Category: Afghanistan

M4/M16 Problems

One of the things that I did not cover in my discussion of the firefight at Camp Keating was the performance of the weapons there.

Specifically, it appears that the M4s carbines and M249 “Minimi” SAWs started to fail over the course of the fight.

There are a number of links, but this release a draft report from the Combat Studies Institute seems to be the most definitive. (you can see other accounts , here, here, here, and here.

The big issue here is that there are reports of both the M4 and M249 failing as the engagement went forward.

Since both weapons were failing, with one (M4) having a short stroke gas-tube operation, and the other (M249) having a long stroke piston, it’s pretty clear that the method of operation of these weapons are directly responsible for these failures.

Here is what I think is the pertinent quote:

Stafford crawled back up to the protection of the southern post of the OP, where he watched Specialist Bogar put up a heroic defense, nearly single-handedly, with his SAW. Bogar placed it on top of the sandbags, notwithstanding as Stafford noted, “I’m just watching that boulder pop with rounds coming in.” Stafford was badly wounded and drifting in and out of consciousness, but he distinctly remembered, “Bogar had just set his SAW on top of the sandbags and he was just kind of spraying, going through SAW rounds pretty quick. I remember him, loading and spraying, loading and spraying.” At the Crow’s Nest, Specialist Ayers was also going cyclic with the M-240. Stafford also remembered being impressed at the volume of fire that Ayers was pouring out, “I could also hear the 240 going off above me in the Crow’s Nest, because Ayers was just ripping them apart. I could hear Rainey screaming at Ayers not to melt the barrel on the 240 and to control his fires.”

Specialist Bogar fired approximately six hundred rounds at a cyclic rate of fire from his SAW when that weapon became overheated, and eventually jammed the bolt forward. Specialist Stafford noted, “Bogar was still in our hole firing quite a bit. Then Bogar’s SAW jammed. Basically it just got way overheated, because he opened the feed tray cover and I remember him trying to get it open and it just looked like the bolt had welded itself inside the chamber. His barrel was just white hot.”

(emphasis mine)

While I think that “White Hot” is probably an exaggeration, I would think that weapons would fail with the barrel still “cherry” hot, but it appears that there was a lot of shooting going on and the weapons were getting very hot as a result, at which point things like cook-off of rounds, expansion of parts, etc. begin to be a factor.

I will note that the M249 is a weapon that fires from an open bolt, which means that you have to be pumping a lot of rounds down range to get it that hot, so fire discipline, as alluded to in exchange above regarding the M240, a 7.62mm belt machine gun that is essentially the M249’s big brother.

This may have been a situation where the weapons were simply fired beyond their design capabilities.

Part of the reason for this is that the weapons used by both had similar effective ranges.

The AK-47, because of its relative lack of accuracy, is really not effective beyond 200m, particularly in the hands of a typical insurgent, and the M4, with its short (14½”) barrel and relatively light round, lacks lethality beyond that range.

The M16, by contrast, with its longer barrel, would be able to place effective fire on the enemy at more than 300m.

Had the soldiers been using the M16, they would have been able to engage the enemy before the enemy could engage them, and it is not entirely clear to me (please, someone educate me) why the troops were issued a carbine in a non-urban area where engagement distances would likely be longer.

Additionally, it appears that the position was located primarily due to non-combat considerations, which made it less defensible than it should have been.

All of these contributed to a very intense firefight, and it appears that the intensity of the combat was a significant cause as to the failures of these weapons.

Simply put, a personal weapon, or a squad automatic weapon, are not designed to throw that many rounds down range in that short a time.

One question that is not addressed in this report, at least not in this early draft of the report, is whether fire discipline was maintained, or if the troops were reverting to “spray and pray”.

My guess is that fire discipline was maintained, at least to the degree that discipline is possible when you are being attacked by a heavily armed force that outnumbers you, but I have no direct military or combat experience to evaluate this.

That being said, I think that the M4 should be replaced. Most of the other modern western armies, the Germans excepted, have switched to a Bullpup design, and as such, they have longer barrels, and shorter overall lengths than the M4.

See the table below for a comparison:

Weapon Barrel Length Overall Length
M4 14.5 in 29.8 in (stock retracted)
Tavor T.A.R-21 18.1 in 28.5 in

Additionally, while there are advantages to gas tube operation, generally lighter weight and better accuracy because there are fewer moving parts, one consistent complaint about the AR-15 and its children is that the weapons require meticulous, almost obsessive cleaning.

I admire the breakthroughs that Eugene Stoner made when he created the weapon, and many of those innovations, the use of plastics and high-strength lightweight alloys, continue today, but I think that the use of the gas tube has been shown to be problematic.

