Author: Matthew G. Saroff

Sir Edmond Hillary Dead

Sir Edmond Hillary,the first man, along with his Sherpa Tenzing Norgay, the first men on the summit of Everest (they always maintained that they went to the summit together) has died. He was 88.

He was one tough (and modest) Kiwi.

Read the article…He did a lot more than just climb Everest.

I did consider posting the article without the “Sir Edmond” part in the title, just to get a reaction, but it turns out that even I have limits on how tasteless I can be.

This is Harsh

Well, it looks like the Republicans are starting to swift boat each other, as shown by this anti-Huckabee ad, put out by Victims Voice, a 527 with unknown funding.

The principal of the organization, one Keith Emis, claims that it was done by him and a friend, and that they only spent money on tape and gas, but I think that this is too well produced for that.

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Of course, the whole story shows a startling lack of unawareness. The cheerleader who was raped was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton, so there was a great hue and cry from the right wing that Wayne Dumond was railroaded because of who was governor at the time.

Mike Huckabee set him free, but he did so because a lot of people, many of them not in Arkansas pressured him, because it doesn’t matter if you are raped, if you are related to Bill Clinton.

New Ultra Capacitor Technology

I read a report about Lockheed-Martin signing a contract with a company called EEstore to get exclusive rights to their ultra-capacitor technology in defense and homeland security applications.

I’ve done a bit of looking around, there is a Wiki Page, and if it does 1/10 of what they say it does, it’s impressive tech.

The advantages of Capacitors over batteries are:

  • Fast Charging
  • Fast Discharging
  • Basically never wear out.

The disadvantages are:

  • They can lose their stored energy over time, though this can be a long time, as anyone who has been knocked on their ass after opening up a junkyard TV can attest. (This tech is supposed to have self-discharge rate of 0.1% per month)
  • Low power density.

This technology looks very impressive:

These units use barium titanate coated with aluminum oxide and glass to achieve a level of capacitance claimed to be much higher than what is currently available in the market. The claimed energy density is 1.0 MJ/kg (existing commercial supercapacitors typically have an energy density of the order of 0.01 MJ/kg and a lithium ion battery has an energy density of 0.54–0.72 MJ/kg).

Maxwell technology has ultracapacitors on the market, and their website has peformance of 3.29 Wh/kg, or about .01MJ/KG.

CBS News and Writers End Labor Dispute

Best of luck to the members of WGAon their new contract. It had been two½ years since the last contract expired.

My guess is that when the threatened picket line shut down the CBS debate, management started negotiating in good faith.

I, for one, would like to thank the WGA for stopping a debate moderated by Katie Couric, arguably the most useless big media name ever.

Murrow is spinning in his grave.

Interesting Theory on NH: Obama Lost Because of Angry With Bush Vote

Interesting analysis from Open Left, Chris Bowers notes that Obama led 38%-39% among those dissatisfied with Bush, but among the 2/3 of the voters angry with Bush, Clinton won 39%-34%.

Obama is in a bind with this. His campaign is deliberately a non-angry one, and he really can’t switch gears, because if he does, he becomes the “angry black man”, and that is not an electable place to be in the USA.

Morons Unclear on Trademark

The teenage entrepreneur screwing this up I can understand, but the reporter completely screwed the pooch on this one.

A kid makes jewelry called “change rocks”, and Obama has a concert series called “change rocks”.

The kid has no right to do anything with regard to trademark. Quoting the Wiki, “Trademark law is designed to fulfill the public policy objective of consumer protection, by preventing the public from being misled as to the origin or quality of a product or service.”

So if there is no potential consumer confusion, there is no harm, no foul.

Obama can’t sell jewelry, but he could do T-shirts, bumper stickers, etc. My guess is that his concern is about his Google ranking, or an attempt at free publicity.

Don’t care, and neither should Obama. Tough luck, kid.

Economics Update

More blood for Citicorp and Merril, it looks like they will be needing additional foreign money, as they are expected to report additional losses amounting to $25 billion. In addition, Capital One is expected to report about a billion dollars more in losses than was previously expected (what’s in your wallet).

