Author: Matthew G. Saroff

What 10 Years of Conservatives Getting What They Wanted Got Us

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Note that private employment rolls actually fell


And in handy bar graph form

The Washington Post correctly called the “Aughts” a lost decade, inflation adjusted median income fell (for the first time on record), non-farm payroll experienced no growth (for the first time on record), household wealth fell (for the first time on record), GDP rose by the lowest number since at least the Great Depression.

The same goes for the stock market, only in this case, the records go back 200 years.

We have had a grand experiment of embracing conservative philosophy, with a highly right wing executive and a compliant legislative branch, since 2001 and the result has been miserable failure.

The past decade may not be as bad as the Great Depression, but it beats anything else in the 20th or 21st century, and it is not over yet.

My Life Is Less Exciting Than This Sounds

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Yesterday, I went to an event for a medieval reenactment group, the Society for Creative Anachronism, and I left without my pants.

The full story is that I went there in street clothes, and changed into period garb there, and somehow or other, the jeans that I wore to the event did not make themselves back into my bag.

I had to pick them up today.

Pretty dull, but that first sentence is intriguing.

The Right to Blaspheme is the Core of Civil Rights in a Modern Democracy

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So, we now have the breaking news that a a man armed with knives and axes attempted to break into the home of Kurt Westergaard, one of the artists who created the Danish cartoons (see pic).

The response to such terrorism must be more speech that religious fundamentalists find blasphemous, hence my reposting the picture. If you allow the clergy to determine what can, or cannot, be said, you eventually create a theocracy, and history has shown that theocracies are amongst the worst forms of despotism.

Additionally, as I have said before, “If your God can’t take me calling him a pig felcher, then he ain’t much of a God.”

While I understand how backward 3rd nations, like, for example, Ireland might want to outlaw blasphemy, I think that modern nations must necessarily understand that as a condition for full access to the benefits of western economies and markets.

The free traders believe that open markets create open societies, but given the explosion of blasphemy laws, and blasphemy prosecutions, since the adoption of the GATT (Now WTO), I would argue that the opposite has occurred.

The reduction to costs involved in acceding to the demands of medieval fundamentalists, because the current model of “free trade” means that a country has full access to international markets unless their policies are nearly genocidal, has led mainstream politicians who are looking for allies and coalition partners, to sign off on demands that are contrary to modern civil rights.

FWIW, I believe that the same sanctions should be applied to laws that criminalize criticism of royalty (Thailand) or the nation (Turkey, etc.).

Really Bad Idea

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It seems that the Chinese are looking at using nuclear powered cargo ships to ship cheap crap to the USA.

Bad idea, and a lose, as is obvious from looking at the history of nuclear powered civilian cargo vessels, or just the numbers for the NS Savannah:

However, Savannah’s cargo space was limited to 8,500 tons of freight in 652,000 cubic feet (18,000 m³). Many of her competitors could accommodate several times as much. Her streamlined hull made loading the forward holds laborious, which became a significant disadvantage as ports became more and more automated. Her crew was a third larger than comparable oil-fired ships and received special training after completing all training requirements for conventional maritime licenses. Her operating budget included the maintenance of a separate shore organization for negotiating her port visits and a personalized shipyard facility for completing any needed repairs.

And then there is that whole Somali Pirate thing, which makes the idea of an unarmed civilian ship operating a nuclear reactor on the high seas even less attractive.

I can see al Qaeda salivating over the prospect of seizing a ship like this.

H/t Information Dissemination

Again, No Surprise

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The single most important criteria determining whether or not a bank was bailed out by was the personal and political closeness to the Fed or to the Congress of its senior management:

A new study by Ross professors Ran Duchin and Denis Sosyura found that banks with connections to members of congressional finance committees and banks whose executives served on Federal Reserve boards were more likely to receive funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the federal government’s program to purchase assets and equity from financial institutions to strengthen its financial sector.

Further, their research shows that TARP investment amounts were positively related to banks’ political contributions and lobbying expenditures, and that, overall, the effect of political influence was strongest for poorly performing banks.

Hoocoodanode?

The process of bailing out the banks was an artifact of corruption and self-dealing.

H/t zero hedge

Here’s a Surprise

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Nearly flat for 2 years

One of the things that I have occasionally remarked on is how data for M3, one of the broader measures of money supply is no longer collected by the Fed.

The claim is that it’s a conspiracy to conceal the reckless and inflationary expansion of the money supply, but as Tim Iacono shows, it hasn’t really happened.