That being said, I would favor moving to a new weapon, as opposed to something like the gas piston retrofit, as the existing weapon has problems that are inherent in the design (i.e. barrel length and overall length).

In my perfect world, the Army and Marines would purchase one of the Bullpups already in service, as opposed to developing a new weapon itself, but given the nature of defense procurement in the US, particularly the Army Ordinance’s rather parochial view towards foreign weapons, I think that this unlikely.

Note: I have never served, and I’ve never shot anything more substantial than a .22 short rifle for in a riflery class in summer camp, so if I am wrong, please tell me in the comments.

All I ask is some detail. Don’t tell me I’m an idiot, show me that I’m an idiot.

There is a Message to this Madness

OK, so we have some anonymous adviser to Barack Obama saying that people who want more substantive action on LGBT rights are a pajama clad left wing fringe:

For a sign of how seriously the White House does or doesn’t take this opposition, one adviser told me those bloggers need to take off the pajamas, get dressed, and realize that governing a closely divided country is complicated and difficult.

There are a lot of people out there who are claiming that this is not official White House policy, and it’s an anonymous source, and maybe John Harwood is flat out lying.

It’s clear from the discussions that Harwood is a turd: The idea that moving in a direction that a majority of the country supports is dangerous, and that Obama has to fear Letterman, Leno, and O’Brien is ludicrous. (see video)

That being said, he did not just make this up from thin air while on the air. Harwood is standing by his statement, but does now offer that perhaps it was more about the people who want us out of Afghanistan.

Barack Obama and his people have done a very good job at keeping some groups on the reservation, to the degree that Andrew Sullivan describes the Human Rights Campaign as having “Battered Wife Syndrome”, and Glenn Greenwald correctly describes the administrations dealings with liberal organizations, particularly in the case or Rahm Emanuel, as being liberal veal pen.

So, the question here is what is going on, and I think that Steve M at No More Mister Nice Blog nails it: this is a deliberate attempt to send out contradictory messages:

The deliberate muddying of the message was the message.

That’s what’s going on now. Obama reached out to the gay community — and yet he wants to be seen as not being tight with gays or the angrier lefties. So a friendly journalist leaked this remark — this deniable remark — which has since been, um, denied. And now the message is muddied. The mixed signals are meant, I think, to confuse supporters of gay rights and wavering but potentially Democratic-voting non-liberal voters (including non-white social conservatives) in, oh, say, New Jersey and Virginia.

What is going on here is that Obama’s staff is populated by old Clintonistas, and if there was a defining characteristic of the Clinton Administration, it can be summed up in three words, Sister Souljah Moment.

You see Republicans prove how macho they are they attack their opponents, but Democrats, particularly those who came to politics under Bill Clinton, prove how macho they are by attacking their allies. They make a fetish of it.

There are people in the Obama White House who are terrified at what might happen if people started to think that the administration supported civil rights, because that would likely mean that they would lose the white male vote in the south….Never mind, already lost…Lose the white evangelical vote….Never mind, the Republicans have that one locked down…Lose the white evangelical vote….Never mind, the Republicans have that one locked down…Lose the foaming at the mouth bigot vote….Never mind, the Republicans have that one locked down…Lose the voters who want to criminalize abortion….Never mind, the Republicans have that one locked down…

Gee, I’m beginning to sense a pattern, and I think that it means that there some really stupid folks playing politics in Obama’s white house.

Khe Sanh in Pashtun

Whatever those words are that apparently sound a lot like Camp Keating, the combat outpost where US troops were greatly outnumbered and besieged 5 days ago, resulting in 8 US fatalities, and well over 100 Taliban dead.

So, now, after the many words about the “casualties inflicted on the enemy,” the US Army is bugging out of the camp.

I do not mean in any way to diminish the bravery and the sacrifice of our troops, rather I am disparaging the leadership and competence of senior officers. The location of this forward base appears to have been an invitation to disaster.

This entire affair sounds like the Battle of Khe Sanh in miniature: It was a day, instead of months, and it was perhaps 500 combatants on both sides, as opposed to about 30,000 on both sides, but you have the siege, the asymmetric fight, the declaration of victory by the US military, and then the withdrawal from the position.

The echos of Khe Sanh are eerie.

When You Fire Someone, They Can Talk Freely

We already know that there are widespread and credible allegations of vote fraud in Afghanistan, and Peter Galbraith, the UN’s deputy special representative for Afghanistan, just got fired for arguing that there needs to be a broader inquiry into this matter.

