It’s snowing again, and Baltimore County has closed schools tomorrow.
Even my daughter is sick to death of schools being closed.
Author: Matthew G. Saroff
Update on the Bayh Announcement
I don’t like the idea of a yet another Blue Dog becoming the Senator from Indiana, but Tamyra D’Ippolito is a political horror show.
She’s not just a political neophyte, she is also a 20 year veteran of Wall Street, including time at Lehman brothers.
So, what she appears to be is someone who spent 20 years on Wall Street, some of it at one of the more infamous players in finance, and then retired and decided to play dilettante.
It’s a toxic combination of ties to the financial crisis and political inexperience.
I’ll stick with what I said earlier, I’m pulling for Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, though I am going to hate spelling his name.
Bowing Out Like a Punk
Yeah, like this will go over with Indiana voters
Evan Bayh will not stand for reelection.*
Yes, unlike Chris Dodd, who announced well in advance, and was frank about the reason, that he thought that he would lose, Evan Bayh’s announcement comes as a complete surprise to to everyone, with 1 day left to the primary filing deadline, and the only person close to having the signatures necessary being a protest candate, Tamyra d’Ippolito, a café owner in Bloomington.
If she gets the necessary signatures, 500 signatures in each Congressional district, it means that if any Democrat wants to run against her, they will have to do so as a write in candidate in the May primary.
If she gets the signatures, expect the Dem establishment to challenge every signature.
If she doesn’t get the signatures, then the Indiana Democrat Party appoints a nominee, with the likely suspects being, “Dem Reps Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, and Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel.”
I’m hoping for the mayor, because I don’t care about the municipal government of Evansville, but I do care about the composition of the United States House of Representatives, and both Ellsworth and Hill are Blue Dogs.
Mother Jones nailed it when they said, “Evan Bayh quits in a huff“, because the manner of his withdrawal makes it clear that he is doing this in a way most calculated to cause damage to the Democratic Party, either by leaving them without a viable candidate for the Senate, or by pulling in a candidate from one of the Democratic Congressmen, which leaves that seat open.
On the other hand, most of the potential big name Republican candidates have already elected not to run, which leaves former Senator Dan Coats, who, as Charles Lemos shows, moved out of the state, and has to rent a house to run. (See video)
Still I do not think that this is an attempt to jam up the Republicans, he did it out of pique.
Why else would he have waited until after the news was public to tell Harry Reid?
I agree with Mark Ambinder who nails it in a tweet, either 100 characters, or 81 if you don’t count spaces:
Why Bayh? He wanted to be POTUS and came to hate the Senate and liberal activists. He wanted no mas.
He not only voted for the Iraq invasion, he was a f%$#ing cosponsor for the bill, which means that he will never be president, and now he is pouting.
Joe Lieberman writ small.
*Like Evan Bayh ever stood for anything, except perhaps for the ambition of Evan Bayh.
I Don’t Think that the Chinese Gentleman is Joking
Steve Clemons notes the following discussion that he had with a Chinese official some years back:
Several years ago, I met with the Deputy Director of the Policy Planning staff of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and I asked him what he was working on — and what China’s grand strategy was.
His reply: “We are trying to figure out how to keep you Americans distracted in small Middle Eastern countries.”
It’s pretty memorable when one can joke and be truthful at the same time.………
Yes, it’s funny, but I’m not sure if it’s funny “ha ha”, or funny “strange”.
What Real Banking Regulations Look Like
In the UK, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) has told banks that if their bonuses do not comply with regulations, the face the forfeiture of their banking licenses:
In an extraordinary ultimatum that has shocked some of the City’s biggest companies, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) told bank bosses that 60pc of all pay must be deferred, with no exceptions, even for those whose contracts conflicting with the edict.
Many of the global players have in recent weeks made representations to the City watchdog, in particular about pre-existing employment contracts that guarantee bonuses over a year or more. But their appeals have been met with the FSA’s toughest yet response.
One pay executive in a major bank told The Daily Telegraph: “The message came back that while the FSA agreed that it does not have jurisdiction over contractual law, it does have jurisdiction over issuing bank licences in London, and that we should go away and unwind the contracts.“
Bankers at Merrill Lynch are among the first affected. Those with pre-existing contracts were told about the FSA’s tough stance on Friday when their bonuses were agreed.
(emphasis mine)
This is very canny on the part of the FSA. They aren’t instructing banks to break contracts, which might create all sorts of problems with EU or WTO “free trade courts”, they are saying, “This is the rule, if you don’t comply, bye bye licens(c)e.”
If an employee refuses to modify their contract, it’s pretty clear that they are deliberately engaging in an activity which would cause the loss of their firm’s banking license, which in a sane universe is grounds for dismissal.
