Justice Deptartment has said that the appellate court ruling was over broad.

It’s because these guys live and work in DC, and they are worried what will happen to them if black people are allowed to carry guns.

Gun control for me, but not for thee, I guess.

Toshiba Cuts Prices on HD-DVD Players

Some HD-DVD drives are now less than $100, and the newer ones are less than $200.

I don’t think that it’s going to make a whole bunch of difference, and that, to the degree that spinning optical media will be the future of movie distribution, it looks like Sony’s Blu-Ray has won (I got that one wrong).

On the other hand, if you want a deal, and HD-DVD handles existing DVDs quite well, you might want to go shopping.

OK, Mukasey Actually Appears to Be Doing His Job

Well, knock me over with a sledge hammer, it appears that Attorney General Mukasey is actually doing his job, at least in what has become the minority voting suppression division of the Justice Department under Bush and His Evil Minions.

I’m pleasantly surprised, though Abu Gonzalez actually made me nostalgic for John Freaking Ashcroft, so it is a low bar.

First, John “Minorities will be Dead Soon” Tanner has resigned as head of the voting rights section, and is moving to the Office of Special Counsel for Immigration-Related Unfair Employment Practices in December, and last friday, his replacement, Christopher Coates, who was promoted from within the section, demoted Tanner’s former deputy chiefs, Susana Lorenzo-Giguere (who drew a salary while living at her Cape Cod vacation home) and Yvette Rivera (who has been accused of discriminating against blacks on staff).

Of note is that Rivera is being replaced by Tim Mellett, who was one of the professional staff who issued a report, subsequently overruled by the political appointees , that Tom Delay’s Texas redistricting was illegal.

Canadians Kill MP3 Player Tax

This report does not make it clear as to why the Federal Court of Appeal struck down such a tax.

There are provision in the Canadian copyright laws that allow for audio recording media, on the theory that they are means of distribution, but an MP3 player is not a means of distribution of music, but rather a means of consumption of music.

Simply put, people don’t swap MP3 players, though obviously some people swap music files.

Torture for Thee but Not For Me

This is just so Orwellian. U.S. intelligence chief Mike McConnell is saying that if waterboarding were used against him, it would be torture, but refuses to say if this applies to other people.

The level of corruption, immorality, and cowardice of Bush and His Evil Minions simply buggers the mind.

“If I had water draining into my nose, oh God, I just can’t imagine how painful!” McConnell said in the article. “Whether it’s torture by anybody else’s definition, for me it would be torture.”

But he rejected a suggestion that he personally condemned the practice.

I want my country back.

No Telco Immunity for a While

As a result of Dodd’s activism against Telco immunity, Harry Reid has decided not to attempt to pass such a provision while Bush is still in office. Instead, he’s looking at extending the last bill for another 18 months. (Note the article linked is a WSJ editorial, and so it is in many ways factually inaccurate where there are clear facts, and wrong in its analysis, read only if you have a strong stomach or an affection for dark humor)

Still, this is not good enough. The “Protect America Act” is an assault on the constitution and its principles. It should not be extended a day, much less 18 months.

Dodd is now out of the Presidential race, but in 2000, he lost to Daschle in a race for the Senate Democratic leader, and he should challenge Reid next time.

SCOTUS to Review McCain-Feingold “Millionair’s Amendment”

When McCain and Feingold were writing their campaign finance law, they had to deal with the problem of self financing candidates. If a multimillionaire wanted to run, and spend millions of his own money, the court decisions had explicitly made it clear that this was protected by the first amendment.

Their solution was to allow candidates facing a rich self-funding to accept larger donations, which the Supreme Court will now be reviewing the case, Davis v. FEC, which affirmed the law.

Musharraf Fingerprints Increasingly Appear on Bhutto Assassination

First, the Musharraf govenrment is rejecting a U.N. inquiry, on the basis that “No foreign government was involved”, though they have already fingered al Queida, a group of foreign terrorists based, at least in part in Afghanistan, and definitely supported by a foreign group, the Taliban.

Bag News Notes also has an interesting analysis, where they lay the blame at the feet of Condoleeza Rice, who thought that another “election”, like those in Iraq, would show democracy on the march in Pakistan, but then she never followed up, and left Bhutto unprotected.

Cleveland Sues Banks as “Public Nuisances”

I do not think that this lawsuit against 21 lenders will succeed, but we know what my prediction record is.

I think that the judges will throw it out of court in the early stages, but if they don’t, and it goes before a jury, I think that it will be far more likely that they will prevail.

That being said, the idea that major banks and Wall Street firms are being called public nuisances, “The Cleveland suit, filed Thursday in Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Court under the state’s public nuisance law, asserts that the financial institutions created nuisances across broad swaths of Cleveland because their loans led to widespread abandonment of homes,” does represent an interesting change in attitude.

For the past 25 years, the rule for municipalities and states was to please Wall Street, and now these institutions are being view, accurately IMNSHO, as parasites and near-criminal enterprises.