You know that old saying about rather having someone in the tent, pissing out, rather than being outside the tent, pissing in? Well, now that he’s been given the sack, Mr. Galbraith is arguing publicly what he had been arguing privately:

A former senior United Nations diplomat in Kabul has made a scathing attack on the UN’s handling of Afghanistan’s disputed elections, claiming that almost one in three of the votes cast for president Hamid Karzai were fraudulent.

Peter Galbraith, the former deputy head of the UN mission in Afghanistan, singled out his former chief, Kai Eide, for criticism, saying he had deliberately played down the level of cheating in an election where, in one region, “10 times as many votes were recorded as voters actually cast”.
Jon Boone on claims of election fraud in Afghanistan Link to this audio

Galbraith was sacked last week, after his disagreements with Eide, a Norwegian diplomat in charge of the UN mission, about how to deal with electoral fraud became public. Galbraith said the extraordinary level of fraud in the August vote “has handed the Taliban its greatest strategic victory in eight years of fighting the United States and its Afghan partners”.

You can read his OP/Ed in the Washington Post here.

This is moment is analogous to Kennedy and Johnson’s moment following the assassination of Ngô Đình Diệm in Vietnam.

When they both signed off on the deed, they sealed the fate of South Vietnam, and made subsequent governments little more than widely detested US puppets.

Well, Barack Obama now has his Diệm moment, and it appears that he will fall as Kennedy and Johnson did.

The Problem is the ISI

So, the Taliban has exploded another car bomb in Kabul.

The target was, here is a shocker, the Indian embassy.

One of the elephants in the room in that part of the world is that the ISI, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, like much of the military and intelligence establishment in that nation, viewed everything through the lens of an eventual all out war with India, and as such has aided, abetted, and directed the Taliban as a client organization.

I’m beginning to think that direct action against certain actors within the ISI might well be warranted…I’m suggesting snatch and grabs, not a Hellfire strike at their headquarters in Islamabad.

Charlie Wilson Comes Out Against Charlie Wilson’s War, the Sequel

You remember Tom Hanks played him, and he allegedly the one who made the Soviet Union’s Afghan war so disastrous.

Well, now, 2 years off a heart transplant, he has something to say about our role in Afghanistan, get out now:

“We (screwed) up the end game,” Mr. Wilson said. “It would have been very easy and done for a minuscule amount of money. We should have done the basic things for a backward country that’s trying to come out of (a war) and have a reasonable hope of economic success.”

As President Obama considers whether to send tens of thousands of more troops to Afghanistan, Mr. Wilson worries that the war could become “another Vietnam.”

“It’s probably best to make a calculated withdrawl,” he said. “If I were the president, I’m not sure what I’d do. I’d probably shut it down, rather than lose a lot of soldiers and treasure.”

He says this as someone who knows as well as anyone just how fierce and tenacious the Afghan fighters are.

“I’d rather take on a chain saw,” Mr. Wilson said. “They’re the world’s best foot soldiers, best warriors. And they’re fearless.

“They’re fearless, and they’ve got nothing to lose. And they have a pretty serious hatred for those who try to occupy their country.”

In a nutshell he explains why Vietnam and Afghanistan are alike. If you are there, and you are an occupier, they will hate you.

Barack Obama should listen, but I think that instead he will listen to general officers who never learned the lesson of Vietnam.

As I have said many times, the US military believes that we lost because the American public turned against the war, when the reality is that the Vietnamese beat us (without winning a single battle, BTW), because nationalism creates unity and self sacrifice against the occupier.

Vote Fraud Discovered in Afghanistan


I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!
Shaded Regions Indicate Fraud

It appears that the level of vote fraud is so bad that even the Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), a group of Karzai toadies, has admitted to widespread vote fraud:

There was “clear and convincing evidence of fraud” in Paktika, Kandahar and Ghazni, areas that largely backed President Hamid Karzai, it said.

Earlier this week results from 600 stations where there were suspected irregularities were “quarantined”.

The ECC said in a statement that its investigations in Ghazni found “a number of indicators of fraud”.

Those included unfolded ballots, votes for candidates inserted inside bundles for other candidates, miscounted ballots, missing material, uniformity of markings, seal numbers which did not match numbers on the record of seals and lists of voters with numerous fictitious card numbers, the statement said.

All from Karzai strongholds. (Bottom pic, darker regions)

What a surprise.

Just How F%$#ing Stupid Does Hamid Karzai Think We Are?

So, the vote count in Afghanistan is done, and now Karzai has 54.1% of the vote, he was at about 48% at 70% of the vote, so the “late reporting precincts” had to deliver him something like 68%. (also here)

There are non existent polling places, polling places occupied by his supporters, etc.