Basically, the Fed may be printing money, but banks are not lending, so the money supply, at least the money supply as described by the M3, is basically flat, so we are not in an inflationary situation.

To my mind, this is a bad thing, since, as I have stated many times before, increasing inflation will have the effect of moving the price many assets above the amount of money owed on them.

A description of the various measures of money, cut-and-pasted from the Wiki, is below the fold:

  • M0: Notes and coins (currency) in circulation and in bank vaults. In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, M0 includes bank reserves, so M0 is referred to as the monetary base, or narrow money.
  • MB: Equals M0 + reserves which commercial banks hold in their accounts with the central bank (minimum reserves and excess reserves). MB is referred to as the monetary base or total currency. This is the base from which other forms of money (like checking deposits, listed below) are created and is traditionally the most liquid measure of the money supply.
  • M1: M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Bank reserves are not included in M1.
  • M2: Equals M1 + savings deposits, time deposits less than $100,000 and money market deposit accounts for individuals. M2 represents money and “close substitutes” for money. M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions. M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.
  • M3: Equals M2 + large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, along with other larger liquid assets. M3 is no longer published or revealed to the public by the US central bank. However, it is estimated by the web site Shadow Government Statistics. It is also estimated on a weekly basis by the web site Now and the Future.
  • MZM: Money with zero maturity. This measure equals M2 plus all money market funds, minus time deposits. It measures the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand.

Franken Rape Amendment Becomes Law

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The 2010 Defense Authorization Bill was signed into law by Barack Obama about 2 weeks ago, and the bill included Al Franken’s prohibition on defense contractors using binding arbitration to keep things like the rape of their employees by their employees out of court.

Since it’s attached to an appropriations bill, it only runs for a year, so I would suggest a stand alone bill, timed to hit the floor in the June-July time frame to permanently close the loophole.

We’ll see how many ‘Phants want to vote pro-rape a few months prior to elections, particularly given the outrage over the pro-rape Republicans over Franken Amendment in the first place.

Army Issues Improved M4/M16 Magazine

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The tan follower is the new magazine, and will be phased in as the older green followers are phased out. The black follower is to be removed from service immediately.

How the longer legs stabilizes feeding

Basically, it uses a more robust follower and a stronger spring to improve reliability:

The Army has begun fielding the new 5.56mm 30 round Improved Magazine that delivers a significant increase in reliability for the battle-tested M16 and M4 weapons systems. Bolstering the already high reliability ratings of the M16/M4 systems, the Improved Magazine effectively reduces the risk of magazine-related stoppages by more than 50 percent compared to the older magazine variants. Identified by a tan-colored follower, over 500,000 of the improved magazines have been fielded to units in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the U.S.

“With the improved magazines, we’re taking weapons reliability up another notch,” said LTC Chris Lehner, Product Manager Individual Weapons. “By incorporating a heavier, more corrosion resistant spring, along with a new follower design that does not tilt inside the casing, our engineers were able to develop a magazine that presents a round to the weapon with even greater stability. Increased magazine reliability results in overall improved weapon system performance.”

Note, however, that this only reduces magazine related stoppages, and does not address the issues with the M4/M16’s sensitivity to grime, etc. and issues related to its gas tube operation.

Spotted: China flies air-launched cruise missile – The DEW Line

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Shown here on an H-6M Badger

The Chinese Military Aviation blog (bottom of page) has reported that the PLAAF has fielded a cruise missile, the CJ-10K, which is based on the ground launched CJ-10, which in turn derived some of its technology from the Russian KH-55.

It appears to be very similar in size to the Tomawhawk and the KH-55, which is no surprise, and its range is in the 1,500-2,500 km range, which makes it roughly equivalent to the Tomahawk.

It should be noted that the H-6M Badger is significantly improved, significant avionics upgrades as well as modern turbofans replacing its thirsty turbojets, which give it a range in the 3,000-3,500 km range, which would allow the aircraft/missile combination to strike Alaska without refueling, and air to air refueling, which the Chinese are now doing routinely might allow a strike against Hawaii as well.

At about 9,000 km, a strike on the mainland US well out of range,though much of Europe would be in range.

H/t The DEW Line

So Not a Surprise

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The New Economics Foundation has done a study on the economic impact of bankers, and claims to have shown that bankers actually destroy economic value:

Bankers should count themselves lucky they are being hit by a mere 50 per cent additional tax on bonuses, a new report argues today, because their benefit to society is negative.

The New Economics Foundation, a left-leaning think-tank, says that by contrast hospital cleaners and many other low-paid workers contribute far more to society and this should be reflected in their pay.