I wish that I lived in a country with meaningful banking regulations.
Scary Mortgage Developments
The first bit of news is that the mortgage delinquency rate in the United States has passed 10%.
That’s a pretty scary number if you are a mortgage lender.
The second bit of scary news, and it contributes to the first, is that borrowers are increasingly paying off credit cards before their mortgages, with, “percentage of borrowers who are delinquent on their mortgages but paying their credit card bills on time is growing, to 6.6 percent in the third quarter of 2009 from 4.9 percent in the same quarter of 2008.”
Part of this may be the bankruptcy changes of a few years back, which make it much more difficult to discharge credit card debt, but a lot of it is also the fact that the mindset has changed, and people are looking at their houses as bad investments, and so are in a “walk away” mindset.
The banks and mortgage brokers rode the bubble by selling homes as investment vehicles, as opposed to shelter, and now, they are dealing with borrowers who increasingly look to their homes in the same way, and are considering “jingle mail” as a way to deal with something that they see as a failed investment.
Goldman Sach Losing Profits from Trnasparency
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The big banks profit on this lack of transparency
As a result of moves by regulators to move Credit Default Swaps, it looks like the big banks are looking at a revenue stream drying up:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will find it tough to reproduce last year’s record trading revenue as the difference between bid and offer prices in credit markets narrows to the tightest in almost 18 months.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the gap between prices at which traders offer to buy and sell credit-default swaps on North American companies has shrunk to 6.1 basis points, from as high as 20.4 in October 2008 and 16.3 in March. Historically wide spreads on everything from derivatives to bonds, representing fees earned per trade, helped fuel the recovery in bank earnings.
Basically, this gap is the difference in buying and selling prices, and it is the investment banks that profit from large spreads.
It’s why they have been campaigning to keep financial instruments off of public markets. When buy and sell prices are public knowledge, the spreads between them shrink, and so do the banks profit margins.
That’s why they want carve-outs from requirements for public trades: It robs them of the ability to overcharge for their services.
Net Materials Create Really Ugly Spacecraft
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This doesn’t fly, it is just so ugly that it repels the earth
In a move away from about 50 years convention in materials and aerodynamics, European aerospace firms are looking at faceted sharp edged reentry vehuicles: (paid subscription required)
Advanced thermal protection systems, to be tested in upcoming hypersonic experiments, will enable development of a reusable “sharp-edged” orbital launch vehicle with much greater flexibility than blunt-capsule or shuttle-type designs, say German researchers.
The team at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Bremen believes the move to simple, faceted geometries—away from the curved surfaces of conventional reentry vehicles— should also help cut costs while simultaneously offering improvements in aero-thermodynamic performance.
Basically, they are suggesting that the use of flat surfaces will make for more easily constructed heterogeneous materials, kind of like how Chobham armor give tanks angled surfaces, and that this can allow for sharp edged re-entry vehicles that can give more cross range performance and far lower G loads during reentry.
This is not an easy nut to crack. Not only are the temperatures higher with a weak shock wave, on the order of nearly 5,000°F as versus about 2300°F for the shuttle, but the high speed portion of reentry would take something on the order of an hour, as opposed to 10 minutes.
The technologies involved are ceramic matrix composites, basically composites where ceramics replace the conventional resin, advance ablative systems, and effusion cooling, which is basically where very small holes in the surface are used to pass a cooling fluid that carries away heat directly, as well as creating a thin film of relatively cool gas on the surface in question.
Effusion cooling has already been applied to cool combustors, but might prove more problematic in the rather less well controlled environments during reentry.
In French, found on a Russian BBS
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In French, and posted on a Russian BBS
I would not call this definitive
Eric Palmer found the following 3-view of the Pak-FA with descriptions, in French, on a Russian message board.
Well, it shows a number of features, though the provenance is totally unclear.
Items of interest are the IRST in front of the nose(2), wing mounted radar arrays (10), in flight refueling provisions (8), external stores provisions (16), a missile warning system (4), and (most notably) a vertically inclined “S” duct for the engines.
It does appear to match the general configuration of what was seen in the flight video though.
I hadn’t thought about a vertical offset in the inlets to hide the engine face, but from this 3-view, it does appear to be there, so the engine does appear to be shielded, at least partially, though I would still bet on a radar blocking grid.
Cracked.com Gets Serious
They just listed the, “The 6 Most Statistically Full of Sh%$ Professions, (%$ mine) and they are:
- Stock Market Experts
- Wine Tasters
- Art Critics
- Criminal Profilers
- Weather Forecasters
- Sportswriting
Note that this is not just a slam at these professions. It is a statistical analysis about how they perform relative to random chance.