Here is the money quote:

One Western official said that had the Afghan Independent Election Commission not decided on Monday to undo a decision it made the day before to enforce stricter safeguards, Mr. Karzai’s vote total would still be under 50 percent, forcing him into a second election against Mr. Abdullah.

The election commission had moved on Sunday to carry out precautions intended to catch a number of voting irregularities. But as it became clear that those safeguards would prevent Mr. Karzai from surpassing the 50 percent threshold, the decision was reversed Monday, and the election commission announced that it had no legal authority to exclude the ballots, the Western official said.

“He was below 50 percent when you exclude the obviously fraudulent votes,” said the official, who spoke anonymously according to diplomatic protocol.

This is actually an opportunity for Obama. Now he can tell the generals that he afraid to offend to get the hell out of Dodge. It’s what Kennedy should have done after Diem’s assassination.

If he does not use this to extricate himself from the “Graveyard of Empires,” he’s going to be Johnson in 1968 without the accomplishments of Johnson in 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, and 1967, and it won’t be pretty, because whatever Republican gets the nomination, you can be sure that they will not be as intelligent, welcoming, or honorable as Richard M. Nixon….I think that I just hurt something saying that last bit.

Afghanistan Data Point

There are now more Americans fighting in Afghanistan than the Soviets ever had in country.

There are now 120K soldiers and contractors there, as opposed to 115K by the Soviets at the peak of their war.

While you may not want to count all the contractors as “Americans fighting,” you also want to count the soldiers from the UK, Canada, Germany, France, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Australia, Romania, Poland, Estonia, Norway, Czech Republic, Latvia, Hungary, Portugal, South Korea, Sweden, Turkey, Belgium, Finland, and Lithuania.

This is a damn mess.

Another Milestone In the Annals of Stupid and Corrupt

Just when I think that Bush and His Evil Minions have left me so jaded that they can no longer shock me with their corruption and incompetence, I discover that not only did the CIA have assassination teams, but they outsourced these teams to Blackwater, USA (now Xe):

The Central Intelligence Agency in 2004 hired outside contractors from the private security contractor Blackwater USA as part of a secret program to locate and assassinate top operatives of Al Qaeda, according to current and former government officials.

Executives from Blackwater, which has generated controversy because of its aggressive tactics in Iraq, helped the spy agency with planning, training and surveillance. The C.I.A. spent several million dollars on the program, which did not successfully capture or kill any terrorist suspects.

This is not surprising. Blackwater’s mercenary division, Blackwater Security Consulting (BSC), was founded in 2002 with the obvious goal of cashing in on the paranoia bonanza post 911, and used that, along with the reputation earned by Eric Prince’s father as a reliable supporter of extreme right wing causes, to generate revenues.

Notwithstanding the caveat in the article:

It is unclear whether the C.I.A. had planned to use the contractors to actually capture or kill Qaeda operatives, or just to help with training and surveillance in the program. American spy agencies have in recent years outsourced some highly controversial work, including the interrogation of prisoners. But government officials said that bringing outsiders into a program with lethal authority raised deep concerns about accountability in covert operations.

I think that it’s more likely than not that there was a real intent by the CIA to hire outside contractors as hit-men.

If CIA paramilitary forces needed training, they could get that from any number of military organizations.

After all, as has been discovered in Iraq, Mercenaries are:

  • Not subject to US law.
  • Indemnified from the local law.
  • Not required to use the same reporting standards as government agents on either finance or notification.

So, the most incompetent and brutal of the mercenaries were chosen, probably on the basis of political payback for contributions and a shared Christo-Fascist world view, and the intent was to just turn them loose to kill people without the slightest indication of meaningful supervision.

Great googly moogly.

We need a special prosecutor now.

Marine Corps Downselects to 2 Unmanned Cargo helos

The Marine Corps is looking for a UAV cargo carrier that can handle the rigors of operation in Afghanistan, and the Boeing A-160T Hummingbird and the Kaman K-MAX. (paid subscription required)

The goal is to be able to carry 750-1000 lbs at a density altitude in excess of 12,000 feet.

Boeing probably has the edge on UAV operations, though Kaman’s partnership with Lockheed-Martin may close the gap on this, but the K-Max has a lot more in the way of flight hours under harsh conditions, both in firefighting and logging operations.

I lean toward Kaman, because with a twin main rotor design, it may handle better in high altitudes, like the Hindu Kush.

This is Wicked Stupid

It looks like the US Military is going to resume training the Georgian army.