Although the NEF is far from an orthodox economic think-tank, its A Bit Rich report stems from standard public economics theory that the government should step in if people’s value to society is remarkably different from their private value to an employer. The government already steps in, taxing everyone to ensure many jobs with high social value happen where those services would not be provided otherwise.

………………

The authors assume the financial crisis and recession would not have happened without City bankers engaging in risky, opaque and complex transactions. Applying a guess about the cost of the recession on the rest of society, they estimate top City bankers destroy £7 of value for every £1 they are paid privately.

If the figures are accurate, a rational government should shut the City. Naturally, the City disagrees and so does the Treasury, which sees benefits in properly regulated activity in the Square Mile.

This is something that ordinary people get, which is why the AIG bonuses and their ilk so outraged them: The point is not that these people are uniquely skilled, the Alex Rodriguez’s of their craft, but rather that they are the “Marvelous” Marv Throneberry‘s of the world.

These people do not need to be retained, they need to be excised from the financial system.

It Was Drug Dealers Wot Saved the Banks.

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I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!

The head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime is now saying that it was money from the drug cartels that kept the banks nominally solvent during the financial crisis:

Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were “the only liquid investment capital” available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.

This will raise questions about crime’s influence on the economic system at times of crisis. It will also prompt further examination of the banking sector as world leaders, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, call for new International Monetary Fund regulations. Speaking from his office in Vienna, Costa said evidence that illegal money was being absorbed into the financial system was first drawn to his attention by intelligence agencies and prosecutors around 18 months ago. “In many instances, the money from drugs was the only liquid investment capital. In the second half of 2008, liquidity was the banking system’s main problem and hence liquid capital became an important factor,” he said.

There is no question: If a banker can launder drug money, and make money themselves from doing so, they will launder drug money.

Cue Captain Renault (see pic), and I do not expect any substantive law enforcement resulting from this revelation.

Another Nail in the Lead System Integrator Concept Coffin

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As I have said before, with the LSI model, you have the contractor supervising their own performance, which is almost literally a fox in the henhouse:

Defense contractors developing the Army’s largest modernization program — the Future Combat System — also were paid $91 million in 2007 to report back to the Pentagon on how well the program was performing, according to a new inspector general report, adding fuel to demands for tougher conflict-of-interest rules.

The Nov. 24 Defense Department inspector general report, reviewed by POLITICO, was sparked by an anonymous tip. The probe found that the $100 billion FCS program contained numerous conflicts that went unreported and that, between 1987 and 2007, the Pentagon increased its reliance on contractors for quality assurance and other tests by 375 percent.

……………

For instance, SAIC, a prime contractor doing systems engineering along with Boeing, received $2.2 billion for development of the FCS program, but in 2007 it also received $25.8 million for testing the program. Computer Sciences Corp., General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman also received money to create elements of the FCS at the same time they were helping to test it, according to the report.

(emphasis mine)

I worked with folks from the SAIC when I was at FCS, and got very little “L” from the LSIs: they simply did not provide direction to the contractors.

It’s no surprise that the inspector’s report was marked “For Official Use Only”, because the powers that be in the Pentagon want this buried, but someone, probably someone who actually thinks about the soldiers who use the product, leaked it.

Note that this is an artifact of a number of administrations:

In addition to pursuing specific allegations of conflicts of interest, the inspector’s report looked more broadly at the trend toward using services contracts for testing. The review found that before the 1990s — when the Pentagon embraced the trend of cutting government employees and instead contracting for services — the Pentagon spent about $8.9 million a year on contractors for testing. In 2007, it spent $42.6 million.

The Pentagon started doing this under Bush I SecDef Richard Bruce Cheney, though it is fair to say that it was expanded under Clinton, and went, as did defense procurement generally, completely haywire under Bush II.

The problem is that when you have contractors testing for you, they lie, they self-deal, and they cheat.

That’s capitalism, baby: Cheating is a profit opportunity.

Unfortunately, the capabilities that the government has shed over the past few years will take much longer, but if the development of new systems is curtailed until the internal governmental testing capabilities, it will result in a exodus of people in private testing, because their jobs will be gone, and return to government.

If She Were to Bear Keith Richard’s* Child

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It would be immortal, and might have super powers:

A Sturgis woman had a blood-alcohol level of .708 percent, possibly a state record, when she was found earlier this month behind the wheel of a stolen vehicle parked on Interstate 90, according to Meade County State’s Attorney Jesse Sondreal.