And Moody’s is thinking about cutting Freddie Mac’s rating to A-, which could make raising capital much more difficult.

December retail sales figures sucked wet farts from dead pigeons. It was an increase, but less than inflation, which makes a decrease in real $.

Ben Bernanke has pretty much guaranteed a rate cut in a speech he gave today to the Women in Housing and Finance and Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

Bush’s North Korea Counterfeit Accusations Completely Bogus

In May of last year, I made a couple of posts about how the accusations of the DPRK counterfeiting US dollars was bogus (here and here).

Now a McClatchy news investigation has found no evidence that to support these allegations (Bush lying, what a surprise).

If you look at my old articles, I finger the US intelligence services as being the most likely people to do this. They have the means, and opportunity, and as to motive, it allows them to hand out a suitcase full of cash without it appearing on budget.

Klaus Bender, the author of a book on the subject, “Moneymakers: The Secret World of Banknote Printing,” said that the phony $100 bill is “not a fake anymore. It’s an illegal parallel print of a genuine note.”

“It goes way beyond what normal counterfeiters are able to do,” said Bender, whose book first spotlighted the improbability of North Korean supernotes. “And it is so elaborate (and expensive) it doesn’t pay for the counterfeiting anymore.”

Bender claims that the supernotes are of such high quality and are updated so frequently that they could be produced only by a U.S. government agency such as the CIA.

As unsubstantiated as the allegation is, there is a precedent. In his new book on the history of the CIA, journalist Tim Weiner detailed how the agency tried to undermine the Soviet Union’s economy by counterfeiting its currency.

Political Updates for the Day

John Kerry has endorsed Barack Obama. I’m not sure how much of this is that he likes Obama, and how much is the feeling that he might have that the Clintonistas submarined him in 2004 to clear the way for Hillary.

TheHill.com – Clinton outraised Obama in the fourth quarter, $24 million to $23.5 million. No breakdown of contributions between primary and general though.

We are starting to see stories about Obama’s ties to Antoin “Tony” Rezko and his house purchase. I don’t see much being there in terms of corruption (stupidity is another matter), but if he gets the nomination, this will be a regular Republican talking point.

Richardson drops out of the race no word yet on who he will endorse, but my guess would be Clinton.

Landrieu’s corruption story seems to have had a bit of wind taken out of its sales. It appears that the earmark in question was because, “Paul Vance, the superintendent of the D.C. public schools, had written Landrieu, then the ranking member on the D.C appropriations subcommittee, and Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH), then the chair, to ask for funds for Voyager.” It’s not the end of the investigation, but it makes it look like any developments are not imminent.

Looks like Unity ’08 will be shut down to make way for a Bloomberg campaign site. Well, f&^% you your honor.

Holy Crap!!! I Got a Prediction Right!!!!

On 17 November, I wrote about Bank of America buying $$2 billion worth of preferred Countrywide stock yielding 7.3%, and that can be converted into common stock at $18 per share (a 21% discount of the then price). It was supposed to be master stroke of vulture capitalism, giving away the gold the golden goose for some magic beans.

At the time, I said, “Honestly, I think that they will end up losing money on this.

It appears that I was right (happy dance), and we are now seeing the articles wondering how Can Bank of America Can Salvage Its Countrywide Stake. They didn’t buy the golden goose, they bought the intestinal gas from the beans (It’s trading for $8.72), and now everyone is wondering how BoA will minimize its hurt.


These guys are paid millions of dollars to get stuff like this right, and they didn’t, and I did.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure this stuff out.

Matthew Saroff’s Hall of Failed Predictions: Exhibit 38,745

I was certain that, if there were a winner in the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray wars, it would be HD-DVD. ( here, here, here, here, here, and here)

It’s a cheaper tech, and it’s not controlled by Sony.

Well, the New York Times is now reporting that
NBC Universal and Paramount are seriously considering a switch to Blu-Ray.

I’m not wrong yet, but it seems likely that I will be in the next 12-18 months.

Then again, the end of the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray wars has always seemed to be 12-18 months away.