Good for them. CBS News writers are on strike, and they won’t cross the picket line for the December debate on CBS.
It’s the right thing to do.
Author: Matthew G. Saroff
RGE – With the Recession Becoming Inevitable the Consensus Shifts Towards the Hard Landing View. And the Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown
Noriel Roubini’s latest prediction:
I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before. In this extreme scenario whose likelihood is increasing we could see a generalized run on some banks; and runs on a couple of weaker (non-bank) broker dealers that may go bankrupt with severe and systemic ripple effects on a mass of highly leveraged derivative instruments that will lead to a seizure of the derivatives markets (think of LTCM to the power of three); a collapse of the ABCP market and a disorderly collapse of the SIVs and conduits; massive losses on money market funds with a run on both those sponsored by banks and those not sponsored by banks (with the latter at even more severe risk as the recent effective bailout of the formers’ losses by theirs sponsoring banks is not available to those not being backed by banks); ever growing defaults and losses ($500 billion plus) in subprime, near prime and prime mortgages with severe known-on effect on the RMBS and CDOs market; massive losses in consumer credit (auto loans, credit cards); severe problems and losses in commercial real estate and related CMBS; the drying up of liquidity and credit in a variety of asset backed securities putting the entire model of securitization at risk; runs on hedge funds and other financial institutions that do not have access to the Fed’s lender of last resort support; a sharp increase in corporate defaults and credit spreads; and a massive process of re-intermediation into the banking system of activities that were until now altogether securitized.
Let’s be clear, Dr. Roubini is, and always has been, a bear. Truth be told, Since I started following this in 2001, so have I.
More important that this is that the bears in general, and Dr. Roubini in particular, have been right time and time again.
We have trillions of dollars in leverage in instruments that no one understands, and when this unwinds, it will be ugly.
1000 Words, Economy Edition
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Huckabee Ties Romney in Iowa
It’s a statistical tie, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll, errore of 5% +/-.
Mitt Romney, 28 percent
Mike Huckabee, 24 percent
Fred Thompson, 15 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 13 percent
John McCain, 6 percent
Oil Above $99/bbl Euro Above Euro at $1.4831:€1.0000
Crude oil peaked at $99.29/bbl, and the Euro is at $1.4831:€1.0000.
Absent a major weather event, I don’t see much movement over the Thanksgiving weekend, but they are both close to crossing their respective psychological barriers.
This is What Happened When Rumsfeld Wanted to Run the War on the Cheap
Maimed vets, people who will be crippled for life, are getting demand letters for their signing bonuses, because they were unable to complete their tours because of their injuries.
Evil….
Desmond Tutu Gets it on Homophobic Bigotry
He said it should rather be focusing on global problems such as Aids.
“Our world is facing problems – poverty, HIV and Aids – a devastating pandemic, and conflict,” said Archbishop Tutu, 76.
“God must be weeping looking at some of the atrocities that we commit against one another.
“In the face of all of that, our Church, especially the Anglican Church, at this time is almost obsessed with questions of human sexuality.”
To Funny for Words…Subprime Edition
Congress Reviewing Bill to Allow Bankruptcy Judges Review Terms of Mortgage Loans
Brad Miller (D-NC) and Linda Sanchez (D-Ca) have proposed legislation in the house, and there appears to be a push for this in the Senate.
It is anticipated that this could reduce foreclosures by 2 million.
One of the wierd things that I discovered in reading this is that, Judges already have this power for “Vacation homes, farms and investment properties.”
But not for principal homes…Weird.
If this passes, it may save the mortgage industry from itself.
One Good Thing From the Credit Mess
Private equity firms are being pressed to give out more information about how they operate.
If this gets written into statute or regulation, it would be a good thing.
Romney Push Polled…Himself???
There has been a bit of nastiness going on in the Republican Presidential Primaries in Iowa. Someone has been push polling* in Iowa and New Hampshire:
Among the questions asked during the 20-minute calls placed last week were whether the person polled knew Romney received Vietnam-era military deferments while serving in the Mormon missionary in France, that none of his sons served in the military and that the Mormon religion didn’t accept blacks as bishops until the 1970s.
Needless to say, push polling is sleazy, and when one adds the despicable pandering to religious bigotry, it gets worse.
Here, however, is where it gets weird, the calls are believed to have been made by Western Wats, a Utah-based firm closely tied to the BYU, the preeminent Mormon University in the world, and it’s hard to believe that they would do this, and threaten many existing business contacts.
The National Review‡ looks into all of this, and mentions their pet theory that Romney did it so that he could play the victim.
I don’t think so. The downside of getting caught is just too much.
However, the number two theory makes sense:
According to another source at a rival campaign who wished to remain anonymous, there’s speculation that Romney may have push polled himself because his campaign wanted polling data regarding the negative perception of his Mormon faith for internal use. But since they couldn’t do so without causing controversy, they took steps to make it look like McCain.
*A push poll is a phony poll, in which the goal is not to get information, but to place a bit of slander in the voter’s head, so they might ask something like, “Did you know that Matthew Saroff has a guilty plea for disturbing the Peace?”†
†Actually, I do, it was pled down from the traffic infraction of an “improperly fastened load” so that it would not bump my insurance rates.