A South Dakota Highway Patrol trooper discovered Marguerite Engle, 45, on Dec. 1 passed out behind the wheel of a delivery truck reported stolen in Rapid City.

Her blood-alcohol level was almost nine times South Dakota’s legal limit of .08 percent.

Checks with local and state labs where blood-alcohol levels are tested suggest Engle’s reading may be the highest ever recorded in South Dakota, Sondreal said.

Sondreal said a state chemist recalled a sample that tested .53, but nothing higher, in his more than 30 years on the job.

By way of comparison, LD50 for alcohol, the number at which 50% of the subjects die, is 0.40% BAC.

*Richards’ abuse of a myriad of substances is legendary, and his continued survival therefore puzzling. This led the comic Bill Hicks to say that, “I picture nuclear war and two things surviving: Keith and cockroaches!“

Security Theater

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Bruce Schneier, once again, is all over it:

Our current response to terrorism is a form of “magical thinking.” It relies on the idea that we can somehow make ourselves safer by protecting against what the terrorists happened to do last time.

Unfortunately for politicians, the security measures that work are largely invisible. Such measures include enhancing the intelligence-gathering abilities of the secret services, hiring cultural experts and Arabic translators, building bridges with Islamic communities both nationally and internationally, funding police capabilities — both investigative arms to prevent terrorist attacks, and emergency communications systems for after attacks occur — and arresting terrorist plotters without media fanfare.

It’s very clear that many of the so-called security measures do not enhance security, but exist to create an appearance of security.

Just go read it.

Another Endorsement from Your’s Truly

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Marcy Winograd, who is running against Blue Dog Jane Harman in CA-36. I got an email from them, which means that they are hitting the “Q-list” blogs, which is a low cost high reward strategy.

After all, if you want someone’s support, sending an email is a virtually free way of asking them for it.

It should be noted she ran against Harman in 2006, and scored a respectable 37.5% of the vote, and Harman has actually improved as a result of that challenge.

It should be noted though that Harman ran in the 1998 Gubernatorial primary as being, “the best Republican in the Democratic Party,” so improvement is not difficult to achieve.

She is, and remains, a Blue Dog puke.

In any case, she is now on my Act Blue page, as well as having a direct donation page her web site.

Text of letter after break:

Marcy Winograd For Congress


Dear Friends,Marcy Winograd For Congress

If you’re like me, one of your hopes for 2010 is that our government accomplishes a great deal more than it did in 2009.

Frustration has become the norm. Yet as we close out the year, you have a very specific choice to make: Do you allow that frustration to become apathy or action?

Will you support the status quo or those that believe better decisions can and should be made in 2010?

Please help me end 2009, literally and figuratively, by donating to my June 2010 campaign against Blue Dog Democrat Jane Harman in CD 36.

I have been a community activist for decades, fighting for education funding, affordable access to health care, worker and consumer protections, and the environment.

Nothing, however, is more pressing than the issue of jobs. We can and must reinvest in America – converting an economy currently based on making war overseas into one that makes better schools, roads, bridges, railways, and new Green Industries at home.

As we come to the end of the year – you can take action right where you’re sitting by making a decision to end Jane Harman’s 12 year effort to become the Lieberman of the House, largely serving the interests of large corporations and military contractors.

Contribute before January 1 to elect a true Democrat – not one who proudly accepted the label of “best Republican in the Democratic party.”

As I campaign up and down the 36th congressional district (West LA to San Pedro), I hear the same question over and over: “How are you going create jobs?”

I tell people we must fight for a Green New Deal, modeled after the New Deal of the Great Depression.

There is 200-billion left over from TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) that we can use not to bail out corrupt banks – but for common good: the creation of a sustainable economy.

While some banks may be reticent to accept the TARP funds, the aerospace industry is not. Its association has explicitly asked for 6-billion in TARP to create new jobs.

We can immediately contract with regional aerospace companies, not to build more bombs, but to create jobs in the New Green Economy. We need their engineering know-how and skilled workforce to build rapid transit and develop solar and wind resources that will make us strong and energy independent.

Jane Harman has spent too many years lobbying for weapons contracts, failing to expand the reach of aerospace beyond a permanent war economy.

We have only until Thursday at midnight to show people sitting on the fence that 2010 can be very different.

Help elect a REAL Democrat – a teacher, an anti-war leader, an environmentalist – in California’s June 8, 2010, Democratic Party primary. Contribute before midnight Thursday.

With great thanks for your support,


Marcy Winograd

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