Considering the fact that President Mikheil Saakashvili is a truly delusional and despotic nutcase who is spoiling for another war with Russia, this is a very bad idea on that level, but it’s also clear that the Georgian state security apparatus has been completely penetrated by the Russian intelligence service that they knew to the minute, if not the second, when the Georgians were going to invade South Ossetia.

But we need bodies for Afghanistan, so we’re training them.

Adventures in Aircraft Recognition

Remember my post a few hours ago regarding a photograph of a mystery aircraft photographed over Afghanistan?

I’m almost ready to call it a hoax.

To refresh your memory, here is the photo (top), and here is a photo of the LongEZ modified by the AFRL to test pulse detonation propulsion
mystery aircraft, and below it are three photographs the first one from Wiki, and the next two from Mojave Skies (I’ve mirrored and cropped them to more closely match match the orientation of the mystery pic).

The similarities, cranked wing, large boxy structure under the fuselage, location of the canopy, are all rather striking.

What is missing are the canards, wingtip rudders, and the pulse detonation tubes sticking out the back, but with photoshop/GIMP and some reduction in resolution, I think that the conclusion that it is a faked photograph may be higher on the list.

The aircraft only flew at the Mojave airport, and now sits at the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base outside of Dayton, Ohio, and it clearly never shared even the same hemisphere as Afghanistan.

(click pics for full size images)

Huh, My Bad

Actually, as lot of people’s “my bad”, because that picture I posted as a “mystery UAV”, was the wrong picture, as Stephen Trimble observes.

The previous photo was apparently the wrong one, and I posted it in error.

If this one is accurate, and it is almost as bad as the other one, It looks like a slightly cranked wing, and maybe a radome underneath, and a canopy, or maybe air intake above.

In any case, I’m confused, and have no clue as to what is in the air over Afghanistan.

What the Hell Are They Flying in Afghanistan?

OK, so we now have a picture to go along with the reports of a stealthy UAV operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

So, you have the grainy picture, and the artist’s conception.

The thing is, it doesn’t make any sense to use stealth in Afghanistan.

The Taliban does not have any air defense radars operating, so why work on a specialized stealth shape?

I can see aural stealth (noise), and IR stealth, and visual stealth, but using a radar avoiding platform where there is no radar just makes no sense.

[on edit]
I just came across the BAE Corax (Raven in Greek) as a possible answer.

It’s a British system, and it matches the general configuration, including the long wing, though the photo seems to show a lot more wing sweep.

Commander in Afghanistan Fired

This is odd, but General David McKiernan has been fired as commander in charge of the Afghan theater, and replaced by General Stanley McChrystal.

The claim is that McChrystal, with a special ops background, is better suited to the conflict, but this has unfolded very quickly.

Note that McChrystal is hip deep in the Pat Tillman friendly fire coverup, as well as allegations of torture in Iraq.

No clue as to what is going on here.

Because the Political Culture is That Dysfunctional

Matthew Yglesias wonders why we have to beg the government in Islamabad to take action against the Pakistani Taliban as opposed to their begging for help, when it is clear that they are an existential threat to their government.

First and foremost, I think that the level of threat is exaggerated, but more importantly, the political culture of Pakistan is amongst the most profoundly dysfunctional in the world.

It has much to do with its founding as a nation, which was not so much born in nationalism, but British colonial tactic.

Simply put, the British maintained control in many of their colonies, particularly in what is now India and Pakistan, was to encourage ethnic rivalries, and so as movements for autonomy, and later independence, grew in India, the British authorities encouraged Muslim leaders to agitate for a separate state, which they believed would make the independence less likely.

This was followed by the war over Kashmir in 1947-8, in which the British, particularly Mountbatten, continued to meddle in South Asian affairs.

When combined with the later wars, particularly the humiliation suffered in the Bangladeshi war of independence, it left the state security apparatus, particularly the ISI, focused on one goal: to win the next war against India, and secure all of Kashmir.

This is not going to happen. India and Pakistan both have something on the order of 50 combat militarized nuclear warheads, and as such a full out shooting war would result in horrific losses to India, and something very close to the complete elimination of the Pakistani state.

Even so, there remain elements in the military, and the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, that remain exclusively focused on the prospect of a final apocalyptic battle with India.

As such, they support extreme Muslim fundamentalists on both sides of the border with Afghanistan, even though these are the same people who are a threat to the stability of the state, because they believe that the conflict with India is the primary focus of the state, and that by supporting these the Taliban, they can minimize India’s influence in Afghanistan.

Personally, I think that it’s nuts, and a does much harm to Pakistan, but that is what the mind set is.