‡They are professional liars. You need to confirm every period and comma.
Cox Also Shutting Down P2P Traffic
They are using the same method as Comcast, though they are more honest about it, as evidenced by this response from the company:
To ensure the best possible online experience for our customers, Cox actively manages network traffic through a variety of methods including traffic prioritization and protocol filtering. Cox does not prohibit the use of file-sharing services for uploads or downloads, or discriminate against any specific services in any way. To help our customers make the most out of their Internet experience, we take proactive measures to ensure that bandwidth intensive applications do not negatively impact their service. These network management practices are outlined in our subscriber agreement and Acceptable Use Policy.
Certainly, I can see how, during periods of high bandwidth, one might want to drop priority on bit-torrent or similar applications (full disclosure, I use bit-torrent), but this is basically blocking:
According to Topolski, Cox is in fact using traffic shaping to degrade p2p traffic. In analyzing a user log, he has concluded that Cox is using traffic shaping hardware to send forged TCP/IP packets with the RST (reset) flag set — with the goal of disrupting eDonkey traffic. He’s been unable to tell precisely what hardware Cox is using, but he notes that the technique being used is very similar to Comcast’s treatment of BitTorrent.
It raises two questions: what is it about cable companies that make them so inclined to bull this bull$#@!, and why are they going through a backdoor block, as opposed to simply lowering the priority of the packets on their own internal network.
Iraqi Army Detains Mercenaries Private Security Contractors
The New York Times is reporting that 43 Contractors have been taken into custody. It appears that the contract that they had was for resupply, and that these guards covered the resupply contract, and were not a part of any American security contract.
At this point, none of the detained are believed to be American.
I think that this is a shot across the bow of all the contractors by the Iraqi army.
People to Put Up Against the Wall When the Revolution Comes
This would be the Wall Street pukes who have engineered the housing bubble, and are now NOT reaping the consequences of its deflation.
Wall Street firms are planning record bonuses of $34 Billion this year.
That money, split among about 186,000 workers at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos., equates to an average of $201,500 per person, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The five biggest U.S. securities firms paid $36 billion to employees last year.
What happened to pay for performance?
Tom Udall Dominates the New Mexico Senate Race (Corrected)
FWIW, Chavez loses to both Wilson and Pearce in the polls.
It’s not done yet, the election is a year out, but perhaps it’s time for Mr. Chavez to stop pretending that he is a Democrat, and get out of the race.
Originally, I listed this as Arizona, probably based on my recollections of Tom Udall’s dad, Stuart Udall.
I am such a complete pratt sometimes.
US Spending on Afthan Aid Inadequate and Incompetent
Oxfam complaining about this. It appears that in addition to not spending enough money, $4.4 billion in Afghanistan since 2002, as versus $35 billion in 2007 alone for military efforts, too much is spent on, “profits of companies and subcontractors, on non-Afghan resources and on high expatriate salaries and living costs,” (up to ½ million/year for each contractor).
Additionally, “Some two-thirds of U.S. foreign assistance bypasses the Afghan government that officials say they want to strengthen”.
It’s almost as if there were a conscious decision among Bush and His Evil Minions™ to treat this as an opportunity for political payback to incompetent contractors who are political allies.
Federal Grand Gury Investigates Involvement in Iraqi Deaths
Finally, but given the degree to which the State Department has sabotaged this investigation from the beginning, I do not expect any indictments to come of it.
Update: We now have reports that the Gand Jury is investigating other Mercenaries Security Contractors in addition to Blackwater:
The Washington grand jury has issued subpoenas to several private security firms, including Blackwater, a legal source briefed on the probe said yesterday. Authorities are seeking company “after-action” reports and other documents that may shed light on specific incidents, he said.
The source, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the probe, declined to say which incidents have been targeted, but he said the investigation ranges well beyond Blackwater. Private security companies in Iraq “have been shooting a lot of people,” he said.
Emphasis mine.
I think that if there is ever a fair accounting of the actions of the mercs in Iraq, a lot of people are going to be called to account.
Almost 1/5 of Home Sales in Orange County are Distressed
A distressed property is either foreclosed or short sold (sold for less than it is worth). In Orange County, almost 20% of home sales are of distressed homes.
At some point, buyers are going to start expecting distressed asset prices, and then the home market plummet even more.
US Charging Bilal Hussein in Iraqi Court with Secret Evidence
They have held the award winning photographer for more than 19 months, and now they are finally charging him in a process that his employer, the AP calls a sham. The AP claims, and I’m inclined to agree that these charges are because he got pictures that the military did not want:
Tomlin said the AP has faced chronic difficulties in meeting Hussein at the Camp Cropper detention facility in Baghdad and its own intensive investigations of the case—conducted by a former federal prosecutor, Paul Gardephe—have found no support for allegations that he was anything other than a working journalist in a war zone.
This is just disgraceful.
Oil Spikes, Dollar Falls
Oil is above $95/bbl, and there talk of switching denomination to the Euro, which peaked today at $1.4804:€1.000, though it’s currently at 1.4785.
I think that we will be seeing stagflation sooner rather than later.