Stock market experts underperform the market, wine tasters cannot tell the difference between “Grand Cru” and “vin de table”, art critics cannot identify clear forgeries, criminal profilers don’t beat control groups, weather forecasters don’t beat chance, and sportswriters bat about .476 at predicting games.
Just to let you know what it means when you allow non-peer reviewed professions to declare themselves “experts.”
Even Dick Cheney Supports Ending Don’t Ask Don’t Tell
Another sign of the apocalypse:
KARL: OK, “don’t ask/don’t tell” — you’re a former defense secretary — should this policy be repealed?
CHENEY: Twenty years ago, the military were strong advocates of “don’t ask/don’t tell,” when I was secretary of defense. I think things have changed significantly since then. I see that Don Mullen — or Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has indicated his belief that we ought to support a change in the policy. So I think — my guess is the policy will be changed.
KARL: And do you think that’s a good thing? I mean, is it time to allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military?
CHENEY: I think the society has moved on. I think it’s partly a generational question. I say, I’m reluctant to second-guess the military in this regard, because they’re the ones that have got to make the judgment about how these policies affect the military capability of our — of our units, and that first requirement that you have to look at all the time is whether or not they’re still capable of achieving their mission, and does the policy change, i.e., putting gays in the force, affect their ability to perform their mission?
The Robin Hood Tax Gains Support in the UK
I Would Like to See This on US Television
It’s actually called a “Tobin Tax“, and the idea is that a tax of about 5 basis points (0.05%) on non-consumer bank transactions (otherwise known as “speculation”).
As was noted with the original Tobin proposal, this is actually very hard to evade, because they sales have to be settled something, and for any transaction of any significant size, this means only a few places, New York, London, Paris, Frankfurt, Tokyo, etc. settle (i.e.) pay.
If you moved from highly trafficked settling institutions to obscure ones, the costs of settling become much higher, and in fact will likely likely be much higher than 5 basis points.
There is an organization in the UK, the Robin Hood Tax campaign, which is lobbying for the idea, and produced the above video, which illustrates how it would work, and how it would benefit everyone except for the vampire squids* of the world.
In an interesting twist to all of this, the folks at the campaign put up an online poll, and some online entities spammed the poll to oppose the proposal.
I wonder who might have done this?
The Robin Hood Tax campaign alleged that a Goldman computer was one of two computers that allegedly “spammed” the internet poll with more than 4,600 “no” votes in less than 20 minutes on Thursday.
Technical staff for the Robinhoodtax.org.uk website said the “no” counter increased at a “dramatic rate” from 3.41pm.
The number of “no” votes jumped from 1,400 to 6,000 before campaigners – who are calling for the introduction of 0.05pc tax on banking transactions – tightened the site’s security.
Robin Hood’s security team claimed it traced the erroneous votes to two computers, one of which is allegedly registered as belonging to Goldman.
Goldman is saying that it has, “just received this information and is investigating fully,” which in the UK means busting which ever staff member is of Indian or Pakistani extraction, I guess.
In any case, the “Yes” vote is winning by about 9:1, 41488 to 4626.
I approve of their program, though I think that 5 basis points is too low. It should be at least 25 basis points (¼%).
*Goldman Sachs and their Evil Minions™
Snowpocalypse: Aftermath
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About 6 feet
Well, I ain’t cleaning the sidewalks for a while.
Thy finally cleared the street on Friday, and they were very thorough.
All the snow, except immediately around some parked cars, was put on the curb by front loaders, and our little road is completely clear.
The resulting berms of snow are vary between 4 and 6 feet.
Well, Here is an Interesting Local Startup
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Basic VTOL Configuration
Wind Tunnel Testing
Control Surface Tests
Mission scenario video
Images and video, American Dynamics Flight Systems*
Aviation Week has noted that a startup company with a interesting take on a VTOL UAV has received funding from the Maryland Industrial Partnerships (MIPS) program for wind tunnel tests on their AD-150 UAS.
The company, American Dynamics Flight Systems, has an interesting take on the tilt rotor system, and I don’t mean just their use of shrouded propulsors, but the fact that they can operate the propulsors asymmetrically in order to provide control inputs.
The final product is looking to be a 14½ foot long vehicle that can carry a roughly 500 pound payload at 300 kts, which places it within the requirements for the US Marine Corps “Group 4” drone requirement.
Given the specifications, it certainly will be able to keep up with the Osprey, though I have not seen any range data.
The company’s other products are the High Torque Aerial Lift (HTAL) propulsor, which is used on the AD-150, and an improved launcher for the 2.75″ FFAR called the, “LH Series Launcher,” which is lighter and more streamlined than the existing launchers, and so more suited to UAVs.
There seems to be a fair amount of “neat” tech there, the AD-150 appears to be leveraging on their HTAL propulsor, and their LH launcher appears to fill a real need.
Basically, with the advent of guidance heads for the 2.75″ rocket, APKWS and DAGRS, it is rather likely that this will become the weapon of choice for UAVS,
The rocket, which is smaller, lighter, and has a smaller warhead than the AGM-114 Hellfire, which means that more can be carried with less collateral damage.
Using the hellfire to take out a guy on a motorbike, or a bunch of guys in an SUV, is kind of like using an elephant gun as a fly-swatter.
In any case, I emailed them about getting a tour of their Jessup, Maryland facility, and will be having a tour on Wednesday, assuming that their schedule or the vicissitudes of mother nature (more snow predicted next week) don’t intrude.
I will be posting a request for any ideas for questions on a shorter post, which will remain at the top of the list until late Tuesday evening, so I’ve closed comments on this post, if there is anything you want to know, post it there. (Link to request for questions)
I recommend checking out the web site. It’s chock full of neat stuff.™
*Their use statement on their website says, “Unless otherwise noted, the content in this collection is provided for non-commercial use and may be used for educational and editorial purposes only. All other uses require the explicit written consent of American Dynamics Flight Systems. For more information please contact media@adflightsystems.com.” My writing about them should qualify as an “editorial” purpose.
Friday Mouse Blogging
And the award for best advert using the Carpenters, the Doors, and Survivor goes to:
Deep Thought
H/t Group News Blog
Oh, This is Rich
Bummer of a birth mark, Harold
You know that Harold Ford, chairman of the corporatist squish faux Democratic DLC and failed US Senate candidate in Tennessee is considering a Senate run in New York State.
Well, now it turns out that he’s never filed a New York state tax return, despite the fact that he has been employed at Merrill Lynch since 2007:
Ford claims to have moved to New York three years ago, and says paying “New York taxes” makes him a New Yorker. But his spokeswoman confirms to Gawker that he’s never filed a New York tax return — meaning that he’s never paid New York’s income tax, despite keeping an office and a residence in New York City as a vice chairman of Merrill Lynch since 2007: “He pays New York taxes and will file a New York tax return in April for the first time,” Ford’s spokeswoman Tammy Sun told Gawker. “He will file all necessary personal disclosure and tax forms that candidates are required to file if he chooses to run.” (According to Sun, Ford admitted to the tax dodge yesterday at a press availability in Albany, but we can’t find any news accounts mentioning the remarks.)
Now it appears that there has been some damage control from his PR folks, who are now saying that he will be filing a return for the first time in April, which means that he’s been breaking New York state law, which requires that out of state residents pay taxes on income earned in New York, and so file.
Someone has broken the law, and put his foot in it again.
Note: Tennessee, of course, has no personal income tax.
[on edit] Not completely true: There are no income taxes in Tennessee on wages and salaries, other forms of income, interest and dividends for example, are taxable.
Obama Fail
OK, so Obama made some noises about recess appointments, and the Republicans let 27 nominees get an up or down vote, the ones that do not matter.
Well, that’s good.
What is not good is that Obama followed up with signals that there is no need for recess appointments (BTW, Clinton made about 150, and GWB made about 200).
No, when you have them down, you put your foot on their neck.
If they block your Transportation Security Administration (TSA) nominee, as they did. because they don’t like Barack Obama’s position on union rights for the employees, you don’t back down, you appoint Teamsters President James Hoffa as your TSA chief. Hell, if they were still alive, you appoint his dad, Jimmy Hoffa, or maybe Walter Ruther or Eugene V. Debs during the recess.
Unfortunately, as Ezra Klein notes, in getting this small concession, Obama stated that recess appointments are a, “rare but not unprecedented step,” which makes any attempt to do recess appointments in the future an invitation to your standard Republican sh%$ storm of phony outrage, and as Matthew Yglesias notes, the Obama administration really does not have time for this crap.
Stupid, really stupid.
It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!
There were no bank failures this week, but since I’ve put in the pretty picture with the trend line, I figure that it needs to be shown with the delta, about -22 bank failures at year’s end.
My guess at this point is that we will see somewhere between 125 and 225 bank failures this week.
Landrieu Bugging Update
It appears that the lawyer for Robert Flanagan is involved in negotiations with prosecutors.
Flanagan is the one who is the US Attorney for Baton Rouge’s son, and my guess is that he’s the one most likely to sing, because he’ll get the best deal because of who daddy is.
Pass the popcorn.